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P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
The Energy-Environment Problem and
Superconductivity TechnologyPaul M. Grant
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Mega-Cities
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
The “Trilemma”
• Economic Growth
• Energy Consumption
• Conservative & Environment
“…to save the earth andassure the survival of humanity.”
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Energy Civilization
Year (Modern Era)
Rel
ativ
e U
nits
Nuclear
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Economic Growth &Energy Consumption
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Global Energy Consumption
Source: International Energy Outlook: 1998
US Energy Information Agency
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Elements of the Trilemma
Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse…Albrecht Duerer
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
North American Grid
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
US Energy Flow - 1995
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Electricity & Energy Conservation
E/GNP (index: 1900=100) Electricity (%)
E/GNP ratio
Electricityfraction
Source: Electricity in the American Economy, Sam H. Schurr, et al., 1990
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
50
40
30
20
10
150
130
110
90
70
50
2010
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
US Electricity Flow: 1994
1 Quad = 0.29 TkWh
0.28 TkWh
0.15 TkWh
3.24 TkWh
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Electricity Paradigmand Superconductivity
• Generation/Storage– Generators, SMES, Flywheels
• Transmission/Distribution– Cables, Transformers, FCLs
• Delivery/End Use– Motors, Electromagnets
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Electricity-Transportation Analogy
Electricity Transportation
· Fuel
· Generation
· Natural Resources
· Manufacturing/Agriculture
· Transmission Electrons· Distribution
· Interstate Highways Trucks· Regional Freeways
· End Uses· Lighting· Rotating Machinery· Appliances
· Retail Sales· Home Depot· Sears· Safeway
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
U.S. ElectricityProduction/Loss Summary
TkWh % in T&D Lossand In-Plant
Use
Revenue@
$0.10/kWh(B$)
No. of 500MW PlantEquivalents
Capital Cost@ $800/kW
(B$)
Total 3.24 324 740 296
T&DLosses
0.28 8% 28 63 25
In-PlantUsed
0.15 5% 15 35 14
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Superconductivityand Efficiency
1994 2014@ 2%/yr
2014Plants Saved
0.2%Penetration4× Efficiency
Total 740 360
T&D Losses 63 31 11
In-House Use 35 17 6
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
North American CH4
There’s Lots of It
3D SeismicImaging PlusDirectionalDrilling
50 Years at‘97 Prices!
EPRI
Natural Gas IndustryNatural Gas IndustryEstimates of Remaining ReservesEstimates of Remaining Reserves
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
24002400
20002000
16001600
12001200
800800
400400
00
3D Seismic Imaging3D Seismic Imaging
EPRI
TcfTcf
TrendlineTrendlineGRIPGC
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Gas or Electricity?Pipes or Wires?
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Distributed Generation
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
MicroTurbines
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
MicroTurbines
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Distributed Generation:US &Europe
• Use widespread NG pipeline network• Generation plants sited locally
– Community of 60,000: 50-100 MW– Subdivision of 1-2000: 3-5 MW– Single Family Dwelling: 20-30 kW
(100,000 btu/hr)
• Some level of storage required• “Loosely” connected to grid
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Renewables
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
“Fuel-Head” and/orNuclear Generation
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Power by HTSC:Southeast Asia
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
1967 SC Cable !
100 GW dc, 1000 km !
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
The SuperconductingElectricity Pipe!
I
-V
Ground
Structural Support
SuperconductingElectricityPipeline
ThermalInsulation
ElectricalInsulation
Superconductor(-V)
Superconductor(+V)
+VI
LiquidNitrogen
• Total Cryo System
• Power: 5 GW dc
• Cost: < Gas, HVDC > 500 Miles
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Operating Parameters
Capacity 50 kA, ±50 kV; %GMW
Length 1610 km
Temperature Rise,1 K every 10 km, 65 K,1 W/m heat input
21,600 liters LN2/hr,100 kW coolers, 120gal/min
Vacuum 10-5-10-4 torr 10 stations/10 km need200 kW
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Gas/HVDC Comparison
Marginal Cost of Electricity (Mid Value Fuel Costs)
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Miles
c/k
Wh
LVDC ($5.5/kA-m @ 65K)
LVDC ($10/kA-m @ 77K)
HVDC
gas pipeline
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Adaptation
Over 10,000 feared dead andmissing in Nicaragua andHonduras from Hurricane Mitch. Many more withoutshelter.
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
November 10, 1998THE FIRST BIG SNOWSTORMof the season swept across the northern Plains onTuesday, shutting down a major highway and sending hundreds of cars skidding into ditches. It also spun off thunderstormsthat flattened houses in aMissouri university town.
One person was killed in a car crash in Minnesota,
where up to a foot of snow and 40 mph wind were
expected by Tuesday night.
The storm dumped up to 2 feet of snow in the Colorado Rockies, knocking out power to 10,000 people around Durango, Colo.
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
The Standard Model
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
Low Field VHLC Prototype
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
3 TeV VHLCBooster Siting
~ 150 m
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
P. M. Grant 17 November 1998
The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology
The Future
700 K !
May, 2028