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W.E.Baethgen 2012
Improving adaptation to climate change for sustainable development
in the agricultural sector of Uruguay:
The National Agricultural Information System
Walter E. BaethgenDirector, Climate Services Program
International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyThe Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York
W.E.Baethgen 2012
Adapt to What?Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)
Complex models that simulate physical processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land
1. Great advances in science,but still lots to understand:Limitations of the Models
2. Key Input:GHG Emissions
Assumptions:(e.g., in 2080-2100)
Technologies? Energy Sources? Deforestation rates?Population?
Uncertainties(IPCC Scenarios)
W.E.Baethgen 2012
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO
2 p
pm
A1B
A1F
A2
B1
B2
CO2 atmospheric concentration for
different development options
Fuente: IPCC, 2001
Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios
In AR5: Radiative Forcing Values (similar assumptions)
W.E.Baethgen 2012
Uncertainty
Global TemperatureFor Diffrerent Socioeconomic Scenarios
Source: IPCC, 2007 At regional or local levels Uncertainty is much larger
W.E.Baethgen 2012
IPCC, 2007
Precipitation Projections for 2090-2099
For Rainfall uncertainties are much larger
Precipitation in DJF
W.E.Baethgen 2012
Giannini et al., 2007, IRI
At Regional level Uncertainties are larger(Individual Model Runs and Averages)
East Africa
This is for large “Windows”At Local Level Uncertainties are much larger
Decisions are made at Local (Regional) Level
W.E.Baethgen 2012
However: Published articles with Crop Yield as if Information was Perfect Projections for 2020, 2050, 2080
Uncertainty?
2020
2050
2080
• Conclusion: Climate Change Scenarios are Uncertain• IPCC’s objective was not to create scenarios for impact assessment
DANGER:This is easily understandableCan be “erroneously” believedCan Lead to “Maladaptation”
Percent change in Crop Yieldsfor one climate change scenario (one model)
W.E.Baethgen 2012
Climate Change Scenarios and Decision Makers:
Decision Makers (including Policy Makers): Pressure to act on immediate to short-term problems
Scientific Community: Climate Scenarios for 2080, 2100Great for Public Awareness, but CC is a problem of the FUTURE
CC scenarios: Uncertainty at regional / local level is huge
Result:
Adaptation to CC is often not in the policy agendas
Can it be incorporated into Planning, Development?
W.E.Baethgen 2012
A Different Approach for Adaptation Climate Change: Climate Risk Management
Work in Possible Ranges of “Near-term” Climate Change (i.e., 10-30 years):
Adapt with Flexibility (we do not have, and will not have “perfect information” on future climate)
Some of the most damaging impacts of Climate Change are expected to be due to increased Climate Variability (damaging/extreme events: droughts, floods).
Learning to cope with Current Climate Variability will lead to Less Vulnerable Societies Today that will be better prepared to Adapt to possible conditions of Future Climate
With this approach, actions are needed at a time scale that is relevant for Policy Makers
Climate Change is a problem of the PRESENT (happening already)as opposed to a problem of the FUTURE
W.E.Baethgen 2012
Gap between Science and Applications, Society
2. Science traditional reductionist approach: Create ‘islands of knowledge in a sea of ignorance’
(Meinke et al., 2007; 2009)
1. Decision-makers approach problems holistically and often intuitively
Conceptual Framework (1):
Need to Integrate Scientific Information into Decision Frameworks: How?
W.E.Baethgen 2012
Information and
DECISIONSUPPORTSYSTEMS
URUGUAY: DACC, SNIA = Climate Risk Management Approach and Tools
(Applied Systems Analysis Approach)
W.E.Baethgen 2012
SIMULATIONMODELS
REMOTESENSING
EXISTINGDATABASES
GIS
CLIMATEINFORMATION
Easily Understandable: Inform Decisions, Planning (Country, Region or Farm)
“Traffic light” colors
Tra
“Traffic light” colors
IRI is working with CCAFS and NARs:• Improving Adaptation to Current Climate Variability• Improving Crop Yield forecasts (Food Security)
Excellent example of Partnership CGIAR - ARI - NARI
W.E.Baethgen 2012
Uruguay’s National Agricultural Information System
Crop Production Outlooks (Food Security) with CCAFS (CGIAR)
Assess feasibility of Agricultural Technologies (e.g., irrigation)
Assess Sustainability of Production Systems (e.g., land use)
Assist DACC Project in Sustainability of Investments in Farms
Evaluate modalities of Agricutlural Insurance (e.g., Weather Index)
Establish Early Warning and Early Response Systems (e.g., Drought)
For Current Climate and for a Range of Plausible Climate Conditions in the Future (Adapt with Flexibility)
W.E.Baethgen 2012
Final Comments
Improving adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector of Uruguay:Fundamentally Focussed in Improving Adaptation to Today’s Climate and to a range of Plausible Future Climate Conditions (Adapt with Flexibility).
DACC Project: loan from The World Bank (Inter-American Bank)May affect how we start approaching Adaptation to Climate Changein the world (linked to Development, to Actions Today and Near Future, to Risk Management)
DACC Project is an excellent example of CGIAR (CCAFS) partnering with other International Institutes (IRI) and National Institutes (INIA, Min. Agr., University)to respond to demand of public and private stakeholders
W.E.Baethgen 2012
Thank you
Walter E. BaethgenDirector, Latin America and Caribbean Program (LAC)IRI, The Earth Institute at Columbia UniversityColumbia University, New York
email: [email protected]: http://iri.columbia.edu/