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© OECD/IEA 2012
Paris Energy Meeting
IEA-Russia Round Table, 2 July 2012
Markus Wråke, ETP Project Leader, Head of Energy Supply Unit, Directorate of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology , IEA
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
© OECD/IEA 2012
6DS where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
Centralised fuel production,power and storage
A smart, sustainable energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
Centralised fuel production,power and storage
Renewable energy resources
EV
Co-generation
Smart energysystem control
Distributedenergy resources
Surplus heat
H vehicle2
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Other
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass and waste
Oil
Gas with CCS
Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS
TW
h
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
TWh
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
53%
27%
2%
1%
7%
28%
22%
23%
10%
9%
13%
7%
10%
4%
21%
28%
4%13%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
Ge
ne
rati
on
sh
are
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Solar
Hydro
Fossil w/o CCS
Fossil w CCS
2009 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
All flexibility sources will be needed
Dispatchable power plants
Energy storage facilities
Interconnection with adjacent
markets
Biomass-fired power plant
Pumped hydro facility
Scandinavian interconnections
Demand side Response
(via smart grid)
Industrial
residential
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pow
er
Genera
tion f
rom
Natu
ral G
as
TW
h
OECD China India Other non-OECD
Natural Gas: a transitional fuel
© OECD/IEA 2012
Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas is not a panacea
CCS must play a role if gas use should be high
Natural Gas is not a panacea
© OECD/IEA 2012
The CCS infant must grow quickly
© OECD/IEA 2012
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt
CO
2
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric vehicles need to come of age
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
FCEV
Electricity
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need
to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050
Passenger
LD
V s
ale
s (
mill
ion)
© OECD/IEA 2012
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Bill
ion h
ousehold
s
Building sector challenges differ
OECD Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating & Cooling: huge potential
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use. Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
Integration with electricity
Surplus heatCo-generation
Renewable heat
District heating andcooling network
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without price effect
With price effect
Additional investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fu
el s
avin
gs
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional investment
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without price effect
With price effect
Additional investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fu
el s
avin
gs
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional investment
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without price effect
With price effect
Additional investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fu
el s
avin
gs
Additional investment
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
© OECD/IEA 2012
Russia’s CO2 emissions need to drop dramatically
The power and industry sectors account for over half of the reductions relative to the 2DS
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtC
O2
6DS
Agriculture, other 0%
Other transformation 15%
Power 35%
Industry 21%
Transport 10%
Buildings 8%
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fossil-fuel based electricity generation drops by almost half in Russia by 2030
Increased electricity generation from nuclear and renewables is the key for Russia to get on track
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Coal Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables Total
TW
h
4DS 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Huge efficiency potential in industry
Energy efficiency measures through BATs brings 50% of the CO2 reductions
A fuel mix dominated by natural gas is also key
© OECD/IEA 2012
Hybrid, plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles will be key to increasing vehicle efficiency in Russia
Electrifying Russian transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
Limiting buildings’ energy use
Effective implementation of energy efficiency policies critical
Large-scale refurbishment of ageing buildings to stringent code levels
© OECD/IEA 2012
Russia’s room to manoeuvre
ETP 2012 projects a very different path for Russia
High average age of infrastructure brings opportunity
Creation of Russian Technology Platforms
Presidential focus on innovation and modernisation
Overall investment environment
Regulatory framework needs to be completed
IEA stands ready to work with Russia
© OECD/IEA 2012
Sustainable future still in reach
© OECD/IEA 2012
Are we on track to reach a clean
energy future?
NO ✗
Can we get on track?
YES ✓
Is a clean energy transition urgent?
YES ✓
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
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