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© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape1 ‒
PATH FORWARD WEBINAR HOST
• Launched career in sales & brand management
• Since the late 80s involved in the marketing research and information business
• Very involved with the Marketing community via CMA/ACA/CMDC
• Frequent public speaker, conference moderator & facilitator
• Currently craving a juicy burger & fresh fries from Holy Chucks.
TODAY’S SPEAKER
Steve LevyIpsos Canada
Asad AminVice President, Market Strategy & Understanding
• 20 years of supplier side research experience
• Wealth of expertise in the development & management of large syndicated studies, brand health trackers and advertising creative assessment.
• Most recently spoke at the Restaurants Canada Show Leadership Conference in March 2020.
• A devout foodie, with some of the best restaurant recos in town
The New Foodservice Landscape
THE PATH FORWARD
Asad Amin, Vice President, Market Strategy & Understanding29 April, 2020
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
MERCURY ESPRESSO
TROPICALJOE’S
AVLINGBREWERY
POOR ROMEO
ED’S REALSCOOP
3 ‒
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape4 ‒
RESTAURANTS ARE ON THE EDGE OF A PRECIPICE
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor April 2020
35.6 35.0 34.5 35.838.9
34.736.6 35.2
40.7
36.4 35.0
29.0
22.5
26.2
20.5
15.017.0
Dec 29 -Jan 4
Jan 5-11
Jan 12-18
Jan 19-25
Jan 26 -Feb 1
Feb 2-8
Feb 9-15
Feb 16-22
Feb 23-29
Mar 1-7
Mar 8-14
Mar 15-21
Mar 22-28
Mar 29 -Apr 4
Apr 5 -11
Apr 12 -18
Apr 19 -25
Foodservice Incidence
Mar 12ON School Closures
Mar 13ON + WestLimit Travel
+ Events
Mar 17State of
Emergencies
Mar 23ON + PQ
Close Non-Essential Business
WEEKLY FOODSERVICE INCIDENCE% INDIVIDUALS – TOTAL POPULATION
An ongoing daily tracking of what individual consumers ate and drank sourced from foodservice yesterday.
FSM links consumer needs with consumer behaviour to offer subscribers a 360 degree look at the commercial foodservice experience in Canada.
FAB New Reality Reports
Path Forward Behaviour Tracker
5 ‒ © Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
Average Annual Counts
36,500 individual completes
46,400 occasions captured
118,600 Menu Items Consumed
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape6 ‒
MARCH FOODSERVICE DECLINES
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020 vs. YoY
Foodservice Dollars Mar 2020
-47%-$2.6 billion
Foodservice Traffic Mar 2020
-39%-439 million individuals
QUICK SERVICE
-32%FULL
SERVICE
-67%RETAIL & OTHER
-47%
DO
LLAR
% C
HAN
GE
7 ‒
Source: Restaurants Canada Operations Report 2019
4.3%QSR
3.8%FSR
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
CANADIAN FOODSERVICE PROFIT MARGINS
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape10 ‒
GLOBAL SEARCH TRENDS FOR ‘RESTAURANT’
Source: Google Trends
0
20
40
60
80
100
4/28/2019 10/23/2019 4/18/2020
CANADA
0
20
40
60
80
100
4/28/2019 10/23/2019 4/18/2020
SOUTH KOREA
0
20
40
60
80
100
4/28/2019 10/23/2019 4/18/2020
CHINA
0
20
40
60
80
100
4/28/2019 10/23/2019 4/18/2020
HONG KONG
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
NEW ZEALANDERS RUSH FOR FAST FOOD AND COFFEE
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
WHILE A CONSIDERABLE SHARE OF CANADIANS REMAIN UNDERSTANDABLY CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE FUTURE, IT’S CERTAINLY NOT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM
48% 58%
OPTIMISTICOnce the crisis ends I
will enjoy life more than every
CAUTIOUSOnce the crisis ends I will be more cautious
with my activities
12 ‒
Sources: Ipsos Path Forward COVID-19 Behavior Tracker Wave 2 Apr 14-20, 2020, N=1,000Q. Below are a number of behaviours and attitudes that people could have as a result of the Covid-19 health crisis. For each of the statements below, please indicate whether you agree or disagree. % in Circles Based on Top 2 Box
CONSUMER OPTIMISM SCALE
48% 58%
OPTIMISTICOnce the crisis ends I
will enjoy life more than every
CAUTIOUSOnce the crisis ends I will be more cautious
with my activities
18% 28%
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICI will enjoy my life
more than every andwill be more cautious
with my activities moving forward
EXTREMELY OPTIMISTIC
I will enjoy life more than ever and I will
not be more cautious with my activities
EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS
I will be more cautious with my activities and
I will not enjoy life more than ever
30%
13 ‒
WHAT IS YOUR OFF-PREMISE STRATEGY?
13 ‒ © Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
62%OFF-PREMISE
38%ON-PREMISE
+9%5 Yr Traffic Share Growth
-9%5 Yr Traffic Share Drop
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor 12ME Feb 2020
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape14 ‒
THE NEW FOODSERVICE LANDSCAPE
FIRST HALF MARCH 2020SECOND HALF MARCH 2020
45%TAKE OUT
32%DINE IN
19%DRIVE THRU
4%
DELIVERY
50%TAKE OUT
33%DRIVE THRU
9%DELIVERY
8%DINE IN
CHANNEL ORDERED% TRAFFIC – TOTAL FOODSERVICE
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
SHIFT BACK TO TRADITIONAL ORDERING METHOD
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020
25%
38%
36%41%
29%
30%
15 ‒
FIRST HALF MARCH 2020
SECOND HALF MARCH 2020
OFF PREMISE ORDER METHOD% TRAFFIC – TOTAL FOODSERVICE
TELEPHONE ONLINE MOBILE
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
18%
8%
27%
17%
22%
9%
18%
8%
24%
18%
25%
7%
Breakfast Morning Snack Lunch Afternoon Snack Dinner Evening Snack
FIRST HALF MARCH 2020
SECOND HALF MARCH 2020
16 ‒
LIMITED CHANGE IN DAYPART DYNAMICS
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020
DAYPART DISTRIBUTION% TRAFFIC – TOTAL FOODSERVICE
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape17 ‒
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor 12ME Feb 2020
UNIQUE OFF-PREMISE DRIVERSTotal Foodservice
18 ‒
Over-Developed Drivers vs. other Off-Premise OccasionsSource: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
UNIQUE DRIVERS FOR TAKE OUT
Treat Myself
Satisfies/Fulfills Craving
Convenient Location/Easy Access
Eaten Quickly
Take a Break
Keep Me Going Until Next Meal
Lack of Food at Home
Complete My Meal
SEEK TAKE OUT FOR A TREAT AND A CHANGE FROM THE NORM
CRAVINGQUICK
BREAKNO FOOD
19 ‒ © Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
BEYOND ROUTINE, SOCIAL DYNAMIC NOW EXISTS
UNIQUE DRIVERS FOR DRIVE THRUPortable/To GoPicks Me Up/Gets Me Through the DaySatisfies ThirstReliable/Uncomplicated/ConsistentEnergy BoostHelps me Focus/ThinkWanted Something HotWide Variety of BeveragesBond with Family/Close FriendsHelps Relieve BoredomOpen Late/24 Hours
PORTABILITYMENTAL UPLIFT
HABITBEVERAGES
SOCIALOver-Developed Drivers vs. other Off-Premise OccasionsSource: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020
20 ‒ © Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
DELIVERY SATISFIES A MULTITUDE OF NEEDS
UNIQUE DRIVERS FOR DELIVERY
Unwind and Relax
Fresh/High Quality/Locally Sourced
Guilty Pleasure
Alleviate Pressure of Cooking/Planning Meal
Menu with Good Value Options
Customize to my Preference
Food I Feel Good about Eating
Relieves Stress/Anxiety
Highly Enjoyable Experience
RELAXQUALITY
PLEASURESTRESS RELIEF
VALUE OFFERCUSTOMIZE
Over-Developed Drivers vs. other Off-Premise OccasionsSource: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape21 ‒
Entrees
Sides
AppetizersBakery/Dessert
Beverages
TOP GROWING ITEMS
TOP DECLINING ITEMS
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape22 ‒ © Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
32%CANNABISC
onsu
min
g M
ore
32%ALCOHOLC
onsu
min
g M
ore
Sources: Ipsos Path Forward COVID-19 Behavior Tracker Wave 2 Apr 14-20, 2020, N=1,000
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape23 ‒
WHAT IS THE PATH FORWARD IN THE CURRENT FOODSERVICE LANDSCAPE?
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
TOTAL FOODSERVICE SALES FORECAST
24 ‒
SCENARIO 1: AN L-CURVE
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Forecasting Model Based on Data to Mar 2020
January 2020
February 2020
March 2020
April 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020
September 2020
October 2020
November2020
December2020
Estimate a -44% YoY Contraction
Actual Sales
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
Actual Sales
TOTAL FOODSERVICE SALES FORECAST
25 ‒
SCENARIO 2: A W-CURVE
January 2020
February 2020
March 2020
April 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020
September 2020
October 2020
November2020
December2020
Estimate a -37% YoY Contraction
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Forecasting Model Based on Data to Mar 2020
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
Actual Sales
TOTAL FOODSERVICE SALES FORECAST
26 ‒
SCENARIO 3: A U-CURVE
January 2020
February 2020
March 2020
April 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020
September 2020
October 2020
November2020
December2020
Estimate a -26% YoY Contraction
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Forecasting Model Based on Data to Mar 2020
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
THE PATH FORWARD1. SAFETY
2. VALUE
3. SOCIAL
4. PIVOT
5. COMPASSION
27 ‒
SAFETY
62%Restaurants Taking Precautions
28 ‒ © Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
Source: Ipsos Path Forward COVID-19 Behavior Tracker Wave 2 Apr 14-20, 2020, N=1,000
29 ‒ © Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
VALUE
24%Dealing
Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
SOCIAL
17%Virtual Happy Hour
30 ‒ © Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
Source: Ipsos Path Forward COVID-19 Behavior Tracker Wave 2 Apr 14-20, 2020, N=1,000
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape31 ‒
PIVOT
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape32 ‒
COMPASSION
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape
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