P roject P erformance M anagement S ystem (PPMS)

PPMS

PProject roject PPerformanceerformanceMManagement anagement SSystem (PPMS)ystem (PPMS)

PProject roject PPerformanceerformanceMManagement anagement SSystem (PPMS)ystem (PPMS)

Results-focused Design and Management of Projects

Phnom Penh Plan (April 2010)

PPMS

What is Management for Development Results (MfDR)?

Management for Development Results

is a management strategy

focusing on performance

and on achievement of

outputs, outcomes and impacts.

PPMS

Why MfDR?

• Moves the focus of managing and decision-making from “backward-looking” to “forward-looking”

• Helps create a “learning culture” through feedback loops and opportunities for improvement

PPMS

MfDR

Inputs Activities OutcomesOutputs Impacts

(1) Planning(Defining desired

results)

(2) Measure performance

(Monitoring and evaluation)

(3) Use performance information (Feedback-loop)

Managing for Development Results

International Agreements and Commitments (MDGs etc.)

Overall Developme

nt Effectivene

ss

National Poverty Reduction Strategy

Development ImpactSector Road Maps

Development Outcome/Outputs

Programs, Projects, TAs

PPMS

Components of PPMS

Design and Monitoring Framework

Development

Outcome

Programs, Projects, TAs

EvaluationManage-

mentDesign

Post Evaluatio

n

Reporting

PPMS

• Design and Monitoring Frameworks are a tool only!

• Using the appropriate Process improves prospects

for achieving results during implementation.

PPMS

The Process Situation Assessment

• Problem Analysis

• Stakeholder Analysis

Solution Development

• Alternatives Analysis

• Project Strategy

• Objectives Analysis

PPMS

The ResultDesign and Monitoring Framework

Problem analysis

Objectives

Alternatives

Design Assumptions

& Risks

Performance

Targets

Data Sources

Design Summary

A & RIMPACT

ACTIVITIES & MILESTONES INPUTS

OUTPUT A & R

OUTCOME A & R

Assumptions

& Risks

Performance

Targets

Data Sources

Design Summary

A & RIMPACT


OUTPUT A & R

OUTCOME A & R

Assumptions

& Risks

Performance

Targets

Data Sources

Design Summary

A & RIMPACT


OUTPUT A & R

OUTCOME A & R

PPMS

Paper Flow and Design Process

Project Concept

Paper

Project Preparatory

Technical Assistance

Paper

Draft Project Design Report

Report and Recommendation of the President

PAM PPR

Situation Analysis



Stakeholder Analysis

Problem Analysis

Objectives Analysis

Alternatives Analysis

PPMS

The Design Process

Situation Analysis




Problem Analysis

Objectives Analysis


PPMS

Project defined….

An intervention to create positive change in an existing situation

PPMS

Think about this…..

• All projects bring about CHANGE

• People and institutions make change succeed or fail

Who are the persons behind the achievements and difficulties in your project?

PPMS

Project management needs to constantly-

• Identify• Understand• Engage, involve and• Coordinate best

efforts of…..

Key stakeholders at all stages of project design and implementation

PPMS

Projects call for continuous…

• Consultation & Communication (for ownership)

• Participation in the Process of Decision-making (for involvement and commitment)

• Checking for Consensus that Project’s changes outweigh Risks (for sustainability)

PPMS

Change Drivers

• Who are most concerned about outcomes?STAKEHOLDERS

• What justifies this investment of public funds over other competing needs ?BENEFITS

• What endangers this justification?RISKS

• What sustains the attractiveness of the change?STRATEGIES (correctly crafted, addresses the stakeholders’ problems, effectively implemented)

PPMS


A diagnostic tool to

– identify key stakeholders

– clarify their interests

– comprehend their perception of the problem

– specify their resources (supportive and destructive)

– outline their mandate

Stakeholder analysis is a continuous process

PPMS

Helpful Stakeholders to enlist….

• ADVOCATES – Idea creators, designers • CHAMPIONS - to lead the change• SUPPORTERS - “critical mass”• DECISIONMAKERS (to approve the activation

of critical change enablers – policies, funds, people)

• OPINION LEADERS - decision-swayers, special interest groups that sustain people’s awareness of the need for change (lobby groups, media)

PPMS

Strategic Analysis of Stakeholders

Assess:Aspirations, interests (share the vision?)Problem Perception (each one sees different

aspects of the same problem – which aspect?)Resources, mandate (capable and motivated to

participate and contribute?)Ways to enlist participation in the project (How

to involve them in the project so that envisioned changes can happen?)

Analysis is done & checked at various points in project design and implementation!!

PPMS

Groups Interests Problem Perception

Resources &/or

Mandate

Role in

Project

1.

2.

3.

4.

Stakeholder Table

Strongly encouraged for use of TA and project design

Stakeholder Table: Public Transport Ex.

Stakeholder Interests Problem Perception

Resources Mandate

Passengers Safe, reliable, and reasonable public transport

Many delays

Frequent bus

breakdowns

Frequent accidents

Impolite drivers

Dangerous driving

Willingness to pay for improved services

Not applicable

Private Car owners

No traffic jams and safe roads

Too many accidents caused by buses

May consider use of public transport if reliable and safe

Not applicable

Mayor of Arusha

Reliable, low-cost public transport system

Citizen complaints

about public

transport system

Increased traffic jams

Veto power in Council

Commands popular support

To manage City of Arusha

PPMS

CASE STUDY

• Read the Case Study

• Identify 3 of the most important STAKEHOLDERS

• Analyze the Stakeholders using the Stakeholder Table

PPMS

More tips for use of meta cards:

• Write your own statement on a card.• Write only one idea on a card.• Express your statement in a concise sentence

using no more then 3 lines. • Make your sentence specific.• Stick to the facts and avoid abstractions and

generalizations.• Write your cards before you begin discussion.

PPMS

The Design Process

Situation Analysis




Problem Analysis

Objectives Analysis


PPMS

“Doctor, doctor!”I’ve been bitten by a mosquito and

exposed to malaria so I need

chloroquine urgently

Limited information

Diagnosis without

participation

Jumping to conclusions

Instant prescriptions and solutions

PPMS

Problem Tree• A diagnostic tool to

– analyse the existing situation surrounding a given problem context

– identify major problems associated with the stated negative condition

– visualize cause-effect relationships and interrelationships

Strongly encouraged for use of TA and project design

PPMS

How to state problems….

• Negative condition• Owned by a stakeholder/group (whose

problem is it?)• Specific and clearExample:Wrong – “Poor quality of products” Better – “Processed wool does not meet

international quality standards”

StarterProblem

Problem Tree:PublicTransport

PPMS

Industries lack access to power

Industries lack access to power

Low private sector investment

Low private sector investment

Insufficient power stations

Insufficient power stations

High transmission losses

High transmission losses

Poor planning by central power

authority

Poor planning by central power

authority

Insufficient investmentin upgrading equipment

Insufficient investmentin upgrading equipment

Poor maintenance practices

Poor maintenance practices

No accountability by public monopoly

No accountability by public monopoly

Politically depressed user charges

Politically depressed user charges

Starter Problem

Low economic growth

Low economic growth

Lower than desired employment

Lower than desired employment

AnotherExample

PPMS Module 2

Samoan Education

Young people are not employed in formal and

informal (village) sectors

Students dropping out

Insufficient in- service training

Education Dep’t lacks mgmt capability to address policy etc

Inefficiently managed schools

Overcrowding in key schools

Inadequate facilities at alternative schools

Inadequate teacher skills

Inadequate planning

Vague Standards

Ineffective school committees

Poor quality of Education

Trained teachers leaving

the system

Other causes Graduates’ skills are not adequate for informal sector

?

SC cannot raise funds

Curriculum lacks practical skills trng

Curriculum not linked to

employment sectors’ needs

Unclear roles

Starter Problem

Outdated curriculum

Another example

PPMS

Activity in Progress

PPMS

Case Study Tasks

– Read the background– Construct a problem

tree– Use the cards and pin

boards – Can use your own

experience

to go beyond available information

– Present back to the Group

PPMS

Doesn’t matter what form it takes as long as it helps us

understand the problem

PPMS

The Design Process

Situation Analysis




Problem Analysis

Objectives Analysis


PPMS

Objectives Tree

• Gives a picture of the “changed or desired situation”

• Helps stakeholders imagine what will be required to achieve the change and maintain more control over planning the change

• Facilitates the formulation of success indicators that are realistic, acceptable, and owned by the stakeholders

PPMS

Objectives Tree – How?

• Process involves converting problem into a ‘positive condition’ then checking –

– Does the objective statement make sense as an “improved condition?” [realistic? possible?]

– Have we left out anything in our problem analysis that will need to be addressed to achieve this desired “improved condition?”

– What do stakeholders think or how might they react? – What might be possible risks and assumptions?

PPMS

Frequent delays

SBC public transport service is unreliable und

unsafe

Demand for SBC services declining

Frequent bus accidents

Drivers have poor driving skills

Bus fleet is in poor condition

Roads in poor condition

Poor bus maintenance

Lack of spare parts

Poorly skilled bus mechanics

Small budget for maintenance

No investment budget

Buses are old

SBC runs operating loss

Fares only cover 75% of operating

budget

No skills training and testing

Import restrictions

City Council has different priorities

Increased traffic congestion

Frequent breakdown of buses

Inadequate traffic management

No minimum driving skills

required

Drastic increase of private cars

Increased pollution

Increased per capita transport

costs

Police overwhelmed with increased traffic

Traffic flows smoothly

Exhaust pollution stabilized

Transport cost per capita remains

unchanged Growth of new

private car regis-tration stagnates

Public transport is

an attractive alternative to

private transport

SBC provides reliable and safe public transport

services

Drivers obey traffic rules

Special bus driving licenses

introduced Police apply traffic

control plan

SBC achieves financial self-

sufficiency

Bus replacement schedule finalized

Non-formal skills training and

testing started

Government grants import

licenses for spare parts

Bus schedule and utilization optimized

Bus maintenance improved

Bus fleet functions well

Bus accidents are rare

Road network is well maintained

City Council focuses on road

maintenance

Development Problem

Development Objective

StarterProblem

StarterObjective

Objectives Tree

PPMS

Case Study• Break into the same groups as

before

• Refer to your Problem Tree

• Develop an Objective statement for each problem (don’t skip any!)

• Present back to the group

PPMS

PPMS

The Design Process

Situation Analysis




Problem Analysis

Objectives Analysis


PPMS

Preparatory Steps forScoping the Project

1. Validate the positive conditions in the Objectives Tree with those knowledgeable (stakeholders themselves) and other projects (development experts)

2. Check whether these changes are attainable and wanted by those who need to make these changes? (Conduct stakeholder workshops with those who are directly involved in the changes)

3. Motivate Stakeholders to try out the change with the help of models and testimonials

PPMS

“Results Chains”

• Helps in assisting stakeholders “own” the project by analyzing their “part” in the Objectives Tree

• Clarifies the changes that stakeholders aspire to have and checks on their willingness and readiness to carry these out

PPMS

How to do a Results Chain

• Identify the owners of means-end chains in the Objectives Tree

• Have each stakeholder-owner assess the feasibility of achieving their means-end chain before deciding whether this should be included in the project design

External Consultants and Experts should share their experiences to encourage stakeholders to consider the change

PPMS

Frequent delays


unsafe







Lack of spare parts




Buses are old



budget


Import restrictions



Frequent break-down of buses



required


Increased pollution


costs







Public transport is


private transport


services




control plan


sufficiency



testing started









maintenance

Development Problem


StarterProblem

StarterObjective

SBC COMPANY

POLICE

PUBLIC WORKS

RESULTS CHAINS

PPMS

Helpful criteria in deciding on Results Chains

AVOIDBias in solutions?

EAConsultants

ADB Community

Desirable?Less risk?

Faster or slower implementation?Less or more cost?

Greater or lesser chance of sustainability?

Acceptability of the change to members of the group? to

the institutions’ culture?

PPMS

Results Chain 1: Stakeholder - Police (Law Enforcement

Agency)

Special bus driving

licenses introduced

Special bus driving

licenses introduced

Drivers obey traffic rulesDrivers obey traffic rules

Police apply adequate

traffic control plan

Police apply adequate

traffic control plan



Adequate traffic

management

Adequate traffic

management

SBC provides reliable and safer public

transport services


transport services

Can we minimize

corruption?

Can we implementthis? Will it be

accepted?

Will we have enoughtraffic enforcers

to managetraffic?

PPMS

Results Chain 2: Stakeholder - SAFARI Bus Company

Spare parts are

available

Spare parts are

available

Bus maintenance

improved

Bus maintenance

improved

Bus schedule and utilization

optimized

Bus schedule and utilization

optimized



Can we sustain this? And for how long?

Can we import the needed

spare parts?

Can we find trainable mechanics?

Bus replacement

schedule implemented

Bus replacement

schedule implemented

Skilled mechanics maintain

buses

Skilled mechanics maintain

buses


transport services


transport services

Can we fund the investment by increasing

bus fares? NO. Mayor will not approve this idea!

SBC is financially

self-sufficient

SBC is financially

self-sufficient

PPMS

Results Chain 3: Local Government (Public Works, Mayor &

Council of Arusha)

City Council focuses on

road maintenance

City Council focuses on

road maintenance

Road network is well-

maintained

Road network is well-

maintained

Budget for maintenance is sufficient

Budget for maintenance is sufficient

Can Public Works Deptmaintain road network?

Public Works Dept budget is insufficient

to maintain roads.

Can Council convince Mayorto cut SBC subsidy and increase fares to fund

road maintenance?NO


transport services


transport services

PPMS

Value of Analyzing Results Chains

• Stakeholders make known their willingness to implement the change defined in their “results chain”

• They define ways to measure success of the change (indicator), and the extent of what is realistically achievable (target)

• They identify accompanying objectives and conditions to make this change possible

PPMS

Frequent delays


unsafe







Lack of spare parts




Buses are old



budget


Import restrictions



Frequent break-down of buses



required


Increased pollution


costs







Public transport is


private transport


services




control plan


sufficiency



testing started









maintenance

Development Problem


StarterProblem

StarterObjective

SBC COMPANYYES to MaintainNO to Replace

POLICEYES!

PUBLICWORKS NO

PPMS

From Objectives Tree to Design Summary

• Each stakeholder group declares what change (results chains) they can work on.

• By consolidating their different results chains, stakeholders agree on a common statement of Project Outcome, Outputs, indicators and targets

PPMS

Design Summary: Public TransportIMPACT: The transport system of Arusha is functioning well.

OUTCOME: SBC provides safe and reliable public transport services.

OUTPUTS:

1. Bus fleet is well maintained.

2. Drivers observe safety and traffic regulations.

Note: Road Maintenance becomes a critical assumption!!!

PPMS


ACTIVITIES

Design Summary

Performance Targets

Data Source Assumptions/ Risks

OUTCOME

IMPACT

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES INPUTSINPUTS

Design and Monitoring Framework ReferenceVersion

ACTIVITIES

Design Summary

Performance Targets

Data Source Assumptions/ Risks

OUTCOME

IMPACT

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES INPUTSINPUTS

Design and Monitoring Framework ReferenceVersion

With problem analysis,

objectives analysis and alternatives

completed, now we are able to complete the

design summary

PPMS

1st Step - Outcome Design Summary

OUTCOME

IMPACT

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES

Why do you want to do the project?

What is the problem or constraint you hope to resolve ?

What IMMEDIATE OUTCOME do you expect to achieve from using the completed outputs?

Style of Outcome Statement

Safari Bus Company provides safe and reliable public transport services.

[change statement, not an action statement, that will either involve beneficiaries using the project outputs to achieve an outcome, or performance

changes of systems or institutions]

PPMS

2nd Step - IMPACTDesign Summary

OUTCOME

IMPACT

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES

What is the high level, long range ‘VISION’ to which this project will contribute? Should be the same as or support institutional and national goals

Style of Impact Statement

The transport system of Arusha is functioning well

PPMS

3rd Step - OutputsDesign Summary

OUTCOME

IMPACT

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES

What, specifically, will the project produce, provide or leave behind?

What are the “DELIVERABLES”?

e.g. Infrastructure, New Policies & Procedures, Strengthened Institutions, Skilled Personnel

Examples Output Statement1. Bus fleet is well maintained.

2. Drivers observe safety and traffic regulations..

PPMS

4th Step - ActivitiesDesign Summary

OUTCOME

IMPACT

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES

What, specifically, is the project GOING TO DO?

For example: ‘Build…’, ‘Train…’, ‘Equip…’, ‘Develop Policy….’, ‘Draft Legislation…’, ‘Conduct Surveys…’ all action statements

Sample Activities

Output 1. Bus fleet is well maintained.

1.1 Establish and follow the bus maintenance schedule.

1.2 Establish and operate an inventory control system.

1.3 Obtain preferential import license for spare parts.

1.4 Procure spare parts.

1.5 Upgrade mechanical workshop. Upgrade skills of bus mechanics.

Output 2. Drivers observe safety and traffic regulations.

2.1 Introduce a national bus driver license and examination system.

2.2 Establish bus safety and operating regulations.

2.3 Train and test bus drivers.

2.4 Introduce incentives for safe driving.

PPMS

5th Step - InputsDesign Summary

OUTCOME

IMPACT

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES INPUTS

What RESOURCES does the project need to do its work? e.g. Consultants, Equipment, Civil Works, Training, Funding, including counterparts

ADB – $15 millionConsulting services 50 PM – $1.25 millionCivil works – $2 million Equipment - $8 millionTraining– $2.75 million Contingencies – $1 millionGovernment – $5 million Personnel 150 PM – $2 million Transport and logistics – $1.5 millionOperating expenses – $1.5 million

PPMS

Case Study

Complete the Design Summary Column

• Outcome• Impact• Outputs• Activities

based on the project scoping “results chains”

ears neckfeet

PPMS

Activity in Progress

PPMS

Building CHANGE MANAGEMENT

into Project Design • Who are most concerned about outcomes?

STAKEHOLDERS – Check if important Stakeholders’ problems are addressed in the Outcome and Outputs

• What justifies this investment of public funds over other competing needs ?BENEFITS – check if Outcome contribution to Impact justifies the project (versus competing use of scarce funds)

• What sustains the attractiveness of the change?STRATEGIES (correctly crafted, effectively implemented)Check if set of Outputs is the best package to achieve the Outcome, if Activities tell a convincing story for successful implementation.

• What endangers this justification?RISKS – check if you can get support for Risk Mitigation measures

PPMS

Performance

Indicators and Targets

PPMS

Indicators in the Design Framework

Design Summary

Performance Targets

Data SourceAssumptions/

Risks

OUTCOME

IMPACT

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES INPUTS

Need both an indicator

description and a target at each level

PPMS

TIPSIndicators need to be practical:

• Remember that stakeholders need feedback to monitor the progress of the change (and be convinced!)

• Consider available data first (secondary sources)• Measure only what is important• Limit the number of indicators to the minimum

necessary to measure the respective result level• Ensure that the means of measuring is cost-

effective

PPMS

How to start….

• Specific – precise and unambiguous

• Measurable – reliable and verifiable

• Achievable – realistic

• Relevant - sufficient to assess performance

• Time bound – allows effective management action (corrective measures, decisions)

What is available now with the EA? What did we use to confirm problems? What other agencies may have relevant indicators or data? ADB expertise?

PPMS

Management-friendly Indicators

Lead or Process Indicators – intermediate performance targets to monitor progress, i.e. measure increased higher education attainment by (i) % reduction of drop-out rate p.a., (ii) % increased enrollment rate p.a.

Proxy Indicators – used when specific indicators are not practical, i.e. require extensive collection of primary data (measure increased rural income by (i) % increase of tin roofs, (ii) % increase of bicycles

PPMS

How to state indicators

• Quantity

• Quality

• Cost

• Time

• Customer/Community satisfaction

PPMS

Step-by-Step 1. Determine the basic indicators – e.g. more and

better educated students graduate.

2. Decide on the quantity – The number of graduates increases from 10,000 to 25,000

3. Describe the quality – The number of graduates (55%female and 45% male) passing national standard examination from lower income families ($5,000 p.a.) in south-east province increases from 10,00 to 25,000.

PPMS

Step-by-Step, cont.

4. Add the time frame - The number of graduates (55%female and 45% male) passing national standard examination from lower income families ($5,000 p.a.) in south-east province increases from 10,00 to 25,000 per annum starting in year 4 of project implementation.

PPMS

Indicator

The number of graduates (55%female and 45% male) passing national standard examination from lower income families ($5,000 p.a.) in south-east province increases from 10,00 to 25,000 per annum starting in year 4 of project implementation.

PPMS

Performance Targets/Indicators of the Public Transport ProjectDesign Summary Performance Targets/Indicators

Impact The transport system of Arusha is functioning well.

The time to cross Arusha by public and private transport is reduced by 25% by the year 2008.

Outcome SBC provides safe and reliable public transport services.

The number of accidents involving SBC buses declines by 50% from X in the base year to Y at the end of project implementation. The use of SBC buses stabilizes at 500,000 passengers annually during project implementation and increases by X% annually thereafter. Delays (5 min. later than scheduled) drop from 1,000 per year in 2005 to 200 per year by the end of the project implementation.

Outputs 1. Bus fleet is well maintained.

2. Drivers observe safety and traffic regulations.

O1: The breakdown of buses drops from X in year 1, to Y in year 2, and falls below Z thereafter. O2: The number of infractions on traffic regulations falls from x in year 1, to y in year 2, and stabilizes at z thereafter.

PPMS

A reminder

• The involvement of stakeholders in the formulation of indicators and setting targets is essential.

• Reaching agreement on the targets among those who design, those who will implement, and those who are to benefit, increases ownership and likelihood of success.

PPMS

Data SourcesReporting Mechanisms

• Where can information on the status of each indicator be obtained (secondary data)

• Who provides the information?• How is the information collected (primary data), i.e.

sample or full surveys, project records, participatory or rapid rural appraisal methods, focus group discussions, field observations, balanced score cards.

PPMS

Step-by-Step1. Review existing information systems relevant for the

project and assess credibility, and timely availability of the data.

2. Do an inventory of secondary sources—data that is collected and published regularly, i.e. consumer price index, export statistics, national account information, school enrollment figures.

3. If it is necessary to collect primary data,

check if EA is willing, and has the capacity to collect primary data. (include in project design)

PPMS

Design Summary Performance Targets/Indicators Data Sources/ Reporting Mechanisms



Annual traffic investigation reports of the City Council Traffic Control Center.


The number of accidents involving SBC buses declines by 50% from X in the base year to Y at the end of project implementation. The use of SBC buses stabilizes at 500,000 passengers annually during project implementation and increases by X% annually thereafter. Delays (5 min. later than scheduled) drops from 1,000 incidences in 2005 to 200 per year by the end of the project implementation.

Annual traffic accident reports of the Police Department. Audited annual statistics and accounts of SBC submitted to the City Council.Bus drivers log books, collated in SBC’s monthly statistics on bus operation.

Outputs 1. Bus fleet is well maintained. 2. Drivers observe safety and traffic regulations.

O1: The breakdown of buses drops from X in year 1, to Y in year 2, and falls below Z thereafter. O2: The number of infractions on traffic regulations falls from x in year 1, to y in year 2, and stabilizes at z thereafter.

Records of the mechanical workshop collated, and published in SBC’s audited annual report. Monthly police reports on traffic infractions disaggregated by type of vehicle.

Public Bus Transport Project: Data Sources

PPMS

Case Study • Examine the

design summary.• Consider what

indicators

should be

applicable

PPMS

Assumptions and Risks• PPMS expects

– A process for determining A & R– Assessment of significance and likelihood to

project success – Consideration of what should be done – Portrayal of assumptions and risks in the

Design Framework for understanding by readers and Stakeholders

PPMS

Assumptions and Risks

Design Summary

Performance Targets

Data SourceAssumptions/

Risks

OUTCOME

IMPACT

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES INPUTS

PPMS

AssumptionsAn external condition which is

essential to the project’s success but beyond its control

Example: Road

Network

Need to make

assumptions

PPMS

The ResultDesign and Monitoring Framework

Problem analysis

Objectives

Alternatives

Design Assumptions

& Risks

Performance

Targets

Data Sources

Design Summary

A & RIMPACT


OUTPUT A & R

OUTCOME A & R

Assumptions

& Risks

Performance

Targets

Data Sources

Design Summary

A & RIMPACT


OUTPUT A & R

OUTCOME A & R

Assumptions

& Risks

Performance

Targets

Data Sources

Design Summary

A & RIMPACT


OUTPUT A & R

OUTCOME A & R

PPMS

Areas of risks and assumptions

• Financial and economic risks

• Environmental risks• Political risks• Operational risks• Technical risks• Security risks• Social risks

Assumptions onmarket conditions/prices

macroeconomic policies/conditions

political and social conditions sector policies and conditions

environmental conditions private sector capability

government administrative capability

community/NGO support counterpart funding.

PPMS

Step-by-Step1. Is the assumption/risk external?

Yes No (don’t include)

2. Is the assumption important? risk high?Yes No (don’t include)

3. How likely is it to become reality?

Almost certain Somewhat likely Unlikely (redesign) (include) (don’t include)KILLER ASSUMPTION

PPMS

Assumption/Risk MatrixMonitor- consider Mitigating

Killer:Rethink Project

Monitor

Monitor- consider Mitigatin

g

Mitigate -Prepare

Plan

Ignore Monitor

Monitor- consider Mitigatin

g

Mitigate -Prepare

PlanA

: C

riti

cality

/Im

port

an

ce

R:

Lik

elih

ood

High

Medium

Low

Low

Medium

High

A: Probability of Failure R: Expected Impact

PPMS

Risk Responses “AMA”

• Avoidance– Eliminate the cause of the threat

• Mitigation– Take preventive measures- to reduce

likelihood of occurrence or impact if it does

• Acceptance– Accept consequences and/or– Develop a contingency plan

PPMS

Design Summary Performance Targets/Indicators

Data Sources/ Reporting Mechanisms

Assumptions and Risks



Annual traffic investigation reports of the City Council Traffic Control Center.

A: The City Council’s policy regarding the provision of public transport services by SBC remains unchanged.


The number of accidents involving SBC buses declines by 50% from X in the base year to Y at the end of project implementation. The use of SBC buses stabilizes at 500,000 passengers annually during project implementation and increases by X% annually thereafter. Delays (5 min. later than scheduled) drops from 1,000 incidences in 2005 to 200 per year by the end of the project implementation.

Annual traffic accident reports of the Police Department. Audited annual statistics and accounts of SBC submitted to the City Council.Bus drivers log books, collated in SBC’s monthly statistics on bus operation.

A: The Public Works Department ensures that the road network is well maintained, following a maintenance standard. A: Operating expenses, e.g., oil, remain stable.

Outputs 1. Bus fleet is well maintained. 2. Drivers observe safety and traffic regulations.

The breakdown of buses drops from X in year 1, to Y in year 2, and falls below Z thereafter. The number of infractions on traffic regulations falls from x in year 1, to y in year 2, and stabilizes at z thereafter.

Records of the mechanical workshop collated, and published in SBC’s audited annual report. Monthly police reports on traffic infractions disaggregated by type of vehicle.

R: Customs clearance of spare parts continues to be delayed by more than 2 weeks after arrival of shipment. A: The Union of bus drivers incorporates the safety regulations and driving license policy in the bus drivers’ code of conduct. R: Trained bus drivers leave SBC within 1 year of completing the bus driving license to join private bus operators.

Public Bus Transport Project

PPMS

Summing up Assumptions and Risks

• Need to ensure they are placed in the right position – otherwise confusing

• Few, but relevant • Indicate assumption or risk [needed for PPR]• How will you monitor them [as required by PPR]

– how will you know if things change? • Active role of Stakeholders in identification and

monitoring

Documents

P roject P erformance M anagement S ystem (PPMS)