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Panel on Technology and
Economic Development
•European Foundation Centre
4 June 2002
•ROBERT [email protected]
Manager for Central & Eastern Europe
GLOBAL INTERNET POLICY INITIATIVE
(GIPI)
• What is the need for the development of ICT infrastructure in developing countries?
• What are the constraints to ICT development?
• How can foundations and other donor organisations overcome these constraints and provide effective assistance?
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INFORMATION
LITERACYELECTRICITY
PURCHASING POWER
SKILLS
SECTORAL OVERVIEW
•Telephony•Internet•Computing
THE GOOD NEWS (1)
• Telecom market liberalization is proliferating and it works.– rapid increase in teledensity, lower
prices, and better service– important pressure for change from EU
and mobile phone companies
• Incumbent telecom operators fully or partly privatized in 113 countries
“Encouragingly, the fastest growing nations recently have been the least developed countries (LDCs). They surpassed the psychological threshold of one telephone user per 100 inhabitants during 2001. This is an unmistakable sign that the digital divide is being reduced, albeit at too slow a pace.”
---World Telecommunication Development Report 2002: Reinventing Telecoms (ITU)
“TOP 10” IN TELEDENSITY GROWTH, 1991-2001
Cambodia = *Viet Nam =
+4200%China = +2967%Philippines =
+1240%Botswana =
+1026%
El Salvador = +908%
Morocco = +831%Paraguay = +767% Jamaica = +758%Cape Verde =
+717%* Cambodia had zero teledensity in 1991
“BOTTOM 10” IN TELEDENSITY GROWTH,
1991-2001
Liberia = -50%Iraq = - 25%Tajikistan = -20%Angola = -12%Armenia = -6%
Uzbekistan = 0%Kyrgyzstan = +10%North Korea = +21%Comoros = +25%Turkmenistan = +40%
THE GOOD NEWS (2)• Wireless mobile telephony may
solve the problem of “universal access”– Penetration not initially dependent on
GDP!
• In 22 of 49 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) there are more mobile than fixed phone subscribers
PHONES: MOBILE NOW OVERTAKING FIXED-LINES
Data: ITU (2001)
Significant economic benefit:
Mobile phones enable more efficient & productive use of time
COUNTRIES WITH MORE MOBILE THAN FIXED-LINE
SUBSCRIBERS
Map: ITU (2002)
THE GOOD NEWS (3)
• Internet gateways in 214 countries now– access monopoly in only 14 countries
• The proportion of Internet users in developing countries increased from 2% to 23% of the total user population during the past decade - even as the total user population grew 11,477%!!
COUNTRIES WITH INTERNET HOSTS
214211200
818 22
3443
60
81
121
191
165
0
50
100
150
200
250
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Data: ITU, 2001
COUNTRIES WITH NO INTERNET HOSTS CAN STILL HAVE INTERNET
USERS• Djibouti (1,000)• Equatorial
Guinea (600)• Haiti (6,000)• Iraq (12,500)• North Korea (?)
• Sudan (28,000)• Syria (32,000)• Zaire (?)• …and 7 remote
island nations: Maldives (6,000), Reunion (10,000), etc.
Data: Internet Software Consortium, NUA
COUNTRIES WITH <0.1% INTERNET PENETRATION
Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bhutan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equitorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Laos, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, North Korea, Papua-New Guinea, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Zaire
Data: ITU (2001)
Net-users vs. Teledensity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00
Teledensity
Ne
t-u
se
rs a
s %
of
po
pu
lati
on
INTERNET USAGE MOST BELOW “NORMAL” FOR THEIR
TELEDENSITY• Luxembourg (!)• St. Kitts & Nevis• Martinique• Guadeloupe• Guam• Barbados
• Virgin Islands• Greece• Cyprus• Bahamas• Ukraine• Granada
INTER-REGIONAL INTERNET BACKBONE
357 Mb/s
19,716 Mb/s
Asia-Pacific
LatinAmerica &Caribbean
2,638 Mb/s
127 Mb/s
Arab States, Africa
468 Mb/s 171
Mb/s
Europe
USA &USA &CanadaCanada 56,241 Mb/s
Data: ITU (2001)
IN ICTs GENERALLY...
• The gap between “Developed” and “Emerging” countries is narrowing...
• But the gap between “Emerging” and “Least Developed” countries is widening…
• LDC progress is significant but spotty
THE BAD NEWS (1)
• 50-fold improvement in PC hardware produced only a modest lowering of the price of an entry-level machine.– Improvement mostly absorbed by
operating system “bloat”
• Near-future Internet growth could be limited by PC penetration
WILL THE SLOWER GROWTH IN PC OWNERSHIP LIMIT INTERNET GROWTH?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700M
illions
PCs
Internet users
THE GOOD NEWS (4)
WHAT TO SUPPORT?
• Academic networks and computers in schools
• PC networks for parliamentarians and their staff
• Training (especially for civil servants, teachers and judges)
WHAT TO SUPPORT?
• Creation and maintainance of locally relevant content
• Open-source software for public administration
• Program-related investment in international connectivity
WHAT TO SUPPORT?
• Trade associations for Internet cafes and ISPs
• Online freedom of expression and Internet users’ privacy rights
• Legal treatment of the Internet as speech, rather than as broadcasting
“To build sustainable networks, you've got to have local hands cultivating local
expertise.” ---Steve Huter
Network Startup Resource Centerhttp://www.nsrc.org/
Global Internet Policy Initiative (GIPI)
• Founded December 2000
– Partnership between Internews and the Center for Democracy and Technology
• Administrative Center in Paris, France
• Policy Center in Washington, DC
GIPI offices in:
• Armenia• Azerbaijan• Belarus• Bulgaria• Georgia• India• Indonesia• Kazakhstan
• Kyrgyz Republic• Nigeria• Romania• Russia• Serbia• Tajikistan• Ukraine• Uzbekistan
GIPI offices soon in:
• Bosnia-Herzegovina• Vietnam• anywhere else that the
development of the Internet is hindered by public policies.
How GIPI works (1)
• Hire qualified local people - usually a lawyer, activist or ISP.
• Give them backup and support from Internet policy experts in other countries, plus access to shared resources within GIPI.
How GIPI Works (2)• Identify the main local problems in
Internet development, possible solutions and opportunities for reform.
• Join or create working groups with key stakeholders (businesses, service providers, government officials & NGOs) to develop consensus for policy changes.
