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; 0UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION

BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD

In the iMatter of

PACIFIC GAS PND ELECTRIC COMPANY

(Diablo Canyon Nuclear Po~:er Plant,Unit Nos. 1 and 2)

Docket Nos. 50-275 O.L.50-323 O.L.

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SUPPLEMENTAL TESTIMONY FOR THE NRC STAFFBY

JOHN A. PATTERSON~ ON CONTENTION 2A

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'QJohn A. Patterson

Division of Hucleax'uel Cycle and P=oductionU. S'. Energy Reseaxch and Development Administration

In this statement I wi11 review infoxmation availaole to the

~ergy Research and Dev'elopment Administration (ERDA) on the

domestic urania resource situation and the out3.ook fordevelopment ox additional domestic supp'.es,. availabil'tyof foreign u=anium, and the relationship ox uranium supply

to planned nuclear genex'ating capacity.

Analysis of uranium xesources and their availability has been

carried out by the govenment since the late 1940s. The work

was carried out for many years by the Atomic Enex'gy Commission.

The activity was made part of the Enexgy Reseaxch and Develop-

ment Administration (~A) when, the agency was cxeated inearly 1975.

U. S. Resource Position

To establish some basic concepts, a review of resourc concepts

~and nomenclature would be worthwhile. Figzre 1 is a chaxt ofresource categories based on varying geologic knowledge and on

varying economic availability. Resources designated as ore

reserves have the hi'ghest assurance regarding their magnitude

and economic availability. Estimates of reserves are based

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on detailed sampling data, primarily from gamma xay logs ofIdrill holes. ERDA obtains basic data from industry from its

ezpI.oration effort and estimates the reserves in individual'deposits. In. estimating ore reserves, detailed studies offeasible mining, transportation, and milling techniques and,

costs axe made. Consistent engineering, geologic, and

economic criteria axe employed. The methods used are the

result of over 25 years effnxt in uranium resou ce evaluation..r

.Resources that do not meet the stringent requirements ofreserves are classed as potential resou ces. For its study

of resources, ERDA subdivides potential resources intothree categories: probable, possible, and speculative.—1/

Probable resources axe those contained within favorable

txends, largely delineated by drilling, within productive

uranium districts (i.e., districts having more than, 10 tons

U308 product ion and reserves ) . Quantitative estimates ofpoten.tial resources axe made by considering the extent of the

identified favorable areas and by comparing certain geolo'gic

characteristics with those associated wi;th known oxe deposits.

1/ GJO-ill(76) Hational Uranium Resource Evaluation Pre-liminary Report, Grand Junction Office, E'.U)A, June 1976.

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Possible potential resources are outside of identified mineral

trends but are in geologic provinces and formations that have

been productive. Speculative resources are those estimated tooccur in foxmations or geologic provinces which have not been

productive but which, based on the evaluation of available

geologic 'data, are considered to be favorable for the

occurrence of uranium deposits.

The reliability of the estimates of potential uranium resources

differs fox'ach of the three potential classes. The reliabil'tyof probable potential estimates is greatest in view of the more

complete information, a 'result of the extensive explorationand development in the major uranium districts. T.t is least

for speculative potential for axeas with no significant uranium

deposits, for which favorability is detexmined, from available

knowledge on the characteristics of the geologic envt'r'onment.

Since any evaluation of resources is dependent upon the

availability of infoxmation, the estimates themselves are,

to a large degree, a score card on the state of development

of information. Thus appraisal of United States uranium

x'esources is heavily dependent upon the completeness ofexploration efforts and the availability of. subsurface

geologic data. Since the geology of the United States

as it: relates to mineral deposits can never be completely

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known in detail, it will not be possible to produce a truelycomplete appraisal of domestic uranium resources. Given the

natura and cuxx'ent status of ERDA estimates, however, so fax~ as an overall appxaisal of the United States is concerned, it

is more likely that the total resouxces eventually will prove

larger than px'esent estimates than that they will be less.

The key question may be the timeliness with which resou ces

are identified, developed and produced.

Conceptually, a resource, whethex u anium ox'ther minexal

commodity, would initially be in the potential category.

Development of additional data and clarification of px'oduction

techniques and economics is required until the point is x'cached

that specif.c ore deposits are delineated and understood to a

degree that they can be categorized as reserves.

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Qel can expect that there willbe a dynamic balance between

anticipated ma kets and prices 'and the extent to whichez-'loration

and reserve delineation will be done. There isno economic incentive for industry to expand reserves,

the additional uranium will not be needed for many yeaxs

ahead, especially if the long-texm maxket outlook is uncextain.

This has been so for uranium. The mining companies axe concen-

trating on maxkets fox the next, 5 to 15 years. The utilitiesand government axe concerned with the outlook for the next

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to 40 years. Conversion of the presently estimated

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potential resources into ore reserves will take many years

and will cost several billion dollars. It would be difficultto economically justify accelerating such an effort to

delineate,o e reserve levels equal to lifetime xequixements

of all planned reactors covering some 30-40 yeaxs in the

future simply to satisfy planners.

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Supply assurance th-ough continued timely additions to

resexves and maintenance of a resource base adequate to

support production demands, coupled with carefully developed

information on potential resources is considered to be adequate

and a more realistic and economic approach. The conversion ofpotential resources to ore reserves and expansion of pxoduction

facilities can be accomplished when needed as markets elandand production is needed.

The vertical dimension in H.gure 1 relates to the impact ofincreasing production costs on. resource availability. Highex

prices axe needed to produce ores of lower quality and those

with more difficult mining or. milling characteristics. Such

reserves, though well delineated, are not. available if prices

are too low'.

The domestic uranium industry has, over most of its lifetime,been concerned with discovery'nd production of uranium at

costs in the $ 8-$ 10/lb; range ox less. Average prices for

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uranium deliveries in 1975 axe reported t:o be $ 10.50 per pound

of U308.— Xa view of the economic acceptability of.higher2/

cost uranium in react:ors, resouxce estimates by ERDA in recent.- years have included resources that ~ould be available at $ 15

'nd $30 production cuto. f costs;+ However, because of the

lesser experience with $ 15 and $ 30 resouxces, they are not as

fully delineat:ed or as well understood as the $ 10 xesouxces.

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At cost. levels above $ 30 per pound, there has been littleeffort at appraisal of resources ox in exploration. 'Therefoxe,

these resources are poorly ~own at present and quantitativeestimates axe not possible'(with the exception of the

Chattanooga shale to be discussed later). Such=resources

are Known to ezist, and efforts are under way to. appraise

them.

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Xn Figxx'e 2 axe t:abulated ERDA estimates of domestic uranium

resources following t:he conceptua1 arrangement: of Figure 1.

These estimates reflect the results of the. pxel~ary phase

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2/ ERDA 76-46, Survey of U. S. Uranium Marketing Activity,April 1976.

* Cutoff costs are axbitraxy" reference costs used. for resouxceevaluation that consider operating and future capital expen-ditures for mining, transporting and processing the ores.These costs are used to determine the quality limits ofmaterial to be included in a resouxce estimate. Cutof-

. cost:s should not be confused with prices which are determinedby total cost, profit, and. market place considerations.

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Q3of the ERDA Hational Uran'um Resouxce Evaluation (NURE) program.I

The resources estimates in the preliminary phase of the NURE

'xogram..tota3.ed3.7 million tons up to a production cost of$ 30. Of this 640,000 tons are S.n the oxe reserve category.

An addf.tional estimated 140,000 tons S.s attributed to byproduct,

material thxough the year 2000.

3:n this eva3.uation program, the nation has been divided S.nto

study areas as shown in dvigu e 3. Por comparison,, the major

known uranium areas in the U. S„such as the Colorado Plateau,

gyoming Basins and Texas Gu3.f Coastal PlaS.n, are shown inFigure 4.

The geographic distribution of estimated potentia3. resources

is shown in Pi~e 5.

On3y limited data are available for'uch of the country and

estimates fox'hese ar'eas wil3. be laxgely in the speculative

category, or unassessed, for some time. The pxel~axyphase of the RZZ program has identS.fied additional areas with

geologic chaxacterS.sties favorable fox the occurrence of~ uranium deposits, but fox which data was inadequate fox

evaluatS.on of potential resources. The location of areas

with estimated potential resou ces and other favorable areas

is shown in Pkmxre 6. The HURE program will develop considerable

.'dditional basic information, in the next several years, which

:.I 0 3/ GJO 111(76} HatS.onal Uran'um Resource Evaluation PreliminaryReport, Grand Junction Office, ERDA, June 1976.

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will lead t:o a.'more compxehensive, in-depth evaluaticn of the

U. S. Long-term resource. outlook.

GAttainable production Leve3s

The domestic industry currently has a production'apacity of.

'around 16,000 tons U308 per yeaz.-. Plans have been reported

to expand capaci,ty to 24,000 tons per yeax, by 1978.— Iadustryg/

plans to spend $ 237 million in 1976 and $ 265 million in 1977~ ', l

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on new mining and mi ling capaci,ty, compared to $ 146 mi3.lion5/spent. in 1975-. Study of attainable production capabili,ty from

currently stimated )LS U. S. oxe reserves and px'obable potential~ resources indicates &at production 1eve3.s ox 50,000 to 60,000

.tons U308 per year can be achieved with aggressive resource

deralopment and exploitation. awhile the 1evel may be achievable

by use of dcmestic $ ~D ore reserves and prooable resources

alone, development and utilization ox $ 15 possible and specula-

tive categories and use of $30 ore reserves and potentialresoux'ces would provide added assurance that the Leve3.s could

be attained and sust:ained. Canside~g these resources and

that same hngorted u-anium will add to supplies, it is'onsideredrealistic. to plan on the basis that a 60,000 tons.per year supply

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is achievable from currently estimated resouxces. Such ag

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level could be reached by the early 1990s. It shou1d be noted that these

production levels account for mining and w'llkng losses and indicate 0308

avaf1able for use as nuclear fuel.

4./GJO 108(75) Uranium Indus~ Seminar, Octo'oer 1975, GrandJunction Office, EBDA, Page 170,172.

'5 j EHDA Release 76-119» "~mA Suxvey Endicates EKRe in Spendingfor Uranium Hieing, K~llin Facilit'es, Apx'il 26, 1976.

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Uranium Resource Availabilit

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As indicated earlier, ADA projects $30 ore reserves in the amount of

780,000 tons U308 and probabTe potential resources in the amount of

1,060,000 tons U308 for a tota1 of 1,840,000 tons U308. Se Figure

2. Evaluation of long-term fuel conmitments on the basis of ore

reserves and probable potential resources is considered a prudent

course for planning; and, as can be seen from the testimony of Harry~ f ~

E. P. Krug, Jr., such resources are adequate to supply the planned

population of 236 reactors over their lifetime. The analyses by

Mr. Krug demonstrat s that the uranium resourc s that I have

discussed will support substantially more than the 236 reactors

presently planned. The lifetime co~~ tment would be less than half

of currently estimated $ 30 domestic resources, including the possible

and specu1ative categories.'

would like now to briefly address the availability of estimated uranium

resources considering recoveries in mining and ore processing.

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In regard to estimates of U.S. uranium resourc s, these estimates represent

the quantity of uranium estimated to be minable expressed as tons U308

in ore in the ground. As pointed out in this testimony the estimates

are a reflection of the information" available to ERDA at the time of

the estimate and thus are dependent on the extant of exploration work

that has been per ormed. In view of the considerations involved in

preparing the resource estimates and the uranium supply outlook, no

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ac/ustment for losses is warranted.

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GU. S. mining practice results in recovery of high percentages of the

uranium contained in a deposit. ERDA resource estimation procedures

consider the capabilities and requirements of mining systens in use so

that the estimates are a realistic appraisal of what is minable. Since

deposits frequently are not fully delineated before Bey are developed,

it is not unusual for considerably more uranium to be recovered frcm

deposits than were included in ore reserves before such deposits were4

put into production. Mining company practice seeks to recover as much oT

the contained mineral content as possible before abandoning a mine. Higher

uranium prices provide a strong incentive for such practice. In the

processing of uranian ores, recoveries generally are over 90~. In 1975

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mill recovery averaged about 93.5 percent. Higher recoveries are usually

possible if economically justified.

Also there are additional resources. which will be available beyond the

currently estimates $ 30 reserves, byproduct, and probable potential

resources. The lifetime uranium needs of the sustainable level of

capacity noted would require only about hali of the $30 resources

including possible and speculative potential resource categories now

estimated for the U.S. 'Aith development of additional information on

U. S. resources, it is considered likely that the future estimates of

resources. in'.the. U.S. will be even larger than now estimated. The ERDA

National Uranium Resource Evaluation program and industry exploration will

expand the data available on U.S; resources leading to a more complete

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evaluation. Additional uranium supplies will be available from foreignsources, and, if needed through utilization of higher than $ 30 cost

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resources.

In vie<> of these factors, it is not considered meaningful to make adjust-

. ments to reserve and. resource estimates for possible future losses frcm

. mining and milling.

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Prospects for E~andine U. S. Su@el

The long-range (th-ouah the zest of the century and beyond)

supply outlook wi13. be largely influenced by the extent to

which the present resou-ce position is modified in the decades

ahead. There are three pr~cipal means by which the supply

position can change. First, through tha identification oZ

additional resources in, the less than $30/lb category; second17,

through utilization of already identified hiQez cost resources;

and thi d, tnrough utilization or foreign ruan un"'suoplies.

These means will be examined separately.

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Domestic $ 30 Resources

An evaluation oz the potential Zoz deve3.oping additional domestic

$ 30 uranium esouzces beyond those now es~ated involves the

following considerations:

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1 Experts.ence generally has been that minezaI. resources

ultimately prove la ge than can be estimated at any

time. Me are limited by what occurs in nature but a3.so,

and perhaps more so, by the degree of ouz knowledge.

Development of information on unknown oz poorly e~3.ored

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areas is likely to iac ease the estimate of resources.

As previ.ously noted, thexe is nationwide assessmeat. ofthe U. S. uranium positioa. The ~i effort is scheduled

to produce a nationwide In-depth assessment ia 1981.

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'Comparing the U. S. uranium resouxce position 10 yeaxs

ago with today's can illustx'ate the point. En 1966,

$ 10 ore reserves were estimated to be.195,000 tons U308.

Potential resources then estimated, which correspond tor

the current "probable" potential category plus a portionof the "possible" category, were 325,000 tons U308. Since

then 134,000 toas of U308 have beea produced. The present

estimates axe 270,000 .tons of reserves aad %0,000 tons ofprobable potential. Thus in the 10 years ovex'20,000 toas

were add d to these categories of resources. During the

period, the value of the dollar has declined to about607,'f

its 1966 value. Since inflation increases costs, moving

some osterial to higher cost categories, the 1976 resource

estimates would, have been higher measured ia 1966 dollars.

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2. Expansion of resources will depend oa the level of effortexpended. Increased e~loration activity can be e~ected

to improve the resource position. Exploration success per

unit of effort has been less in recent years, but inflation,has exaggerated the reduction since increasingly higher

gx'ade ores must be found at a given cost,to offset

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inflation. In addition, there has been a txead towaxd

deeper drilling, which increases the effort required.Exploration results in l975 show improved discovexy rates.

Industry investmeat activities wi,ll be influenced by nuclear

power growth and acceptance, uranium demand,, and pricemovements. As is the case of other raw materials com-

modities, increasing demands and higher prices should

lead to increased efforts by industxy to eland supplies.

3. Known U. S. uranium resources axe in a few comparativelyI

small areas as shown in Figure 4. The comparatively

small geographic areas of the mining districts withinthese areas suggests that significant undiscovered

districts can be overlooked.

4. Domestic ux'anium resources ia saadstoae deposits make

up ovex'57. of known U. S. low-cost resources. The

bu33c of resources in other parts of the world are inother types of geologic environments. A listing of

significant types of uranium deposits is shown inFigure 7'. The possibility exists for identificationof additional types of deposits in the U. S.

Industry Ezoloration ActivityThe major responsibility for discovering new uranium deposits

needed in the years ahead is with private industry, The

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footage drilled in search for uranium deposits in the U. S'.

for the 1ast sevex'al years is shown in Figure 8. Xn the

pex'iod 1967-69, a sharp increase in e~loration occurx'ed.

Exploration decreased in the eax'ly 1970s due to softening

in the ux'aaium market as a consequence oz the slippage inuranium demands. Xn 1973, utili.ties contracted fox 52,000

tons of U308, — a far greater px'ocurement effort than had6/

been previously seen, firming prices aad rekindling explorationinterest. As a result, e~loration began to increase again.

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As shown in Figzre 8, expenditures, for land acquisition, drillingand related activities reached a peak oz about $ 59 million in1969, dropped to $ 32, million ia 1972 but increased to an alltime high oz $ 122 million in 1975. Plans to ezpend $ 156

mills.oa ia 1976 and $ 168 million ia 1977 have been reported

to ERDA- . Although expenditures ax'e increasing,': he footage7/

drilled pex'ollar oz expenditure has been decreasing because

of highex- costs and a t end toward deeper drilling.

The results oz drilling are shown at the bottom of Figure 8

in terms of annual additions to ore reserves. Tt should be

noted that inflation during this period has been high,

therefore, the discovery rate measux'ed in terms of $8

6/ PASH-1196(74), Survey of the U. S. Uranium MarketingActivity, USAEC, April 1974.

7/" GJO-103(76) Ux'anium Ezploratioa Expenditures in 1975 aadPlans for 1976-77, Grand Junction Ofzice, ERDA, April 976.

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I C' x'esexves added in 1975 is aot direct1y comparable to those

added in 1969 and 1970. The 1969 $ 8 reserves axe comparable

in. 1975 to reserves at a cost of around $ 15 per pound. The

additions of $ 10, $ 15 aad $ 30 reserves ia the 1972-1975 period

are also. shown in Pigxxe 8 . The additions to $ 30 reserves

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increased substantially in 1975 even through aot all the data

from industry was available aad a number ox additional, deposits

ax'e known to have been discovered.

Ezpeaditures for uran'um ezploratioa have aot been large incomparison to the expenditures in other phases of nuclear

power. For example, the cost of a typical lax'ge reactoralone. (over $ 800 milU.on) will be substantially 1arger than

the total of $ 520 million spent in uranium exploration

(including land acquisitions,. drilling and related activities)T

in the entire coun~ over- the period 1966 thxough 1975.

Technolo Develonmeat

Improved technology has in the. past provided a means forexpanding available resources of minerals. There have been

a number of developments in uranium that are improving the

supply situatioa and others are Likely to be developed in'the years ahead. Of current interest is the use of ia situleaching methods where the e~action of the uranium isaccomplished .by pumping leach solutions down drill holes,

thxough the ore zone, and back to the surface. for treatment.

Such plants axe operating in Texas and, othexs are planned.

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An additional development is the improved process for recovery

of uranium from phosphor"c acid. A plant is starting operationin Florida, and several others are planned. If all the phos-

phoric acid currently produced in the large p3.ants in Florida "

were treated, about 3,000 tons U308 per year 'could be recovered.

Production may reach this level by the early 1980s, and futureincreased wil3. follow as phosphoric acid production expands.

Government Uranium Resouxc~ ActivitiesIn view of the need to understand better the long-range

prospects for expanc'.ed domestic uranium supply for reactor

development strategy and planning and to assure adequate

uranium supplies to fuel nuclear power growth, the ERDA iscarrying out programs to assess more completely domestic

resources and to improve techno3.ogy for discovery, assessment,

and produ'ction of these resources. The basic elements in the

ERDA resource program are illustrated in Fi~~e 9.

Starting in. the upper left hand coxnex of the diagram, knowledge

on known uranium occur-ences will be augmented by gathering

and generating new data by use of surface, aerial, subsurface

and remote sensing techniques. This will allow improved

estimates in known areas and identification of other'reas

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where known types and postulated new types of deposits may

est. This wi3.1 increase knowledge on uranium occurrences

in the United States, improve estimates of the resource

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position, and ezpand and solidify the base of nuclear fuelsupplies. Information is routinely made available to industryfor development of their ezploration and mining programs.

Industry efforts will generate additional data which willalso be used by ERDA in continuing resource 'studies.

An important part of this strategy is research and development

to improve the technology involved in uranium discovexy,

assessment, mining and milling. ERDA uranium raw materialsbudgets to carry out this program axe increasing. Tn FY 1976,

ezpendi,tures will be axound $ 14 million. Xn fiscal year 1977

$ 27 million has been requested.

Two activities underway to generate new data'ystematicallyare the aerial radiometric reconnaissance program and the

national hydrogeochem'cal survey. Features of the airborne

program are highlighted in Fk~e 10. This program willinvolve some 870,000 line miles of aerial surveys flown

on an average line spaci.ng of five miles utilizing gamma,

ray spectrometric techniques. Data generated are being made

publicly available upon the completion of individual projects.

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I The hydrogeochemical suxvey features axe listed in Fibre 11.

This wi.ll be a systematic national suxvey of the uranium and

associated t-ace element content of surface and underground

waters, being carried. out by ERDA laboratories. Data generated

will provide a means of identification of areas of favorability

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particularly when coupled wf.th other available data.

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resouxce situation, analysis of the activities and success ofindustry and their xelation to the desirable resouxce. 1evels

needed in the years ahead to assure adeauate uranium suppli.es

to meet the country's needs. The program is geaxed to providinginformation to government and industry so tR t sound decisions

can be made on energy polic'v.

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Hi -Cost: Resouxces

As previously noted, an alternative to identification ofadditional low»cost resources f.s the utilization of higher

cost resources. The highest cutoff cost category included

in ERDA resources, fn Firn> e 2, f.s $ 30/lb. U308, This levelwas selected, a few years ago as an upper range of what might

be of interest for utilization in light water reactors over

the next decade ox'ore.

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~ The increased price of of.l and coal in the last few years has

increased the cost of uranium economically acceptable in light7

water reactors. This results from the xelatfve f.nsensitfvf.ty

of nuclear electxf.c power costs to increases in uranium prices.

The cost of fuel is only a fractio'n or". the cost of power from

a nuclear plant. In tuxn, the cost of aatural uranium is only

a fraction of the fuel cost; enrichment, fabrication, xepxocessing

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increases in power costs. This Xs an important advantage

for nuclear power and provides additional assurance thaturanium supplies will be adequate.

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Knowledge of U. S. resources in the above $ 30 category ismeager 1argely because of the lack of past economic interest.There has been virtually no indus~ activity to seaxch foror develop such resources, Prospects for discovery of higher

- cost resources in the U. S., including those types of depositsI

known elsewhere in the world, such as those listed in Figare T,

are considered promising at this stage of U. S. exploration.The magnitude of such resources is, however', uncertain. The

ERDA assessment program will also consider these types ofresources.

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Thex'e are,. in addition, 1arge very low grade deposits which

have been studied in some detail in the past. These include

the phosphates which are of current interest as byproduct and

shales which are a potential "backup" foxm of supply, if needed.

The Chattanooga shale in Tennessee is of particulax'ntm est

because of its large si2,'e. This deposit was eztensive1y

drilled, sampled, and studied in the 1950s. The higher

grade part of the Chattanooga shale has a uranium content

of about 60-80 ppm. jt contains in ezcess of 5,000,000 tons

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6of U308 that may be producible at a cost of $ 100 or more per

pound of U308. %bile additional work developing pxoduction

technology will be neede'd, it is of interest that plans have

been announced to exploit a similar but considerably highergrade deposit (300 ppm) in Sweden. The mining and millingtechnology has been developed and. the deposits axe economic.

A plant of 20,000 tons of oxe per day capacity is planned.

Similaz'z'oduction technology could be used for the Chattanooga

shale at higher prices. As an example, if shale were mined tofuel a 1,150 MNe reactor, assuming recycle of'ranium but not

plutonium and a 0.3%%u enrichment tail, about 12,600 tons ofshale would have to be processed each day, or with uranium

and plutonium recycle and 0.207. enrichment tai,ls, about 8,500

tons per day. An average of about 11,300 tons of coal would

need to be burned each day if 8,700 btu/lb. coal were used.

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Utilization oz the very low-grade resources such as Chattanooga'

shale would, of course, i,nvolve m'ning and processing very much

larger quantities of oxe than is cur-ently mined to produce the

same amount of uranium. From an environmental. as well as fxom

an economic point oz view, identification and uti~ation oz

additional higher grade ores should. be pxezerable. Eowever,

the shales axe available if their use should become necessary.

I

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III

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Porei n. Uranium

In October 1974, the AEC announced its plan for allowingenrichment of foreign uxanium intended. for use in domestic

reactors. — The plan would allow 10'f an enrichments/

customex's feed to be of foreign origin in 1977.. The

allowable pexc;entage would incx'ease in subsequent yeax's as

shown in Figure 12". In 1984, there would be no restrictionon use of foreign uranium. Foreign uranium, therefore, will

I'e

an additional souxce of uranium to meet domestic needs.

Duxing 1975, 1~100 tons of foreign urani~ were delivered toU. S. buyers and 44,000 tons of foreign uranium were under

cont:ract at the beginning of 1976 for delivery to V. S.

customers through 1990.—9/

~~I g

1I

Resources of foreign countries, up to the $ 30/lb. category,

are t:abulated in Figure'13::. The "reasonably assux'ed" category

corresponds closely t:o the domestic ore resexve cat:egory and

the "estimated additional" category corresponds to the domestic

pxobable potential. As will be noted in the table, foreignresoux'ces are'argely cont:ained in five countries: Australia,Canada, South Africa, South Vest Africa and Sweden. All except

~ ~

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1

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Q8'/ USAEC Press Release Ho. T-517, October 25, 1974.

9/ ERDA 76-46, Suxvey of U. S. Uranium Marketing Activity,April 1976.

l'

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r~~i ~' Sweden and. to some extent Canada will be essentially uranium

exporting countries as their own needs will be comparatively

small. The Swedish uranium is contained in low-grade shale

as previously noted and is not likely to be available forexport: in significant quantities.

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Foreign uranium demand, principally for the countries ofwestern Europe and Japan, is projected to grow even more

rapidly than in the United States. EBDA projections indicatecumulative non-Communist foreign requirements th ough the

year 2000 could be 2,100,000 to 2,800,000 tons of U308 withannual demand in 1980 of 45,000 tons and in 1990 of 90,000

to 120,000 tons {at 0.3 tails and with recycle).

Existing foreign production capacity is about 20,000 tons per

year. Considering the magnitude of known foreign uranium

resources and production expansion plans, foreign capabilitycould be increased to over 50,000 tons per year'n the early

1980s. Although foreign resources are large, there are

limitations on attainable production levels from Canadian, Swedish

and South A&ican resources, and continued growth of foreign

production capability will require enlargement of the foreign

resource base or, use of higher cost resources.

The prospects for expansion of foreign uranium supplies from

a geologic point of view are good. The experience in Australia

l'

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4

where large new resources were identified in just a few years

effort is an example. The absence of substantial known

resources in South America and in many ~ican and Asiaticcountries as seen in Pi~e 14,emphasizes the lack of ex-

ploration effort that has been done in these areas. There

are, however, politica3. limitations on the degree to which

exploration will be accomplished in such places and the degree

ta which u anium supplies can be e~oxted. HationalisticpoU.cies'towards resources has made access to supplies

difficult in recent yeaxs. The improvement of world prices

and markets should assist in opening up new areas to uranium

exploration. However, s ince uranium demand will be low inmany countries, material should be 'avai.lable in the world

market place in time to make a useful contribution to

Con cl vs ion

In conclusion, ERDA assessment of uranium resources indicatesthat'urrently

estimated $30 ore reserves and probable potential resources

consist of 1,840,000 tons U>0 with total currently estimated $20

domestic resour es of 3.7 million tons. Further expansion of U. S.

rQ

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uranium supplies is possible by discovery of new low-cast

'esources, ut9.lizatian of higher cost resources, or imgortatian

of foreign uranium. ERMA programs are designed ta improve

.understanding of cux-ent resources and to aid in identificationof new resources,. serg ta assure that uranium supplies willbe available when needed.

ji

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prices have Qxcreased to leve3.s that make exploration and

production economically attractive. Industry e~lorationand develop nt activities are increasing. Foreign uranium

supplies wi11 be avalable to augment domesticresources.'here

is a bigh probability that additional inte~diatecost resources can also be identified and there are known

domestic hi~~ cost resources which could be used iS needed.

I

Federal Enera Resources Council Stud

A report entitled "Uranium Reserves, Resources, and Production,".

June 15, 1.976, was prepared by the Federal Ener~ Resources

Council —with pa ticipation by Council on Environmental

~lity, Department of Commerce, Department of the Interior(U. S. Geological Survey), En~~onmental P otection Agency,

Energy Research and. Development Administration, =ede aL

Energy Adsnnistratian. The report cancludes

~

5

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'I

'Together, the No categories of probable resources and reserves,'

including by-product, amount to 1.84 million tons of uranium oxide.

These are the highest reliability portion of total United States

resources and serve as a prudent resource base for planning nuclear

powerpl ant constructi on programs."

Qi

The conclusion of the Energy Resources Council study is consistent with

the findings of ERQA. A copy of the study is provided as Attachment 1

to this testimony.

7

'li

ERDA URANIlM RESOURCE CATEGORIES

CUTOFF ORECOST RESERVES

PROBABLE

URE POTENTIAL

POSSIBLE SPECULATIVE

ULTBfATEPOTENTIAL

(Known Districts-Identified Trends)

(ProductiveProvinces,in Pro-ddctiveFormations)

(New Provincesor ~

New Formations)

$ 8

$ 10

$ 15

$ 30 ~

HIGllERCOST

0

DECREASING KNOWLEDGE AND ASSURANCE

Figure ).

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U. S. URAHDM RESOURCES

January 1, 1976—3-8Tons U 0

~ ~

,55

4/lb. V308Cutoff Cost Reserves

270,000

Probable

440,000

215 OOO

655,000

$ 15-30 Increment..5

$ 30

210 000 405 000

i0,000 1,0600000

555-15 5 * 15 555

~<30,000

'Potential

Possible

420,000

255 000

675,OOO

595 000

1,270,000

it<5,000

145 000

290~000

300 000

590,000

275,000

775 000

2,0500000

1 510 000

3,560,000

By Product1975-2OOO —'40,000

780,000 1,060,000 1,270 000 590,000

140 OOO

3,700,000

a/ By-product of phosphate and copper production.

Figure 2 e ~

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.PACIFIC COAST AND"":": ~IERRA NEVADA 0

ROCKIES ROCKIESSOUTHERN

~W CANADIAN SHIELD

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NYOMINGBASINS

COLUMBIA COIORADO ANDPLATEAUS . o SOUTHER

-g~ s

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BAS IN

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0:PRINCIPAL U.S. URANIUM AREAS

SPOKANE g

5

55

k ~

.I,, ~ 5

WYOMING BASINS

oia oCOLORADO PLATEAU

POWOER RIVER BASIN

BLACK IIILLS4'brOg

BASIN ~'Sl IIALEY~GAS lllLLS

I CROOKS GAP

p)FRONT RANGE

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URAVAN MINERAL BELT

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GRANTS MINEAAL BELT ,r* t ~

GEOLOGIC PROVINCE

URANIUMAMA

Figure 4

TEXASCOASTAL PLAIN,r

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LIVE OAK

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~,-.,3TENTIAt UBANlUMBEG JBCES BY

I ~ P ~

REQlOM (430)lb;",0,)

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10,00042,00066,000

018,000

ias,oaa235,000105,000

27,00062,000$ 9,000

433,00632,000103,000

313, 0004,00031,000

44,noa30.'no a12,000

20,00067,0003I,000

00

00

71,000

077,000

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100,000120,aoo31,000

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~ 'RANDTOTALSPROBABLE 1,0G0,000 TQf48 U3QQPOSSI BLE 1,"70,000 TONS Ug08SPECULA'nVE 'riOO,'00O TONS u3OO

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0 o.NATIONALURANIUMRESOURCE EVALUATION

PBELlMINARYPOTENTIAL.ANDFAVORABLEAREAS.~ ~

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H5 PROBABLE, POSSIBLE AND SPECuLATIVE POTENTlAL AREASgg OTHER ABEAS WITH FAVORABLE GEOLOGY -.

7

Figure 6

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Ulv'. 'i'i DEPOSITS

TYPE

AVERAGEMPOSIT.GRADES

PPi~l

~SIZERANGE

UNITEDSTATES

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VEIN . 1~000-25,000 1,000-40,.000

SANDSTONE 500-5,000 '00-50,000

CALCRETE

QUARTZ«PEBBLECO'vGLO: )ERATE

. 1 000-3,000

. F00-1,500

1,000-50,000

10,000-200,000

ESSIVE VEIN-LIKE 3,000-25,000 10,000-250,000 SASKATCHEWAN,.CANADA~..'LLIGATOR

RIVER,AUSTRALIA

COLORADO, GREAT BEAR LAKE,WASHINGTON I CANADA;

SllINKOLOBHE~ ZAIRE'FRANCE

COLORADO PLATEAU NIGER, GABONUYO>1ING, TEXAS 'RGENTINA

2 YI'.ELIRRIE, AUSTRALIAr

2 ELLIOT LAKE, CANADA;MI'D)ATERSRAND, SOUTH '.

AFRICA

ALASKITE

SYEtfITE

PHOSPHATE ROCK

300-400

100-400

6O-2OO -,

75,000-X50,000

10,000-50,000

0.5-2;o HILLIom

2

FLORIDA,IDAHO

ROSSING, SOUTH HESTAFRICA

ILBIAUSSAQ, GREENLAND

NORT11 AFRICA

SHALE , 50-300 1-5 HILLION ~ '. S.E. UNITED STATES RANSTAD, SUEDE'

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Figure 7

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160

120

U.S. EXPLORATION ACTIVITY.AND PLANS

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60

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0ACTUAL

PLANNED

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60~40 EXPENDITURES

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~30

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. -1020

1966

ADOlTIONS TORESERVES

1970

Figure 8'

1972

S30

S16

S10

SG

DBILI ING

1974 1976

80 coo70 ~" .',-:

60 ~060 I-

40 g30 ill 'I I

20 O.

10 ".

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EBQA AERIAL RADIOLMTRIC RECONNAISSANCE PROGRAMe

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'OAL - COMPLETE AIRBORNE'RADXOMETRIC SURVEY OF U.S., INCLUDING ALASKA, ON HIDE"SPACED FLIGHTLINES, BY 1-1-&0, TO AID XN IDENTIFYING FAVORABLE AREAS..

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PROGRAM--MINIMUMTOTAL FLIGHT LXNE MINES--CONTERMINOUS. U.S., 760,000; ALASKA, 110,000

FLIGHT LINE SPACING--1-12 MILES: AVERAGE 5 MILES

ALTITUD¹-200-800 Fl;ET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL, OPTXMOM 400 FEET

SYSTEMS-™COMPUTERIZED klIGkl-SENSITIVITYGAMMA-RAY SPECTROMETRXC AND MAGNETIC DETECTORSHOUNTED IN FIXED"HING AND ROTARY-LANG AIRCRAFT OPERATED BY PRIVATE FXRHS ..

OUTPUT--RADXOiilBTRIC EQUIVALENT OF URANIUM, THORIUM,'ND POTASSIUM, AHD MAGNETIC.CjlARACTERISTXCS OF ENCLOSING ROCK, STATISTICALLY EVALUATED BY GEOLOGIC UNITS

DATA HANDLING

PUBLICATION--OPEN FILI'. UPON COMPLETION OF BACH SURVEY

St~)I1IARIZED DATA.BANK"-LOS ALAMOS SCIENTIFXC LABORATORY

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TENTATIVE 8CllEDULE

FISCAL YEAR

1974-76197719781979

LINE MILES

151,000W 7,000362,000210'00870,000

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HYDROGEOCIIEMXCAL AND STREAM SEDIMENT RI;CONNAISSANCE PROGRAM

l

. QQAI, A SYSTEMATIC DETERMINATION OF TllE DXSTRIBUTION OF URANIUM AND ASSOCIATED TRACE

ELEMENTS IN SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND WATERS AND.IN STREAM SEDIMENTS XN THE U.ST ~INCLUDING ALASI<A TO IDENTIFY AREAS FAVORABLE POR Ul'ANIUM MIN]ERAL OCCURRENCES

PARTICIPA1'1TS: ERDA .LABORATORIES

OPERATIl'1G PARAMETERS:

POSHIlll.l SEHPLt," SPACING - 10 SQ, HK, (WXDl AHL'A) - 1./2 SQ, HI. (DETAILEDDHPL'HDING ON GL'OLOGI llOMOGENEXTY OP AREA.

AHALYSIS « FIELD CONCENTRATION OF ELEMENTS FROM WATER; HEASUREMENT OFCONDUCTIVITY AND pll; DETERMINATION OF SPECIFIC

ELEMENTS'ATA

TREATMENT - STATISTICAL ANALYSIS.

'DATA INTERPRITATION - RELATE ANOMAl.Y DATA TO GLOLOCIC ENVIRONMEQTS ~

OUTPUT AREAS OP PAVOINBILITY OPEN-PILING OP MAPS AND DATA;NATIONAL DATA'ANK.

TENTATIVE SCllEDUl.E;

~ g f~ e (.e,;-,'.~ ~

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FISCAL YEAR - 19751976

1977-1979

LITERATURE SEARCH AND LIHITED R&D~

PILOT STUDIES; STATISTICAL'ETHODS DEVELOPMENTSSTAFPING; PROCEDURE DEVELOPMENT.LAl'CE-SCALE SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE SAMPLING;Dh'1'A ANAI.YSIS, INTERPRETATION, AND REPORTING

l.'IGURE 1),

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. ALLIABLE FORZIGH i~NIVi'i E~iKZi"HHEHT FEED

(DOMESTIC EitD USE)

Tons U308/

~ P 6~ a

~ P

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.,"-',a, l a

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~

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Schedule.e of Percentageof Feed. Allo~'ed to

be For i,.nCalendarYears

~ - 1974

1973

1976~

~

1977

1978ra

207o

3071980

407.I ~ > 198l

1982

801.1983

198m Ho RestrictionJa

a aa

g;s0

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~,

FIGURE 12v ~

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I:.''.,':.'.:., .:.;.': ','"-':". '. "': '-'=-",.':-: ' ','.--- ....'.....'."...-.-.; ~ .......

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Australia.:='S & SW.Africa

CanadaNigerPrance

~' Algeria

~ '- GabonSpainArgentinaOther

Total (Rounded)

(~j'x'KIGN RESOURCES

.Thousand.Tons U30~

Reasonably EstimatedAssured . Additional

~15 Lb U300

430-2421895248362613121)56-

1,100

1048

3942633

611

V

p

2026

630 ':

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Figure 13

~30 Lb O~O,.l. .'

. Australia 430 104Sweden 390S & SM Africa ~ 359 96Canada 225 887I'rance 71 52Niger 65 39

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~ 'lgeria 36Spain 30 55Argentina 272( , 50Other 150 — ' 110

Tonal (Rounded) ',700 1<390~ e

1/ Xncludes Brazil, Central African Republic, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, Portugal,~ Turkey, Yugoslavia and Zaire.2/ <Xncludes, in addition to 1/, Denmark, Finland, Xtaly, Korea and the United, Kingdom,

JUN 2 '- 876

~ i I - ~ "' = ~

,N''-r, '. ~

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-, woeLD'R~NluM ~EsouRcEsREASONABLY ASSURED RESERVES Q $ 16 PER POUND U,O, '. ! ..

l55 ~

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SHORT TONS 0 aO I —.,

Imlg 1,aoo - 1o,oao

10,009 - 60,000

50,000: 10D,000

1ao,oo0-2ao,aoo .

'0a.aoo- 30o,aao,'g

3oo,aoo no MonE.

i. ).

,~

~ ~,

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~ ~ ~EXCLUDES PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA, USSR ANDASSOCIATED STATES OF EASTERN EUROPE

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(W

John A. Patterson1

1

Nr. Patterson is Chief, Supply Evaluation Branch in theDivision of Huclear Puel Cycle and Production, EnergyResearch and Development Administration, washington, D. C.

He joined the Atomic Energy Commission, Division of RawMaterials, in 1952 at Grand Junction, Colorado. Initiallywas involved with ezploxation activities as Project Chiez,subsequently was involved with estimating and evaluatingU. S. uranium reserves and potential resouxces as Chiez.,Ore Reserves Branch. In 1967 moved to Vashington, D. Cas Assistant to the Director, Division oz Raw Materialswhere in addition to working on domestic uranium resourceand supply studies, also became involved in studies involvinguranium requirements, procurement, marketing and prices, andforeign supply and demand. Member~ of the jo'nt OECD HucleaxEnergy Agency and International Atomic Energy Agency VioxkingParty on Uranium Resources, evaluating and reporting on worlduranium resources and px'oduction capability. Member of theHuclear Convextex's and Fuel Cycle Group of the HationalResearch Council Committee on Hucleax and Alternate EnergySystems. Participant in Hucleax Task Group of the HationalPetroleum Council U. S. Energy Outlook Study - 1970-1972.Contributor to world Energy Conzexence "Suxvey of EnergyResources, 1974." He is the authox oz a number of paperson uranium resource evaluation and supply and demand.

Befoxe join'ng AEC,'Mr. Patterson was engaged in oil ezploxa»tion in Nyomino and Utah for Geotechnical Corporation, goldmining in Alaska fox'. S. Smelting Re ining and MiningCompany, and gold and diamond exploration in Guyana.

Nr, Patterson earned a Bachelor of metallurgical engineeringfrom Rensselaer Palytechnic Institute {1947) and a M.S. inmining engineering zrcm the Univexsity of Utah (1949). Heis a Member of the American Institute of Mining and MetallurgicalEngineers.1

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PUBLISHED PAPERS BY JOHN A. PATTERSON

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Estimation of ore reserves: Uranium Tnstitute of America,Grand Junction, Colorado, Januaxy 27, 1959

Domestic uranium reserves: National Western Mining Conferenceand Exhibition, Denver, Colorado, Febxuary 8, 1963

Application of automatic data processing techniques to uraniumore re'serve estimation and analysis: Quarterly of the ColoxadoSchool of Mines, international Symposium Applications ofStatistics, Operations Research, and Computers in theMineral industry - Part B, v. 59, no. 4, pages 859-886,October 1964

Charact:er of the United States uranium resources: TnternationalAtomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Uranium Exploration Geology,1970 I

Outlook for nucleax'el: IEEZ-A~i Joint Power Generation'Conference, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, September 27-30, 1970

Uranium supply and nucleax power; Conference of the PublicUtilityBuyers'roup, Atlanta, Georgia, March 8, 1971

Nuclear power and uranium: Gulf Coast Association of GeologicalSocieties Annual Meeting, Corpus Chxisti, Texas, October 13,1972

Uranium mar<eting activities: Atomic industrial Forum UraniumSeminar, Oak Brook, illinois, March 27, 1973

Outlook for uranium: 17th Minerals Symposium American Tnstituteof Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, Casper,Wyoming, Hay 11, 1974

Foreign production capability and supply: Uranium industrySeminar, Grand Junction, Colorado, GJ0-108(74), Paxt ii,pages 63»71, October 22-23, 1970

U. S. uranium sales and commitments: Uranium industry Sem'nar,Grand Junction, Colorado, GJ0-108(74), Part i, pages 38-52,October 22-23, 1974.

U. S. uranium situat:ion, Atomic Tndustxial Forum Fuel CycleConference '75, Atlanta, Geo gia, March 20, 1975

~ +'4 )3

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Uranium market activities: Uranium Industry Seminar, GrandJunction, Colorado, October 7, 1975

Foreign resources and production capability: Uranium IndustrySeminar, Grand Junction, Colorado, October 8, 1975

Uranium requirements and supply outlook; Uranium EnrichmentCoherence, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, november 1975

Uranium supply developments: Atomic Industria1. Forum, FuelCycle Conrerence, Phoenix, Arizona, March 22, 1976

C»

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