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26 November 2013 Jamaica Sustainable Energy Roadmap Jamaica Sustainable Energy Roadmap Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low-Emission Electricity System

Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

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Page 1: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

26 November 2013

Jamaica Sustainable Energy RoadmapJamaica Sustainable Energy Roadmap

Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable,

Low-Emission Electricity System

Page 2: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Project Summary• 2.5 year project funded by the German

Environment Ministry’s International Climate Initiative

• Assesses energy efficiency, renewable energy, and grid solutions

• Examines current policies and finance opportunities for fostering the growth of sustainable energy

• Makes recommendations to encourage sustainable energy development

Page 3: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Sustainable Energy Roadmap Goals

• Highlight the benefits and importance of increased

energy efficiency and renewable energy in Jamaica

• Build capacity among policymakers and stakeholders

to implement Roadmap recommendationsto implement Roadmap recommendations

• Facilitate closer collaboration between stakeholders

• Provide governments with the tools to make their

countries more attractive for renewable energy

investment

Page 4: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Policy Recommendations

Policy Recommendations

Technical Assessment

Energy Efficiency Potential

Renewable Energy Potential

Grid Solutions

Technical Assessment

Energy Efficiency Potential

Renewable Energy Potential

Grid Solutions Sustainable Energy

RoadmapRecommendations

Vision & Long-Term Goals

Concrete Policy Mechanisms

Governance & Administrative Efficiency

Recommendations

Vision & Long-Term Goals

Concrete Policy Mechanisms

Governance & Administrative EfficiencyFinancing

Options

Gap Analysis

International Support & Cooperation

Domestic Reform & Capacity Building

Financing Options

Gap Analysis

International Support & Cooperation

Domestic Reform & Capacity Building

Socio-Economic Analysis

Levelized Cost of Energy +

Energy Scenarios

Macroeconomic Effects

Socio-Economic Analysis

Levelized Cost of Energy +

Energy Scenarios

Macroeconomic Effects

Page 5: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Today’s Electricity System

Page 6: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Electricity Sales in JamaicaBy Sector, 2011

33%19%

2% 1%

Residential

Small commercial

20%

25%

Large commercial

Industrial

Street light

Other

Page 7: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Electricity in Jamaica

• No fossil fuel resources

– Dependent on imports

– Petroleum imports accounted for 96% of electricity

produced in 2009produced in 2009

• High percentage of GDP goes to oil imports

– Oil import costs were US$2.2 billion in 2011, or 15%

of GDP that year

– Costs peaked in 2008 at $2.7 billion, 19% of GDP

Page 8: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Energy Efficiency Potential

Page 9: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Barbados

Chile

Trinidad & Tobago

Venezuela3000

4000

5000

6000

annu

al k

Wh

per c

apita

con

sum

ptio

n

Energy Consumption vs. GDP

Argentina

Belize

Bolivia

Brazi l

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Domincan Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Haiti

Honduras

Jamaica

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

Uruguay

Regional Average

0

1000

2000

3000

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

annu

al k

Wh

per c

apita

con

sum

ptio

n

GDP per capita

Source: World Bank, EIA, Worldwatch Institute

Page 10: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Power Plant EfficiencyGeneration Technology & Owner (where applicable) Efficiency

(percent)

Jamaica Private Power Company Low-Speed Diesel 43.0

Jamaica Energy Partners Medium-Speed Diesel 41.9

Combined-cycle 40.7

JPS Low-Speed Diesel 37.4

Oil-Fired Steam 26.8

Gas Turbine 24.4

Page 11: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Households With Electrical Appliances

Appliance 1997 2006

Television 74.0 93.1

Refrigerator 69.6 82.0

Microwave Oven 6.9 34.6Microwave Oven 6.9 34.6

Washing Machine 6.4 23.1

Electric Stove 3.2 4.1

Electric Water Heater 2.9 6.4

Air Conditioner 1.7 3.0

Page 12: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

• Energy efficiency measures can result in significant cost savings over a short time frame.

• Jamaica’s petroleum power plants are highly inefficient

• Jamaica’s electricity grid has high transmission and distribution losses.

• Major reductions in Jamaica’s bauxite and alumina production—a sector with high energy consumption needs—played a significant role in reducing the country’s energy intensity

Key Findings: Energy Efficiency

energy intensity

• The hotel and tourism industry has high potential for achieving energy savings.

• The National Water Commission (NWC), Jamaica’s water and sanitation service provider, is the country’s single largest electricity consumer and faces prohibitive energy costs.

• Financing barriers continue to hinder implementation of cost-saving efficiency measures.

Page 13: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Renewable Energy Potential

Page 14: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Solar Energy Potential

Page 15: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Wind Energy Potential

Page 16: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Hydro Power PotentialLocation Potential Capacity (MW)

Great River 8.0

Martha Brae River 4.8

Back Rio Grande 3.9

Rio Grande 3.6

Yallahs River 2.6

Spanish River 2.5Spanish River 2.5

Wild Cane River 2.5

Morgan’s River 2.3

Green River 1.4

Negro River 1.0

Dry River 0.8

Total 33.4

Source: MSTEM

Page 17: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Waste-to-Energy Potential

Economic Viability Analysis for Waste-to Energy Facility

Annual Waste to Be Incinerated 109,500 tons per year

Annual Operating Cost USD 11.63 million

Annual energy sales to the grid (at USD USD 8.13 millionAnnual energy sales to the grid (at USD

0.1205 per kWh)

USD 8.13 million

Annual tipping fee (at USD 75 per ton) USD 8.21 million

Net Profit USD 4.71 million

Page 18: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Key Findings: Renewable Resources• The entire island’s electricity demand could be met with renewable resources.

• Distributed solar PV generation at the household and commercial level can play an

important role in Jamaica’s energy mix.

• Just 10 medium-sized wind farms could provide over half of the country’s current power

demand.

• Developing additional small hydropower capacity can provide cheap power to Jamaica’s • Developing additional small hydropower capacity can provide cheap power to Jamaica’s

electricity grid and energy access for remote locations.

•Improving the efficiency of Jamaica’s current biomass generation facilities and connecting

them to the grid could provide nearly 10% of the country’s electricity demand with

agricultural waste alone.

•A coherent national waste management strategy is necessary in order to harness the

significant public and private interest in waste-to-energy development.

Page 19: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Grid and Storage

Page 20: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Jamaica’s Current Electricity Grid

Page 21: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Typical Weekday Load Profile

Page 22: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Monthly Solar Variation

200

250

300

Av

era

ge

GH

I (W

/m

2) Soapberry

Wigton

PCJ

0

50

100

150

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Av

era

ge

GH

I (W

/m

2)

Month

PCJ

Montego Bay

Trade Winds

SRC

St. Ann's Bay

Germany

Page 23: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Daily Wind Variability

Page 24: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Key Findings: Grid & Storage

• Grid upgrades and expansion required under any scenario

• Distributed generation reduces grid losses

• Storage solutions can help meet demand at peak hours

• Strategic placement of renewable energy sources can further

reduce renewable intermittency issues

• Variability challenges can be minimized by upgrading the grid with

higher voltage transmission lines and improving operations and

forecasting.

Page 25: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Pathways to Meet Future Demand

Page 26: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

8000

10000

12000

14000

GW

h

Annual Demand Projection (GWh)

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

MW

Peak Demand Projection (MW)

OUR Demand Projection 2009- 2030

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

GW

h

Low Base High

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

MW

Low Base High

Page 27: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

800

1000

1200

1400

Loa

d (

MW

)

OUR Projected Load Profile in 2030

0

200

400

600

Loa

d (

MW

)

Hour

Page 28: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenarios For Energy TransitionScenario 1

Baseload Expansion: LNG

Scenario 2

Baseload Expansion: Coal

Scenario 3

Baseload Expansion: None

Renewable Share of

Installed Capacity

Renewable Share of

Installed Capacity

Renewable Share of

Installed Capacity

BAU 5% BAU 5% BAU 5%

1a 20% 2a 20% 3a 20%1a 20% 2a 20% 3a 20%

1b 30% 2b 30% 3b 30%

1c 50% 2c 50% 3c 50%

1d 70% 2d 70% 3d 70%

1e 94% 2e 81% 3e 94%

Page 29: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

20% Renewable

Energy

30% Renewable

Energy

50% Renewable

Energy

70% Renewable

Energy

94% Renewable

Energy

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Annual Demand & Generation - Scenario 1: RE/Gas

Scenario 1 Energy Demand & Generation

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

GW

h

Petroleum NG Petcoke Renewables Annual Power Demand

Page 30: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

800

1000

1200

1400

Loa

d (

MW

)

Electricity System in 2030 (50% Renewable Energy)

LNG Used as Expansion

Projected Energy Matrix in 2030

0

200

400

600

Loa

d (

MW

)

Hour

Oil (Capacity: 127MW) Natural Gas (Capacity: 622MW) Petcoke (Capacity: 100MW)

Bagasse (Capacity: 101MW) Hydro (Capacity: 75MW) Wind (Capacity: 644MW)

Solar (Capacity: 890MW) Load (MW)

Page 31: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

12001400160018002000220024002600

Loa

d (

MW

)

Electricity System in 2030 (94% Renewable Energy)

LNG Used as Expansion

Projected Energy Matrix in 2030

0200400600800

10001200

Loa

d (

MW

)

HourOil (Capacity: 127MW) Natural Gas (Capacity: 597MW) Petcoke (Capacity: 100MW)Bagasse (Capacity: 101MW) Hydro (Capacity: 75MW) Wind (Capacity: 1330MW)Solar (Capacity: 1900MW) Load (MW)

Page 32: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 1 Load Analysis w/ Storage

Excess RE Generation

Stored for Backup

Excess RE Generation

Stored for Backup

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

Loa

d (

MW

)

Electricity System in 2030 (94% Renewable Energy with Energy Storage)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Loa

d (

MW

)

Hour

Energy Storage Backup (Capacity: 500MW) Natural Gas (Capacity: 597MW)

Petcoke (Capacity: 100MW) Bagasse (Capacity: 101MW)

Hydro (Capacity: 75MW) Wind (Capacity: 1330MW)

Solar (Capacity: 1900MW) Load (MW)

Page 33: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 2 Energy Demand & Generation

20% Renewable

Energy

30% Renewable

Energy

50% Renewable

Energy

70% Renewable

Energy

81% Renewable

Energy

7000

8000

9000

10000

Annual Demand & Generation - Scenario 2: RE/Coal

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

GW

h

Petroleum Coal Petcoke Renewables Annual Power Demand

Page 34: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 2 Hourly Load Analysis

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Loa

d (

MW

)

Electricity System in 2030 (50% Renewable Energy)

Coal Used as Expansion

0

200

400

600

800

Loa

d (

MW

)

HourOil (Capacity: 430MW) Coal (Capacity: 627MW) Petcoke (Capacity: 100MW)

Bagasse (Capacity: 101MW) Hydro (Capacity: 75MW) Wind (Capacity: 644MW)

Solar (Capacity: 890MW) Load (MW)

Page 35: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 2 Hourly Load Analysis

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

Loa

d (

MW

)

Electricity System in 2030 (81% Renewable Energy)

Coal Used as Expansion

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Loa

d (

MW

)

Hour

Oil (Capacity: 430MW) Coal (Capacity: 422MW) Petcoke (Capacity: 100MW) Bagasse (Capacity: 101MW)

Hydro (Capacity: 75MW) Wind (Capacity: 1127MW) Solar (Capacity: 1602MW) Load (MW)

Page 36: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 2 Load Analysis w/ Storage

Excess RE Generation

Stored for Backup

Excess RE Generation

Stored for Backup

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

Loa

d (

MW

)

Electricity System in 2030 (81% Renewable Energy with Energy Storage)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Loa

d (

MW

)

HourEnergy Storage Backup (Capacity: 249MW) Coal (Capacity: 422MW)

Petcoke (Capacity: 100MW) Bagasse (Capacity: 101MW)

Hydro (Capacity: 75MW) Wind (Capacity: 1127MW)

Solar (Capacity: 1602MW) Load (MW)

Page 37: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 3 Energy Demand & Generation

20% Renewable

Energy

30% Renewable

Energy

50% Renewable

Energy

70% Renewable

Energy

93% Renewable

Energy

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Annual Demand & Generation - Scenario 3: RE/Oil

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

GW

h

Petroleum Renewables Annual Power Demand

Page 38: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Projected Energy Matrix in 2030

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Loa

d (

MW

)

Electricity System in 2030 (50% Renewable Energy) - Demand Not Served

With Existing Oil-Fired Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

Loa

d (

MW

)

Hour

Oil (Capacity: 573MW) Natural Gas (Capacity: 0MW) Petcoke (Capacity: 0MW) Bagasse (Capacity: 101MW)

Hydro (Capacity: 75MW) Wind (Capacity: 644MW) Solar (Capacity: 890MW) Load (MW)

Page 39: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

12001400160018002000220024002600

Loa

d (

MW

)

Electricity System in 2030 (93% Renewable Energy)

With Existing Oil-Fired Capacity

Projected Energy Matrix in 2030

0200400600800

100012001400

Loa

d (

MW

)

Hour

Oil (Capacity: 573MW) Natural Gas (Capacity: 0MW) Petcoke (Capacity: 0MW)Bagasse (Capacity: 101MW) Hydro (Capacity: 75MW) Wind (Capacity: 1314MW)Wind (Capacity: 1877MW) Load (MW)

Page 40: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Excess RE Generation

Stored for Backup

Excess RE Generation

Stored for Backup

12001400160018002000220024002600

Loa

d (

MW

)

Electricity System in 2030 (94% Renewable Energy with Energy Storage

Backup) – Oil

Scenario 3 With Energy Storage

0200400600800

10001200

Loa

d (

MW

)

HourEnergy Storage Backup (Capacity: 500MW) Oil (Capacity: 573MW)Natural Gas (Capacity: 0MW) Petcoke (Capacity: 100MW)Bagasse (Capacity: 101MW) Hydro (Capacity: 75MW)Wind (Capacity: 1314MW) Solar (Capacity: 1877MW)

Page 41: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Battery Cost Projection

Page 42: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Key Findings• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is

technically feasible. A renewable energy share of 50% by 2030 would merely cover new

demand but not replace existing conventional power.

• Natural gas and petroleum systems are better options than coal for transitioning to higher

shares of renewable energy.

• Investments in new coal plants will limit the amount of renewable energy the system can

integrate. integrate.

• Natural gas and oil-based generation plants are more flexible solutions, with fast ramp

times and lower minimum operating levels, allowing a smoother integration of larger

renewable energy shares.

• An accelerated renewable energy expansion might be in conflict with ensuring

profitability of newly built conventional power plants as their capacity rate significantly

reduces over time.

• Storage solutions can help renewable energy integration and reduce curtailment needs.

Page 43: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Socio-economic analysis

Page 44: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

LCOE Without Externalities

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

US

c/k

Wh

0

5

10

15

20US

c/k

Wh

Capital O&M Fuel

Page 45: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

LCOE With Externalities

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

US

c/k

Wh

0

5

10

15

20US

c/k

Wh

Capital O&M Fuel Cost Pollution Climate Change

Page 46: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

LCOE Projection to 2030

20

25

30

35

40

45

Usc

/kW

h

0

5

10

15

20

Usc

/kW

h

Page 47: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

LCOE Projection to 2030

15

20

25

US

c/k

Wh

Dummy Scenario 1: Natural

Gas

Scenerio 2: CoalScenario 3:

Oil

0

5

10

Bu

sin

ess

As

Usu

al

US

c/k

Wh

20

% R

en

ew

ab

le E

ne

rgy

30

% R

en

ew

ab

le E

ne

rgy

50

% R

en

ew

ab

le E

ne

rgy

70

% R

en

ew

ab

le E

ne

rgy

94

% R

en

ew

ab

le E

ne

rgy

20

% R

en

ew

ab

le E

ne

rgy

30

% R

en

ew

ab

le E

ne

rgy

50

% R

en

ew

ab

le E

ne

rgy

70

% R

en

ew

ab

le E

ne

rgy

81

% R

en

ew

ab

le E

ne

rgy

70

% R

en

ew

ab

le

En

erg

y

93

% R

en

ew

ab

le

En

erg

y

Page 48: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Fuel Cost & Savings

15000

20000

25000

Cumulative Fuel Costs &

Savings till 2030 - NG

15000

20000

25000

Cumulative Fuel Costs &

Savings till 2030 - Coal

15000

20000

25000

Cumulative Fuel Costs &

Savings till 2030 - Oil

0

5000

10000

Total Cost of Fuel

for Electricity

Generation

Total Savings in

Fuel Cost Over

Business As Usual

Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy

30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy

70% Renewable Energy 94% Renewable Energy

0

5000

10000

Total Cost of Fuel

for Electricity

Generation

Total Savings in

Fuel Cost Over

Business As Usual

Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy

30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy

70% Renewable Energy 81% Renewable Energy

0

5000

10000

Total Cost of Fuel

for Electricity

Generation

Total Savings in

Fuel Cost Over

Business As Usual

Business As Usual 70% Renewable Energy

93% Renewable Energy

Page 49: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 1 Savings from High RE Penetration

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

US

D (

In M

illi

on

s)

Cumulative Costs & Savings till 2030 - NG

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

Total Investment Required to

Meet Annual Demand

Total Cost of Electricity

Generation

Total Savings Over Business As

Usual

US

D (

In M

illi

on

s)

Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy 30% Renewable Energy

50% Renewable Energy 70% Renewable Energy 94% Renewable Energy

Page 50: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 2 Savings from High RE Penetration

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

US

D (

In M

illi

on

s)

Cumulative Costs & Savings till 2030 - Coal

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

Total Investment Required to

Meet Annual Demand

Total Cost of Electricity

Generation

Total Savings Over Business As

Usual

US

D (

In M

illi

on

s)

Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy 30% Renewable Energy

50% Renewable Energy 70% Renewable Energy 81% Renewable Energy

Page 51: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 3 Savings from High RE Penetration

20,000

25,000

30,000

US

D (

In M

illi

on

s)

Cumulative Costs & Savings till 2030 - Oil

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

Total Investment Required to

Meet Annual Demand

Total Cost of Electricity

Generation

Total Savings Over Business As

Usual

US

D (

In M

illi

on

s)

Business As Usual 70% Renewable Energy 93% Renewable Energy

Page 52: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 1 GHG Mitigation

75

100

125

150

Mil

lio

n t

on

s C

O2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions till 2030 - NG

-50

-25

0

25

50

Total Emissions From Electricity

Generation

Total Emissions Savings Over Business As

Usual

Mil

lio

n t

on

s C

O2

Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy70% Renewable Energy 94% Renewable Energy

Page 53: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 2 GHG Mitigation

50

75

100

125

150

Mil

lio

n t

on

s C

O2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions till 2030 - Coal

-50

-25

0

25

50

Total Emissions From Electricity Generation Total Emissions Savings Over Business As Usual

Mil

lio

n t

on

s C

O2

Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy 30% Renewable Energy

50% Renewable Energy 70% Renewable Energy 81% Renewable Energy

Page 54: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Scenario 3 GHG Mitigation

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mil

lio

n t

on

s C

O2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions till 2030 - Oil

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Emissions From Electricity Generation Total Emissions Savings Over Business As

Usual

Mil

lio

n t

on

s C

O2

Business As Usual 70% Renewable Energy 93% Renewable Energy

Page 55: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Key Findings: Socioeconomic Analysis• The cost of generation for renewable energy in Jamaica currently cost less

than 9.6 U.S. cents per kWh on average, which is 42% cheaper than the least-

cost fossil fuel generation option on the grid

• Integrating environmental costs in these cost assessments further

strengthens the argument to move away from a fossil-fuel based electricity

system

• Transitioning to an almost entirely renewable electricity system can decrease

the average cost of electricity in Jamaica by 67%, from 22 U.S. cents per kWh the average cost of electricity in Jamaica by 67%, from 22 U.S. cents per kWh

to 7 U.S. cents per kWh in 2030

• Higher shares of renewables require higher initial investments but reduce the

total cost of electricity generation in the long-run. Jamaica can save up to

USD 12.5 billion by investing in renewables, whereas BAU will cost the

country USD 29 billion to 2030, USD 23 billion of which is fuel costs alone

• With higher renewable shares, Jamaica can create up to 4,000 more jobs

than in the BAU scenario and decrease annual emissions in the electricity

sector by up to 5.2 million tons, to an estimated 0.7 million tons.

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Finance and Investments

Page 57: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Financing Sustainable Energy in Jamaica: RE and EE Credit Lines

Credit Line Total Fund Amount Maximum Loan

Amount

Interest Rate Repayment Period

PetroCaribe Energy

Fund

Varies between J$500

million to J$1 billion

(USD 6–12 million)

J$30 million

(USD 340,000)

5% rate charged to

AFIs; 8% maximum rate

to borrower (on the

Jamaican dollar)

7 years; 1-year

moratorium on principal

payments

World Bank line USD 4–6 million J$30 million (USD 2.75% to AFI, maximum 10 years; 4-year

340,000); can be lent in

either USD or J$

5.75% to borrower

(USD); 4.5% to AFI,

maximum 7.5% to

borrower (J$)

moratorium on principal

payments

DBJ regular funds Varies No limit 6.5% to AFI, maximum

9.5% to borrower (J$)

10 years; 4-year

moratorium on principal

payments

PetroCaribe Varies USD 3 million 4.25% to AFI, maximum

7.25% to borrower (J$)

Information not

available at publishing

Residential energy

investments

Varies J$2 million

(USD 23,000)

6.5% to AFI, maximum

9.5% to borrower (J$)

8 years

Page 58: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

International Finance Streams

Government and Multilateral

Organizations

• World Bank

• International Monetary Fund (IMF)

• Inter-American Development Bank

Climate Finance

• Clean Development

Mechanism (CDM)

• The Global Environment • Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)

• Caribbean Development Bank (CDB)

• United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

• U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)

• Organization of American States (OAS)

• U.S. Trade and Development Agency

• The Global Environment

Facility (GEF)

• Nationally Appropriate

Mitigation Actions

(NAMAs)

Page 59: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Key Findings: Finance and Investments• High interest rates and the lack of long-term loans pose a major barrier.

• DBJ provides energy credit lines and low-interest loans for sustainable energy projects,

especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.

• Banks are becoming more familiar with Jamaica’s growing renewable energy market and

domestic financial capabilities are increasing for EE and RE.

• The risk perception and capacity building needs are still impediments to widespread

domestic financing; mechanisms such as loan guarantees can provide a more stable

investment climate.

• Bilateral and multilateral agencies are focusing more on sustainable energy. Climate

financing can provide major support for Jamaica’s sustainable energy transition.

• More effective policy and regulatory mechanisms can address investment barriers.

Page 60: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Recommendations:Sustainable Energy Finance

• IMF acknowledged the important role of favorable EE and RE policies in strengthening Jamaica’s overall financial situation.

• Education and outreach is needed to inform developers about developments such as lowered interest rates.

• International finance is key to sustainable energy development, • International finance is key to sustainable energy development, especially for large-scale projects.

• Reducing bureaucratic hurdles and instituting risk-management measures such as loan guarantees will be essential for attracting international finance.

• International assistance can support both individual projects and implementation of sustainable energy policies.

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Policy Assessment & Recommendations

Page 62: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Three Necessary Ingredients

Page 63: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Long-Term Vision• The National Energy Policy can be strengthened:

• Sector-specific RE targets for electricity, transportation, etc.

• Set an electricity-specific target of at least 30% of total generation by 2030

(a 30% RE share of primary energy would require a RE electricity target of

over 80%)*over 80%)*

• Various plans continue to prioritize fossil fuel energy sources:

• MSTEM diversification plans

• OUR’s 2010 Expansion Plan

• PIOJ’s Vision 2030 Plan

• Jamaica’s 2nd Communication to the UNFCCC

• Unified messaging is needed to signal policymakers and investors

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Administrative Structure &

Governance• Streamline RE capacity permitting • Grid connection is often longest and

costliest. MSTEM and OUR should

guarantee grid access for RE

installations

• Strengthen existing efforts to guide

financing institutions and energy

developers (e.g. DBJ’s Environmental developers (e.g. DBJ’s Environmental

Management Framework)

• Aim to develop a single administrative

window for RE development

• Strengthen the Jamaica Energy Council

• Support MSTEM’s efforts to take on

electricity planning and procurement

Permitting Process for Small Hydro Capacity (100kW to 25 MW)

© Worldwatch Institute

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Energy Efficiency Policies

Energy Efficiency

• Implement baseline efficiency standards and high-efficiency performance incentives for

high-impact appliances beyond refrigerators and freezers and bauxite/alumina

equipment

Tax Exemptions:

• General consumption tax exemptions apply broadly to EE and solar technologies

• Jamaica’s investment and export promotion agency (JAMPRO) implemented tax credits • Jamaica’s investment and export promotion agency (JAMPRO) implemented tax credits

for RE projects and accelerated depreciation benefits

• Extend import duty reductions and exemptions to high-efficiency equipment

Reduce Technical Grid Losses and Electricity Theft:

• At the end of 2011, JPS had installed 4000 smart meters (30-40% of electricity sales) and

10,000 automated meters, and strengthened its auditing efforts

• The successful Residential Automated Metering Infrastructure (RAMI) pilot project

should be improved and expanded

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Policies to Harness Sustainable Energy:

Concrete Policies & MeasuresRenewable Energy

• MSTEM awarded first 11 five-year net billing

license contracts in 2012, but so far only 2

customers have connected to the grid

• Cost barriers and low net billing ratesOther Recommendations:

• Approve the Modernize

Electricity Act

• If the RFP generates significant

© Worldwatch Institute

Application process for renewable self-generation net billing

• If the RFP generates significant

interest, consider continued

tendering to achieve RE capacity

additions

• Feed-in-tariffs

• Loan guarantees for large-scale

sustainable energy investments

Page 67: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Key Findings: Policy Assessments

• The largest barriers to achieving a sustainable energy transition in Jamaica can be

overcome through smart policies

• National targets for EE and RE should be strengthened and embraced across all agencies

• The role of the Jamaica Energy Council should be strengthened and participation

expanded to all relevant Ministries

• OUR’s mandate to ensure affordable electricity prices from diverse energy sources must • OUR’s mandate to ensure affordable electricity prices from diverse energy sources must

be strongly enforced

• Transferring electricity planning and procurement from OUR to MSTEM would facilitate

greater RE deployment

• Existing policies to promote RE (net billing, electricity wheeling, and a request for

proposals for renewable capacity) should be implemented to their fullest potential

• Policies like net metering and renewable feed-in-tariffs provide additional future options

for Jamaica

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Conclusions & Next steps

Page 69: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Next StepsConduct Additional Technical Assessments < 1 Yr. 1–2 Yrs. 3–5 Yrs.

Assess energy and cost savings potential of bauxite/alumina efficiency standards ●

Conduct sector-wide efficiency study for hotel/tourism industry to

demonstrate cost savings

Determine key appliances for new/upgraded efficiency standards ●

Conduct feasibility assessments for utility-scale solar PV farms ● ●

Conclude Wigton site-specific wind resource and feasibility assessments,

including variability data

including variability data

Conduct up-to-date small hydro resource and feasibility assessments ● ●

Conduct thorough resource and environmental assessment of biogas vs.

direct combustion waste-to-energy

Conduct grid connection feasibility and cost assessments for solar, wind,

and small hydro sites

● ●

Conclude World Bank grid assessment; include feasibility and cost

assessment for connecting and integrating distributed and variable

renewable generation

Conduct site feasibility assessments for pumped hydro storage ● ●

Page 70: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Next StepsStrengthen Socioeconomic Data Availability < 1 Yr. 1–2 Yrs. 3–5 Yrs.

Centralize Jamaica-specific renewable energy job

creation data

Assess gender inequities with regard to access to

sustainable energy wealth and job creation opportunities

in Jamaica

Strengthen Financial Institutions < 1 Yr. 1–2 Yrs. 3–5 Yrs.Strengthen Financial Institutions < 1 Yr. 1–2 Yrs. 3–5 Yrs.

Continue and expand education campaigns to improve

risk perception for sustainable energy investment

● ● ●

Establish sovereign guarantee for sustainable energy

loans with support from development institution

Establish national strategy for accessing climate finance,

including through Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

● ●

Page 71: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Next StepsImplement a Strong Policy Framework < 1 Yr. 1–2 Yrs. 3–5 Yrs.

Focus Jamaica's energy strategy on renewable energy; coal and

natural gas should be secondary

Establish stronger, sector-specific renewable energy targets●

Strengthen the role of the Jamaica Energy Council in fostering

inter-ministerial cooperation for sustainable energy

Enforce OUR's mandate to ensure affordable electricity from

renewable sources

● ● ●

Pass legislation to grant MSTEM authority over electricity

capacity planning and procurement

Streamline permitting procedures for renewable energy projects ● ●

Implement energy efficiency building standards●

Page 72: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Next Steps

Implement a Strong Policy Framework (continued) < 1 Yr. 1–2 Yrs. 3–5 Yrs.

Pass new appliance efficiency standards●

Expand electricity theft audits and automated meter installations

● ● ●

Ensure full participation in net billing and electricity wheeling

programs

programs

Implement renewable capacity request for proposals in a timely,

efficient manner

Establish mechanisms for future renewable capacity

procurement, possibly through net metering and feed-in tariffs

Guarantee grid connection and priority grid access for renewable

capacity

Page 73: Pathways to an Affordable, Reliable, Low ......• An electricity sector based on a share of more than 90% renewable energy by 2030 is technically feasible. A renewable energy share

Thank You!!Thank You!!

Alexander Ochs

Director of Climate and Energy

[email protected]

Mark Konold

Caribbean Program Manager

[email protected]