Welcome to a Webinar

on the

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

Silver Jackets Webinar Series

Partnering Opportunities No. 4

May 31, 2017

Peter Colohan

• Director of Service Innovation and Partnership for

the Office of Water Prediction at NOAA.

• Served as a senior advisor to Obama

Administration officials on environmental data,

climate, water, and drought.

• Served NOAA as a consultant in international

coordination of Earth observations and

environmental monitoring. Facilitated the

establishment of the Group on Earth Observations

(GEO), an intergovernmental body.

• Degrees from the College of William and Mary in

Virginia and American University’s School of

International Service.

Integrated Water Prediction

at NOAA

1

Presentation to Silver Jackets May 31, 2017

Presentation Outline

• Impetus for Change

• NOAA Water Initiative

• Integrated Water Prediction Plans

• New Water Prediction Service

• Summary

2

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LIT

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Too much, too little, poor quality

WATER RISKS

November 28, 2012May 10, 2011

25 miles

Grand Challenge Example:

Mississippi River above Memphis, TN

Transform information into intelligence by linking hydrologic, infrastructural,

economic, demographic, environmental, and political data.

FloodingWater

QualityWater

AvailabilityDrought

Climate

Variability &

Change

Need integrated understanding of near- and long-term outlook and risks

Actionable Water InformationHigh Resolution, Integrated Water Analyses, Predictions and Data

INITIAL STAKEHOLDER PRIORITIES

Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS): Partners and Missions

Collaborative Science-Based Solutions to Address Societal Needs

Water Information: Collects and disseminates reliable,

impartial, and timely information needed to understand the Nation's

water resources to minimize loss of life and property from natural

disasters

US Army Corps

of Engineers

Water Prediction: Provide weather, water, and climate data,

forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.

IWRSS Partnership

will expand over time

IWRSS Partnership anticipated to expand over time

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Water Management: Strengthens our Nation's security,

energizes the economy, and reduces risks from disasters

FEMAResponse and Mitigation: Supports our citizens and first

responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards

NOAA Water InitiativeOverarching Goal: Transform water information service delivery

to better meet and support evolving societal needs

• User-Oriented, informed by Regional and National Conversations on Integrated Water Information

• Leverages the National Water Center to provide next-generation, science-based water information and decision support services.

• Calls for collaboration across federal agencies and with partners outside government

• Released in December 2016

http://www.noaa.gov/water

Improve Modeling & Prediction

Enhance Water-Related Observations

Strengthen Decision Support Tools

Enhance Partnerships and Service Delivery

Accelerate Research & Development

Informed by social science

NOAA Water InitiativeKey Objectives and Outcomes

Integrated Water Prediction and

the Office of Water Prediction

(OWP) – Multi-Year Planning

FY 15-19

FY 16-20

FY 17-21

Proposed

TBD

TBD

Centralized

Water

Forecasting

Flash

Flood and

Urban

Hydrology

Coastal

Total Water

Level

Dry Side:

Drought

and Post-

Fire

Water

Quality

National Water

Model (NWM)

operational [V1.0

Aug. 2016]

Water forecasts for 2.7 million stream reaches

Expand from only flow/stage forecasts to forecasts of full water budget

100 million people get a terrestrial water forecast for first time

Forecasts linked to geospatial informational to provide water intelligence

Enhance NWM with

nested hyper-

resolution zoom

capability and urban

hydrologic processes

Heightened focus on

regions of interests

(e.g. follow storms)

Street level flood

inundation forecasts

for selected urban

demonstration areas

NWC increases

guidance to NWS field

offices to improve

consistency and

services for flash

floods

Core Capability

Key Enhancement

Major Integration

Couple NWM with

marine models to

predict combined

storm surge, tide, and

riverine effects

More complete

picture of coastal

storm impacts

Summit-to-sea water

prediction information

linked to geospatial

risk and vulnerability

New service delivery

model implemented

– increased

stakeholder

engagement and

integrated information

NWC operations

center opens and

provides national

decision support

services and

situational

awareness

Couple NWM with

groundwater and

transport models to

predict low flows,

drought and fire

impacts

Add NWM processes

that capture subsurface

water movement and

storage during dry

conditions

Add NWM ability to track

constituents (e.g.

sediment, contaminants,

nutrients) through

stream network

New decision support

services for water

shortage situations and

waterborne transport

NWC operations center

expands to include

drought and post-fire

decision support

services

Key Enhancement

Major Integration

Integrate enhanced

NWM with key water

quality data sets,

models and tools to

begin water quality

prediction

Incorporate water

quality data from

federal and State

partners into NWM

Link NWM output to

NOAA ecological

forecasting operations

New decision support

services for predicting

water quality issues

such as Harmful Algal

Blooms

New decision support

services for

emergencies such as

chemical spills

NWC operations

center expands to

include water quality

decision support

services

Integrated Water PredictionSetting the Stage for Transformation

•National Water Model

(NWM) Development and

Demonstration

•Centralized Water Resources Data Services

•Water Resources Test and Evaluation Service

• Hyper-Resolution

Modeling

• Real-Time Flood Forecast Inundation Mapping

• Enhance Impact-Based Water Resources Decision Support Services

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• Stand up the National Water Center Operations Center

• Couple terrestrial freshwater and coastal estuary models for total water predictions in the coastal zone

• Increase high performance computing capacity

Centralized Water Forecasting

Demonstration (2015)

Integrated Water

Prediction

(2017 Proposed)

Enhanced Water Prediction Capability

(2016)

• HEFS aims to “capture” observed flow consistently

• So, must account for total uncertainty & remove bias

• Total = forcing uncertainty + hydrologic uncertainty

Goal: forecast range of possible flows

Forecast horizon

Stre

amfl

ow Hydrologic uncertainty

Weather (forcing) uncertainty in flow

Observed streamflow

Total

Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service (HEFS)

National Water Model v1.1Analysis and Forecast Cycling Configurations

Cycling Forecast Forcing Outputs

Model output available at: https:water.noaa.gov

Movie (slide show to view)

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbA2KoYSEsg

(click to play movie)

NATIONAL WATER CENTER

Regional Example of National Output

Statement on High-Level Requirement at the Coast

Effective creation and delivery of total-water level, flow,

and quality information in the coastal zone, to serve as an

authoritative source of actionable intelligence to inform

decisions in coastal communities, economies, and

ecosystems.

- April 26, 2017 – Coastal Inundation Summit Outcome

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Integrated accounting for all sources of coastal flood inundation within the National Water Model

• Inland freshwater runoff, tides, storm surge and wave action

• Couple terrestrial hydrology and coastal/estuarine modeling systems within Earth System framework

IWP Will Enable Prediction of the Total Water Level in the Coastal Zone

5 ft Inland

Freshwater

Runoff

(floodwave)

National Water CenterInitial Operating Capacity: May 26, 2015

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A catalyst to transform NOAA’s water prediction program

Mission: Nationally Integrated Water Prediction

• Center of excellence for water resources science and prediction

• Interagency and Academia Collaboration

• Operations Center for water resources common operating picture and decision support services

• Proving ground to accelerate research to operations

• Earth system modeling and geo-intelligence

National Water Center Annual Innovators Program

• Partnership between NWS and the academic community via an Interagency Agreement with the National Science Foundation and CUAHSI with two fundamental goals:

– Provide a Framework for Collaboration– Target Emerging Technologies

• Year one included a competitive Summer Institute for 44 graduate students from 19 Universities at the National Water Center, June 1 to July 17, 2015

– Demonstrated ability to simultaneously model the entire continental United States river network at high spatial resolution, in near real-time for 2.7 million stream reaches

• Year two included a competitive Summer Institute for 34 graduate students from 21 Universities at the National Water Center, June 6 to July 21, 2016

– Demonstrated the ability to generate flood inundation maps utilizing NWM output

– Engaged social scientists and stakeholders from the Fire, Police and Emergency Management Communities to explore ways to best communicate water information

Summary

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• NOAA’s Water Services are Evolving– We are building a foundation for change – but have a long way to go

– A continental scale modeling approach producing consistent, high fidelity information is needed to address growing stakeholder needs

– Stakeholder input will continue to inform future development activities, and the delivery and evolution of new services

– Deliver comprehensive, integrated actionable water intelligence

• Implementing State-of-the-Art Technical Approach– Water prediction through state-of-the-science earth system modeling

– Impact-based decision support services underpinned by geo-intelligence

• Scale Change: Orders of Magnitude More Data– Reach-based “Street Level” prediction

– High Performance Computing

• New Organization, Cornerstone Facility and Philosophy– Office of Water Prediction/National Water Center

– Collaborative, cross-NOAA, interagency, academic partnerships

BACK UP SLIDES

National Water ModelInitial Operating Capability – v1.0 implemented in Aug. 2016

• Spatially continuous estimates of major water cycle components (snowpack, soil moisture, channel flow, major reservoir inflows, flood inundation)

• Operational forecast streamflow guidance for currently underserved locations: 3,600 forecast points -> 2.7 million (NHDPlus river reaches)

• Implement an Earth system modeling architecture that permits rapid model evolution of new data, science and technology (i.e. WRF-Hydro)

• Ongoing Water Resource Evaluation Service (WRES) and Data Service (WRDS) to compliment implementation efforts

Current NWS River Forecast Points

overlaid with NWM Stream Reaches

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2

1

1. Forecast discharge with National Water Model

2. Convert discharge to depth using rating curve

3. Convert depth to inundationusing HAND(relative elevation of water surface above cell in NHDPlus stream to which it flows)

Flood Inundation Mapping

Source: Yan Liu and Hu Hao, University of Illinois

at Urbana-ChampaignDavid R. Maidment

University of Texas at Austin