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Overview & Outlook for the P/C Insurance Industry:
Focus on New York in the Aftermath of Hurricane Sandy
Independent Insurance Agents of Westchester CountyTarrytown, NYMarch 7, 2013
Download at www.iii.org/presentationsRobert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist
Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected] www.iii.org
2
Presentation Outline
Economic Outlook Exposure and premium growth depend critically on growth
trajectory for the economy
Catastrophe Loss Overview Hurricane Sandy guarantees that 2012 will become the 2nd or 3rd
costliest year in US history in terms of insured losses
Drilldown on NY Impacts
P/C Industry Performance: US & NY Overview & Outlook Underwriting
Pricing
Growth
Capacity
Investments
The Strength of the Economy Will Influence P/C Insurer
Growth Opportunities
3
Growth Will Expand Insurer Exposure Base Across Most Lines
3
4
US Real GDP Growth*
* Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators.Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 1/13; Insurance Information Institute.
2.7
%0
.5%
3.6
%3
.0%
1.7
%-1
.8%
1.3
%-3
.7%
-5.3
%-0
.3%
1.4
%5
.0%
2.3
%2
.2%
2.6
%2
.4%
0.1
%2
.5%
1.3
%4
.1%
2.0
%1
.3% 3
.1%
1.6
%2
.1%
2.5
%2
.7%
2.7
%2
.8%
2.9
%3
.0%
-0.1
%
-8.9%
4.1
%1
.1%
1.8
%2
.5% 3.6
%3
.1%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
2
00
0
2
00
1
2
00
2
2
00
3
2
00
4
2
00
5
2
00
6
07
:1Q
07
:2Q
07
:3Q
07
:4Q
08
:1Q
08
:2Q
08
:3Q
08
:4Q
09
:1Q
09
:2Q
09
:3Q
09
:4Q
10
:1Q
10
:2Q
10
:3Q
10
:4Q
11
:1Q
11
:2Q
11
:3Q
11
:4Q
12
:1Q
12
:2Q
12
:3Q
12
:4Q
13
:1Q
13
:2Q
13
:3Q
13
:4Q
14
:1Q
14
:2Q
14
:3Q
14
:4Q
Demand for Insurance Continues To Be Impacted by Sluggish Economic Conditions, but the Benefits of Even Slow Growth Will Compound and
Gradually Benefit the Economy Broadly
Real GDP Growth (%)
Recession began in Dec. 2007. Economic toll of credit crunch, housing slump, labor market contraction
was severe
The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982
drop of 6.8%
2013 is expected to see initially slow
growth, then gradually accelerate throughout the year and into 2014
The Fiscal Cliff Was Just the Beginning: Budget Battles for Years to Come?
*P/C Insurance Joint Industry Forum press release (www.iii.org/press_releases), January 15, 2013.Source: Fix the Debt Coalition, January 18, 2013; Insurance Information Institute 5
The “Fiscal Cliff” was just the beginning
There are 10+ “Fiscal Speed Bumps” over the next 5 years, setting up a potentially extended period of fiscal uncertainty
Creates long-term uncertainty around federal spending, tax policy, entitlements
Poll: 94% of P/C insurance executives think looming budget battlesIn Washington will hurt the economy.*
Federal Spending as a Share of State GDP: Vulnerability to Sequestration Varies
Sources: Pew Center on the States (2012) Impact of the Fiscal Cliff on the States; Wells Fargo; Insurance Information Institute. 6
NY has relatively little exposure to sequester cuts
7
Defense and Non-Defense Federal Spending as a Share of State GDP: Top 10 States*
14
.6
10
.5
9.8
9.8
9.8
8.0
7.0
5.9
5.3
5.2
10
.0
10
.0
10
.0
9.2
4.9
3.8
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
HI AK DC MD VA KY AL MO CT AZ DC MD VA NM ID WV TN AK MT SC
Sh
are
of
Sta
te G
DP
(%
)
Federal defense spending accounts for approximately 10%+ of
GDP in 5 states
*As of 2010.Sources: Pew Center on the States (2012) Impact of the Fiscal Cliff on the States; Wells Fargo Securities; Insurance Information Institute.
Defense Spending Non-Defense Spending
Federal non-defense spending accounts for 10%+ of GDP in 3 states
Sequestration Could Adversely Impact Commercial Insurance Exposures Directly at Defense Contractors and Indirectly in Impacted Communities
State-by-State Leading Indicatorsthrough 2013:Q1
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at http://www.philadelphiafed.org/index.cfm ;Insurance Information Institute. 8
5 Fastest Growing StatesSouth Carolina 6.97%Michigan 4.32%West Virginia 3.59%Idaho 3.14%Georgia 3.04%
5 Slowest Growing StatesWyoming -1.09%
Delaware -0.24%North Dakota -0.19%Vermont 0.09%Minnesota 0.18%
Near-term growth forecasts vary widely by state
74
.47
3.6
73
.67
2.2
73
.6 76
67
.86
8.9
68
.26
7.7 7
1.6 74
.57
4.2 77
.56
7.5 69
.8 74
.37
1.5
63
.75
5.7 5
9.5
60
.9 64
.16
9.9
75
.07
5.3
76
.27
6.4 79
.37
3.2
72
.3 74
.38
2.6
82
.77
4.5
73
.8 76
.8
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct
-11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2
Oct
-12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan
-13
Fe
b-1
3
Consumer Sentiment Survey (1966 = 100)
January 2010 through February 2013
Consumer confidence has been low for years amid high unemployment, falling home prices and other factors adversely impact
consumers, but improved substantially in late 2011 and in 2012
Source: University of Michigan; Insurance Information Institute
Optimism among consumers rose in February despite tax hike, federal budget concerns
9
10
16.9
16.5
16.1
13.2
10.4
11.6
12.7
14.4 15
.2 15.8
16.9
16.617
.117.5
17.8
17.4
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F
(Millions of Units)
Auto/Light Truck Sales, 1999-2014F
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (2/13); Insurance Information Institute.
Car/Light Truck Sales Will Continue to Recover from the 2009 Low Point, Bolstering the Auto Insurer Growth and the Manufacturing Sector.
New auto/light truck sales fell to the lowest level since the late 1960s. Forecast for 2013-14 is
still far below 1999-2007 average of 17 million units, but a robust
recovery is well underway.
Job growth and improved credit market conditions will boost auto sales in
2013 and beyond
11
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E 13F 14F$125
$135
$145
$155
$165
$175
$185
$195
% of registered cars under 3 years old Auto Ins Direct Pms$ Billions
Personal Auto Insurance Direct Written Premiums vs. Recently-Registered Cars
Sources: AIPSO Facts (various issues); SNL Financial; Conning Research & Consulting, Property-Casualty Forecast and Analysis, First Quarter 2012; Insurance Information Institute.
PP DWP, flat from 2004-2009, is rising again.Conning forecasts growth at 3.5% in 2013 and 4.0% in 2014.
Average age of registered cars rose as fewer new cars were bought (and
insured)
In 2004-07 no growth in
PP DWP despite
strong new car/truck
sales New car/truck sales grow to 14-15M/year
4%/yr growth forecast for PP
DWP from recovering
new car/truck sales
12
Monthly Change* in Auto Insurance Prices, 1991–2012*
*Percentage change from same month in prior year; through Dec. 2012; seasonally adjustedNote: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Cyclical peaks in PP Auto tend to occur
approximately every 10 years (early 1990s, early
2000s and likely the early 2010s)
“Hard” markets tend to occur
during recessionary
periods
Pricing peak occurred in 2010 at
5.1%, falling to 2.8% by Mar. 2012
The Dec. 2012 reading of 4.7% is
up from 3.6% a year earlier
14
(Millions of Units)
New Private Housing Starts, 1990-2014F
1.4
8
1.4
7 1.6
2
1.6
4
1.5
7
1.6
0 1.7
1 1.8
5 1.9
6 2.0
7
1.8
0
1.3
6
0.9
1
0.5
5
0.5
9
0.6
1 0.7
8
0.9
9
1.2
01.3
51.4
6
1.2
9
1.2
0
1.0
11.1
9
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (2/13); Insurance Information Institute.
Homeowners Insurers Are Starting to See Meaningful Exposure Growth for the First Time Since 2005. Commercial Insurers with Construction Risk
Exposure, Surety Also Benefit
New home starts plunged 72% from 2005-2009; A net
annual decline of 1.49 million units, lowest since records began
in 1959
Job growth, low inventories of existing homes, low mortgage
rates and demographics are stimulating new
home construction for the first time in years
15
Construction Employment,Jan. 2010—January 2013*
*Seasonally adjustedSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute.
5,58
15,
522
5,54
25,
554
5,52
75,
512
5,49
7 5,51
95,
499
5,50
15,
497
5,46
85,
435
5,47
85,
485
5,49
7 5,52
45,
530
5,54
75,
546 5,
583
5,57
65,
577 5,
612
5,62
95,
644
5,64
05,
636
5,61
55,
622
5,62
75,
630
5,63
35,
649 5,67
3 5,70
3 5,73
1
5,400
5,450
5,500
5,550
5,600
5,650
5,700
5,750
5,800
Jan-
10F
eb-1
0M
ar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0A
ug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
122/
30/2
Mar
-12
Apr
-12
May
-12
Jun-
12Ju
l-12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Construction employment growth accelerated in the second half of 2012. Stronger growth in this key
sector is possible in 2013.
(Thousands)
Construction for the new $4B
Tappan Zee Bridge will create
thousands of jobs
18
Value of Construction Put in Place, December 2012 vs. December 2011*
-5.6%
-17.3%
-5.3%
7.8%
15.0%
22.3%
1.2%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
TotalConstruction
Total PrivateConstruction
Residential--Private
Non-Residential--
Private
Total PublicConstruction
Residential-Public
Non-Residential--
Public
Overall Construction Activity is Up, But Growth Is Entirely in the Private Sector as State/Local Government Budget Woes Continue
Growth (%)
Private sector construction activity is up in both the residential and nonresidential segments
*seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.
Private: +15.0% Public: -5.6%
Public sector construction activity remains depressed
19
Value of Private Construction Put in Place, by Segment, Dec. 2012 vs. Dec. 2011*
6.6%
-3.1%
16.6%
-10.2%
10.4%
-4.5%
13.7%
-0.2%
-7.8%
15.0%
23.6%
7.6%
21.2%25.2%
-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%
To
tal
Pri
vate
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Res
iden
tial
To
tal
No
nre
sid
enti
al
Lo
dg
ing
Off
ice
Co
mm
erci
al
Hea
lth
Car
e
Ed
uca
tio
nal
Rel
igio
us
Am
use
men
t &
Rec
.
Tra
nsp
ort
atio
n
Co
mm
un
icat
ion
Po
wer
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
Private Construction Activity is Up in Most Segments, Including the Key Residential Construction Sector
Growth (%) Led by the Residential Construction, Lodging, Office, Transportation and Power industries, Private sector
construction activity is up across many segments after plunging during the “Great Recession”
*seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.
58
.35
7.1
60
.45
9.6
57
.85
5.3
55
.15
5.2
55
.3 56
.9 58
.25
8.5 6
0.8
61
.45
9.7
59
.75
4.2 55
.85
1.4 52
.55
2.5
51
.85
2.2 53
.1 54
.15
1.9 53
.35
4.1
52
.55
0.2
50
.55
0.7
51
.65
1.7
49
.95
0.2
53
.1
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct
-11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct
-12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan
-13
ISM Manufacturing Index(Values > 50 Indicate Expansion)
January 2010 through January 2013
The manufacturing sector expanded for 33 of the 37 months from Jan. 2010 through Jan. 2013. The question is whether this will continue.
Source: Institute for Supply Management at http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm; Insurance Information Institute.
Manufacturing activity expanded in 3 of the past 4 months, but only
slightly. The recent trend is basically flat.
21
25
Manufacturing Employment,Jan. 2010—January 2013*
11,4
6011
,460
11,4
6611
,497
11,5
3111
,539
11,5
5811
,548
11,5
5411
,555
11,5
7711
,590
11,6
2411
,662
11,6
8211
,707
11,7
1511
,724
11,7
4711
,760
11,7
6211
,770
11,7
6911
,797
11,8
4111
,870
11,9
1011
,920
11,9
2611
,935
11,9
5711
,943
11,9
2511
,931
11,9
3811
,946
11,9
50
11,000
11,200
11,400
11,600
11,800
12,000
12,200
12,400
Jan-
10F
eb-1
0M
ar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0A
ug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
122/
30/2
Mar
-12
Apr
-12
May
-12
Jun-
12Ju
l-12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Manufacturing employment is up by nearly 500,000 or 4.3% since Jan. 2010
—a surprising source of strength in the economy. Employment in the
sector is close to a multi-year high.
*Seasonally adjustedSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute.
(Thousands)
50
.7 52
.7 54
.15
4.6
54
.85
3.5
53
.75
2.8 53
.95
4.6 56 5
7.1 5
9.4
59
.75
6.3
54
.45
3.3
53
.45
3.8
52
.65
2.6
52
.65
2.6
53
.05
6.8
56
.15
5.0
53
.75
4.1
52
.75
2.9 54
.3 55
.25
4.8
54
.85
5.7
55
.2
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct
-11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct
-12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan
-13
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index(Values > 50 Indicate Expansion)
January 2010 through January 2013
Non-manufacturing industries have been expanding and adding jobs. The question is whether this will continue.
Source: Institute for Supply Management at http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/nonmfgrob.cfm; Insurance Information Institute.
Optimism among non-manufacturers is stable
and remains expansionary in 2013
26
27
43,6
9448
,125
69,3
0062
,436
64,0
04 71,2
77 81,2
3582
,446
63,8
5363
,235
64,8
5371
,549
70,6
4362
,304
52,3
7451
,959
53,5
4954
,027
44,3
6737
,884
35,4
7240
,099
38,5
4035
,037
34,3
1739
,201
19,6
95 28,3
2243
,546
60,8
3756
,282
47,8
0630
,620
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1112
:H1
Business Bankruptcy Filings,1980-2012:Q3
Sources: American Bankruptcy Institute at http://www.abiworld.org/AM/AMTemplate.cfm?Section=Home&TEMPLATE=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=61633; Insurance Information Institute
Significant Exposure Implications for All Commercial Lines as Business Bankruptcies Begin to Decline
2011 bankruptcies totaled 47,806, down 15.1% from 56,282 in 2010—the second consecutive year of decline. Business bankruptcies more
than tripled during the financial crisis. Through Q3:2012, filings were down 15.8% vs. Q3:2011
% Change Surrounding Recessions
1980-82 58.6%1980-87 88.7%1990-91 10.3%2000-01 13.0%2006-09 208.9%*
27
28
Private Sector Business Starts, 1993:Q2 – 2012:Q2*
175
186
174
180
186
192
188
187 18
918
6 190 19
419
119
9 204
202
195
196
196
206
206
201
192
198
206
206
203
211
205
212
200 20
520
420
419
720
320
920
1
192
192
193
201 20
420
221
0 212
209
216 22
0 223
220
220
210
221
212
204
218
209
207
207
199
191 19
317
2 176
169
184
175 17
918
820
018
3 187 19
119
719
319
1
203
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Business Starts Were Down Nearly 20% in the Recession, Holding Back Most Types of Commercial Insurance Exposure, But
Are Recovering Slowly* Data through Jun. 30, 2012 are the latest available as of Feb. 6, 2013; Seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t08.htm.
(Thousands)
Business starts were up 2.2% to 748,000 in 2011 vs. 2010. In 2012, starts are likely to be up by about
2.7% over 2011 levels.
Business Starts2006: 872,0002007: 843,0002008: 790,0002009: 697,000 2010: 742,000 2011: 748,000*
28
30
12 Industries for the Next 10 Years: Insurance Solutions Needed
Export-Oriented Industries
Health Sciences
Health Care
Energy (Traditional)
Alternative Energy
Petrochemical
Agriculture
Natural Resources
Technology (incl. Biotechnology)
Light Manufacturing
Insourced Manufacturing
Many industries are
poised for growth, though
insurers’ ability to
capitalize on these
industries varies widely
Shipping (Rail, Marine, Trucking)
45
Labor Market Trends
Massive Job Losses Sapped the Economy and Commercial/Personal
Lines Exposure, But Trend is Improving
45
46
Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Stubbornly High in 2012, But Falling
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan00
Jan01
Jan02
Jan03
Jan04
Jan05
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Traditional Unemployment Rate U-3
Unemployment + Underemployment Rate U-6
Unemployment stood at 7.9% in
Jan. 2013—lowest in 4 years.
Unemployment peaked at 10.1% in October 2009, highest monthly rate since 1983.
Peak rate in the last 30 years:
10.8% in November -
December 1982
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
U-6 went from 8.0% in March
2007 to 17.5% in October 2009; Stood at 14.4%
in Jan. 2013
January 2000 through Jan. 2013, Seasonally Adjusted (%)
Recession ended in
November 2001
Unemployment kept rising for
19 more months
Recession began in
December 2007
Stubbornly high unemployment and underemployment constrain overall economic growth, but the job market is now clearly improving
46
22
75
41
68
50
12
36
61
-79
24 6
8 74
51
2-1
14
-10
5-2
22
-21
9-2
03
-26
7-2
69
-42
9-4
84
-78
6 -70
1-8
21
-69
2-8
12
-82
1-2
88
-44
2-2
82 -2
22 -1
62
-23
3-3
4-1
67
-17
-26
17
01
02
94 10
31
29
11
3 18
81
54
11
48
02
43
22
3 30
31
83
17
72
06
12
92
56
17
41
97 24
9 32
32
65
20
81
20 15
27
81
77
13
11
18
21
7 25
62
02
16
6
11
1(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
400
Jan
-07
Fe
b-0
7M
ar-
07
Ap
r-0
7M
ay-
07
Jun
-07
Jul-
07
Au
g-0
7S
ep
-07
Oct
-07
No
v-0
7D
ec-
07
Jan
-08
Fe
b-0
8M
ar-
08
Ap
r-0
8M
ay-
08
Jun
-08
Jul-
08
Au
g-0
8S
ep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-0
8D
ec-
08
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9M
ar-
09
Ap
r-0
9M
ay-
09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9S
ep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-0
9D
ec-
09
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0M
ar-
10
Ap
r-1
0M
ay-
10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0S
ep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0D
ec-
10
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1M
ar-
11
Ap
r-1
1M
ay-
11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1S
ep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-1
1D
ec-
11
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2M
ar-
12
Ap
r-1
2M
ay-
12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2S
ep
-12
Oct
-12
No
v-1
2D
ec-
12
Jan
-13
Monthly Change in Private Employment
January 2008 through Jan. 2013 (Thousands)
Private Employers Added 6.07million Jobs Since Jan. 2010 After Having Shed 4.98 Million Jobs in 2009 and 3.80 Million in 2008 (State and Local Governments Have Shed Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm; Insurance Information Institute
Monthly Losses in Dec. 08–Mar. 09 Were
the Largest in the Post-WW II Period
166,000 private sector jobs were
created in January
47
Jobs Created2012: 2.247 Mill2011: 2.420 Mill2010: 1.235 Mill
52
Unemployment Rates by State, December 2012:Highest 25 States*
10
.2
10
.2
9.8
9.6
9.2
8.9
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.0
7.9
7.9
7.8
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.5
7.3
7.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
NV RI CA NJ NC MI IL CT GA MS DC OR SC IN NY KY FL AZ PA US CO TN WA WV ME AL
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
*Provisional figures for December 2012, seasonally adjusted.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
In December, 22 states reported over-the-month unemployment rate
decreases, 16 states and the District of Columbia had increases, and 12 states
had no change.
NY’s unemployment
rate is above the US average
53
7.1
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.4
6.1
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.4
3.7
3.2
0
2
4
6
8
AR DE MA MO OH AK ID MD WI NM TX MT NH LA MN VA KS HI UT OK VT IA WY SD NE ND
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(%)
Unemployment Rates by State, December 2012: Lowest 25 States*
*Provisional figures for December 2012, seasonally adjusted.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
In December, 22 states reported over-the-month unemployment rate
decreases, 16 states and the District of Columbia had increases, and 12 states
had no change.
54
Oil & Gas Extraction Employment,Jan. 2010—January 2013*
*Seasonally adjustedSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute.
156.
415
6.4
156.
715
7.6
158.
715
7.8
158.
015
9.5
160.
016
1.5
161.
216
1.2
163.
116
4.4
166.
6 169.
317
0.1
171.
017
2.5
173.
6 176.
317
8.2
178.
518
0.9
181.
918
3.1
184.
818
5.2
185.
718
6.8
187.
618
8.0
188.
018
8.2
190.
019
2.2
193.
7
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
Jan-
10F
eb-1
0M
ar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0A
ug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
122/
30/2
Mar
-12
Apr
-12
May
-12
Jun-
12Ju
l-12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Oil and gas extraction employment is up 23.4%
since Jan. 2010 as the energy sector booms.
Domestic energy production is essential to
any robust economic recovery in the US.
(Thousands)
55
US Unemployment Rate Forecast
4.5
%4
.5%
4.6
%4
.8%
4.9
% 5.4
% 6.1
%6
.9%
8.1
%9
.3%
9.6
% 10
.0%
9.7
%9
.6%
9.6
%
8.9
%9
.1%
9.1
%8
.7%
8.3
%8
.2%
8.0
%7
.8%
7.8
%7
.7%
7.6
%7
.5%
7.4
%7
.3%
7.1
%7
.0%
9.6
%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
07
:Q1
07
:Q2
07
:Q3
07
:Q4
08
:Q1
08
:Q2
08
:Q3
08
:Q4
09
:Q1
09
:Q2
09
:Q3
09
:Q4
10
:Q1
10
:Q2
10
:Q3
10
:Q4
11
:Q1
11
:Q2
11
:Q3
11
:Q4
12
:Q1
12
:Q2
12
:Q3
12
:Q4
13
:Q1
13
:Q2
13
:Q3
13
:Q4
14
:Q1
14
:Q2
14
:Q3
14
:Q4
Rising unemployment
eroded payrolls
and workers comp’s
exposure base.
Unemployment peaked at 10%
in late 2009.
* = actual; = forecastsSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (2/13 edition); Insurance Information Institute.
2007:Q1 to 2014:Q4F*
Unemployment forecasts have been revised slightly
downwards. Optimistic scenarios put the
unemployment as low as 6.5% by Q4 of next year.
Jobless figures have been revised
slightly downwards for 2013/14
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12*
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50Wage & Salary DisbursementsWC NPW
58
Payroll Base* WC NWP
Payroll vs. Workers Comp Net Written Premiums, 1990-2012E
*Private employment; Shaded areas indicate recessions. Payroll and WC premiums for 2012 is I.I.I. estimate based YTD 2012 actuals.Sources: NBER (recessions); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR ; NCCI; I.I.I.
Continued Payroll Growth and Rate Increases Suggest WC NWP Will Grow Again in 2012; +7.9% Growth in 2011 Was the First Gain Since 2005
7/90-3/91 3/01-11/0112/07-6/09
$Billions $Billions
WC premium volume dropped two years before
the recession began
WC net premiums written were down $14B or 29.3% to
$33.8B in 2010 after peaking at $47.8B
in 2005
+9% in 2012E
60
P/C Insurance Industry Financial Overview
Profit Recovery in 2012 After High CAT Losses; Ultimate
Impact of Sandy Still Unclear
60
P/C Net Income After Taxes1991–2012:Q3 ($ Millions)
$1
4,1
78
$5
,84
0
$1
9,3
16
$1
0,8
70
$2
0,5
98
$2
4,4
04 $
36
,81
9
$3
0,7
73
$2
1,8
65
$3
,04
6
$3
0,0
29
$6
2,4
96
$3
,04
3
$3
5,2
04
$1
9,1
50
$2
6,9
81
$2
8,6
72
-$6,970
$6
5,7
77
$4
4,1
55
$2
0,5
59
$3
8,5
01
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12:Q3
2005 ROE*= 9.6% 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.1% 2009 ROE = 5.0% 2010 ROE = 6.6% 2011 ROAS1 = 3.5% 2012:Q3 ROAS1 = 6.3%
P-C Industry 2012:Q3 profits were up 222% from 2011:Q3, due primarily to lower catastrophe losses
* ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 6.6% ROAS through 2012:Q3, 4.6% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009.Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute
A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What ItOnce Was: Investment Impact on ROEs
Combined Ratio / ROE
* 2008 -2012 figures are return on average surplus and exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2012:Q3 combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 100.9, ROAS = 6.3%; 2011 combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 108.2, ROAS = 3.5%. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data.
97.5
100.6 100.1 100.8
92.7
101.099.3
100.9 100.0
106.4
95.7
6.6%
4.6%
7.6%7.4%4.4%
9.6%
15.9%
14.3%
12.7% 10.9%
8.8%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1978 1979 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012:9M0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Combined Ratio ROE*
Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s DepressedInvestment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs
A combined ratio of about 100 generates an ROE of ~6.6% in 2012, ~7.5% ROE in 2009/10,
10% in 2005 and 16% in 1979
Year Ago
2011:Q3 = 108.1, 3.1% ROE
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
*1
2:
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2012:Q3*
*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011 figure is an estimate based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2012 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2012:Q3 ROAS = 6.2% including M&FG.Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.
1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%
1997:11.6%2006:12.7%
1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%
10 Years
10 Years9 Years
2011:4.6%*
History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017
ROE
1975: 2.4%
2012:Q3: 6.6%
66
18.3
14.7
14.6
14.3
14.2
13.5
12.3
12.2
12.2
11.7
11.6
11.1
11.0
10.8
10.7
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.8
9.8
9.7
9.5
02468
10121416182022
HI ME ID ND VT DC NH MN UT IA OH SD AK KS CT AZ NM OR RI CA WI VA CO IN WY NE
RN
W P
PA
*Latest available.Sources: NAIC.
Hawaii was the most profitable state for auto insurers from 2002-2011
Return on Net Worth: Pvt. Passenger Auto, 10-Year Average (2002-2011*)
Top 25 States(Percent)
67
9.1
8.9
8.7
8.5
8.4
8.4
8.3
8.3
8.1
7.9
7.7
7.5
7.5
7.3
7.1
6.9
6.9
6.5
6.1
5.5
5.5
5.2
3.9
3.7
3.5
-2.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
NY
WA IL
MO
SC
WV
AL
TX
MD
MT
U.S
.
AR
GA
PA
NJ
MA
OK
NC
TN
KY
MS
DE FL
NV
LA MI
RN
W A
uto
Return on Net Worth: Pvt. Passenger Auto, 10-Year Average (2002-2011*)
*Latest available.Sources: NAIC
Michigan was the least profitable state for auto insurers from
2002-2011
(Percent) Bottom 25 States
69
45
.7
21
.6
20
.3
19
.7
19
.5
19
.2
17
.9
16
.8
16
.4
15
.8
15
.7
15
.7
14
.9
14
.1
12
.7
12
.3
11
.7
11
.2
10
.7
10
.1
10
.1
10
.0
9.2
19
.0
18
.0
14
.00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
HI DC AK RI SC NV DE OR NY CA UT MA CT WA ME VT ID ND NM VA NH PA MI NC NJ AZ
RN
W H
O
*Latest available.Sources: NAIC.
Return on Net Worth: Homeowners Insurance, 10-Year Average (2002-2011*)
Hawaii was the most profitable state for home insurers from
2002-2011 due to the absence of hurricanes during this period
(Percent) Top 25 States
70
8.6
7.8
7.2
6.1
5.8
5.7
5.5
5.4
4.8
8.0
1.0
-4.5
-5.0
-5.6
-6.0
-7.4
-7.9 -8.3
-15
.1
-16
.1
-24
.0
-26
.3
-1.5
-0.1
0.1
4.5
-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015
MT MD CO WY WV SD WI NE U.S. IA IL TX KS FL IN OH MN MO AR KY OK GA AL TN LA MS
RN
W H
O
*Latest available.Sources: NAIC
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made Louisiana and Mississippi the least profitable states for home insurers
from 2002-2011
Bottom 25 States(Percent)
Return on Net Worth: Homeowners Insurance, 10-Year Average (2002-2011*)
71
Profitability and Growth in New York P/C Insurance
Markets
Analysis by Line and Nearby State Comparisons
72
RNW All Lines: NY vs. U.S., 2002-2011
Sources: NAIC.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
US All Lines NY All Lines
(Percent)
Average 2002-2011US: 7.7%NY: 5.9%
73
RNW PP Auto: NY vs. U.S., 2002-2011
Sources: NAIC.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
US PP Auto NY PP Auto
Average 2002-2011US: 7.7%NY: 9.1%
74
RNW Comm. Auto: NY vs. U.S.,2002-2011
Sources: NAIC.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
US Comm Auto NY Comm Auto
(Percent)
Average 2002-2011US: 9.8%NY: 8.4%
75
RNW Comm. Multi-Peril: NY vs. U.S.,2002-2011
Sources: NAIC.
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
US Comm M-P NY Comm M-P
(Percent)
Average 2002-2011US: 9.1%NY: 11.6%
76
RNW Homeowners: NY vs. U.S.,2002-2011
Sources: NAIC.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
US HO NY HO
(Percent)Average 2002-2011
US: 5.4%NY: 17.8%
NY profitability in 2012 will
take a nosedive
due to Sandy
77
RNW Workers Comp: NY vs. U.S.,2002-2011
Sources: NAIC.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
US WComp NY WComp
(Percent)
Average 2002-2011US: 6.7%NY: 5.0%
All Lines: 10-Year Average RNW NY & Nearby States
6.9%
7.7%
10.5%
10.7%
12.5%
5.9%
7.5%
0% 5% 10% 15%
Vermont
Massachusetts
Connecticut
U.S.
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
New York
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
2002-2011
New York All Lines profitability is below the US and regional
average
PP Auto: 10-Year Average RNW NY & Nearby States
7.1%
7.7%
9.1%
10.7%
14.2%
6.9%
7.3%
0% 5% 10% 15%
Vermont
Connecticut
New York
U.S.
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
2002-2011
New York PP Auto profitability is above the US average and below the regional
average
Comm. Auto: 10-Year Average RNW NY & Nearby States
8.4%
9.8%
13.8%
15.7%
18.5%
7.1%
9.0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Vermont
Massachusetts
Connecticut
U.S.
Pennsylvania
New York
New Jersey
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
2002-2011
New York Commercial Auto profitability is below the US and regional average
Comm. M-P: 10-Year Average RNW AL & Nearby States
9.6%
11.6%
12.6%
12.8%
17.3%
9.1%
10.4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Massachusetts
Vermont
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
U.S.
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
2002-2011
New York Commercial Multi-Peril profitability is
above the US average and below
the regional average
Homeowners: 10-Year Average RNW NY & Nearby States
10.0%
14.8%
15.7%
15.8%
17.8%
5.4%
10.7%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
New York
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Vermont
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
U.S.
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
2002-2011
New York Homeowners profitability is above the US and regional average (Sandy will cause figure
to drop)
Workers Comp: 10-Year Average RNW NY & Nearby States
4.9%
6.0%
6.3%
6.7%
7.4%
3.3%
5.0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Massachusets
U.S.
Pennsylvania
Vermont
New York
Connecticut
New Jersey
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
2002-2011
New York Workers Comp profitability is
below the US average and regional
average
86
All Lines DWP Growth: NY vs. U.S., 2002-2011
Source: SNL Financial.
14.5
%
9.9%
7.5%
2.3% 3.
4%
0.5%
-2.1
%
-3.3
%
0.0%
3.7%
16.9
%
7.8% 9.
0%
0.3%
4.0%
1.5%
-2.0
%
-3.6
%
0.0%
3.2%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
US DWP: All Lines NY DWP: All Lines
(Percent)
Average 2002-2011US: 3.6%NY: 3.7%
87
Comm. Lines DWP Growth: NY vs. U.S., 2002-2011
Source: SNL Financial.
19
.3%
11
.4%
9.6
%
2.6
%
4.9
%
-0.3
%
-3.8
%
-7.3
% -2.5
%
5.1
%
24
.0%
8.8
% 13
.5%
1.7
%
7.3
%
2.1
%
-3.8
%
-7.3
% -1.7
%
3.1
%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
US DWP: Comm. Lines NY DWP: Comm. Lines
(Percent)
Average 2002-2011US: 3.9%NY: 4.8%
88
Personal Lines DWP Growth: NY vs. U.S., 2002-2011
Source: SNL Financial.
11
.2%
9.3
%
5.2
%
2.3
%
2.3
%
1.2
%
-0.1
%
1.1
% 2.5
%
2.2
%
9.5
%
7.1
%
3.3
%
-1.5
%
-0.6
%
0.7
%
1.2
%
2.2
%
2.2
%
3.1
%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
US DWP: Personal Lines NY DWP: Personal Lines
(Percent)
Average 2002-2011US: 3.7%NY: 2.7%
Hurricane Sandy Summary
91
Sandy Will Become One of the Most Expensive Events in
Insurance History
91
93
Top 12 Most Costly Hurricanesin U.S. History
(Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions)
*Estimate as of 12/09/12 based on estimates of catastrophe modeling firms and reported losses as of 1/12/13. Estimates range up to $25B.Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments to 2012 dollars using the CPI.
$9.2 $11.1$13.4
$20.0
$25.6
$48.7
$8.7$7.8$6.7$5.6$5.6$4.4
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Irene(2011)
Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Hugo (1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Ike (2008)
Sandy*(2012)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
Hurricane Sandy could become the 3rd costliest
hurricane in US insurance history
Hurricane Irene became the 12th most expensive hurricane in US history in 2011
10 of the 12 most costly hurricanes in insurance history occurred over the past 9 years (2004—2012)
Hurricane Sandy: Claim Payments to Policyholders, by State
$9,600
$6,300
$700 $500 $410 $295 $292 $210 $103 $84 $57 $55 $37 $36 $13$58$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
NY NJ PA CT MD VA OH MA RI DE WV NC NH DC ME VT
Insurers Will Pay at Least $18.75 Billion to 1.52 Million Policyholders Across 15 States and DC in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy
94
At $9.6B and $6.6B, respectively, NY and NJ suffered, by far, the largest losses
from Hurricane Sandy
TOTAL = $18.75 BILLION($ Thousands)
Sources: Catastrophe loss data is for Catastrophe Serial No. 90 (Oct. 28 – 31, 2012) from PCS as of Jan. 18, 2013; Insurance Information Institute .
Auto, 250,500 ,
16%
Commercial, 202,500 ,
13%
Homeowner, 1,067,000 ,
71%
Hurricane Sandy resulted in an
estimated 1.52 million privately insured
claims resulting in an estimated $18.75 to
$25 billion in insured losses. Hurricane
Katrina produced 1.74 million claims and
$48.7B in losses (in 2012 $)
Hurricane Sandy: Number of Claims by Type*
*PCS claim count estimate s as of 1/18/13. Loss estimate represents PCS total ($18.75B) and upper end of range estimates by risk modelers RMS, Eqecat and AIR. All figures exclude losses paid by the NFIP.Source: PCS; AIR, Eqecat, AIR Worldwide; Insurance Information Institute. 95
Sandy is a high HO frequency, (relatively
low) severity event (avg. severity <50% Katrina)
Total Claims = 1.52 Million*
Auto, $2,729 , 15%
Commercial, $9,024 ,
48%
Homeowner, $6,997 ,
37%
Although Commercial Lines accounted for
only 13% of total claims, they account for 48% of all claim
dollars paid. In most hurricanes,
Commercial Lines accounts for about
1/3 of insured losses.
Hurricane Sandy: Insured Loss byClaim Type* ($ Millions)
*PCS insured loss estimates as of 1/18/13. Catastrophe modeler estimates range up to $25 billion. All figures exclude losses paid by the NFIP.Source: PCS; Insurance Information Institute. 96
Total Claim Value = $18.75 Billion*
New Jersey, $2,500 , 36% New York,
$2,700 , 38%
All Other, $1,797 , 26%
Hurricane Sandy: Value of Homeowners Claims Paid, by State* ($ Millions)
*Preliminary as of 1/18/13.Source: PCS. 97
Hurricane Sandy• Estimated
1,067,000 homeowners
claims**• $7.0 billion in insured losses.
• Average loss per claim is $6,558
• Claims in NJ estimated at $2.5 billion (36%) and $2.7 billion in NY
(38%)
New Jersey, 60,000 , 24%
All Other, 40,500 , 16%
New York, 150,000 ,
60%
Hurricane Sandy• Estimated 250,500
vehicle claims• $2.729 billion in
insured losses.• Average loss per
claim is $10,894• 60% of the claims
occurred in NY state.
Hurricane Sandy: Number of Auto Claims by State*
*Preliminary as of 1/18/13.Source: PCS. 98
New Jersey, $250 , 32%
All Other, $129 , 17%
New York, $400 , 51%
Hurricane Sandy• Estimated 250,500
vehicle claims• $2.729 billion in
insured losses.• Average loss per
claim is $10,894• About 50% of the
claim dollars will be paid in NY, 32%
in NJ.
Hurricane Sandy: Value of Auto Claims Paid, by State* ($ Millions)
*Preliminary as of 1/18/13.Source: PCS. 99
Hurricane Sandy: Loss Distribution by Commercial/Personal Lines and Reinsurance vs. Primary Insurer
*Fitch Ratings assigns a range of 60-65% commercial and 35-40% personal lines., Hurricane Sandy Update, January 8, 2013.**Source: Insurance Information Institute rough estimate based on company reports as of January 13, 2013. Actual number will vary. 100
Personal Lines40%
Commercial Lines60%
Primary70%
Reinsurance30%
Personal vs. Commercial Lines* Primary vs. Reinsurer Share**
~60-65% of Sandy losses appear to be commercial lines, and 35-
40% personal, the opposite of the norm for hurricane losses
Reinsurers’ share of Sandy losses appears to be in the 30% range, though this is highly preliminary
Hurricane Sandy: Average Claim Payment by Type of Claim
$6,558$10,894
$43,056 $44,563
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
Home* Vehicle NFIP Flood** Commercial
Commercial (Business) Claims Were Nearly Seven Times More Expensive than Homeowners Claims; Vehicle Claims Were Unusually Expensive
Due to Extensive Flooding
101
Commercial (i.e., business claims) are more expensive
because the value of property is often higher as well as the impact of insured business
interruption losses
*Includes rental and condo policies (excludes NFIP flood). **As of Feb. 20, 2013.Sources: Catastrophe loss data is for Catastrophe Serial No. 90 (Oct. 28 – 31, 2012) from PCS as of Jan. 18, 2013; Insurance Information Institute .
The average insured flood loss was 6.5 times larger than the average non-flood insured loss
(mostly wind)
102
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Loss Update
2012 Catastrophe Losses Were Close to “Average” Until Sandy Hit
2011 Was the 5th Most Expensive Year on Record
102
Nu
mb
er
Geophysical (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
Climatological (temperature extremes, drought, wildfire)
Meteorological (storm)
Hydrological (flood, mass movement)
Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 – 2012Number of Events (Annual Totals 1980 – 2012)
Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 105
41
19
121
3
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
There were 184 natural disaster events in the
US in 2012
U.S. Thunderstorm Loss Trends, 1980 – 2012
107Source: Property Claims Service, MR NatCatSERVICE
Average thunderstorm
losses are up 7 fold since the early
1980s. The 5- year running average
loss is up sharply.
Hurricanes get all the headlines, but thunderstorms are consistent
producers of large scale loss. 2008-2012 are the most expensive
years on record.
Thunderstorm losses in 2012 totaled $14.9 billion, the 2nd
highest on record
108
Top 16 Most Costly Disastersin U.S. History
(Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions)
$7.8 $8.7 $9.2 $11.1$13.4
$20.0$23.9 $24.6$25.6
$48.7
$7.5$7.1$6.7$5.6$5.6$4.4
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Irene (2011) Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Tornadoes/T-Storms
(2011)
Tornadoes/T-Storms
(2011)
Hugo (1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Ike (2008)
Sandy*(2012)
Northridge(1994)
9/11 Attack(2001)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
Hurricane Sandy could become the 4th or 5th costliest event in US
insurance history
Hurricane Irene became the 12th most expense hurricane
in US history in 2011
Includes Tuscaloosa, AL,
tornado
Includes Joplin, MO, tornado
12 of the 16 Most Expensive Events in US History Have
Occurred Over the Past Decade
*Estimate as of 12/09/12 based on estimates of catastrophe modeling firms and reported losses as of 1/12/13. Estimates range up to $25B.Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments to 2012 dollars using the CPI.
109
$1
2.6
$1
1.0
$3
.8
$1
4.3
$1
1.6
$6
.1
$3
4.7
$7
.6
$1
6.3
$3
3.7
$7
3.4
$1
0.5
$7
.5
$2
9.2
$1
1.5
$1
4.4
$3
3.1
$3
7.0
$1
4.0
$4
.8
$8
.0
$3
7.8
$8
.8
$2
6.4
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12*
US Insured Catastrophe Losses
*As of 1/2/13. Includes $20B gross loss estimate for Hurricane Sandy.Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
US CAT Losses in 2012 Will Likely Become the 2nd or 3rd Highest in US History on An Inflation-Adjusted
Basis (Pvt Insured). 2011 Losses Were the 5th Highest
2012 CAT losses were down nearly 50% from 2011 until Sandy struck in late October
Record Tornado Losses Caused
2011 CAT Losses to Surge
($ Billions, 2012 Dollars)
109
110
Flood Loss Paid by the National Flood Insurance Program, 1980-2012E
*Estimate as of 11/25/12.Sources: Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency, NFIP; Insurance Information Institute.
Billions (Original Values)
$0.23 $0.37 $0.17$1.30
$0.25
$17.74
$0.64 $0.61
$3.47
$0.78 $0.77$1.85
$7.50
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita accounted for the majority of
2005’s record $17.4B payout
Hurricane Ike
110
Hurricane Sandy and other events could result in $7.5
billion in payouts from the NFIP in 2012, second only to 2005
and potentially exhausting the NFIP’s borrowing authority
112
Top 16 Most Costly World Insurance Losses, 1970-2012*
(Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions)
*Figures do not include federally insured flood losses.**Estimate based on PCS value of $18.75B as of 1/18/13 and assumption of upward development based on catastrophe modeler estimates ranging as high as $25B.Sources: Swiss Re sigma 1/2011; Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute research.
$11.1$13.4 $13.4$13.4
$20.0$23.9 $24.6$25.6
$38.6
$48.7
$7.8 $8.1 $8.5 $8.7 $9.2 $9.6
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Hugo (1989)
WinterStormDaria(1991)
ChileQuake(2010)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
TyphoonMirielle(1991)
Wilma(2005)
ThailandFloods(2011)
NewZealandQuake(2011)
Ike (2008)
Sandy(2012)**
Northridge(1994)
WTC TerrorAttack(2001)
Andrew(1992)
JapanQuake,
Tsunami(2011)**
Katrina(2005)
5 of the top 14 most expensive
catastrophes in world history have occurred within the past 3 years
Hurricane Sandy could become the 6th costliest event
in global insurance history
2012 insured CAT Losses totaled $60B; Economic losses totaled $140B, according to Swiss Re
114
Inflation Adjusted U.S. Catastrophe Losses by Cause of Loss, 1990–20111
0.4%
1.6%
3.8%4.7%
6.3%
7.3%
33.9%
42.0%
1. Catastrophes are defined as events causing direct insured losses to property of $25 million or more in 2009 dollars.2. Excludes snow.3. Does not include NFIP flood losses4. Includes wildland fires5. Includes civil disorders, water damage, utility disruptions and non-property losses such as those covered by workers compensation.Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services Unit.
Hurricanes & Tropical Storms, $161.3
Fires (4), $6.0
Tornadoes (2), $130.2
Winter Storms, $28.2
Terrorism, $24.4
Geological Events, $18.2
Wind/Hail/Flood (3), $14.8
Other (5), $1.4
Wind losses are by far cause the most catastrophe losses,
even if hurricanes/TS are excluded.
Tornado share of CAT losses is
rising
Insured cat losses from 1992-2011
totaled $384.3B, an average of $19.2B per year or $1.6B
per month
Homeowners Insurance Catastrophe-Related Claim Frequency and Severity, 1997—2012*
*All policy forms combined, countrywide.Source: Insurance Research Council, Trends in Homeowners Insurance Claims, Sept. 2012 from ISO Fast Track data. 115
Avg. catastrophe claim cost rose
approximately 200% from 1997-2011
Cat claim frequency in 2011 was at historic highs and more than
double the rate in 1997
116
Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2012*
Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers.Source: ISO (1960-2011); A.M. Best (2012E) Insurance Information Institute.
0.4
1.2
0.4 0.
8 1.3
0.3 0.4 0.
71.
51.
00.
40.
4 0.7
1.8
1.1
0.6
1.4 2.
01.
3 2.0
0.5
0.5 0.7
3.0
1.2
2.1
8.8
2.3
5.9
3.3
2.8
1.0
3.6
2.9
1.6
5.4
1.6
3.3
3.3
8.1
2.7
1.6
5.0
2.6
3.4
8.7 9.
4
3.6
0.9
0.1
1.1
1.1
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
E
The Catastrophe Loss Component of Private Insurer Losses Has Increased Sharply in Recent Decades
Avg. CAT Loss Component of the Combined Ratio
by Decade
1960s: 1.04 1970s: 0.85 1980s: 1.31 1990s: 3.39 2000s: 3.52 2010s: 7.20*
Combined Ratio Points Catastrophe losses as a share of all losses reached
a record high in 2012
117
Federal Disaster Declarations Patterns:
1953-2012
117
Despite 11 Sandy Declarations, Fewer Disasters Were Declared in 2012 than the Record Number of
Declarations in 2010 and 2011
Number of Federal Disaster Declarations, 1953-2013*
13 1
7 18
16
16
7 71
21
22
22
0 25
25
11
11
19
29
17
17
48
46
46
38
30
22 2
54
22
31
52
42
13
42
7 28
23
11
31
38
45
32 3
63
27
54
46
55
04
54
5 49
56
69
48 5
26
37
55
98
19
94
73
43
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
*Through Jan. 31, 2013.Source: Federal Emergency Management Administration; http://www.fema.gov/disasters; Insurance Information Institute.
The Number of Federal Disaster Declarations Is Rising and Set New Records in 2010 and 2011. Hurricane Sandy Produced 13 Declarations in 2012/13.
The number of federal disaster declarations set a
new record in 2011, with 99, shattering 2010’s record 81
declarations.
There have been 2,084 federal disaster
declarations since 1953. The average
number of declarations per year is 35 from
1953-2011, though that few haven’t been
recorded since 1995.
47 federal disasters were declared in 2012
118
119
Federal Disasters Declarations by State, 1953 – 2013: Highest 25 States*
86
78
72
66
65
59
57
56
54
53
51
51
51
50
48
48
48
48
47
47
47
46
42
40
39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
TX CA OK NY FL LA AL KY AR MO IL TN MS WV IA MN KS PA NE VA OH WA ND NC IN
Dis
as
ter
De
cla
rati
on
s
Over the past 60 years, Texas has had the highest
number of Federal Disaster
Declarations
*Through Jan. 31, 2012. Includes Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia.Source: FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema; Insurance Information Institute.
NY has the 4th highest number of disaster
declarations since 1953
120
Federal Disasters Declarations by State, 1953 – 2012: Lowest 25 States*
39
39
38
36
36
35
34
30
28
28
26
26
25
24
24
24
23
22
18
17
17
15
15
13
11
10
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
ME SD AK GA WI NJ VT NH OR MA PR HI MI AZ MD NM ID MT CT NV CO DE SC DC UT RI WY
Dis
as
ter
De
cla
rati
on
s
Over the past 60 years, Wyoming and Rhode Island had the fewest
number of Federal Disaster Declarations
*Through Jan. 31, 2013. Includes Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia.Source: FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema; Insurance Information Institute.
The BIG Question:Where Is the Market Heading?
134
Catastrophes and Other Factors Are Pressuring Insurance Markets
134
New Factor: Record Low Interest Rates Are Contributing to
Underwriting and Pricing Pressures
135
Historical Criteria for a “Market Turn”:Low Interest Rates Add New Pressure
Criteria Status Comments
Sustained Period of
Large Underwriting
Losses
Large CAT Losses in 2011/12
Pushed Up Combineds
• CAT Losses contributing to higher underwriting losses• Apart from CAT losses, overall p/c underwriting losses
remain modest• Combined ratios (ex-CATs) still in low 100s (vs. 110+ at
onset of last hard market); CR= 101.1 in H1:2012 (ex-M&FG)
• Prior-year reserve releases continue to reduce u/w losses, boost ROEs, though more modestly
Material Decline in Surplus/ Capacity
Small Decline Due to 2011 Cats; Could drop in 2012
• Fell 1.6% in 2011 due to CATs• Surplus reached record as of 9/30/12 record $583.5B• Likely drop as of 12/31/12 due to Sandy impact• Modest growth in demand for insurance should begin to
absorb some capacity
Tight Reinsurance
MarketSomewhat in
Place
• Ample capacity• Market is generally flat except up for cat-impacted
accounts• Lower prices in Europe
Renewed Underwriting
& Pricing Discipline
Firming Broad, Sustained,esp. in Property, WC
• Commercial lines pricing is consistently and uniformly across all major lines, esp. Property & WC;
• Markets remain competitive in most segments Sources: Barclays Capital; Insurance Information Institute.
INVESTMENTS: THE NEW REALITY
136
Investment Performance is a Key Driver of Profitability
Depressed Yields Will Necessarily Influence Underwriting & Pricing
136
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain: 1994–2012F1
$35.4
$42.8$47.2
$52.3
$44.4
$36.0
$45.3$48.9
$59.4$55.7
$64.0
$31.7
$39.2
$53.4$56.2
$50.8
$58.0
$51.9$56.9
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05* 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F
Investment Gains Are Slipping in 2012 as Low Interest Rates Reduce Investment Income and Lower Realized Investment Gains; The Financial
Crisis Caused Investment Gains to Fall by 50% in 20081 Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses.* 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B; 2012F figure is III estimate based on annualized actual 9M:2012 result of
$38.089B.Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
($ Billions)
Investment gains in 2012 are running approximately 20% below their pre-crisis peak
140
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yields:A Long Downward Trend, 1990–2013*
*Monthly, through Jan. 2013. Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns.Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm. National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes.
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes have been essentially below 5% for a full decade.
Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 10-year or shorter durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come.
Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes recently
rose 48bp from its all time record lows to 1.91% in Jan. 2013
140
143
-1.8
%
-1.8
%
-2.0
%
-3.6
%
-3.3
%
-3.3
%
-3.7
%
-4.3
%
-5.2
%
-5.7
%
-7.3%
-1.9
%
-2.1
%
-3.1
%
-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%
Perso
nal L
ines
Pvt Pass
Aut
o
Pers P
rop
Comm
ercia
l
Comm
l Auto
Credit
Comm
Pro
p
Comm
Cas
Fidelity
/Sure
ty
Warra
nty
Surplu
s Line
s
Med
Mal
WC
Reinsu
rance
**
Lower Investment Earnings Place a Greater Burden on Underwriting and Pricing Discipline
*Based on 2008 Invested Assets and Earned Premiums**US domestic reinsurance onlySource: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
Reduction in Combined Ratio Necessary to Offset 1% Decline in Investment Yield to Maintain Constant ROE, by Line*
143
1. UNDERWRITING
144
Underwriting Losses in 2011 and 2012 Are Elevated by High
Catastrophe Losses
144
145
P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2012:Q3*
* Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008--2012. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.2; 2012:Q3=100.0. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO.
95.7
99.3100.8
106.4
100.0101.0
92.6
100.898.4
100.1
107.5
115.8
90
100
110
120
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012:Q3
Best Combined
Ratio Since 1949 (87.6)
As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out
Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned
Premiums
Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases
Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net
Losses
Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases
Avg. CAT Losses,
More Reserve Releases
Higher CAT
Losses, Shrinking Reserve
Releases, Toll of Soft
Market
Cyclical Deterioration
Lower CAT
Losses Before Sandy
Underwriting Gain (Loss)1975–2012:Q3*
* Includes mortgage and financial guaranty insurers in all years.Sources: A.M. Best, ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
Large Underwriting Losses Are NOT Sustainable in Current Investment Environment
-$55
-$45
-$35
-$25
-$15
-$5
$5
$15
$25
$35
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Cumulative underwriting deficit from 1975 through
2011 is $479B
($ Billions) Underwriting losses
through 2012:Q3
totaled $6.7B
High cat losses in 2011 led to the highest
underwriting loss since 2002
148
2
(2)
(8)
(3)
(7)(10) (10)
(4)
(0)
11
24
15
119
(5)
(9)
(14)
(10) (11)(7)
(5)(2)
-$20
-$15
-$10
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$309
2
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
E
12
F
13
F
Pri
or
Yr.
Re
se
rve
Re
lea
se
($
B)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8 Imp
ac
t on
Co
mb
ine
d R
atio
(Po
ints
)
Prior Yr. ReserveDevelopment ($B)
Impact onCombined Ratio(Points)
P/C Reserve Development, 1992–2013F
Reserve Releases Remained Strong in 2010 But Tapered Off in 2011. Releases Are Expected to
Further Diminish in 2012 and 2103Note: 2005 reserve development excludes a $6 billion loss portfolio transfer between American Re and Munich Re. Including this transaction, total prior year adverse development in 2005 was $7 billion. The data from 2000 and subsequent years excludes development from financial guaranty and mortgage insurance. Sources: Barclays Capital; A.M. Best.
Prior year reserve releases totaled $8.8
billion in the first half of 2010, up from
$7.1 billion in the first half of 2009
156
Performance by Segment
156
Private Passenger Auto Combined Ratio: 1993–2014F
10
1.7
10
1.3
10
1.3
10
1.0
10
9.5
10
7.9
10
4.2
98
.4
94
.3
95
.1
95
.5 98
.3 10
0.3
10
1.3
10
1.0
10
1.9
99
.6
98
.5 10
0.2
99
.5 10
1.1
10
3.5
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F 13F 14F
Private Passenger Auto Accounts for 34% of Industry Premiums and Remains the Profit Juggernaut of the P/C Insurance Industry
157Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2013F);Conning (2014F); Insurance Information Institute.
Homeowners Insurance Combined Ratio: 1990–2014F
11
3.0
11
7.7
15
8.4
11
3.6
10
1.0 10
9.4
10
8.2
11
1.4 1
21
.7
10
9.3
98
.2
94
.4 10
0.3
89
.0 95
.7
11
6.9
10
5.8
10
6.7
12
2.2
11
8.0
10
5.5
10
6.81
18
.4
11
2.7 12
1.7
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F13F14F
1
Homeowners Performance Deteriorated in 2011/12 Due to Large Cat Losses. Extreme Regional Variation Can Be
Expected Due to Local Catastrophe Loss Activity
Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2013F);Conning (2014F); Insurance Information Institute. 158
Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Sandy
Record tornado activity
109.4110.2
118.8
109.5
112.5
110.2
107.6
104.1
109.7 110.2
102.5
105.4
91.1
93.6
104.2
98.9
102.1
106.7
109.0
102.9102.0
111.1112.3
122.3
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
F
13
F
Co
mm
erc
ial L
ine
s C
om
bin
ed
Ra
tio
*2007-2013F figures exclude mortgage and financial guaranty segments.Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute
Commercial Lines Combined Ratio, 1990-2013F*
Commercial lines underwriting
performance in 2012 was the worst since 2002 due
to heavy impact from Sandy
161
Commercial Auto Combined Ratio: 1993–2014F
11
2.1
11
2.0
11
3.0
11
5.9
10
2.7
95
.2
92
.9
92
.1
92
.4 94
.3 96
.8 99
.4
98
.0
10
4.6
10
7.1
10
3.6
10
1.2
11
8.1
11
5.7
11
6.2
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F 13F 14F
Commercial Auto is Expected to Improve as Rate Gains Outpace Any Adverse Frequency and Severity Trends
162Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2013F);Conning (2014F); Insurance Information Institute.
General Liability Combined Ratio: 2005–2014F
112.
9
95.1 99
.0
94.2
100.
7
103.
3
103.
7107.
1 110.
8
99.6
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F 13F 14F
Commercial General Liability Underwriting Performance Has Been Volatile in Recent Years
Source: Conning Research and Consulting. 164
Workers Compensation Combined Ratio: 1994–2014F
102.
0
97.0 10
0.0
101.
0
112.
6
108.
6
105.
1
102.
7
98.5
103.
5
104.
5 110.
6 116.
8
116.
9
117.
3
115.
0
111.
0
121.
7
107.
0
115.
3
118.
2
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E 13F 14F
Workers Comp Results Should Begin to Improve in 2013. Underwriting Results Deteriorated Markedly from 2007-2012 and Were the Worst They Had Been in a Decade.
Sources: A.M. Best (1994-2013F); Insurance Information Institute (2014F). 169
Workers Comp Rate Changes,2008:Q4 – 2012:Q4
Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Information Institute.
-5.5%-4.6%
-4.0%-4.6%
-3.7%-3.9%
-5.4%
-3.7%-3.4%
-1.6%
2.6%
4.1%
7.5% 7.4%8.3% 8.1%
9.0%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3 09:Q4 10:Q1 10:Q2 10:Q3 10:Q4 11:Q1 11:Q2 11:Q3 11:Q4 12:Q1 12:Q2 12:Q3 12:Q4
WC rate changes have been positive for 7
consecutive quarters, longer than any other
commercial line
(Percent Change)
Note: CIAB data cited here are based on a survey. Rate changes earned by individual insurers can and do vary, potentially substantially.
2. SURPLUS/CAPITAL/CAPACITY
179
How Will Large Catastrophe Losses Impact Capacity?
179
181
Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2012:Q3
Sources: ISO, A.M .Best.
($ Billions)
$487.1$496.6
$512.8$521.8
$478.5
$455.6
$437.1
$463.0
$490.8
$511.5
$540.7$530.5
$544.8
$559.2 $559.1
$538.6
$550.3
$567.8
$583.5
$570.7$566.5
$505.0
$515.6$517.9
$420
$440
$460
$480
$500
$520
$540
$560
$580
06:Q4 07:Q1 07:Q2 07:Q3 07:Q4 08:Q1 08:Q2 08:Q3 08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3 09:Q4 10:Q1 10:Q2 10:Q3 10:Q4 11:Q1 11:Q2 11:Q3 11:Q4 12:Q1 12:Q2 12:Q3
2007:Q3Pre-Crisis Peak
Surplus as of 9/30/12 was up $12.8B or 2.2% from the
previous record high of $570.7B set as of 3/31/12.
*Includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business in early 2010.
The Industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.80
of NPW, close to the strongest claims-paying
status in its history.
Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses
The P/C Insurance Industry Both Entered and Emerged from the 2012 Hurricane
Season Very Strong Financially. There is No Insurance Industry “Fiscal Cliff”
182
3. REINSURANCE MARKET CONDITIONS
Record Global Catastrophes Activity is
Pressuring Pricing
182
184
Regional Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index, 1990—2013 (as of January 1)
Sources: Guy Carpenter; Insurance Information Institute.
Property-Cat reinsurance pricing was up in the US as
of 1/1/13 but was down in Europe/UK
4. RENEWED PRICING DISCIPLINE
185
Evidence of a Broad and Sustained Shift in Pricing
185
187
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Net Premium Growth: Annual Change, 1971—2012:Q3
(Percent)1975-78 1984-87 2000-03
Shaded areas denote “hard market” periodsSources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline
Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930-33.
2012:Q3 growth
was +4.2%
188
P/C Net Premiums Written: % Change, Quarter vs. Year-Prior Quarter
Sources: ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Sustained Growth in Written Premiums(vs. the same quarter, prior year) Will Continue into 2013
10.2
%15
.1%
16.8
%16
.7%
12.5
%10
.1%
9.7%
7.8%
7.2%
5.6%
2.9%
5.5%
-4.6
%-4
.1%
-5.8
%-1
.6%
10.3
%10
.2% 13
.4%
6.6%
-1.6
%2.
1%0.
0%-1
.9%
0.5%
-1.8
%-0
.7%
-4.4
%-3
.7%
-5.3
%-5
.2%
-1.4
%-1
.3%
1.3% 2.
3%1.
7% 3.5%
1.6%
4.1%
3.8%
3.1% 4.
2% 5.1%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2002
:Q1
2002
:Q2
2002
:Q3
2002
:Q4
2003
:Q1
2003
:Q2
2003
:Q3
2003
:Q4
2004
:Q1
2004
:Q2
2004
:Q3
2004
:Q4
2005
:Q1
2005
:Q2
2005
:Q3
2005
:Q4
2006
:Q1
2006
:Q2
2006
:Q3
2006
:Q4
2007
:Q1
2007
:Q2
2007
:Q3
2007
:Q4
2008
:Q1
2008
:Q2
2008
:Q3
2008
:Q4
2009
:Q1
2009
:Q2
2009
:Q3
2009
:Q4
2010
:Q1
2010
:Q2
2010
:Q3
2010
:Q4
2011
:Q1
2011
:Q2
2011
:Q3
2011
:Q4
2012
:Q1
2012
:Q2
2012
:Q3
Premium growth in Q3 2012 was up 5.1% over Q3 2011, the strongest growth since Q4 2006
190
Average Commercial Rate Change,All Lines, (1Q:2004–4Q:2012)
-3.2
%-5
.9%
-7.0
%-9
.4%
-9.7
%-8
.2%
-4.6
% -2.7
%-3
.0%
-5.3
%-9
.6%
-11
.3%
-11
.8%
-13
.3%
-12
.0%
-13
.5%
-12
.9%
-11
.0%
-6.4
%-5
.1%
-4.9
%-5
.8%
-5.6
%-5
.3%
-6.4
%-5
.2%
-5.4
% -2.9
%
2.7
% 4.4
%4
.3%
3.9
%5
.0%
-0.1
% 0.9
%
-0.1
%
-16%
-11%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
1Q
04
2Q
04
3Q
04
4Q
04
1Q
05
2Q
05
3Q
05
4Q
05
1Q
06
2Q
06
3Q
06
4Q
06
1Q
07
2Q
07
3Q
07
4Q
07
1Q
08
2Q
08
3Q
08
4Q
08
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
Note: CIAB data cited here are based on a survey. Rate changes earned by individual insurers can and do vary, potentially substantially.
Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute
KRW Effect
Pricing as of Q4:2012 was positive for the 6th consecutive
quarter. Gains are likely to continue through 2013.
(Percent)
Q2 2011 marked the last of 30th
consecutive quarter of price declines
191
Change in Commercial Rate Renewals, by Account Size: 1999:Q4 to 2012:Q4
Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Barclay’s Capital; Insurance Information Institute.
Note: CIAB data cited here are based on a survey. Rate changes earned by individual insurers can and do vary, potentially substantially.
Percentage Change (%)
Trough = 2007:Q3 -13.6%
KRW : No Lasting Impact
Pricing Turned Negative in Early
2004 and Remained that
way for 7 ½ years
Peak = 2001:Q4 +28.5%
Pricing turned positive in Q3:2011, the first increase in
nearly 8 years; Q4:2012 renewals were up 5.0%, the largest increase since late
2003; Some insurers posted stronger numbers.
195
Change in Commercial Rate Renewals, by Line: 2012:Q4
Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Insurance Information Institute.
Major Commercial Lines Renewed Uniformly Upward in Q4:2012 for the Sixth Consecutive Quarter; Property Lines & Workers Comp Leading the Way; Cat
Losses and Low Interest Rates Provide Momentum Going Forward
Percentage Change (%)
4.4% 4.4%4.9%
5.7%
9.0%
1.3%
3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4%
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
10.0%
Su
rety
Bu
sin
ess
Inte
rru
ptio
n
Ge
ne
ral
Lia
bili
ty
Co
mm
erc
ial
Au
to
Um
bre
lla
Co
mm
erc
ial
Au
to EP
L
Co
nst
ruct
ion
D&
O
Co
mm
erc
ial
Pro
pe
rty
Wo
rke
rsC
om
p
Workers Comp rate increases are large than any other line, followed
by Property lines
Note: CIAB data cited here are based on a survey. Rate changes earned by individual insurers can and do vary, potentially substantially.
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203