Ozone NAAQS Implementation

WESTAR Fall Meeting

September 29, 2010

Scott Mathias, Associate Director

Air Quality Policy Division

2

Proposed Designation Schedules

• EPA proposed designation schedules in the January 2010 ozone NAAQS proposal

• Primary NAAQS: Proposed accelerated schedule– Final designations in less than 1 year vs. 2 years– States submit recommendations in 129 days vs. 1 year

• Seasonal secondary NAAQS: Took comment on 2 alternative schedules– Same accelerated schedule as for primary standard, or– Traditional 2-year schedule allowed under CAA; States

submit recommendations in 1 year.

3

Designations Assistance• Plan to offer early interaction/assistance to facilitate development of

states’ recommendations.

• Revised designations guidance with description of each factor and information that might be used to assess.– 5-factors: air quality data, emissions-related data, meteorology,

geography/topography, jurisdictional boundaries.– Guidance on qualifying for “rural transport area” classification.– Potential for partial counties in certain cases.

• Plan to share information addressing designation factors shortly after NAAQS are final.– Including ozone source apportionment modeling results which estimates

the combined impact of multiple factors (emissions, meteorology, geography).

– 5-factor TSD template

4

Boundary Decision Criteria• EPA’s goal is national consistency in decisions to ensure legally

defensible designations.– CAA Sec 107(d): NAA boundary must contain any area that violates the

NAAQS or that contributes to NAAQS violation in a nearby area.

• Suggest Census-defined CSA/CBSA is starting point for technical analysis; analysis could support smaller or larger area.

• Possible decision guides?:– Counties in CSA/CBSA that contribute at least ___ ppb ozone to any

violating monitor in the CSA/CBSA are “presumed in”?– NAA boundary to include sufficient area (e.g., counties or parts of

counties) to account for at least ___% of total ozone contribution from CSA/CBSA counties to violating monitor(s)?

– “Nearby” includes any area within CSA/CBSA? Beyond that considered to be long-range transport?

55

Classifications• Option 1 is consistent with the approach used for the 1997

standard.– Results in largest number of “Marginal” areas (and moderate areas).– Fewer mandatory controls; shorter attainment deadlines with higher

probability of “bump-up.”

• Option 2 specifies the Extreme threshold as either the actual DV of the area with the highest DV at the time we designate, or a value approximately mid-way betweqen the two highest DVs at the time we finalize the implementation rule.

– Results in more areas in higher classifications.– More mandatory controls, but with more time to attain w/o “bump-up.”

• Also considering proposing that where states submitted voluntary reclassification requests under the 1997 NAAQS we would treat those requests as applying to this standard unless the state says otherwise.

– Would avoid going through separate reclassification process.

420 counties violate 0.070 ppm

161 additional counties violate 0.065 ppm for a total of 581

74 additional counties violate 0.060 ppm for a total of 655

Counties With Monitors Violating Proposed Primary 8-hour Ground-level Ozone Standards0.060 - 0.070 parts per million

(Based on 2007 – 2009 Air Quality Data)EPA will not designate areas as nonattainment on these data, but likely on 2008 – 2010 data which are expected to show improved air quality.

> 0.060 ppm > 0.065 ppm > 0.070 ppm

Notes: 1. No monitored counties outside the continental U.S. violate. 2. EPA is proposing to determine compliance with a revised primary ozone standard by rounding the 3-year average to three decimal places.

83 counties violate 15 ppm-hours

424 additional counties violate 7 ppm-hours for a total of 507> 7 ppm-hours > 15 ppm-hours

> 7 ppm-hours > 15 ppm-hours

Counties With Monitors Violating Proposed Secondary Seasonal Ground-Level Ozone Standards7 – 15 parts per million - hours

(Based on 2007 – 2009 Air Quality Data)EPA will not designate areas as nonattainment on these data, but likely on 2008 – 2010 data which are expected to show improved air quality.

> 7 ppm-hours > 15 ppm-hoursNo monitored counties outside the continental U.S. violate.

8

Additional counties that would violate a W126 secondary standard compared to alternative primary standards

(based on 2007-2009 data)

7 ppm-hours

15 ppm-hours

21 ppm-hours

0.060 ppm 3 0 0

0.065 ppm 11 0 0

0.070 ppm 112 3 0

9

Possible Number of “Areas” (as defined below) Violating Alternative Primary Standards

(based on 2007-2009 data)

Number of Areas

(County is largest area)

Number of Areas

(CBSA is largest area)

Number of Areas

(CSA is largest area)

>0.060 ppm 655 413 349

>0.065 ppm 581 359 300

>0.070 ppm 420 241 196

Larger geographic area

10

Exploring Possible SIP Flexibility• Deadline alignment of multiple SIP obligations?

– e.g., emissions inventories, RACT, I/M, attainment demonstration

• Maximize use of Rural Transport classification– Marginal area requirements– Threshold for “self-contribution”? ___ ppb? ___% of design

value?

• NOx substitution in 15% VOC Plans?

• Alternative to photochemical grid modeling for Moderate areas?

• Attainment deadlines at the end of the calendar year 3, 6, 9, etc. years from designations?

11

Additional State Assistance• State Implementation Plan Status and Information Website:

http://www.epa.gov/air/urbanair/sipstatus/– SIP guidance materials database.– Menu of NOx/VOC regulatory control measures.– Local measures Web site: early implementation may result in suspension of

planning requirements and redesignation before some CAA requirements are due.

• Training materials (web modules, webinars, course materials).

• National/regional rules: Transport Rules 1 & 2, tailpipe standards?

• Possible national or presumptive RACT for selected source categories.– e.g., ICI boilers, cement kilns, glass manufacturing, oil & gas?

• Possible national attainment modeling– Use of EPA national/regional modeling to support attainment demonstrations for

moderate areas.

12

Southwest Arizona Oklahoma

New Mexico Texas

NonEGU Point, Not Top4 tpy tpy tpy

Sector2020 NOX # States

2020 SO2

2020 PM2.5

IC Engines, Industrial, NatGas 204,749 4 693 3,348Glass Manufacture 13,203 2 2,646 1,217IC Engines, Elec Gen., NatGas 8,439 4 114 1,146Aircraft 8,184 4 846 603Oil and Gas Production 7,577 3 16,839 185Misc Manufacturing 7,048 4 8,152 567Catalytic Cracking 5,527 4 12,870 2,642Lime Manufacture 5,098 4 6,573 940IC Engines, Comm./Ind. NatGas 4,587 4 12 95Black Carbon Production 3,333 2 22,368 563Chemical Manuf: Fuel Fired Equip 3,120 2 3,218 106Pulp and Paper 3,024 3 2,239 1,166Ammonia Production 2,790 2 11 113Industrial In-process Coal 1,965 2 2,260 60Coke Calcining 1,923 2 18,546 260

Nonpoint, Not Top4 tpy tpy tpy

Sector2020 NOX # States

2020 SO2

2020 PM2.5

Oil and Gas, All, On-shore 193,180 1 0 0Oil and Gas, All 90,233 3 362 0Oil and Gas, NatGas 36,564 3 1 0Ag burning 21,403 2 6,653 40,928Oil and Gas, NatGas On-shore 16,727 3 5 0Residential NatGas 15,937 4 100 103Residential LPG 1,935 4 25 12Residential: Open burning 1,914 4 293 15,373Oil and Gas, Off-shore 1,859 1 0 0Residential Wood 1,454 4 210 15,321Open burning: All categories 1,225 4 0 14,167Mining and Quarrying, Chem/Fertlizer Material1,190 1 0 0Elec util, Oil 922 1 84 0Industrial Processes, Misc 331 4 142 1,436Oil and Gas, Crude Petroleum 311 2 0 0

Southwest 2020

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

NOx Top4

NOx other

SO2Top4

SO2other

PM2.5Top4

PM2.5other

10

00

to

ns

/yr

EGU NonEGU Pt Nonpoint Nonroad Onroad

Southwest Nonroad

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2020 NOx 2020 SO2 2020 PM2.5

100

0 to

ns

/yr

C3 - no ECA Locomotive, C1 & C2 Marine NMIM nonroad

851

1,021

1,872

11%

% ofTotal NOx

10.3%

% ofTotal NOx

4.8%1.9%

~ Boilers & Cement

13

WestCalifornia Montana Utah

Colorado Nevada Washington

Idaho Oregon Wyoming

Nonpoint, Not Top4 tpy tpy tpy

Sector2020 NOX # States

2020 SO2

2020 PM2.5

Oil and Gas, NatGas On-shore 46,135 9 0 0Residential NatGas 40,114 11 267 373Oil and Gas, All 30,550 7 1,743 0Oil and Gas, NatGas 15,977 7 35 101Residential Wood 12,865 11 1,824 120,667Ag burning 4,184 6 172 30,780Industrial Mineral Processes 3,886 5 1,257 939Industrial, Food Products 3,346 3 251 2,075Residential LPG 3,232 11 74 11Open burning: All categories 3,113 10 517 13,000Residential: Open burning 2,685 8 448 13,053Elec Util., NatGas 2,418 2 159 9Residential Oil 2,360 10 5,617 286Oil and Gas, Crude Petroleum 2,250 6 22 86Fertilizer Application 2,099 10 0 0

West 2020

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

NOx Top4

NOx other

SO2Top4

SO2other

PM2.5Top4

PM2.5other

10

00

to

ns

/yr

EGU NonEGU Pt Nonpoint Nonroad Onroad

West Nonroad

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2020 NOx 2020 SO2 2020 PM2.5

10

00

to

ns

/yr

C3 - no ECA Locomotive, C1 & C2 Marine NMIM nonroad

1,042

1,299

2,340

% ofTotal NOx

2%

1.3%0.7%

NonEGU Point, Not Top4 tpy tpy tpy

Sector2020 NOX # States

2020 SO2

2020 PM2.5

IC Engines, Industrial, NatGas 86,787 11 1,204 1,641IC Engines, Elec Gen., Diesel 20,286 11 5,279 766IC Engines, Elec Gen., NatGas 14,322 9 307 676Aircraft 13,129 11 1,223 974Pulp and Paper 7,046 5 6,882 4,017Stationary Elec. Util. NatGas 6,086 2 50 148Aircraft 5,462 2 244 28Misc Manufacturing 4,787 11 3,871 4,239IC Engines, Industrial, Diesel 4,649 12 440 324Municipal Incineration 4,235 10 347 65IC Engines, Comm./Ind. NatGas 4,087 6 53 210Glass Manufacture 4,051 4 1,218 845Primary Metal, Misc. 4,026 6 54 1,050Petroleum, Fugitive 3,812 18 262 32Industrial In-process Coal 3,158 4 729 34

3.8%

% ofTotal NOx

0.9%0.6%

~ Boilers & Cement

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Proposed Transport Rule• Proposed rule does not directly regulate any western states.

• EPA estimates that implementation of the rulemaking, as proposed, would reduce annual nationwide emissions from EGUs by:– 4.7 million tons of SO2 in 2012, and 4.4 million tons in 2014.– 0.8 million tons of NOx in 2012, and 0.8 million tons in 2014.– Also, 0.1 million tons of NOx will be reduced in the 2012 and 2014

ozone seasons (these are included in estimate above).

• IPM modeling for 2012 and 2014 predicts some small increases in SO2 emissions in western states due to modeled use of higher-sulfur coal in a few instances.

• EPA intends to use TR1 “template” to assess 2010 ozone NAAQS.– Will include western United States in the analysis.– Work has begun on "linkage" modeling.

15

Proposed Transport Rule:States Required to Reduce Emissions

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EPA/OAQPS Air Quality Modeling for Western U.S.• We are continuing to develop the model infrastructure

needed to support air quality policy in the Western U.S.

• Plan to use this modeling to support upcoming Federal rules (e.g., Transport Rule 2, Tier-3 mobile).

• Preliminary model performance evaluation has shown relatively low errors and biases for regional ozone (see plot). However, we are always trying to improve. Current efforts include: updated emissions, better estimates of international transport, and improved meteorological inputs.

• We intend to be a collaborative partner in assisting Regional, State, and Local agencies in their modeling efforts.

• While the modeling process is iterative; we expect initial data sets to become available in early 2011. 16