Climate Change Adaptation Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector in the in the Water Sector in the

Middle East & North Africa Region: Middle East & North Africa Region: A Review of Main IssuesA Review of Main Issues

PAP/RAC WorkshopSardinia

May 19-21, 2008

Fadi M. Doumani

METAP

ContentContent

What is Climate Change (CC)?

What is the MENA Water Sector State (WS)?

How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?

What are the Suggested Responses?

What is Climate Change?What is Climate Change?CC is any long-term significant change in the

average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans that a given region experiences

CC is human-made: science established a causal effect between the acceleration of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and CC effects in the IPCC 4

GHG (CO2, CH4 and N2O) emissions shot past a safe level of 350 ppm by the end of the 80s and stand at 385 ppm per volume in the Earth’s atmosphere

What is Climate Change?What is Climate Change?Six scenarios with different assumptions were

developed to simulate GHG projections and their effects on CC until 2100

Source: IPCC 4 (2007).

What is Climate Change?What is Climate Change?Main GHG emission effects on CC are: -Average global surface temperature will likely

rise between 0.6° to 4° Celsius by 2100

Source: IPCC 4 (2007).

What is Climate Change?What is Climate Change?

-Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land and semi-arid regions (by as much as about 20% in the A1B scenario in 2100

-In semi-arid areas, droughts will increase and runoffs will decrease

-The ice cap will shrink and sea level will rise by a likely range between 0.18 and 0.59 meter by 2100

What is the MENA Water Sector State?What is the MENA Water Sector State?3 aspects of the water sector are covered:

-Renewable Water (RW) Availability in 2004

-Water Use in 2004

-Water Services in 2004But first, a definition of RW availability: -Water security: ≥ 1,700 m3 pc pa of RW

-Water stress: ≥ 1,000 and < 1,700 m3 pc pa of RW

-Water scarcity: ≥ 500 and < 1,000 m3 pc pa of RW

-Water absolute scarcity: < 500 m3 pc pa of RW

What is the MENA Water Sector State?What is the MENA Water Sector State?RW Availability. MENA region: Most water stressed region in the world (1,100 m3)3 water groups: arid, hyper-arid and transboundary

RW PC PA

RW PC PA

Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).

What is the MENA Water Sector State?What is the MENA Water Sector State?

RW Availability. MENA region is characterized byAridity, desertification and coastal density; and

by

Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).

What is the MENA Water Sector State?What is the MENA Water Sector State?low precipitation, high evaporation, and

increased droughts, flooding and weather extreme

People Affected by Floods, Droughts and Extreme WeatherMENA Region 1988-07 (000')

0

10

1,000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Year

Peop

le A

ffect

ed

(log

scal

e)

Flood

Drought

Extreme Weather

Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a); and Author.

What is the MENA Water Sector State?What is the MENA Water Sector State?

Water Use. MENA region is characterized by:Highest RW withdrawal region (75%); and by

Water Use Share Total Water Withdrawal to Total Renewable

Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).

What is the MENA Water Sector State?What is the MENA Water Sector State?An important share allocated to the agriculture

sector (±85%) with low value-added GDP per km3 (US$ 701) and low yield

An increased reliance on desalination to augment water supply Sector Water Use

Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).

What is the MENA Water Sector State?What is the MENA Water Sector State?Water Services are characterized by:Inadequate governance (accountability, planning,

financing, organizational capacity, etc.) affecting both access (87%) and water-related diseases (22 death per 100,000 from diarrhea mainly in rural)

Poor utility performance (water losses between 30 and 60% and operating cost coverage ratio less than 1; and

Low agricultural water requirement ratio that measures the agricultural efficiency and ranges between 0.3 and 0.5.

How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?

Source: IPCC 4 (2007).

Impact on 5Categories but we will focus on water and health

How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?The CC effects in the MENA region by 2050 are

(figures should be used with care):

-Higher temperatures by +2.5 degree C

-Lower precipitation by >-10.5%

-Lower runoffs between -20 and -30%

-Sea level rise by 0.39 meter.

-Accelerating drought cycle especially in NAfrica

-Burden of disease marginal increase (water-related, cardio-respiratory and vector-borne diseases, malnutrition and injuries)

How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State? Demographic growth (+2% in 2000s) will put more

pressure on RW with an urban population increasing by 93% between 1995-2050

RW pc pa will decrease by more than half to less than 550 m3 putting the region in water absolute scarcity state

Water Use: Domestic share will exceed 20% putting additional stress on the agriculture sector

Water Services: all governance, access, efficiency and water-related disease indicators will deteriorate

How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?

2004 MENA RW: M3 Per Capita

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Arid Hyper-Arid Transboundary

M3 p

er c

apita

2004 RW PC

2050 MENA RW: M3 Per Capita

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Arid Hyper-Arid Transboundary

M3 p

er c

apita

2050 RW PC

Without CC With CC

Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002); United Nations (2007); and Author

2050 MENA RFW with -20% CC Effects: M3 Per Capita

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Arid Hyper-Arid Transboundary

M3 p

er c

apita

2050 RW PC

How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State?Runoff Reduction by 2100

Source: IPCC 4 (2007).

Drought Severity by 2100

What are the Suggested Responses?What are the Suggested Responses?The MENA region public and private human,

social, capital, natural and cultural assets at stake from future CC effects

Three responses are suggested:

-Knowledge response

-Mitigation response

-Adaptation response

What are the Suggested Responses?What are the Suggested Responses?Better knowledge response

-Transparent awareness campaign (proactive media and universities) could help ensure an inclusive and participatory CC mitigation/ adaptation planning and implementation process

-Mainstream CC in school and university curriculum

-Adapt/set up knowledge-based CC infrastructure (GIS, meteorological indicators, hydrological cycle, etc.)

What are the Suggested Responses?What are the Suggested Responses?Better adaptation response

-MENA region contributes between 3.5 and 5% to the global GHG emissions but the emissions growth has outpaced all the other regions (1995-2004)

-Opportunity to improve energy efficiency (electricity and energy) by tapping carbon funding mechanism and switching to abundant renewable energies (solar and wind in some regions)

What are the Suggested Responses?What are the Suggested Responses?

Better mitigation response requires climate-proof sector-wide water reforms by:

-Balancing water demand (water allocated to its

highest use value) and supply (e.g., drip irrigation, water reuse, desalination) and build-in system responsive to variations

What are the Suggested Responses?What are the Suggested Responses?

-Improving governance (e.g., integrated planning, organization, decision-making, management and resource mobilization), equity, justice and preservation of the commons

-Increasing efficiency (agriculture, domestic)

-Enhancing natural disaster and health service preparedness

What are the Suggested Responses?What are the Suggested Responses?Water sector reforms could already help

contain, delay and mitigate CC effects (Morocco has embarked on a long term programmatic reform with the World Bank)

Looking at reducing the distortions of drivers could also help increase the effectiveness of water sector reforms (coherent growth strategy that encompasses population, poverty, urbanization, tourism and agriculture drivers) and increase the climate-proofing efforts

Thank You for Your Valuable TimeThank You for Your Valuable Time

Introduction of the Carbon Funding of Waste Emission Presentation

Source: IPCC 4 (2007).

Global GHG emissions (in Giga tons or billion of tons) are illustrated by compound

and sector over the 1970-2004 period.