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This technical memorandum documents the analysis of freight and intermodal systems developed as part of the Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan. The plan was prepared by the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization.
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Technical Memorandum #5 Freight and Intermodal Systems
February 3, 2015
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE MOVEMENT OF GOODS THROUGH OUR PORTS, ON OUR RAILS AND ON OUR ROADS AREANTICIPATED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY. EFFICIENT AND RELIABLE ACCESS TO THE RAIL FACILITIESAND PORTS ARE CRITICAL FOR OUR REGION’S ABILITY TO COMPETE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.
Our region is located at the confluence of three major railroads (Norfolk Southern, CSX and Florida East Coast (FEC)) and two major interstate facilities (I-10 and I-95). North Florida includes major port facilities at Blount Island, Dames Point Talleyrand and Fernandina, an international airport, and a spaceport facility at Cecil Commerce Center. More than 200 million persons or 63% of the U.S. population is easily served by rail and 63 million persons or 20% of the population is reachable in one day by truck. We serve as the gateway to Florida’s 19.5 million residents. These unique transportation market service areas solidify our region’s position as America’s Logistic Center.
Florida’s strong economic outlook and population growth make this market one of the fastest growing in the US. These markets demand and the shippers that serve them expect highly reliable and efficient transportation services for our region to maintain our competitiveness in the global economy.
The movement of goods on our rails and roads are anticipated to grow significantly. This growth will contribute to significant increases in highway road congestion. Efficient and reliable access to the rail facilities and ports are critical for our region’s ability to compete in the global economy. To relieve this congestion and provide for more efficient movement of freight and intermodal container movements, investments in freight-related projects are needed.
The following major freight and intermodal project needs were identified through various planning efforts of the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization (TPO), Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT), Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT), Ocean Highway and Port Authority (Port of Fernandina) and the Jacksonville Aviation Authority.
Mile Point Navigation Improvements Jacksonville Harbor Deepening Rail capacity projects for CSX, Norfolk Southern and FEC Intermodal Yard Improvements and access for CSX, Norfolk Southern and FEC North Area/Jacksonville Rail Corridor Port access improvements at the Port of Fernandina
The total cost of the needs is $3.4 billion (in present day costs). In addition to these needs, future needs that were identified based on the market demand analysis include:
The need for additional rail intermodal facility capacity beyond the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility (ICTF) atDames Point. Currently the FEC’s and Norfolk Southern’s regional intermodal facilities are operating near practicalcapacity. About 1 million intermodal container twenty-foot equivalency units or (TEUs) are being shipped in NorthFlorida today. This market is anticipated to grow to 2.8 to 4.3 million TEUs by the year 2040. Additional intermodalfacility capacity is needed to meet this demand. One potential solution to meet this need is the development of apublic-private partnership for a joint-use intermodal facility.
Additional track improvement projects beyond the adopted needs plan may be needed. The planned operation ofcommuter rail, and potentially intercity passenger rail service by Amtrak or a private operator, will place increaseddemand on the rail track operational capacity within the region. Several system bottlenecks are likely to restrict theability to meet the rail service demand. These include the Springfield Switch, FEC Rail Crossing of the St. Johns Riverand the Crawford Diamond crossing of CSX and Norfolk Southern. Additional rail operational modeling is needed forthe region to identify other bottlenecks and recommend specific solutions to address these needs.
i
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................................. III
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................... III
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 1
CURRENT SITUATION ....................................................................................................................................................... 2
MULTIMODAL FREIGHT NETWORK ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Highways ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Rail ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Ports ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Aviation ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Support Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................................................... 7
CURRENT FREIGHT MOVEMENTS ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 Trucking ............................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Ports ................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Rail ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Air Cargo ............................................................................................................................................................................ 11
TOP COMMODITIES TYPES ............................................................................................................................................................ 12
FUTURE FREIGHT DEMAND ............................................................................................................................................ 27
INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................................................... 27 FORECASTING METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................................................... 27 PORT INTERMODAL ..................................................................................................................................................................... 29 RAIL ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Rail Intermodal .................................................................................................................................................................. 33 Rail Carload ........................................................................................................................................................................ 36
TRUCK INTERMODAL FORECASTS .................................................................................................................................................... 36 Truck Trips and Volumes .................................................................................................................................................... 36 Growth Rates ..................................................................................................................................................................... 36
AIR CARGO ................................................................................................................................................................................ 37 DEMAND VS. CAPACITY ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................. 37
Intermodal Facilities ........................................................................................................................................................... 37 Track Capacity .................................................................................................................................................................... 43
TRUCK MODEL IN THE NERPM-AB .................................................................................................................................. 45
FREIGHT NEEDS ............................................................................................................................................................. 48
ADOPTED NEEDS PLAN ................................................................................................................................................................ 48 ADDITIONAL NEEDS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 48 FUTURE SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT CONCEPT – A REGIONAL INTERMODAL FACILITY .................................................................................... 52
SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................................................... 53
ii
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - Multimodal Freight Network ......................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2 - SIS Connectors ............................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 3 - Warehousing, Industrial and Distribution Facilities ....................................................................................... 8 Figure 4 - Top Commodity Imports .............................................................................................................................. 13 Figure 5 - Top 12 Commodity Exports ......................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 6 – Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Truck ......................................................................................... 15 Figure 7 - Top Commodities Inbound Rail Shipments by Carload................................................................................ 16 Figure 8 - Top Commodities Inbound Rail Shipments by Intermodal Container ......................................................... 17 Figure 9 –Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Air .............................................................................................. 18 Figure 10 - Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Port .......................................................................................... 19 Figure 11 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Truck ..................................................................................... 20 Figure 12 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Rail Carload ........................................................................... 21 Figure 13 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Rail Intermodal ..................................................................... 22 Figure 14 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Air ......................................................................................... 23 Figure 15 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Port ....................................................................................... 24 Figure 16 - Summary of GDP Forecasts ....................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 17 - Moderate and Aggressive TEU Port Forecast ............................................................................................ 30 Figure 18 - Summary of 2040 Moderate Forecast of Port Intermodal Shipments (TEUs) ........................................... 31 Figure 19 - Summary of 2040 Aggressive Forecast of Port Intermodal Shipments (TEUs) .......................................... 32 Figure 20 - 2040 Moderate Forecast of Rail Intermodal .............................................................................................. 34 Figure 21 - 2040 Aggressive Forecast of Rail Intermodal ............................................................................................. 35 Figure 22 - Demand Capacity Analysis for Intermodal Facilities .................................................................................. 38 Figure 23 - Rail System Bottlenecks ............................................................................................................................. 44 Figure 24 - 2010 Truck Volume Map ............................................................................................................................ 46 Figure 25 - 2040 Truck Volume Map ............................................................................................................................ 47 Figure 26 - Adopted Needs Plan Freight Projects Map ................................................................................................ 51
LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Total Tons of Commodities (millions of tons per year) .................................................................................... 9 Table 2. Top and Origins and Destinations of Truck Freight Passing through North Florida ....................................... 10 Table 3. Top Origins and Destinations of Rail Freight Passing through North Florida ................................................. 10 Table 4. Top Consignees .............................................................................................................................................. 25 Table 5. Top Warehouse Commodities ........................................................................................................................ 26 Table 6. Summary of TEUs for North Florida Port Facilities (JAXPORT and Port of Fernandina) ................................. 29 Table 7. Summary of Rail Intermodal Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 33 Table 8. Growth Factors for Trucks .............................................................................................................................. 36 Table 9. 2013 Intermodal-Related Truck Origins and Destinations (Average Daily Trip Ends) .................................... 39 Table 10. 2013 Intermodal-Related Truck Origin and Destination Volumes (AADT) ................................................... 40 Table 11. 2040 Truck Trip (Average Daily Trip Ends) ................................................................................................... 41 Table 12. 2040 Truck Trip AADTs ................................................................................................................................. 42 Table 13. Summary of NERPM-AB Truck Model Inputs ............................................................................................... 45 Table 14. Adopted Needs Plan Freight and Intermodal Projects ................................................................................. 49
iii
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
FREIGHT AND INTERMODAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF THE FREIGHT SYSTEM WITHIN THE REGION IS AN IMPORTANT ASPECT OF UNDERSTANDING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT AND IN PRIORITIZING PROJECTS FOR FUTURE INVESTMENTS.
INTRODUCTION Our region is located at the confluence of three major railroads (Norfolk Southern, CSX and Florida East Coast (FEC)) and two major interstate facilities (I-10 and I-95) and includes major port facilities at Blount Island, Dames Point, Talleyrand and Fernandina, an international airport and a spaceport facility at Cecil Commerce Center. More than 63 percent of the U.S. population is reachable by rail. About 20 percent of the population is reachable by truck in one day. We serve as the gateway to Florida’s 19.5 million residents. These unique transportation market service areas solidify our region’s position as America’s Logistic Center.
Florida’s strong economic outlook and population growth make this market one of the fastest growing in the U.S. These markets demand and the shippers that serve them expect highly reliable and efficient transportation services for our region to maintain our competitiveness in the global economy.
The movement of goods on our rails and roads are anticipated to grow significantly in North Florida. This growth will contribute to significant increases in highway road congestion. Efficient and reliable access to the rail facilities and ports are critical for our region’s ability to compete in the global economy.
To relieve this congestion and provide for more efficient movement of freight and intermodal container movements to and from the rail and port facilities, investments in freight-related projects are needed by the year 2040.
This report summarizes the methodology used to understand the existing and future freight demand within the region to support decision-making in the 2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan.
A market-driven approach is considered in which the demand and analysis is presented from the freight network user’s perspective. This effort builds on the work performed in prior efforts of the North Florida
Transportation Planning Organization (TPO) documented in the North Florida Freight, Logistics & Intermodal Framework Plan. Additional market analysis was performed and development of a truck model for use in the 2040 Northeast Florida Regional Planning Model –Activity Based (NERPM-AB) are provided.
THE SAFE, EFFECICIENT AND RELIABILE MOVEMENT OF GOODS IS ESSENTIAL TO THE ECONOMIC
COMPETITIVESS OF OUR REGION.
THE BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY’S SHIPPERS IS “TIME TO MARKET”. THE JOURNAL OF COMMERCE'S
LANDMARK SURVEY OF THE WORLD’S TOP 1,000 BLUE CHIP SHIPPERS AND BENIFICIAL CARGO
OWNERS RESULTED IN THE FOLLOWING KEY FACTORS AS THE PRIMARY NEEDS OF THESE
STAKEHOLDERS:
43% OF THE SURVEYED BELIEVE SERVICE
RELIABILITY IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN PORT/TERMINAL SELECTION.
38% PERCENT BELIEVE COMPETITIVE
FREIGHT RATE IS THE PRIME DRIVER IN THE SELECTION DETERMINATION.
12% OF THOSE SURVEYED STATED THAT
SPEED OF SERVICE OR IN-TRANSIT TIME WAS THE KEY DETERMINANT.
1
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
CURRENT SITUATION MULTIMODAL FREIGHT NETWORK The level of connectivity to the North Florida region is a significant economic advantage for our region. I-95 serves as the major highway gateway to Florida’s 19.5 million persons. I-10 connects our region along an east-west route to the southwest, western states, and Pacific Ocean. A third interstate, I-295 serves as a beltway around Jacksonville that connects both of these interstates and provides direct access to major Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT) marine terminals at Blount Island and Dames Point and rail intermodal facilities for CSX and Norfolk Southern railroads. I-75, the nation’s central spine connecting Florida, southeastern and mid-western states is located 60 miles to the west of our region. North Florida provides the rail gateway into Florida. Norfolk Southern and FEC railroads have their Florida termini in North Florida. CSX’s and FEC both maintain their corporate headquarters in North Florida. Genesee & Wyoming Inc., which operates major short line railroads across the US and in Australia, maintains its operations headquarters in Jacksonville.
The following summarizes the major components of the freight network within North Florida including the Florida Department of Transportation’s (FDOT’s) Strategic Intermodal System (SIS). Figure 1 on the following page shows the location of the major elements of the multimodal freight network in North Florida.
FDOT’s Strategic Intermodal System (SIS) is:
“a statewide system of high-priority transportation facilities. It includes the state’s largest and most significant commercial service airports, spaceport, deep-water seaports, freight rail terminals, passenger rail and intercity bus terminals, rail corridors, waterways and highways. These facilities are the workhorses of Florida’s transportation system. They carry more than 99 percent of all enplaned commercial air passengers in the state, virtually 100 percent of all waterborne freight tonnage, almost 100 percent of all freight moving on the rail system, and more than 68 percent of all truck traffic and 54 percent of total traffic on the State Highway System. With the exception of some localized commuting,
recreational and shopping trips, few trips in Florida are not impacted by the SIS. Virtually every freight shipment in the state, as well as nearly every visitor and business traveler, will use the SIS at some point in its journey.” (Source: Strategic Intermodal System Plan)
HIGHWAYS The major SIS highway facilities within our region are shown on Figure 2 and are summarized below.
I-10 I-95 I-295 and SR 9B US 301/SR 200 US 1 from I-295 to the Georgia State Line SR 23 First Coast Expressway (future) SIS Connectors
o Cecil Spaceport (Planned); SR 23 First Coast Expressway to New World Avenue to 6th Street to entrance.
o Jacksonville Amtrak Station (Planned Drop); I-95 to New Kings Road and Martin Luther Jr. King Parkway to Clifford Lane.
o Jacksonville CSX Intermodal Terminal; I-295 to Pritchard Road to Sportsman Club Road to entrance.
o Jacksonville FEC Intermodal Terminal (Bowden Yard); I-95 to SR 202 J.T. Butler Boulevard to US 1 Philips Highway to entrance.
o Jacksonville Greyhound (Planned Drop); I-95 to Forsyth Street to Pearl Street to Bay Street entrance, exit to Forsyth Street to Broad Street to Adams Street to I-95.
o Jacksonville International Airport; I-295 to Duval Road to South International Airport Boulevard to Air Cargo Access Road to cargo entrance.
o Jacksonville International Airport; I-95 to SR 202 Airport Road to passenger terminal.
o Jacksonville Multimodal Terminal Center (Planned Add); I-95 to Forsyth Street to Lee Street to entrance; exit to Lee Street to Adams Street to I-95.
2
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Jacksonville CSX Intermodal Terminal
Jacksonville FEC Intermodal Terminal
Jacksonville NS Intermodal Terminal
Port of Jacksonville Blount IslandPort of Jacksonville Dames Point
Port of Fernandina
Port of Jacksonville TalleyrandPort of Jacksonville Talleyrand
Camp Blanding
Jacksonville Naval Complex
Naval Station Mayport Station
LegendAirports and Spaceports®Y SIS AirportY Emerging SIS Airport®̄̄ SIS Spaceport
Seaports)̄í SIS Seaport)̄í Emerging SIS Seaport
Freight Rail Terminals®XÃ SIS Freight Rail TerminalXÃ Emerging SIS Freight Rail Terminal
¥(¢¥(¢¥(¢¥(¢¥(¢¥(¢¥(¢¥(¢¥(¢¥(¢¥(¢¥(¢Intermodal Logistics Center
Passenger TerminalsÆb SIS Passenger Terminal Æb Emerging SIS Passenger Terminal
HighwaySIS Highway Corridor Emerging SIS Highway Corridor SIS Higway Connectors
RailSIS Railway Corridors Emerging SIS Railway CorridorsSIS Railway Connector
Waterways! ! ! ! SIS Waterway ! ! ! ! Emerging SIS Waterway! ! ! ! SIS Waterway Connector
Railroad SystemRoadway SystemWater BodiesConservation LandsSix Counties Boundaries
2040 Long Range Transportation PlanSIS Intermodal Systems ¯ 0 3 6 Miles
0 10,560 Feet
Date: 6/25/2014
Figure 1
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LegendAirports and Spaceports®Y SIS Airport
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Railroad System
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Water Bodies
Conservation Lands
Six Counties Boundaries
2040 Long Range Transportation PlanDistrict 2 SIS Intermodal Systems ¯ 0 3.5 7 Miles0 10,560 Feet
Date: 9/25/2014
Figure 2Page 4
Private Marine Terminals
International Shipping Channel
St. Johns River Channel
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
o Naval Air Station Jacksonville; I-295 to US 17 Roosevelt Boulevard to entrance.
o Naval Station Mayport; I-295 to US 90 Atlantic Boulevard to SR A1A to entrance.
o Port of Jacksonville Blount Island; I-295 to SR 105 Heckscher Drive to Dave Rawls Boulevard to entrance.
o Part of Jacksonville Dames Point; I-295 to SR 105 Heckscher Drive to New Berlin Road.
o Port of Jacksonville Dames Point Cruise Ship Terminal; I-295 to SR 105 Heckscher Drive to August Drive to entrance
o Port of Jacksonville Dames Point Cruise Ship Terminal; I-95 to SR 105 Heckscher Drive to August Drive to entrance.
o Port of Jacksonville; Talleyrand; I-95 to US 1 MLK Jr. Parkway to Phoenix Avenue to 21st Street to North Talleyrand Avenue to 11th Street entrance.
o Port of Fernandina; I-95 to SR A1A to 8th Street to Dade Street to Front Street to entrance.
RAIL From a rail perspective, North Florida is located at a key junction for three railroads, CSX, Norfolk Southern and FEC. CSX, headquartered in Jacksonville, maintains the largest rail network in Florida and will soon provide enhanced connectivity to the Dames Point and Blount Island marine terminals with the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility (ICTF) at Dames Point. Norfolk Southern maintains its Florida terminus in northwest Jacksonville and provides direct service to the Talleyrand Marine terminals, other key sites along the St. Johns River, and inland facilities. FEC maintains maintains its corporate operations center and its northern terminus in Jacksonville including a river bridge crossing in Downtown that facilitates connections to the CSX and Norfolk Southern railroads. Genesee & Wyoming Inc., which operates major short line railroads across the US and in Australia, maintains its operations headquarters in Jacksonville. The following summarizes the SIS and other major rail intermodal facilities in the study area.
The Florida East Coast Industries intermodal terminal (Bowden Yard), located west of US 1 Philips Highway near SR 202 J. T. Butler Boulevard is included as a hub in
the SIS. This terminal serves distribution facilities and shippers in Florida accessing the facility using I-95 and I-10. Preliminary estimates show this facility generates approximately 300,000 lifts (a lift is the move of one container on or off a rail car) per year which would equate to about 600,000 truck trips per year.
The Norfolk Southern intermodal terminal (Simpson Yard), located east of the I-295 interchange with Pritchard Road, is included as a hub in the SIS. This terminal serves distribution facilities and shippers in Florida accessing the facility using I-95 and I-10. Preliminary estimates show this facility generates approximately 225,000 lifts per year which would equate to about 450,000 truck trips. Norfolk Southern also operates an auto distribution facility with access from Old Kings Road north of Pritchard Road in the project study area. This facility serves the Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT) auto terminal and other commercial shippers of automobile traffic destined for in the southeastern US. This facility is currently not part of the SIS.
The CSX intermodal terminal (Jacksonville Yard), located just west of I-295 at the Pritchard Road interchange, is a major intermodal facility within CSX’s operations and is included as a hub in the SIS. This terminal serves distribution facilities and shippers in Florida accessing the facility using I-95 and I-10. Preliminary estimates show this facility generates approximately 300,000 lifts per year which would equate to about 600,000 truck trips. CSX also operates an auto distribution facility in the study area with access from Commonwealth Boulevard to the south. This facility is similar in size and services to
AN INTERMODAL FREIGHT SHIPMENT IS ONE THAT IS MOVED VIA A STANDARDIZED REUSABLE SHIPPING BOXES CALLED CONTAINERS. TYPICAL MARINE CONTAINERS ARE
40-FT LONG AND TYPICAL TRUCK CONTAINERS ARE 53-FT LONG. EACH CONTAINER CAN CARRY BETWEEN 20
AND 25 TONS OF FREIGHT.
THE UNITS OF MEASURE ARE EXPRESSED IN TWENTY-FOOT EQUIVALENCY UNITS OR TEUS.
5
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
the Norfolk Southern facility. This facility is currently not part of the SIS.
AMTRAK, the National Railroad Passenger Corporation, operates a passenger intermodal facility on the northwest side of Jacksonville off of US 23/SR 15 New Kings Road. This facility serves approximately 30,000 passengers per year. This facility is part of the SIS.
The FDOT SIS connectors include the following Rail Connectors
CSX Eastport Railroad Connector to Blount Island and Dames Point Terminals
CSX Connector to CSX Intermodal Facility Talleyrand Terminal Railroad CSX Downtown Jacksonville to Port of Fernandina
along US 17 Main Street and SR 200 Buccaneer Trail
PORTS JAXPORT1 and its maritime partners handle containerized cargo, automobiles, recreational boats and construction equipment, dry and liquid bulks, break-bulk commodities, and oversized and specialty cargoes.
Blount Island is a 754-acre terminal and is JAXPORT's largest marine facility. It is one of the largest vehicle import/export centers in the United States. The terminal also handles bulk cargo via roll-on/roll-off, heavy lift, and liquid bulk cargo operations. Blount Island has one 112-ton whirly crane and eight container cranes (five 50-ton cranes, one 45-ton crane and two 40-ton cranes). The terminal also offers 240,000-square feet of transit shed space and a 90,000-square-foot Container Freight Station for cross-dock efficiency.
The Dames Point Marine Terminal (TraPac) is located 10 nautical miles from the Atlantic Ocean, the Dames Point Marine Terminal is home to the 158-acre TraPac Container Terminal, where vessels from Tokyo-based MOL and other carriers offer direct containership service between Jacksonville and ports throughout Asia. The TraPac terminal features new port infrastructure, including roadways, terminal buildings, two 1,200-foot berths and six new Panamax container cranes. This 173-acre terminal has 4,780 linear feet of berthing space on
1 Adapted from http://www.jaxport.com/
40 feet of deep-water. A second terminal is planned at Dames Point but a tenant is currently not identified.
The Talleyrand Terminal, located north of Downtown on the west bank of the St. Johns River, is a 173-acre terminal that has 4,780 linear feet of berthing space on 40 feet of deep-water. The Talleyrand terminal offers two 50-LT capacity rubber tired gantry cranes, both of which straddle four rail spurs totaling 4,800 linear feet Talleyrand's on-dock rail facilities are run by Talleyrand Terminal Railroad, Inc., which provides direct switching service for Norfolk Southern and CSX rail lines. The terminal is only 25 minutes from Florida East Coast Railroad's intermodal ramp, and is conveniently located within minutes of interstates I-95 and I-10. Talleyrand is equipped with four container cranes, on-dock rail and 160,000 square feet of transit shed space capable of handling cargo in refrigerated, freezer or ambient conditions. Additionally, a 553,000-square foot warehouse stores a variety of cargoes, including rolls of fine and specialty papers.
The US Marine Corps Terminal is located on Blount Island and supports deployments by the US Transportation Command. Shipments include roll-on-roll off cargo, intermodal and break bulk cargo.
A network of privately-owned maritime facilities also operates in Jacksonville’s harbor, and in Northeast Florida.
The Port of Fernandina has deep-water access with 47-ft channel depth and two berths. The Port consistently handles over 225 vessels per year. The Port’s principal cargoes include break bulk cargo2 consisting of forest products including Kraft liner board, wood pulp, steel and, treated lumber and imports of lumber, wood pulp, hardboard, and steel. The containerized commodities moving through the Port include wood pulp, automobile parts, steel products, beer, frozen foods, machinery, consumer goods just to mention a few.
2http://www.portoffernandinamaritimeexchange.org/resources_port.html
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
AVIATION Although a smaller market relative to tonnage handled by other modes of transportation, aviation services are also part of the region’s freight movement. Several passenger airlines and dedicated all-cargo airlines provide air cargo service at the Jacksonville International Airport (JIA). The airport’s air cargo area has more than 200,000 square feet of warehouse space dedicated to air cargo operations and hundreds of acres of on-airport property suitable for air cargo development. FedEx, UPS, and Airborne all utilize JIA. It is anticipated that Cecil Airport will help support economic development within the region, serving both aviation and aerospace dependent industries. The airport is adjacent to the Cecil Commerce Center and recently was designated a spaceport and “space territory” by the state of Florida (HB59). As a result, the newly named “Cecil Field Spaceport” is included in Space Florida’s Spaceport Master Plan and the SIS.
SUPPORT INFRASTRUCTURE North Florida maintains a significant amount of support infrastructure such as distribution centers, warehousing, industrial and manufacturing facilities. In fact, this region includes more than 100 million square feet of such space and has added nearly 10 million square feet in the past five years, including 1.1 million square feet in 2012. The opportunity to grow this sector is significant given the amount of developable land at existing sites, as well as growing areas such as Cecil Commerce Center in Duval County just north of Clay County, the Crawford Diamond site in Nassau County, and the Woodstock Industrial Site in Baker County.
Figure 3 on the following page shows the locations of the major warehousing and distribution facilities.
7
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Legend^ Industrial Sites®q Airportn¤ Amtrak Stationn¤ Passenger Rail Station
Railroad SystemRoadway SystemWater BodiesConservation LandsSix Counties Boundaries
2040 Long Range Transportation PlanIndustrial Sites ¯ 0 3 6 Miles
0 10,560 Feet
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Figure 3Page 8
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
CURRENT FREIGHT MOVEMENTS North Florida is the origin or destination of freight moving over roadways and railways in Florida and the Southeast US. The following summarizes some of the key findings of analysis of the current freight and commodity flows within the region.
The total shipments that originate in, are destined for, or travel through North Florida are summarized in Table 1. This data is based on the US Department of Transportation’s Freight Analysis Framework data.
The top origins and destinations for truck or rail shipments are summarized in Table 2 and Table 3.
Table 1. Total Tons of Commodities (millions of tons per year)
Origin and Destination Truck Rail Total Percentage
Internal to area 34.9 0.0 34.9 18%
Originates in area
and is destined to within Florida 18.5 0.2 18.7 10% and is destined to outside Florida 8.0 0.6 8.6 5% Is destined for the area And originated from within Florida 7.5 0.4 7.9 4% And originated from outside Florida 8.9 11.6 20.5 11% Port related 11.7 0.6 12.3 6% Through traffic 70.0 18.0 88.0 46%
Total 159.5 31.4 190.9 100%
Mix Percent 84% 16% 100%
Source: Freight Analysis 2012 data.
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Table 2. Top and Origins and Destinations of Truck Freight Passing through North Florida
Through Origins Through Destinations Locations Tonnage Mix Locations Tonnage Mix
Florida Locations
Polk County 10% Miami-Dade County 14%
Miami-Dade County 8% Polk County 5% Hillsborough County 7% Hillsborough County 4% Palm Beach County 4% Orange County 3% Broward County 4% Orange County 2%
Out of State
Savannah, GA 13% New York, NY 12% New York, NY 5% Baltimore, MD 5% Baltimore, MD 4% Boston, MA 4% Charleston, WV 2% Philadelphia, PA 4%
Savannah, GA 3% Other Origins 39% 47% Total 100% Total 100%
Table 3. Top Origins and Destinations of Rail Freight Passing through North Florida
Through Origins Through Destinations Locations Tonnage Mix Locations Tonnage Mix
Florida Locations Polk County 7% Polk County 13% Hillsborough County 5% Orange County 11% Manatee County 3% Hillsborough County 11% Miami-Dade County 3% Miami-Dade County 10% Martin County 5%
Alachua County 3% Sumter County 3% Brevard County 3% Broward County 3%
Out of State Charleston, WV 8% New York, NY 3%
Lexington, KY 8% Chicago, IL 7% Atlanta, GA 6% Birmingham, AL 5% Macon, GA 3%
Other Origins 45% 35%
Total 100% 100%
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
TRUCKING North Florida has a large internal truck market (both the origins and the destinations are within North Florida). North Florida roadways handle 159.5 million tons of freight each year. About 84% of all freight moved within the region is moved on trucks.
Freight originating in North Florida that is moved by truck is split between break bulk, bulk and containerized commodities. About 43% of the freight destined for North Florida is bulk cargo with the balance split between break bulk and bulk cargo.
Cargo travel to and from south and central Florida is the largest market for trucks that travel through the region, but do not stop in North Florida. About 61% of the through freight traveling through North Florida is break bulk cargo, 29% bulk and 10% container.
PORTS About 12.3 million tons of freight are handled each year by the ports in North Florida. The cargo includes freight that is originating in or destined for the six-county region and cargo that uses the port but originates or is destined for another location in the US.
International shipments account for 71% of cargo handled by North Florida ports. Over 74% of the imports are from the Caribbean or South America. Of these international shipments, 55% is destined for distribution and consumption in North Florida.
Cargo exported through North Florida ports totaled 4.9 million tons. About 75% of the market is to the Caribbean. About 11% of the freight exported through the port originates in North Florida. Of the exports that move through North Florida ports, 80% are containerized.
More than 70% of the freight originating in North Florida is exported using ports in North Florida. This means 30% of the freight is exported through a port outside of North Florida. For example, some of the goods produced in North Florida are driven to the Port of Savannah and exported for consumption in other markets.
About 4.7 million tons of cargo exported from the US passes through the region each year. Of these, 59% of the freight originated in one of the top ten markets summarized in Table 2 or Table 3. The container market is 47% of the shipments. The balance is split between bulk and break bulk cargo.
About 9.3 million tons of international cargo imported to the U.S. pass through North Florida. Domestic waterborne cargo is handled at public and private terminals in North Florida and 62% of the tonnage is petroleum and petroleum products.
RAIL Most of the rail cargo shipped in North Florida originated outside of Florida and is consumed within North Florida. Table 1 and Table 3 summarize the total tonnage and top origin and destinations for rail cargo.
AIR CARGO In 2012, air cargo operators moved more than 0.75 million tons of air cargo through Jacksonville International Airport (JAX). The typical commodities shipped by air are high value and time sensitive. Shipments of Florida citrus, Vidalia onions, peaches, fish from the Caribbean and flowers from Columbia being shipped to Asia is an emerging air-cargo market. Air cargo delivered on underutilized aircraft flying to Asia represents the greatest recent growth in air cargo.
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
TOP COMMODITIES TYPES The following tables and figures summarize the top commodities
Top commodity imports. Top commodity exports. Top inbound and outbound commodities carried on
truck. Top inbound and outbound commodities carried by
rail carload. Top inbound and outbound commodities by rail
intermodal. Top inbound and outbound commodities by air. Top inbound and outbound commodities by
waterborne.
The information for inbound movements is provided first, followed by outbound movements. In the charts provided, the abbreviation FAK means freight of all kinds.
This data was summarized based on a compilation of various sources published through recent studies including
North Florida TPO’s Freight, Logistics and Intermodal Framework Plan was used as a foundation.
Real-time data collected through the Automated Commercial Environment of the US Customs and Border Patrol was used. This data was mined using the Trade Intelligence Analysis Tool (TradeIQ™) for import and export data directly from the Automated Commercial Environment System.
Market analysis development by the St. Onge Institute was added to the data summaries and used as a reasonableness check.
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 4 - Top Commodity Imports
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 5 - Top 12 Commodity Exports
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 6 – Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Truck
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15,000
20,000
25,000
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 7 - Top Commodities Inbound Rail Shipments by Carload
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 8 - Top Commodities Inbound Rail Shipments by Intermodal Container
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 9 –Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Air
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 10 - Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Port
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ons
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 11 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Truck
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Thou
sand
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ons
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 12 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Rail Carload
0
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ons
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 13 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Rail Intermodal
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1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
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ons
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 14 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Air
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 15 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Port
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400
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700
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Table 4. Top Consignees
Consignee Address % Total Unknown N/A 17.7% UP-Kymmene Westmont, IL 3.4% Michaels Stores Procurement Irving, TX 2.4% Amware Pallet Services Jacksonville, FL 2.2% Beaver Street Fisheries, Inc. Jacksonville, FL 1.7% Aloe Vera of America Dallas, TX 1.7% Bacardi Bottling Co. Jacksonville, FL 1.4% Uniliver Jacksonville, FL 1.3% Southern Tires, Inc. Jackson, AL 1.2% Baxter Healthcare Crossdock Memphis, TN 1.1% Proctor & Gamble Browns Summit, NC 1.1% Bridgestone Americas Jacksonville, FL 0.8% The Coca Cola Company Austell, GA 0.7% Goodnight Jacksonville, FL 0.7% Altadis Tampa, FL 0.7% Aqua Gulf Transport Blount Island, FL 0.7% Fleet Industrial Supply Center Jacksonville, FL 0.6% Giti Tire Rancho Cucamonga, CA 0.6% Atlanta Consolidated Warehouse Austell, GA 0.6% Costco Depot College Park, GA 0.5% Arauco Wood Products Atlanta, GA 0.5% General Products International Lake In The Hill, IL 0.5% Walgreens Orlando, FL 0.5%
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Table 5. Top Warehouse Commodities
Commodity % Total Fresh, Chilled, Frozen & Processed Foods 23.3% Beverages Alcoholic & Non alcoholic 21.0% Furniture and Home Furnishings 15.1% Household Cleaners & Paper Products 9.6% Apparel and Footwear 10.1% Medical Devices and Pharmaceuticals 4.8% Office Products and General Use 4.1% Home Improvement, Building Supplies, Garden Products 3.0% Auto Aftermarket; Vehicle Dealers 2.7% Sporting Goods, Athletic Equipment, Hobby 1.9% Consumer Electronics & Appliances 1.8% Candy/Card/Gift/Novelty 1.1% Other 1.5% Total 100%
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
FUTURE FREIGHT DEMAND INTRODUCTION This section summarizes the forecast of freight and intermodal demand for the region. The following sections summarize the following
Forecasting Methodology Port Intermodal Rail Truck Air
These freight forecasts were used in the development of the truck model in the NERPM-AB and to identify potential needs for freight and intermodal infrastructure to support economic development. The modeling update and future needs are discussed later in this report.
FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Historically, the demand for freight shipments and the gross domestic product (GDP) and gross state product (the equivalent considering only the economic productivity in Florida) are highly correlated. Therefore, the first step in developing a forecast for the regional freight movements was to forecast the anticipated growth in GDP and gross state product for Florida. The GDP-based forecasts are appropriate for estimating the total movement of commodities that include trips that are shipped by rail and port intermodal.
Figure 16 shows the basis of the GDP forecast used in continuous annual growth rates. In the figure, the acronyms used are for the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Toronto Dominion Bank (TD). The historical growth is shown as HIS growth.
The average of the forecasted growth rates shown on the dashed line show the basis of the forecasts provided in this report.
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
GDP forecasts used as basis for freight
forecasts.
Figure 16 - Summary of GDP Forecasts
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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
PORT INTERMODAL The forecast of intermodal rail originating and destined for JAXPORT and Port of Fernandina Facilities is based on published historical 20-ft Equivalency Units (TEU) and rail intermodal market analysis. Below is a comparison of the TEU data published for the JAXPORT.
Two levels of forecasts were prepared: a moderate and a more aggressive forecast. The moderate split uses a growth factor of 1.25 times the GDP growth in freight movements. The aggressive forecast uses a factor of 1.75 times GDP. The more aggressive forecast anticipates a greater shift of freight movements moving by intermodal rail than by truck movements today.
Figure 17 shows a summary of historical data as reported by the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) and the moderate and aggressive forecasts for loaded commodities in TEUs.
For the areas outside the Jacksonville area, two forecast splits were developed for both the moderate forecast and the aggressive forecast.
1. Conservative estimate: Assumes that today 10% of the total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail. This rate is increased by 0.4% annually.
2. High estimate: Assumes that today 20% of total TEUimports and exports are shipped via rail. This rate isalso increased by 0.4% annually.
3. The percent of TEUs shipped via rail ranges from 8%to 18% for the conservative estimate, or 16% to 26%for the high estimate.
4. Two TEU forecasts for “loaded containers” weredeveloped for the Jacksonville and Fernandina ports.
In addition to the loaded TEUs that are imported and exported – empty TEUs are also moved - primarily to the Jacksonville Ports. Many of the TEU’s are from the Jacksonville area, but many also travel from locations beyond North Florida to our ports.
Table 6 provides a summary of the historical volume of container movements through the port facilities in North Florida (JAXPORT and Port of Fernandina combined).
These historical data were used to estimate the number of imported, exported and empty containers traveling through the ports in North Florida. The moderate and aggressive forecasts are summarized in Figure 18 and Figure 19 on the following pages.
Table 6. Summary of TEUs for North Florida Port Facilities (JAXPORT and Port of Fernandina)
TEUs 2009 2010 2011 2012
Import TEUs 139,653 162,645 174,174 192,830
Export TEUs 376,044 436,172 444,526 425,393
Total loaded TEU's 515,697 598,817 618,700 618,223
Empty TEUs* 262,532 291,176 303,151 319,455
Empties as % of Total Loaded 51% 49% 49% 52%
Average % past 4 years 50%
* Empties are not defined as imported or exported
29
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 17 - Moderate and Aggressive TEU Port Forecast
2020, 848,872
2030, 1,272,981
1,903,555
2013, 618,500
2020, 927,670
2030, 1,628,602
2,847,947
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039
TEU
s per
yea
r
Actual (AAPA Loaded TEUs)
Vickerman Moderate Forecast (Loaded TEUsonly)
Vickerman Aggressive Forecast (Loaded TEUsonly)
Moderate Forecast (Loaded TEUs only)
Aggressive Forecast (Loaded TEUs only)
30
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
2013, 927,750
2020, 1,273,308
2030, 1,909,471
2040, 2,855,333
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039
Moderate Forecast Imports
Exports
Empties
Total TEUs (Loaded + Empties)
Figure 18 - Summary of 2040 Moderate Forecast of Port Intermodal Shipments (TEUs)
31
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
2020, 1,391,506
2030, 2,442,902
2040, 4,271,920
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039
Aggressive Forecast
Imports
Exports
Empties
Total TEUs (Loaded + Empties)
Figure 19 - Summary of 2040 Aggressive Forecast of Port Intermodal Shipments (TEUs)
32
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
RAIL
RAIL INTERMODAL The mix of the forecasted TEUs that travel via rail, both to and from North Florida, as well as to and from areas outside North Florida, is based on US Department of Transportation’s Freight Analysis Framework published data. The assumptions with the moderate and aggressive forecasts vary. Moderate forecast: Assumes that today 10% of the
total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail. This rate is increased by 0.4% annually
Aggressive forecast: Assumes that today 20% of total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail. This rate is also increased by 0.4% annually.
The percent of TEUs shipped via rail ranges from 8% to 18% for the conservative estimate, or 16% to 26% for the high estimate.
Table 7 summarizes the rail intermodal forecasts. Figure 20 and Figure 21 show this information graphically.
Table 7. Summary of Rail Intermodal Forecasts
Rail Intermodal TEUs 2013
2040 Moderate or Conservative Aggressive
Incremental TEUs shipped via rail 68,245 212,484 317,902 TEUs shipped outside the metro area 70,975 450,497 673,952 TEUs shipped within the metro area 7,653 65,716 98,318 Total TEUs
728,697 1,090,172
33
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 20 - 2040 Moderate Forecast of Rail Intermodal
2013, 7,653
2025, 21,344
2040, 65,716
2013, 70,975
2025, 171,226
2040, 450,467
2013, 68,245
2025, 112,649
2040, 212,484
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039
Incremental TEU's shipped via Rail(Conservative Rate vs. High Rate)
TEUs shipped outside the Metro area -Conservative Range
TEUs shipped within the JacksonvilleMetro area
34
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Figure 21 - 2040 Aggressive Forecast of Rail Intermodal
2013, 7,653
2025, 25,204
2040, 98,318
2013, 70,975
2025, 202,191
2040, 673,952
2013, 68,245
2025, 133,020
2040, 317,902
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039
Incremental TEU's shipped via Rail(Conservative Rate vs. High Rate)
TEUs shipped outside the Metro area -Conservative Range
TEUs shipped within the JacksonvilleMetro area
35
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
RAIL CARLOAD Similar to the rail intermodal growth forecast, rail carload movements are also anticipated to grow. This growth will be less than the increase of rail intermodal because of the anticipated shift between carload and intermodal and the consumption orientation of the carload shipments within these areas. This growth is anticipated in be 2.0% to 2.2% per year or a growth factor (GF) of 2.7.
TRUCK INTERMODAL FORECASTS
TRUCK TRIPS AND VOLUMES Using the port and rail intermodal forecasts and existing truck counts at the entrances to the major intermodal facilities, a worksheet model was prepared to estimate the truck movements between each of the major intermodal facilities within the region.
To build a truck trip table between each of the regional intermodal facilities, the following steps were performed.
1. The existing (2013) truck volumes at the entrances to the intermodal facilities were estimated based on the FDOT Traffic Online database.
2. Using the market and information developed through the cargo and logistics demand forecast, the ratio of truck movements between intermodal facilities was estimated.
3. External truck volumes were identified at the major external nodes within the 2040 NERPM-AB.
4. Table 9 provides a summary of the truck trips ends. Table 10 provides a summary in Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) truck volumes for the movement of trucks between each of the facilities.
After establishing the base year truck flows, growth rates were forecast by using growth rates based on the following assumptions.
All of the truck related volumes presented in this report are based on AADT. From September to January, a seasonal peaking of demand occurs with intermodal shipments. The peaking is due to the build-up for the holiday shopping season. The peaking factor for these volumes is 40 percent higher than the average. AADTs are shown in the NERPM-AB.
GROWTH RATES Where GDP are highly correlated to the overall growth in commodity movements, population growth also serves as a reasonable basis for estimating the growth of the internal-internal truck trips. For external truck trips that remain in Florida the forested population growth in Florida was used. Both GF were based on the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) medium growth forecasts. These growth factors are summarized in Table 8.
Table 8. Growth Factors for Trucks
2011 BEBR
(millions
2040 BEBR
Medium (millions)
Growth Factor (GF)
Internal GF based on population growth 1.4 1.9 1.36 External GF based on population growth in Florida 18.905 25.847 1.37
36
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
An anticipated shift in truck to rail intermodal traffic based on industry trends is anticipated to occur. With this shift, a growth factor of 3.08 was used to reflect the change in rail intermodal demand versus truck trip growth. This shift explaining the basis for the growth rate is discussed in greater detail in the rail intermodal forecasting section.
In addition, two major shifts in truck movements associated with intermodal shipments were assumed:
The opening of ICTF near Blount Island requires trucks to leave the port gate by truck. These containers are then shifted to the rail network for short-haul movement to the CSX Intermodal Facility or long-haul movement by rail.
The delivery of containers to the ICTF by truck is anticipated to be small with most of the regional port-related container shipments being delivered to the CSX Intermodal Facility.
Neither the FEC nor Norfolk Southern railroads are anticipated to use the ICTF.
The second Dames Point intermodal terminal is anticipated to be open by the year 2040 and operating near capacity similar to the exiting intermodal terminal.
Table 11 and Table 12 summarize the anticipated intermodal-related truck movements in the year 2040.
AIR CARGO Florida Trade and Logistic Study (2011) and 2013-2043 Florida and Metro Forecast published by the University of Central Florida anticipate that air cargo within the region will increase by 45% between now and the year 2040. This forecast will largely be driven by population growth within the region. Air cargo accounts for less than 1% by volume shipped in the region, but may be as high as 4% of the total value of goods.
DEMAND VS. CAPACITY ANALYSIS
INTERMODAL FACILITIES As previously discussed, the projected growth in intermodal traffic by the year 2040 indicates that demand may be 2.8 to 4.3 times the current demand as presented in the prior sections.
A comparison of the demand and theoretical capacity of the FEC, Norfolk Southern and CSX intermodal was performed based. The analysis builds on the capacity analysis conducted in the Norfolk Southern and CSX SIS Connector PD&E Study performed by FDOT. The results are summarized in Figure 22.
The practical capacity identified in Figure 22 is primarily a function of the rail siding lengths and intermodal container storage available within the facility.
In this scenario, the CSX facility will have demand above the theoretical capacity of the current facility and their operational capacity is enhanced with additional container storage provided at the ICTF.
The demand at the FEC and Norfolk Southern facilities will be nearly twice the capacity of the current facility. CSX is considering advancing plans for the expansion of their intermodal facility. FEC’s and Norfolk Southern’s opportunities for expansion are limited due to available rights-of-way at their existing facility.
37
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
FEC Intermodal NS Intermodal CSX Intermodal JAXPORT ICTF
Lift
s Per
Yea
r
Current Demand 2040 Demand (Moderate Forecast) Practical Capacity
Figure 22 - Demand Capacity Analysis for Intermodal Facilities
38
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Table 9. 2013 Intermodal-Related Truck Origins and Destinations (Average Daily Trip Ends)
Blount Island
(includes Gate)
Dames Point
(TraPac) Talleyrand
FEC Inter-modal
CSX Inter-modal
Norfolk Southern
Inter-modal
CSX Auto-ramp
Norfolk Southern
Auto-ramp Total
Internal 865 99 472 30 146 120 4 4 1,740
External 247 347 143 70 408 88 4 4 1,311
Blount Island (includes Gate) - - - 37 74 13 - - 124
Dames Point (TraPac) - - - 15 30 5 - - 50
Talleyrand - - - - - - 50 50 100
FEC Intermodal 37 15 - - 73 75 - - 200
CSX Intermodal 74 30 - 73 - - - - 177
Norfolk Southern Intermodal 13 5 - 75 - - - - 93
CSX Auto - - 50 - - - - - 50
Norfolk Southern Auto - - 50 - - - - - 50
Total 1,236 496 715 300 731 301 58 58
39
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Table 10. 2013 Intermodal-Related Truck Origin and Destination Volumes (AADT)
Blount Island
(includes Gate)
Dames Point
(TraPac) Talleyrand
FEC Inter-modal
CSX Inter-modal
Norfolk Southern
Inter-modal
CSX Auto-ramp
Norfolk Southern
Auto-ramp Total
Internal 1,730 198 944 60 292 240 7 7 3,478
External 494 694 286 140 815 175 8 8 2,6202620
Blount Island (includes Gate) 74 148 25 - - 247
Dames Point (TraPac) 30 59 10 - - 99
Talleyrand - - - 100 100 200
FEC 74 30 - 146 150 - - 400
CSX 148 59 - 146 - - - 353
NS 25 10 - 150 - - 185
CSX Auto - - 100 - - - - 100
Norfolk Southern Auto - - 100 - - - - 100
Total 2,471 991 1,430 600 1,460 600 115 115
40
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Table 11. 2040 Truck Trip (Average Daily Trip Ends)
Blount Island
(includes Gate)
Dames Point
(TraPac) Talleyrand
Dames Point
Terminal 2
ICTF FEC
Inter-modal
CSX Inter-modal
Norfolk Southern
Inter-modal
CSX Auto-ramp
Norfolk Southern
Auto-ramp
Total
Internal 2,664 305 641 305 - 93 450 370 5 5 4,838 External - 1,069 194 1,069 - 216 1,255 270 6 6 4,085 Blount Island (includes Gate) - - - - 50 114 178 39 - - 381 Dames Point (TraPac) - - - - - 46 91 16 - - 153 Talleyrand - - - - - - - - - - 0 Dames Point Terminal 2 - - - - - 46 91 16 - - 153 ICTF 50 - - - - - - - - - 50 FEC Intermodal 114 46 - 46 - - 225 231 - - 662 CSX Intermodal 178 91 - 91 - 225 - - - - 585 Norfolk Southern Intermodal 39 16 - 16 - 231 - - - - 302 Total 3,045 1,527 835 1,527 50 970 2,290 940 11 11
41
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Table 12. 2040 Truck Trip AADTs
Blount Island
(includes Gate)
Dames Point
(TraPac) Talleyrand
Dames Point
Terminal 2
ICTF FEC
Inter-modal
CSX Inter-modal
Norfolk Southern
Inter-modal
CSX Auto-ramp
Norfolk Southern
Auto-ramp
Total
Internal 5,328 610 1,281 610 185 899 739 10 10 9,672 External - 2,138 388 2,138 431 2,510 539 11 11 8,166 Blount Island (includes Gate) - - - - 100 228 356 77 - - 761
Dames Point (TraPac) - - - - 92 182 31 - - 305 Talleyrand - - - - - 0 Dames Point Terminal 2 - - - - - 92 182 31 - - 305 ICTF 100 -
100 FEC Intermodal 228 92 - 92 - 450 462 - - 1,324912 CSX Intermodal 356 182 - 182 450 - - - - 1,170 Norfolk Southern Intermodal 77 31 - 31 462 - - - - 601 Total 6,089 3,053 1,669 3,053 100 1,940 4,579 1,879 21 21
42
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
TRACK CAPACITY With the increase in demand that is anticipated to occur for freight rail and intermodal movements, the operational capacity on the existing rail infrastructure is anticipated to reach or exceed capacity within the region.
The SIS Needs Plan and the 2040 Path Forward Adopted Needs Plan, considered the track improvements provided by FDOT through coordination with the railroads. However, the focus of the railroad operations analysis usually does not exceed five to ten years. Currently there are as many as 20 trains per day that operate on the FEC line, 14 trains per day operate on CSX’s S-line main. Six trains per day operate on Norfolk Southern main line.
With the addition of intercity passenger service proposed by Amtrak and commuter rail by the JTA, the available operational capacity will be further impacted.
Looking to the year 2040 additional track including triple tracking CSX S-line, FEC and Norfolk Southern north of their intermodal facility may be needed to provide the operational capacity associated with the increase in freight rail and passenger rail.
Based on knowledge of the current rail system, the following locations are likely system bottlenecks where the greatest need for operational improvements may be needed. These bottlenecks are shown on Figure 23.
Springfield Switch – this location is currently abottleneck for the interchange of traffic between theCSX and Norfolk Southern and for trains to travelnorth to the JAXPORT connections along Eastport.
North Rail Corridor – This new rail connector willreduce some the congestion by allowing CSX trainsdestined for the ICTF to avoid the Springfield switchdowntown. A phase 2 of the corridor is needed toconnect to Norfolk Southern and shared operationalrights to fully leverage the capacity of the newconnector. A new roadway is also recommended forinclusion in this corridor between US 17 Main Streetand SR 23 New Kings Road.
FEC Railroad Bridge over the St. Johns River - Thisbridge is a system bottleneck and will limit thecapacity for trains to move through region andaccess the intermodal and port facilities.
Crawford Diamond - With the opening of the WinterHaven Intermodal Facility and the beginning ofoperations of SunRail in Central Florida, CSX isshifting more a significant portion of its freight trafficdaily from the A-line, which runs along US 17 to theS-line, running along US 301. This rail traffic crossesthe Crawford Diamond at Norfolk Southern. TheCrawford Diamond also presents an operationalchallenge, considering the increased traffic and theneed for CSX to clear the crossing for NorfolkSouthern to traverse the crossing. In the futureoperational improvements (or eliminating the needfor some of Norfolk Southern trains to cross thediamond) are needed.
To determine the extent and scope of the future track capacity needed, a rail operations model for the region is needed. However, the development of this model is beyond the scope of the 2040 Path Forward LRTP.
43
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HighwaySIS Highway Corridor
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SIS Higway Connectors
RailSIS Railway Corridors
Emerging SIS Railway Corridors
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Waterways! ! ! ! SIS Waterway
! ! ! ! Emerging SIS Waterway
! ! ! ! SIS Waterway Connector
Railroad System
Roadway System
Water Bodies
Conservation Lands
Six Counties Boundaries
2040 Long Range Transportation PlanFreight Bottlenecks ¯ 0 3.5 7 Miles0 10,560 Feet
Date: 9/25/2014
Figure 23Page 44
Private Marine Terminals
International Shipping Channel
St. Johns River Channel
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
TRUCK MODEL IN THE NERPM-AB In addition to forecasting the overall goods movement and intermodal shipments which were of particular concern within the region, the truck component of the NERPM-AB was updated. These updates were based on data from the freight and intermodal demand forecasts, statewide freight model and the truck model in the NERPM-AB.
In the NERPM-AB there are three types of freight data sources, (1) the statewide freight data on the interstate system, (2) the freight destined to the Jacksonville and Fernandina ports within our study area and (3) the truck trips that are related to distribution of goods and services within our study area. The third group is calculated by the model based on residential and employment input data.
The statewide freight data is obtained from the statewide freight model, while the freight data associated with the ports within the NERPM-AB area was obtained by conducting a study of the commodity flows at the Jacksonville and Fernandina ports. In the NERPM-AB, the data associated with the ports is located in the JAXPORT input file.
The JAXPORT file distributes trips to the ports and the intermodal facilities. Trips associated with the intermodal facilities are generated by the port but also by the statewide freight model. The model distributes the trips from these two sources based on percentages. These percentages are placed in the JAXPORT file. One input percentage is associated with each of the intermodal facilities, while the other percentage results in the model calculating how many of the port trips go to the intermodal facilities. This percentage represents the distribution of truck freight volumes (port and statewide) among the different intermodal facilities. The total number of freight trips associated with the different intermodal facilities in 2010 and 2040 were shown in and Table 9 and Table 11 respectively.
These data were converted to percentages to distribute the freight truck trips tables which are then added to all the other trip tables by the model and assigned to the highway network. The format of the data that is required for the truck model is summarized in Table 13.
The resulting truck volumes are shown on Figure 24 and Figure 25.
Table 13. Summary of NERPM-AB Truck Model Inputs
Port Facilities Total Port to Intermodal Facilities Volumes Percent of Total Port to Intermodal Facilities Volumes 2013 2040 2013 2040
Blount Island 247 761 10% 12% Dames Point 99 305 10% 10% Talleyrand 200 0 14% 0% Dames Point 2 305 10% Fernandina 10% 10% Total 546 1,371 10% 9%
45
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Year 2010 Base YearTotal Average Daily Truck Volume
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2040 Long Range Transportation Plan2010 Truck Volume ¯ 0 3 6 Miles
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Date: 7/11/2014
Figure 24 Page 46
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Legend®q Airportn¤ Amtrak Stationn¤ Passenger Rail Station
Year 2040 No BuildTotal Average Daily Truck Volume
< 500501 - 1,0001,001 - 2,0002,001 - 3,000> 3,001Railroad SystemRoadway SystemWater BodiesConservation LandsSix Counties Boundaries
2040 Long Range Transportation Plan2040 Truck Volume ¯ 0 3 6 Miles
0 10,560 Feet
Date: 7/11/2014
Figure 25 Page 47
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
FREIGHT NEEDS ADOPTED NEEDS PLAN An analysis of the freight needs for the region was based on a summary of the documented needs presented for each mode within the FDOT SIS Needs Plan and based on coordination with regional freight stakeholders within the region.
Table 14 provides a summary of these needs compiled from other agencies. Figure 26 shows the location projects located outside of the gates of multimodal facilities. These needs were adopted by the North Florida TPO Board in June 2014. This plan reflects the needs provided by JAXPORT, Port of Fernandina Beach, the Jacksonville Aviation Authority and the St. Johns County – St. Augustine Airport Authority.
ADDITIONAL NEEDS In addition to these needs analysis of several key components of the multimodal freight network were performed based on an analysis of the demand and our understanding of the system capacity. The analysis is divided into terminals and line capacity considerations.
48
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
Table 14. Adopted Needs Plan Freight and Intermodal Projects
County Map Id Agency Location Time Frame Improvement Type Clay 2200 CSX Transportation at Wells Road Mid-Term Grade Separation
Clay 2201 CSX Transportation at Kingsley Avenue (SR 224) Mid-Term Grade Separation
Duval 2202 CSX Transportation at Busch Drive (SR 104) Long-Term Grade Separation
Duval 2204 CSX Transportation at Beaver Street Interlocking Mid-Term Capacity Upgrade
Duval 2205 CSX Transportation North Rail Connector - From West of New Kings Road (US 1) to West of Main Street (US 17) Mid-Term Multi Modal Corridor
Duval 2206 CSX Transportation Westlake Cecil Commerce Connector Mid-Term Multi Modal Corridor
Duval 2207 Florida East Coast Railway at Bowden Intermodal Mid-Term Capacity Upgrade
Duval 2208 Florida East Coast Railway at Jacksonville Bridge Short-Term Bridge
Duval 2259 Florida East Coast Railway at Sunbeam Road Short-Term Grade Separation
Duval 2260 Florida East Coast Railway At Shad Road Short-Term Grade Separation
Duval 2209 Jacksonville International Airport Construction of Runway 7R/25L Mid-Term Construct Runway
Duval 2210 Jacksonville International Airport Air Cargo Ramp Improvements Short-Term Expand Apron
Duval 2211 Jacksonville International Airport Air Cargo Surface Storage Short-Term Expand Apron
Duval 2212 Jacksonville International Airport Design & Construct By-Pass Taxiways Short-Term Construct Taxiway
Duval 2213 Jacksonville International Airport Intermodal Terminal Facility Development Short-Term Terminal Development
Duval 2214 Norfolk Southern at Norfolk Southern Railway (Near Simpson Yard) Short-Term Grade Separation
Duval 2215 Jacksonville Port Authority Blount Island / Dames Point Marine Terminals Rail Long-Term Internal Rail
Duval 2216 Jacksonville Port Authority Blount Island Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades Long-Term Docks
Duval 2217 Jacksonville Port Authority Blount Island Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades Long-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2218 Jacksonville Port Authority Dames Point Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades Long-Term Docks
Duval 2219 Jacksonville Port Authority Dames Point Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades Long-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2220 Jacksonville Port Authority New Cranes for Talleyrand and Blount Island Marine Terminals Long-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2221 Jacksonville Port Authority Talleyrand Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades Long-Term Docks
Duval 2222 Jacksonville Port Authority Talleyrand Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades Long-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2223 Jacksonville Port Authority Talleyrand Marine Terminal Rail Long-Term Internal Rail
Duval 2224 Jacksonville Port Authority Blount Island Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades Mid-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2225 Jacksonville Port Authority Dames Point Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades Mid-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2226 Jacksonville Port Authority New Cranes for Talleyrand and Blount Island Marine Terminals Mid-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2227 Jacksonville Port Authority Talleyrand Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades Mid-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2228 Jacksonville Port Authority Blount Island / Dames Point Terminals - Rail and Bridge Short-Term Internal Rail
Duval 2229 Jacksonville Port Authority Blount Island Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades Short-Term Docks
49
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
County Map Id Agency Location Time Frame Improvement Type Duval 2230 Jacksonville Port Authority Blount Island Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades Short-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2231 Jacksonville Port Authority Dames Point Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades Short-Term Docks
Duval 2232 Jacksonville Port Authority Dames Point Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades Short-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2233 Jacksonville Port Authority Harbor Deepening Short-Term Dredging Harbor
Duval 2234 Jacksonville Port Authority New Cranes for Talleyrand and Blount Island Marine Terminals Short-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2235 Jacksonville Port Authority Talleyrand Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades Short-Term Docks
Duval 2236 Jacksonville Port Authority Talleyrand Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades Short-Term Intermodal Transfer Improvement
Duval 2237 Jacksonville Port Authority Talleyrand Marine Terminal Rail Short-Term Internal Rail
Duval 1006 Jacksonville Port Authority Spoil Island Connector Bridge Long-Term New Roadway and Bridge
Duval/Baker 2238 CSX Transportation Jacksonville to Macclenny Mid-Term New Passenger Service
Duval/Clay 2239 CSX Transportation Jacksonville to Green Cove Springs Mid-Term New Passenger Service
Duval/Nassau 2240 CSX Transportation Jacksonville to Yulee Mid-Term New Passenger Service
Duval/St. John's 2241 Florida East Coast Railway Jacksonville to St. Augustine Mid-Term New Passenger Service
Nassau 2203 CSX Transportation at SR A1A (SR 200) Mid-Term Grade Separation
Nassau 2243 CSX Transportation at US 301 Crawford Diamond Mid-Term Grade Separation
Nassau 2242 CSX Transportation at US 301 (SR 200) / Baldwin Mid-Term Grade Separation
Nassau 2244 Port of Fernandina Berth Improvements Short-Term Docks
Nassau 2245 Port of Fernandina Cruise / Cargo Berth Short-Term Docks
Nassau 2246 Port of Fernandina Rail Track Improvements Short-Term Internal Rail
Nassau 2247 Port of Fernandina Short-Term Access Improvements
Putnam 2248 City of Palatka SR 100 CR 309D Long-Term Runway expansion
Putnam 2249 County Barge Port Mid-Term Operational and Capital Improvements
Putnam 2250 CSX Transportation at Reid Street (SR 15) Mid-Term Grade Separation
St. John's 2251 City of Saint Augustine Historic Commercial Areas Mid-Term Mobility & Distribution Improvements
Statewide 2252 Florida East Coast Railway Amtrak Service Miami to Jacksonville Short-Term New Passenger Service
Statewide 2253 Florida East Coast Railway Miami to Jacksonville Upgrade Bolt and Clip System Short-Term Track Upgrade
Statewide 2254 Intercity Passenger Rail New Orleans to Jacksonville Long-Term New Passenger Service
Statewide 2255 Intercity Passenger Rail Jacksonville to Savannah Mid-Term New Passenger Service
Statewide 2256 Intercity Passenger Rail Orlando to Jacksonville Mid-Term New Passenger Service
50
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Legend®q Airportn¤ Amtrak Stationn¤ Passenger Rail StationXÃ CSX TransportationXÃ Florida East Coast RailwayXÃ Norfolk Southern¥l¤ Port of Fernandina¥l¢ Port of Jacksonville
Spoil Island BridgeCSX Commuter Rail NorthCSX Commuter Rail SouthwestFEC Commuter Rail SoutheastRailroad SystemRoadway SystemWater BodiesConservation LandsSix Counties Boundaries
2040 Draft Cost Feasible PlanFreight Projects ¯ 0 4.5 9 Miles
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Date: 9/29/2014
North Rail Corridor
See inset
Downtown Jacksonville
Figure 26Page 51
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
FUTURE SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT CONCEPT –A REGIONAL INTERMODAL FACILITY A failure to invest in meeting these future freight needs within our region could result in the railroads making investments outside of our region to meet this demand. Moving or shifting major intermodal facilities could result in reducing our economic competitiveness as a region and JAXPORT’s competitiveness for growth since access to rail and other support infrastructure are key components to the success of any port.
One potential public-private partnership that may be used to meet these needs include development of a joint-use regional intermodal facility. This concept could result in the following benefits to the region.
Investing in projects that result in regional economicdevelopment and leverage our position as America’sLogistic Center.
Creating greater balance of jobs and employmentthroughout the region through strategic investmentsin infrastructure.
Relieving congestion and enhancing mobility througha systems approach to transportation investmentand supporting future transit options such ascommuter rail.
Increasing safety by reducing truck traffic within theurbanized area.
Providing direct access between one or two Class Irailroads (CSX and Norfolk Southern), the FECrailroad.
Expediting service to JAXPORT and off-dockcontainer storage that can improve the operationalefficiencies and practical sustained capacity at ourexisting port facilities without requiring additionalport construction.
Capturing the projected increase in freight transporton the east coast of the US.
Increasing employment in the region. Freeing up current freight rail corridors for
passenger rail service. Consolidating distribution warehouses and freight
transportation in one geographical area. Improving FEC access to inland US. Improving FEC, CSX and Norfolk Southern freight
transfer capabilities. Increasing JAXPORT freight handling capacities.
Two examples of similar facilities that were developed through public-private partnerships include:
Rickenbacker Inland Port - Columbus, Ohio - Rickenbacker Inland Port located in Columbus Ohio is serviced by two of the largest rail providers in the United States, Norfolk Southern and CSX. The majority of rail freight traveling to Columbus is international and has reached the Ohio Valley via the East and West Coast ocean ports. The Norfolk Southern Rickenbacker Intermodal Terminal, which is capable of handling more than 400,000 containers annually, is located in the heart of the Rickenbacker Inland Port. This facility is reported to account for 15,000 jobs each year and an economic impact of $1.9 billion each year.
Joliet Inland Port - Will County, Illinois - Located in northeastern Illinois approximately 42 miles southwest of Chicago, the BNSF and UP, two Class I railroads serving western US coastal ports have developed modern intermodal yards in Will County. Combined, these intermodals are 1,750 acres in size and anchor 3,700 acres of industrial park development with unprecedented rail access. These intermodal facilities account for 25,000 jobs and $3 billion direct and indirect economic benefits for the community each year.
To advance this concept, regional partnerships with railroad, developers and public agencies will be needed. Since the viability of this solution is not known at this time, the project is not included in the 2040 Path Forward Plan. Based on future regional cooperation and planning, this project could become viable and a program plan for the project will be developed.
52
2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan
SUMMARY Our region is located at the confluence of three major railroads (Norfolk Southern, CSX and Florida East Coast (FEC)) and two major interstate facilities (I-10 and I-95). North Florida includes major port facilities at Blount Island, Dames Point Talleyrand and Fernandina, an international airport, and a spaceport facility at Cecil Commerce Center. More than 200 million persons or 63% of the U.S. population is easily served by rail and 63 million persons or 20% of the population is reachable in one day by truck. We serve as the gateway to Florida’s 19.5 million residents. These unique transportation market service areas solidify our region’s position as America’s Logistic Center.
Florida’s strong economic outlook and population growth make this market one of the fastest growing in the US. These markets demand and the shippers that serve them expect highly reliable and efficient transportation services for our region to maintain our competitiveness in the global economy.
The movement of goods on our rails and roads are anticipated to grow significantly. This growth will contribute to significant increases in highway road congestion. Efficient and reliable access to the rail facilities and ports are critical for our region’s ability to compete in the global economy. To relieve this congestion and provide for more efficient movement of freight and intermodal container movements, investments in freight-related projects are needed.
The following types of major freight and intermodal project needs were identified through various planning efforts of the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization (TPO), Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT), Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT), Ocean Highway and Port Authority (Port of Fernandina) and the Jacksonville Aviation Authority.
Mile Point Navigation Improvements Jacksonville Harbor Deepening Rail capacity projects for CSX, Norfolk Southern and
FEC Intermodal Yard Improvements and access for CSX,
Norfolk Southern and FEC North Area/Jacksonville Rail Corridor Port access improvements at the Port of Fernandina
The total cost of the needs is $3.4 billion. In addition to these needs, future needs that were identified based on the market demand analysis include:
The need for additional rail intermodal facility capacity beyond the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility (ICTF) at Dames Point. Currently the FEC’s and Norfolk Southern’s regional intermodal facilities are operating near practical capacity. About 1 million intermodal container twenty-foot equivalency units or (TEUs) are being shipped in North Florida today. This market is anticipated to grow to 2.8 to 4.3 million TEUs by the year 2040. Additional intermodal facility capacity is needed to meet this demand. One potential solution to meet this need is the development of a public-private partnership for a joint-use intermodal facility.
Additional track improvement projects beyond the adopted needs plan may be needed. The planned operation of commuter rail, and potentially intercity passenger rail service by Amtrak or a private operator, will place increased demand on the rail track operational capacity within the region. Several system bottlenecks are likely to restrict the ability to meet the rail service demand. These include the Springfield Switch, FEC Rail Crossing of the St. Johns River and the Crawford Diamond crossing of CSX and Norfolk Southern. Additional rail operational modeling is needed for the region to identify other bottlenecks and recommend specific solutions to address these needs.
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