Pakistan 2010 Floods Damage and Needs Assessment Draft ...siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/DNAbyadb-wo… · 4 Social mobilization and training communities on preparedness/response

Pakistan Floods 2010

Damage and Needs Assessment

Pakistan Development Forum

Islamabad 14, 15 November 2010

Flood Extent 31st of July (Initial Stages of Flood)

Total Inundation Extent of the Floods

THE PURPOSE OF THE DNA IS TO ASSESS THE DAMAGE AND LOSSES CAUSED AND CALCULATE THE COST OF RECONSTRUCTION

Objective of the DNA:To provide the strategic underpinnings for medium- to long-term post-floods reconstruction and recovery planning, prioritization, and programming

an overview of sector level

program strategies and policy

options

based on cost of replacing what

was lost with a build back

better/smarter factor

based on replacing permanent

assets and services

a quantification of public needs

requirements

prescriptive, does not present

a menu of projects

inclusive of development costs

‘Early Recovery’ – defined as

transitional services- these are

covered in UN report

Inclusive of private needs

requirements

The DNA IS… The DNA is NOT…

Snapshot of DNA Methodology

Needs Estimation

Impact Analysis

Damage & Losses

Post-disaster performance

Baseline analysis

* Sector by sector

*Macro

*Recovery & Reconstruction

* Pre-disaster performance

THE DNA USES THE ECLAC METHODOLOGY WHICH HAS BEEN USED IN POST-DISASTER ASSESSMENT FOR OVER THIRTY YEARS

DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS BEEN CONDUCTED THROUGH DATA VERIFICATIONS WHILE NEEDS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON ANALYSIS AND POLICY DECISIONS

Direct Damages: monetary value of the

completely or partially destroyed assets

immediately following the disaster

Indirect Losses: income losses, change of flow

of goods and services, increased expenses,

curtailed production and diminished revenue,

arising from direct damage to production

capacity and social and economic infrastructure

Reconstruction Costs: cost of rebuilding lost

assets and restoring lost services. Generally

assessed at the replacement cost with a

premium added for build back better/smarter

based on policy decisions

Data collection & verification Data analysis & policy decisions

Sectoral profiles based on:

1. Data from questionnaires

2. Secondary data

Verification through:

1. Field visits by sector teams

2. Interviews with stakeholders

3. Desk reviews

4. Satellite imagery

5. Other plausibility checks

Scope

16 Sectors

Composition of Sectoral

Teams

Mix of WB/ADB staff

Relevant One UN

organizations

Bilaterals engagement

through 20 experts

1 Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries WB

2 Disaster Risk Management WB

3 Economic Assessment WB

4 Education WB

5 Energy ADB

6 Environment WB

7 Financial Sector WB

8 Governance ADB

9 Health ADB

10 Housing WB

11 Irrigation and Flood Management ADB

12 Private Sector & Industries WB

13 Social ADB

14 Social Protection and Livelihoods WB

15 Transport ADB

16 Water & Sanitation ADB

EXPERT TEAMS HAVE BEEN WORKING TO GATHER, VALIDATE AND ANALYSE DATA ACROSS SEVETEEN SECTORS SINCE [date]

SectorUSD millions Needs: Option 1

USD millions

Option 2

USD millions

Option 3

USD millions

Irrigation 278 427 427 982

Housing 1,588 1,483 1,690 2,206

Agriculture 5,045 257 670 1,049

Transport & Communications 1,328 2,356 2,356 2,356

Energy 309 106 106 106

Livelihoods support 683 683 683

Private sector 282 102 102 129

Education 311 505 505 505

Health 50 49 49 49

Water & Sanitation 109 74 74 94

Governance 70 58 58 58

Financial 674 463 463 463

Environment 12 209 209 209

DRM 27 27 27

Total 10,056 6,799 7,418 8,915

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE AND NEEDS

Agriculture, Livestock &

Fisheries

Province

Crop Area

Damaged (000

ha)

Large Animals

(000 head)

Small Animals

(incl. sheep,

goal) 000

Poultry

Perished (000)

Watercourses

Damages Nos

AJK 33.1 0.3 0.3 11.7 657

Balochistan 132.4 139.6 1,036.7 625.5 47

FATA 7.2 6.2 8.4 101.2 n/a

Gilgit Baltistan 7.9 1.3 10.8 12.9 960

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa 121.4 72.4 67.8 621.3 1,790

Punjab 746.8 2.3 2.5 2012 2,598

Sindh 1,043.5 93.7 81.9 6,895.1 6,990

Total 2,092.6 315.6 1,208.3 10,279.7 13,042

Large Animals = Cattle, Buffaloes, Camels, Horse, Donkey Fishery/Ponds lost in FATA included in estimates for Pakhtunkhwa

AGRICULTURE SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES

AGRICULTURE SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS

Option 1: Low

compensation

scenario

Crops ,small- and medium-size farmers with up to 10 ha of land to be provided with essential inputs (seed, fertilizer, and land preparation costs) for wheat in upcoming Rabi season and the subsidy amount would be equivalent to about 80% of total expenses needed for sowing on one ha of landLivestock ,those living below poverty line will be provided a compensation of around 2-3 small animals or one large animal (approximately 50% of their pre-flood holdings), On-farm irrigation 40% of total damaged watercourses will be rehabilitatedFisheries, around 50% of total recovery needs of the fishing community to be compensated in the form of subsidy

Option 2: Preferred

compensation

scenario:

Option 3: High

compensation

scenario

Crops, small- and medium-size farmers with up to 10 ha of land will be provided with essential inputs (seed, fertilizer, and land preparation costs) for wheat in upcoming Rabi season and the subsidy amount would be equivalent to about 80% of total expenses needed for sowing on three ha of landLivestock, those living below poverty line will be compensated (same as previous scenario), plus those iving above the line, will be compensated about 30% of their total lost animalsOn-farm irrigation, 60% of total damaged watercourses will be rehabilitated.Fisheries, around 50% of total recovery needs of the fishing community to be compensated in the form of subsidy.Crops, small- and medium-size farmers with up to 10 ha of land will be provided with essential inputs (seed, fertilizer, and land preparation costs) for wheat in upcoming Rabi season and the subsidy amount would be equivalent to about 80% of total expenses needed for sowing on five ha of land.Livestock, those living below poverty line will be compensated 50% of their lost animals (same as previous scenario), plus those living above that threshold, will be compensated about 50% of their total lost animals.On-farm irrigation, 80% of total damaged watercourses will be rehabilitated.Fisheries, around 50% of total recovery needs of the fishing community shall be compensated in the form of subsidy.

AGRICULTURE SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

ProvinceDamage

USD millions

Needs: Option 1

USD millions

Option 2

USD millions

Option 3

USD millions

AJK 24 5 13 22

Balochistan 427 49 133 190

FATA 37 1 5 8

Gilgit Baltistan 22 3 6 8

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa396 23 67 107

Punjab 1,838 60 160 262

Sindh 2,302 96 266 432

Sector Total 5,045 238 650 1,028*

*This total does not include the costs for Key Intervention Area 2 (Improving Policy and

Regulatory Frameworks) worth USD 20 million.

Disaster Risk Management

DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Institutional

development and

capacity building

Develop climate

change strategy

Integration of pre-existing parallel structures for DRM at Federal and Provincial levels for synergizing and increased coordination and capacity building

Enhance early

warning systems

Development of a national climate change strategy framework backed by policy legislation & capacity building of key institutions and raising awareness

Restoring and enhancing the performance of key elements of the country’s flood early warning system and development of a national multi-hazard Integrated decision support and alert system

Increase

community

preparedness &

awareness

Promoting community based disaster risk management (CBDRM) and education – increasing awareness on DRM

Hazard Mapping

and risk transfer

mechanisms

Early initiation and completion of national multi-hazard risk mapping to define the national hazard risk environment and also develop a strategy for catastrophe risk financing

DRM SECTOR NEEDS Interventions Reconstructio

n Needs in

USD Millions

1 Management study of NDMA and existing parallel DRM structures for assimilation 0.5

2 Development of a central MIS System at NDMA with appropriate linkages with

Federal, Provincial and District Response Agencies – including aid tracking and

management systems at all levels

2

3 Technical assistance and hardware support for NDMA, PDMAs and

operationalization of DDMAs in 30 priority districts

5

4 Social mobilization and training communities on preparedness/response in 30

priority/high-risk districts (including equipment for first responders)

3

5 Flood hazard mapping 2

6 GIS-based inundation profiling and of coastal districts 1

7 Development of a multi-hazard national Integrated Decision Support and Alert

System with focus on Flood-related Disaster Management (NIMS)

5

8 Assessment and identification of potential disaster risk insurance options and

development of a strategy for catastrophe risk financing mechanisms and solutions

including some piloting

2

9 Strengthening the capacity of national climate change centers and creating

awareness on climate change issues

2.5

10 Development and Integration of DRM in education and awareness building at all

levels

3

11 Develop capacity for carrying out various assessments, such as multi-hazard risk

assessments and damage and needs assessments (DNA)

1

Total 27

Economic Assessment

Economic Assessment

Overall Assessment

Adverse Impact

Overall damage is estimated at 6 percent of 2009/10 GDP Agriculture has been the most severely affected sector,

(50 percent of the estimated cost of overall damages)

Economic Growth likely to suffer deceleration Monthly inflation registering the highest increase in over two

years Public finances would also be affected due to large-scale increase

in flood-related expenditures Floods may add significantly to the budget deficit in 2010/11 Balance of payment is likely to come under pressure as exports

would slow down and imports accelerate.

Education

11/14/2010 7:25 PM

Prov./ Area Schools CollegesVocational

Institutions

AJK 194 4 -

Balochistan 557 - -

FATA 176 - -

GB 79 2 -

KPK 870 13 17

Punjab 2,817 4 4

Sindh 5,655 - -

Total10,348 23 21

EDUCATION SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES

EDUCATION SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Immediately Start

Learning-Teaching

Process

• This will restore confidence of people in government and service delivery• Educational institutions shall need shelter, students would need books and

other learning materials, teachers will need orientation to meet the psycho-socio needs of the students who suffered at the hands of disaster.

Consolidate

Educational

Facilities

• Minimize wastage and under/over-utilization of facilities • Could include; (a) maximizing pre-existing learning spaces (b) combining

schools with low enrollment, incl. combining boys and girls primary schools in the same village ; (c) not constructing non-functional schools;

• Assess enrollment capacity with actual enrollment before floods of each damaged institution to inform decisions about closure or merge

Conduct Facility-by-

Facility Survey

• This will help in assessing actual reconstruction needs of each facility and help in making consolidation decisions

• Experienced teams of surveyors and data analysts with capability to map facilities will be required

Prioritize

Reconstruction

• Rehabilitate rural girls schools followed by rural male• Reconstruct partially damaged schools prior to fully damaged

Reconstruction work

Requires Different

Approach From

Development

Work

• Government construction agencies and private contractors hired by them cannot carry out alone the reconstruction work spread mostly over rural areas • Existing Parent Teacher Associations and School Councils to have enhanced role in rehabilitation and maintenance of schools

EDUCATION SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

Province / AreaDamage

USD millions

Reconstruction

USD millions

AJK 9.9 14.4

Balochistan 9.1 15.4

FATA 4.9 7.3

Gilgit Baltistan 3.9 6.4

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 33.6 52.9

Punjab 92.7 139.7

Sindh 157.1 268.7

Sector Total 311.3 504.8

Energy

11/14/2010 7:25 PM

Power Sector: Physical Damage

Asset

Type

Grid

Stn(no

s)

Transmissi

on Lines

(km)

Distributio

n Lines

(km)

Distributi

on

Trsfmr(no

s)

Customer

(nos)

Hydro

Plants (1)

(nos)

Thermal

Plants

(nos)

Completely

Destroyed1 65 2,799 5,290 106,299

Partially

Damaged31 96 434 340 27,421 91 1

•Includes 60 micro hydro plants in GB and 15 in FATA, and 6 mini hydro plants in AJK.

Oil

Refinerie

s (nos)

Oil

Pipelin

e (km)

Oil

Depots

(nos)

Petrol

Stations (1)

(nos)

Gas

Transmission

Distribution (

2) (locations)

LPG

Facilities

(locations)

CNG

Stations

(location

)

Oil/Gas

Field (site

)

Completely

Destroyed10 5

Partially

Damaged1 274 3 125 310 1 10 15

Petroleum Sector : Physical Damage

CNG= compressed natural gas; km=kilometer; LPG = liquefied petroleum gas. (1) Indicative assessment. Some of these stations have already been restored.(2) Major locations include pipeline segments, stations, rural and urban towns/districts, camps, etc., as reported by

gas companies

ENERGY SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES

ENERGY SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Strategies

Policy Actions

Power Sector

• First priority: restore basic services.

• Second priority: rehabilitate supporting infrastructure.

• Third priority: restore projects that were completely damaged or under construction.

Policy Actions

Petroleum Sector

• Unrecovered receivables from customers in the affected areas.• Compensation to PSPs for providing free electricity to flood affectees.

• Payment of losses to public sector companies for relief operations and damages. • Payment of unrecovered receivables from affected gas customers to public sector companies.

ENERGY SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

Entity Damage

USD millions

Reconstruction

USD millions

Generation 110.3 -

Transmission 1 -

Distribution 43.2 -

Total Power 154.5 73.8

Oil Downstream 47.5 -

Gas Downstream 72.8 -

Upstream Oil & Gas 34.6 -

Total Oil & Gas 154.9 32.5

National Total 309.4 106.3

Environment

ENVIRONMENT SECTOR STRATEGY & POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Address immediate

issues relating to

environmental

health

Initiate non-

structural

interventions to

control floods

• For example:• contaminated drinking water, • disease vectors, • safe waste disposal, • debris disposal,• hazardous wastes

Initiate additional

studies for existing

data gaps

• Will reduce the impacts of floods and complement conventional structural interventions

• Include flood protection plans, land use plans, regulatory and institutional strengthening, phased recovery of natural systems, and others.

• Existing data gaps include:• landslides• stagnant water• campsites restoration• toxic/hazardous spills• cultural heritage

ENVIRONMENT SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

Interventions

Reconstructio

n Costs USD

millions

Institutional Strengthening, Planning, and Capacity Building to Reduce the Risk of

Floods

2,236

Damages to Forests and Wildlife Resources 992

Restoration of Forests, Riverine Vegetation, Wetlands, and Mangroves 9,001

Environmental Health 637

Management of Solid, Hazardous, and Medical Waste and Debris 4,846

Additional Studies 34

Total (PKR million) 17,746

Total (US$ million) 209

Financial Sector

FINANCIAL SECTOR ESTIMATED LOSSES

Sectors

Physical Damage Loan Losses Total

USD million USD millionUSD

million

Public

Sector

Private

Sector

Public

Sector

Private

Sector

Banks 0.48 0.41 438 178 617

MF Sector (MFI & MFBs) 0.4 25 26

Leasing 16 16

Insurance 15 15

Total 0.48 0.81 438 234 674

FINANCIAL SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Increase Financial

Inclusion –expand

outreach thru fresh

credit

• Extending fresh credit in the affected areas essential for revival of business activities, particularly Agriculture and Medium and Small Medium Enterprises (MSMEs.)

• Will require concerted efforts and flexible & new products to expand outreach to cater to the emerging needs.

• Partial Credit Guarantee/ Risk Sharing Facility can be structured with a funded 1st loss in the range 5 – 15 percent with commercial banks sharing credit risk at least of 50 percent.

Support business

activity thru Loan

Restructuring

Encourage new

business activity thru

Liquidity Support

Build Livelihoods

with MFI support

• Could be moratorium on existing loans in affected districts to allow businesses to recuperate.

• Rescheduling/ restructuring can be done with some subsidy in interest rates but targeted with well defined eligibility criteria.

• Measures must be time bound – 2 years could be a reasonable period.

• Availability of the line of funding with some subsidy provided by State Bank ofPakistan (SBP) targeted for agri and MSME sectors in flood affected districts. Also, certain exemptions in creation of provisions for banks.

• Priority households should be identified by communities

• No blanket write-offs. Banks/ Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) to do detailed assessment and write-offs if any to be done on a case to case basis.

• Possible Risk Mitigation/ capital protection fund for MFIs to continue their on-lending activities and efforts to build livelihoods.

FINANCIAL SECTOR - NEEDS ASSESSMENT OF RECOVERY OF

BUSINESS

Sectors

Recovery Estimate

USD million

Public

Sector

Private

SectorTotal

Banks 328.96 94.64 423.60

MF Sector (MFI & MFBs) 39.44 39.44

Total 328.96 134.07 463.04

Governance & Governance

Infrastructure

Provinces/

National

District level

(No.)

Sub

Division/Tehsil

level

(No.)

UC/ Village level

(No.)

AJK 6 2 0

Balochistan 3 8 16

FATA 0 26 0

Gilgit Baltistan 5 12 21

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa112 263 505

Punjab 22 40 65

Sindh 45 184 102

Total193 535 709

GOVERNANCE SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES

GOVERNANCE SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY

RECOMMENDATIONS

Augment capacities

Use and strengthen

existing Public

Financial Management

(PFM) Systems

• Provinces and districts to mobilize / augment staff resources to meet Reconstruction & Rehabilitation (R&R) needs• Lack of capacities will result in implementation delays, cost overruns and

stakeholder frustration

Adopt Fast-track

Procurement

Improve

intergovernmental

coordination

Address Grievances

Expeditiously

• Ensure adequate and timely fund flow, remove duplications in authorizing fund release, track and reconcile expenditures, and establish accountabilities

• Weak PFM will result in delayed implementation & misuse of funds

• Provide for “fast-track” procurement with built-in transparency and accountability

• Adopting “business-as-usual” procurement procedures will slow down implementation.

• Establish robust grievance resolution mechanisms; formal and alternate dispute resolution mechanisms to be considered

• Unresolved disputes will disrupt reconstruction activity

• Mechanisms for vertical coordination between federal, provincial, and district governments and similarly mechanisms for horizontal coordination between various departments to be clarified

• Ineffective coordination will lead to duplication and implementation delays

GOVERNANCE SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

Province Damage

USD millions

Needs

USD millions

AJK 1.03 1.59


FATA 0.31 0.48



Punjab 11.27 2.22

Sindh 35.83 34.19

Sector Total 70.31 57.65

Health

Province/Region Total Health

Facilities of All

Categories

Number of Damaged

Health Facilities

Azad J. Kashmir 616 39

Balochistan 2,075 45

FATA 364 30

Gilgit Baltistan 731 3

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa1,739 190

Punjab 2,891 57

Sindh 1,305 151

TOTAL 9,721 515

HEALTH SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES

HEALTH SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Commitment to

provision and delivery

of quality health

services

Increase sector

performance by

introducing innovative

measures

Ministry of Health (MoH)/Department of Health (DoH) remain committed to provision and delivery of health services and strengthen reform efforts in health sector

MoH/DoH improve and strengthen health systems management by applying best practices in governance, financial, and human resource management

Improve disaster

preparedness and

response

Reconstruction

decision to be taken

after detailed damage

and need assessment

MoH/DoH increase sector performance by introducing innovative measures, such as public-private partnership, out-contracting, etc.

System inefficiencies, mismanagement, and lack of accountability in the existing system warrants out-of-the-box thinking and breaking away from the stereotypes

MoH/DoH address cross cutting issues: protection of vulnerable groups (women, mothers, children, elderly), micro-nutrition requirements, etc.

In the absence of good governance and proper sector management, mere increased resource allocation will not produce desired results

MoH/DoHs improve efficiency of disaster preparedness and response at all levels with short and medium/long term plans

Staff at district and tehsil levels be trained to respond to emergencies and take lead in coordinating with National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)/ Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) and international organizations in emergency response, DNAs, Early Recovery Plans, etc.

Government of Pakistan/DoH to take into consideration the pre-flood utilization rates and vulnerability to natural hazards of the damaged facilities, carry out a detailed damage assessment and cost-benefit analysis to facilitate decision for repairing/ reconstructing/doing-away the facilities

Better site selection and proper planning will help improve availability of and accessibility to health services

Protection of

vulnerable groups and

addressing

malnutrition

HEALTH SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

Province Damage

USD millions

Reconstruction

USD millions

AJK 2.4 2.3

Balochistan 2.2 2.1

FATA 1.08 1.06



Punjab 4.8 4.7

Sindh 22.6 22.2

Total 49.68 48.84

Housing

HOUSING SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES

ProvinceNumber of houses

damaged

Damage Value

USD millions

AJK 6,843 10

Baluchistan 79,720 97

FATA 5,419 4

Gilgit Baltistan 3,157 5

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 257,294 226

Punjab 375,773 322

Sindh 879,978 925

Sector Total 1,608,184 1,588

HOUSING SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS

Support Hazard -

Resistant

Reconstruction to

secure future

investments

•Base Case: Restore to pre-flood conditions; uniform katcha-standard. Subsidy of PKR 100,000 for reconstruction; PKR 50,000 for repairs. Not Recommended

• Option 2: Restore to flood-resistant standard. Subsidy of PKR 180,000 for reconstruction of flood-resistant hybrid house; PKR 50,000 for repairs. Recommended for Punjab & Sindh only

• Option 3: Restore to multi-hazard-resistant standard. Subsidy of PKR 415,000 for reconstruction of seismic-resistant pucca house; PKR 50,000 for repairs. Recommended

• All options assume unit size of 500 sq ft• Require assisted, inspected & certified tranche-basedreconstruction

Build-Back-

Smarter to

optimize costs

HOUSING SECTOR RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

Reconstruction Options:

1. Base case - Restore to pre-flood conditions; uniform kacha standard subsidy

2. Restore to flood-resistant standard; premium for flood-risk areas only

3. Restore to multi-hazard-resistant standard; premium for flood- and/or earthquake-risk areas only

All figures in USD millions

Province

Reconstruction

option 1 (Base Case)

Reconstruction

option 2

Reconstruction

option 3

Sindh 877 1,012 1,012

Punjab 296 365 365

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 207 210 488

Baluchistan 91 91 310

AJK 5 5 10

FATA 4 4 8


Sector Total 1,483 1,690 2,206

Irrigation and Flood Sector

IRRIGATION, DRAINAGE AND FLOOD SECTOR OVERVIEW OF

DAMAGES

ProvinceBarrages/ dams

(No)

Canal systems/

breaches

(No)

Irrigation

schemes

(No)

Flood

Embankment/

Spurs (No)

Drainage system

(No)

AJK 58

Balochistan 30 6 (80 locations) 50 55 9

FATA 66 52

Gilgit Baltistan 136

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa 14 13 systems 7 5

Punjab 1 7 (315 locations) 87 8

Sindh 6 main systems 6 main systems 5

WAPDA 1 4 (25 breaches) 1

IRRIGATION AND FLOOD SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY

RECOMMENDATIONS

Principles and

strategy for

reconstruction

The sector’s reconstruction strategy considers immediate/short-term (year 1) and medium-term (year 2-3) measures:

Immediate - restoring irrigation supplies for the winter crops short-term – putting drainage systems and public tubewells back into operation; strengthening vulnerable and damaged components of the barrages, embankments and river training works;Medium-term – reconstructing significantly damaged infrastructure and “remodeling” of certain structures for building-back-better

Option 1

Option 2 -

preferred

Reconstruction with remodeling of selected damaged infrastructure

Reconstruction as for Option 1 PLUS measures for improved flood protection and management:

“building-back-safer” for critical settlements and urban areas prone to flash floods and river bank erosion in AJK, GB and KP expansion of the Flood Early Warning System to Swat, Peshawar and DG Khan areas revisit the country’s overall flood management strategy

IRRIGATION AND FLOOD SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION

COSTS

Province/ Region/

Agency

Damage

USD millions

Needs: Option 1

USD millions

Needs: Option 2

USD millions

AJK 0.2 0.2 11.4

Balochistan 29.6 45.6 45.6

FATA 3.0 4.6 17.6

Gilgit Baltistan 1.6 2.5 27.2

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa

68.4 105.0 600.3

Punjab 33.1 50.9 50.9

Sindh 136.9 210.6 210.6

WAPDA 4.9 7.5 7.5

Pakistan

Met.Department

9.2

Federal Flood

Commission

2.0

Sector Total 277.6 427 982.3

Private Sector & Industries

PRIVATE SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES

Province Damaged

Industrial

Units

Damaged

Shops

Damaged

Mines

Damaged

Hotels

AJK - 494 - -

Balochistan - 6,519 - -

FATA - 217 - -

Gilgit Baltistan - 36 - -

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 89 17,617 236 85

Punjab 41 40,322 - -

Sindh 16 54,283 - -

Total 146 119,488 236 85

PRIVATE SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Option 1:

Facilitation Only

• Immediate restoration of normal business activities and some measures for long term sustainability• Facilitate establishment of Repair Centers in the affected districts• Business Development Centers should be established by the government for providing guidance to the entrepreneurs• In medium to long term, an ‘Enterprise Development Fund’ (EDF) should be established for SME development• Money from the proposed EDF should be used for supporting businesses for ‘building-back better’ by providing matching grants for market development, technological innovations, training and development, quality certifications, etc

Option 2: Facilitation

and Targeted

Subsidies

• Direct support through cash subsidies to selected number of the affected businesses• Support 40% of the affected shops by providing cash for rebuilding the lost structures and restocking of goods• Provide cash subsidies also to industrial sector to regenerate large number of jobs in minimum time• Since most of the damaged industrial units are SMEs, it is proposed to provide this subsidy to 70% of the damaged units (large units should not be eligible)• Another proposed support to industrial units is the subsidy in electricity bills for four months; support should be higher in initial months as an incentive to revive the units quickly• Similarly, cash subsidies should also be available to affected hotels and mines

PRIVATE SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

Province

Damage

USD millions

Needs:

Option 1

Facilitation Only

Option 2

Facilitation &

targeted

subsidies

USD millions USD millions

AJK 0.6 1.21 1.3


FATA 0.3 1.11 1.1

Gilgit Baltistan 0.03 1.04 1.0

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 55.2 20.9 26.3

Punjab 76.8 26.9 34.2

Sindh 138.2 45.3 58.0

Sector Total 282 102 129

Social & Gender

SOCIAL ASPECTS STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 1/2

Conduct Social and

Vulnerability

Assessment

Build Back Better

Lives

• Preexisting vulnerabilities have worsened. Women and children, already disadvantaged face the brunt of the disaster.

• Prior to finalizing recommendations roll out a vulnerability assessment with social and gender analysis collect both quantitative and qualitative data.

Remember ‘No One

Size Fits All’

• Each province has different dynamics. Pre-existing socio-economic differences, social relations ,geography and governance structures require a customized approach. Strengthen local government capacity to deliver services, partner with communities and CSOs.

• Building back infrastructure is not sufficient. Buildings are only as good as: services, access and affordability. Create opportunities. Distribute land, create assets , and support longer-term recovery

Support Community

Lead Reconstruction

with a communication

strategy

• Involving communities from the beginning improves the chances that recovery will be locally supported and sustainable. Loss of voice particularly for woman is a major risk. Put in place an effective communication strategy.

Respect Due

Process of Law

• “ Do No Further Harm” Hasty decision to relocate households from Katcha areas or consolidate communities must be accompanied by effective safeguards. Regional and international Law Precedents are available.

SOCIAL ASPECTS STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 2/2

Establish effective

Grievance

Lead by Example

• Put in place transparent grievance mechanisms

• Transparency builds trust. Regularly ,monitor budgets, set targets monitor expenditure and results. Disclose information.

• Conduct census to identify different social groups and target support for vulnerable groups. Develop a national rehabilitation Policy for Internally Displace People (IDPS). Opportunities exist for reviewing land administration and land management.

Conduct census and

Develop Policy

Livelihoods & Social Protection

11/14/2010 7:25 PM

LIVELIHOOD & SOCIAL PROTECTION SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES

Province Total Households Affected

(Millions)

Total Households

Eligible for Cash

Grants (Millions)

AJK 0.12 0.04


FATA 0.03 0.01

GB 0.03 0.01

KPK 0.36 0.28

Punjab 1.11 0.56

Sindh 1.12 0.86

Total 2.90 1.92

LIVELIHOOD & SP SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY

RECOMMENDATIONS

Cash or Food

Support

Employment &

Asset Generating

Schemes

•Unconditional Cash Transfers recommended in areas where there is market access ; food support in other areas.•Conditional Cash Transfers linked to education and primary health in areas without supply side issues.

Disaster

Preparedness &

Coordination

• Government sponsored public works, to rebuild, repair larger social and economic infrastructure; provide temporary employment.•Community Works to offer temporary employment in micro-projects while building up community assets.•Asset building by mobilizing community resources for intra-community lending; micro-credit, savings, insurance•Skills development to enhance livelihood opportunities; based on rigorous needs analysis

•Mapping of disaster prone areas; emphasize building codes, environmental standards, land use planning •Coordinate federal and provincial safety net mechanisms to mitigate effects of future disasters, cope with immediate post-disaster effects•Adopt a common targeting instrument for data consistency and use in times of emergency – Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) offers a good platform to link safety net initiatives.

* Cash support is recommended for the initial 6 months for poor immediately affected

by the floods; whereas the following recommendations apply for the post 6 months period. encompassing all poor in the flood affected districts.

LIVELIHOOD & SOCIAL PROTECTION SECTOR DAMAGE AND

REHABILITATION COSTS

Province Total Households Eligible for

Cash Grants (Millions)

Cash Grants to

Households

(US$ million)

AJK 0.04 15.8


FATA 0.01 4.4

GB 0.01 3.9

KPK 0.28 100.3

Punjab 0.56 215.6

Sindh 0.86 306.9

Total 1.92 683

Transport & Communication

TRANSPORT SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES

* 10% of the total road network is affected out of which 7% roads are completely destroyed** The length figures show both completely and partially damaged roads

Railways 1,224 Km railway line damaged

Telecommunication Damages to 734 km transmission line, 284 transmission stations and 594

exchange centre

Aviation Minor damages to 4 airports

Roads Length of road

network affected (km)

Provinces National

Highways

Provincial

Highways

District &

Municipal Roads

Total

AJK 35 3,540 3,575

Baluchistan 5 367 1,705 2,077

FATA 294 963 1,257


Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 402 259 5,850 6,511

Punjab 53 281 2,485 2,819

Sindh 265 1,925 6,277 8,467

Total 793 3,125 21,170 25,088

TRANSPORT SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Principles for

reconstruction

- Restoration of connectivity - complementarities with early recovery- Timely completion of rehabilitation and reconstruction works- Strategic planning - flood risks and transport infrastructure vulnerability

Strategy for

reconstruction

- Field verification, needs assessment and condition surveys prior to commencement- Early mobilization of existing capacities in road construction industry- Facilitate import of materials and machinery - Explore technological options in road construction - Synergy in flood protection and design of national, provincial and strategic communication links

TRANSPORT SECTOR DAMAGE AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

* Includes direct damages of $735 million which are calculated on the basis of depreciated replacement cost of damaged infrastructure

Province Damages

USD millions

Reconstruction Cost

USD millions

ROADS

AJK 35 104

Baluchistan 38 72

FATA 23 64

Gilgit Baltistan 15 56

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 338 690

Punjab 179 295

Sindh 605 791

RAILWAYS 60 239

TELECOMMUNICATION 35 44

AVIATION 0.7 0.9

Total 1,328* 2,356

Water & Sanitation

11/14/2010 7:25 PM

WATSAN SECTOR OVERVIEW OF DAMAGE

ProvinceWater Supply

No. of Schemes

SanitationNo. of Schemes

TotalNo. of Schemes

AJK 81 256 337a

Balochistan 146 - 146

FATA 168 - 168

Gilgit Baltistan 56 - 56

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa 2,812 1,111 3,923

Punjab 125 1,068b 1,193

Sindhc 611 407 1,018

Total 3,999 2,842 6,841

Note: Refers to fully and partially damaged schemes; most schemes suffered partial damage except for those in mountainous areas.a Includes community latrines.b Includes 798 damaged culverts.c Includes 438 village development association schemes in 17 Sindh districts that may be damaged; damage data pending.

WATSAN SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS

Repair approach with minimal technical upgrading•System cleaning, de-clogging and disinfection•Physical upgrades for disaster mitigation•Priority value additions for materials (plastic pipe, flow

meters, voltage stabilizers, power connections

Option 1

Option 2

Build back better for more efficiency and impact --preferred approach:

•System cleaning and physical upgrades under Option 1•Essential technical and non-technical software including

disaster planning and training; systems review; capital works and service delivery plans; energy audits; hygiene and sanitation awareness; and analysis of service delivery options

WATSAN SECTOR DAMAGE AND

RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

Province Damage

USD millions

Needs: Option 1

USD millions

Needs: Option 2

USD millions

AJK 3.2 5.7 6.5


FATA 0.7 1 1.3

Gilgit Baltistan 0.6 1 1.2

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa19.8 17 20.6

Punjab 21.6 10.1 15.2

Sindh 57.7 34.5 43.0

Sector Total 109.5 74 93.9

Documents

Pakistan 2010 Floods Damage and Needs Assessment Draft ...siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/DNAbyadb-wo… · 4 Social mobilization and training communities on preparedness/response