NIAS Strategic Forecast

10

International Strategic and Security Studies Programme

National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bengaluru - 560 012, India

November 2016

D. Suba Chandran

Trends. Threats. Projections

Pakistan’s New Army Chief: The Sharif Balance Sheet & the Bajwa Forecast

NIAS Strategic Forecast 10 , November 2016

National Institute of Advanced Studies

International Strategic and Security

Studies Programme (ISSSP)

The International Strategic & Security Studies Programme, was started at

the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore in 1996 with

the broad objective of conducting academic and policy research related to

national and international security issues. The emphasis of research is

towards integrating complex elements of science and technology with

policy, organizational and institutional arrangements.

NIAS Strategic Forecasts aim at highlighting trends, threats and projections

on contemporary developments at the regional and global levels. Some of

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NIAS Report: R43 — 2016

Pakistan’s New Army Chief

Pakistan’s New Army Chief: The Sharif Balance Sheet & the Bajwa Forecast

For the first time in the last two decades, Pakistan’s Army Chief

retired as per scheduled without any extension. Early 2016, Gen

Raheel Sharif, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS) stated in pub-

lic: I do not believe in extension and will retire on the due date. And

he retired in late November, with the government announcing Gen

Qamar Bajwa as the next Army Chief.

What are the major challenges for Gen Bajwa? Of course, it is not a

clean slate for him; the legacy of his predecessor Gen Raheel Sharif

will play an important role in shaping his options. Will he continue

where Gen Sharif left, or will he chart his own roadmap? What is

the Sharif legacy? And what is the Bajwa forecast?

Gen Sharif to Gen Bajwa The transition was smooth and without much of politicking and

controversies. Gen Bajwa will have to thank both the Sharifs for

this. Gen Sharif resisted the temptations and even pressure from a

section to get an extension. There were posters in public demand-

ing that Gen Sharif should continue and the opposition parties

would not have any major objections, if Gen Sharif demanded an

extension. While an extension of the COAS in a democracy is Par-

liamentary prerogative, Pakistan is no ordinary democracy and its

military chief is no ordinary General. During the recent decades, it

was the other way around; the COAS would decide whether he

would retire or need an extension!

Gen Sharif’s balance sheet on domestic and external fronts is com-

plex. Though his contribution to internal security are eulogised

D. Suba Chandran

Professor, International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP), NIAS

NIAS Strategic Forecast 10 , November 2016

Gen Sharif walked a tight rope and kept civil-military

balance, despite provocation by political leaders, especially Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri.

Both in 2014 and recently in 2016, the opposition

parties, especially Imran Khan played dirty expecting

the military to intervene

(rightly so on certain crucial issues), for an external observer, espe-

cially from India, what he leaves for Gen Bajwa is a tough legacy.

Gen Bajwa will also have to match Gen Sharif’s popularity. Un-

doubtedly Gen Sharif was one of the most popular Pakistani Army

Chiefs in recent decades. He was viewed as a thorough profes-

sional soldier who took tough decisions. Dealing with Pakistani

Taliban, continuing the Zarb-e-Azb, taking on Altaf Hussain and the

MQM in Karachi are some difficult decisions he made for which he

is being appreciated within Pakistan. Though some of them are

work in progress, he is worshipped not for the result, but sticking

towards an Endgame.

In terms of popularity, Gen Sharif was way ahead of his predeces-

sor – Gen Kayani. Gen Musharraf is not to be compared at all, leav-

ing Gen Sharif as the most popular and loved Army Chief during

the last two decades, since the days of Zia. Congratulations. Gen

Bajwa is stepping into a bigger shoe, in terms of popular expecta-

tion from within Pakistan.

Keeping Civil with the Political Establishment An important issue for Gen Bajwa is to maintain the civil-military

relations. Though reports and early writing about Gen Bajwa do

indicate that he would continue where Gen Sharif left, relations

with the government and sharing powers has always been an issue

between an elected Prime Minister and the Chief of Army Staff in

Pakistan.

Gen Sharif walked a tight rope and kept civil-military balance, de-

spite provocation by political leaders, especially Imran Khan and

Tahirul Qadri. Both in 2014 and recently in 2016, the opposition par-

ties, especially Imran Khan played dirty expecting the military to

intervene. There were rumours in 2014, on the role played by some

of ISI officials in engineering/supporting the PTI-PAT agitational

politics. However, Gen Sharif kept the military away from interfer-

ence with the political process on both occasions. In 2014, Imran

Khan and Tahirul Qadri dispersed after getting fatigued and in

2016, the judiciary intervened (and the issue is still being discussed

in the Supreme Court).

Of course, the other Sharif – Nawaz, was extra careful, thanks to

his own history in the last two decades vis-a-vis the military. In

terms of dealing with India and Afghanistan, Sharif seemed to

have outsourced the foreign policy to the GHQ. Domestically, after

the decline of “political dialogue with the TTP” and a national con-

Pakistan’s New Army Chief

Gen Bajwa’s options are limited in continuing Zarb-e-

Azb. Given the popular expectations and the resolve of militants, the new Chief will have no option than to

continue the military operations.

sensus following the Peshawar attack in December 2014, Nawaz

also outsourced counter terrorism strategy to the military. As a

result, having enough space, Gen Sharif perhaps did not want to

meddle with the political equations.

What will Gen Bajwa do? Most likely he will continue Gen Sharif’s

strategy. Though Gen Sharif did not publicly oppose Nawz Sharif,

silently he took away important portfolios from the Prime Minis-

ter. Dealing with India and Afghanistan, and going after the TTP

and MQM – were strategies planned and executed in the GHQ in

Rawalpindi and not in the Parliament in Islamabad. Gen Bajwa is

most likely to continue this strategy.

Continuing with the Zarb-e-Azb Gen Bajwa’s options are limited in continuing Zarb-e-Azb. Given

the popular expectations and the resolve of militants, the new

Chief will have no option than to continue the military operations.

Gen Sharif’s success in fighting the Pakistani Taliban was mixed. To

be fair to him, he inherited a complicated counter insurgency strat-

egy vis-a-vis the TTP from his predecessor Gen Kayani. His prede-

cessor believed in “Talking to the TTP” - a widely accepted strat-

egy then; it was a myopia and naturally it failed.

Gen Sharif changed the above strategy and did not look back. He

converted the cyclic strategy of talks and military operations vis-a-

vis the Pakistani Taliban into unilinear. Gen Kayani’s counter terror-

ism strategy had multiple shades. The TTP’s ingress outside the

Federally Administered Tribal Agency (FATA) was fought hard, but

Kayani did go slow in opening a bold front within Taliban strong-

hold (Swat being the only exception). Perhaps, the military estab-

lishment as a whole was apprehensive of a blow back then.

Gen Sharif took on the TTP – both within and outside the FATA.

Despite the high profile TTP attacks in Peshawar (December 2014),

Charsadda (January 2016) and Quetta (October 2016), Gen Sharif

did not waver.

Will Gen Bajwa pursue a similar strategy? Has Gen Sharif set in mo-

tion a path that is irreversible? Given the predominant public sup-

port for action against the Pakistani Taliban and TTP’s mounting

attacks, it will be difficult for the next COAS to alter the course.

Besides his own personal resolve, Gen Sharif also seems to have

succeeded in creating a contingent within the Establishment by

boosting the sagging morale of his officers. He may not have

rooted out terrorism by the end of 2016 as he had predicted ear-

NIAS Strategic Forecast 10 , November 2016

The biggest challenge for Gen Bajwa will be on both borders – Pak-Indian and Pak-Afghan. Gen Sharif is leaving violent borders for Bajwa to handle. Though many within Pakistan may

appreciate Gen Sharif ’s initiatives and “strong” responses, his tenure

witnessed violent borders on both sides - Indian and

Afghan.

lier, but his resolve will be his legacy. And Gen Bajwa has a bigger

opportunity to take this forward, given the public support.

Cleansing Karachi Karachi will pose a tough challenge domestically for Gen Bajwa.

Gen Sharif’s decision to call the MQM (especially Altaf Hussain)

bluff and start a cleansing operation in Karachi should be as impor-

tant as the fight against the Pakistani Taliban. It was not an easy

decision for Gen Sharif, where his predecessors dithered on Altaf

Hussain. When the other Generals kept away from interfering in

Karachi’s self regulated chaos, Gen Sharif decided to establish or-

der in Pakistan’s biggest city, economic capital and an ethnic caul-

dron.

One would question the means employed in going after Altaf Hus-

sain and the MQM leadership; however, the End seems to justify it.

Today Altaf Hussain stands thoroughly dis-credited and is unlikely

to bounce back and hold Karachi for ransom from London. The

MQM is bracing for a new era without Hussain; there have been

reports recently that Musharraf may take over!

Though the actions against the MQM have discredited Altaf Hus-

sain, Karachi is far from becoming stable. Given the multiplicity of

actors (religious parties, sectarian organizations, al Qaeda and Tali-

ban remnants and criminal groups), the decline of MQM’s hold

does not automatically lead to Karachi’s peace. The new COAS will

have to face the consequences, but hopefully continue to keep

MQM on leash.

The Indo-Afghan Challenge The biggest challenge for Gen Bajwa will be on both borders – Pak-

Indian and Pak-Afghan. Gen Sharif is leaving violent borders for

Bajwa to handle. Though many within Pakistan may appreciate

Gen Sharif’s initiatives and “strong” responses, his tenure wit-

nessed violent borders on both sides - Indian and Afghan. Both are

not easy borders for any COAS, but Gen Sharif’s strategies did not

secure them any better.

While Gen Sharif did take stern action against the TTP and in Kara-

chi, conspicuous by absence is any concrete action towards those

Pakistani jihadi groups with an anti-India posture – especially the

Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Toiba. Perhaps, Gen Sharif did

not want to open another front within Pakistan. Still, it would not

Pakistan’s New Army Chief

Will Gen Bajwa rework Pakistan’s Kashmir

approach? Gen Sharif mis-judged the violence within Kashmir valley in 2016; his actions and response along

the LoC, has in fact, diverted the attention from whatever has been happening within

the Valley.

explain why he allowed the Line of Control (LoC) to go red during

2014, after a prolonged ceasefire. It is most likely, his successor

will continue the same vis-a-vis India, and that should be India’s

biggest disappointment with Gen Sharif. This would make the bor-

ders even more violent, than they were before 2014.

At the bilateral level, there were few initiatives, beginning from

Sharif’s New Delhi visit to take part in Narendra Modi’s takeover,

Ufa Summit and the Modi-Sharif meeting in Lahore; none of them

turned into a concrete process. Perhaps the General Sharif did not

allow the politician Sharif.

On India, Indo-Pak border and Kashmir, perhaps Gen Sharif mis-

judged Narendra Modi-Ajit Doval resolve to respond. Certainly, he

did not inherit a violent LoC; but he would be leaving one to Gen

Bajwa.

Will Gen Bajwa rework Pakistan’s Kashmir approach? Gen Sharif

mis-judged the violence within Kashmir valley in 2016; his actions

and response along the LoC, has in fact, diverted the attention

from whatever has been happening within the Valley. Though Paki-

stan has been accusing India for using disproportionate force, it

was a response and retaliation. The new COAS would face a tough

India, acting tougher along the LoC.

Besides Indo-Pak border and Kashmir, another challenge for Gen

Bajwa would be the situation along the Afghan border. Though

Gen Sharif inherited an unstable Durand Line, he neither secured it

nor improved it. Today Pak-Afghan border – politically, demog-

raphically and militarily is as volatile as when he took over. Gen

Sharif was unwilling to change Pakistan’s strategy towards the Af-

ghan Taliban and the Huqqani network.

With the deaths of Mullah Omar and his successor later, Gen Sharif

had a golden opportunity to rework Pakistan’s strategy towards

the Afghan Taliban, and thereby towards Kabul. Unfortunately, he

could not take a bolder decision on Afghan Taliban, as he did with

the Pakistani one. As a result, Kabul, especially Ashraf Ghani took a

U-turn in rapprochement strategy towards Islamabad and Rawalip-

indi. While Karzai was inherently anti-Pakistan, Ghani was wavering

initially towards Pakistan. Gen Sharif should have sensed the op-

portunity and seized it. The failure of Quadrilateral Coordination

Group (QCG) on Afghanistan and thereby Pakistan’s leverage as

well, is likely to come back and haunt the new COAS more.

While Pakistan is basking on their new found Eldorado – the China

NIAS Strategic Forecast 10 , November 2016

D. Suba Chandran is a Professor at the ISSSP, NIAS. He works on J&K, Pakistan, and

Afghanistan.

Views expressed are author’s own.

Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), recent initiatives by India, es-

pecially Chabahar and its larger implications along with Iran and

Central Asia is likely to reduce the Afghan dependence on Pakistan

in the long term. The Indo-Iranian convergence along with Central

Asian countries on Afghanistan (which will play out further during

the forthcoming Heart of Asia conference in New Delhi) effectively

will further reduce Pakistan’s leverages in Kabul. Gen Bajwa will

face the consequences of Sharif’s inability to work with Kabul.

The Sharif Balance Sheet & the Bajwa Forecast To conclude, domestically Gen Sharif took bolder decisions in deal-

ing with the Pakistani Taliban and MQM, and kept the military

away from interfering in political equations between the govern-

ment and opposition. Not seeking an extension and retiring as

scheduled, whether will be followed later or not, but sets a prece-

dent. The Chief of Army Staff as an institution is popular within

Pakistan than it has been ever during the last decades. And the

Prime Minister is willing to work with, even cede his decision mak-

ing powers on crucial issues to the Army Chief Gen Bajwa should

be able to reap the benefits.

Externally, having taken control of Pakistan’s Afghan and India pol-

icy, Gen Sharif could not stabilize the borders and has left Pakistan

borders in an unstable situation than it was, when he took over.

Gen Bajwa will be reaping the whirlwind on both sides of Pakistan.