Overview of the IPCC WG2 AR4 assessment:Where it is and where it needs to go

Chris Field

Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecologycfield@globalecology.stanford.edu, www.global-ecology.org

Success of the IPCC

• Stakeholder buy-in• Reputation for credibility• Stakeholder buy-in

WG2: Impacts, Adaptation, & Vulnerability

• AR4 – Martin Parry & Osvaldo Canziani• TAR – Jim McCarthy & Osvaldo Canziani• SAR – Bob Watson & Marufu Zinyowera• FAR – W.J. McGTegart & Gordon

Sheldon

• AR5 - ?

WG2: AR4

• 6 sectors

• 8 Regions

• Water• Ecosystems• Food, Fiber & Forest Products• Coastal Systems• Industry Settlement, & Society• Human Health

• Africa• Asia• Australia & New Zealand• Europe• Latin America• North America• Polar Regions• Small Islands

IPCC process

Key elements

• Comprehensive assessment• Multiple layers of monitored review• Consensus approval by governments

WG2: Where it is

Lists ---

& family quarrels

IPCC: Where it needs to go

• Integration among working groups• Scenarios• Adaptation• Mechanisms in WG2• Specific, coordinated impact studies

AR 5 scenarios

Adaptation

• Move beyond anecdote– Analysis of many specific cases– Longitudinal analysis

• Explore in a unified framework with mitigation

Mechanisms in WG2

• NPP & carbon cycle• Wildfire• Crop & forest insect pests• Biodiversity• Agriculture & Land Use• Sea level rise• Storms & Other extreme events

Specific, coordinated impact studies

• Parallel to WG1• Major investment in impact models

– MIPs

• Coordinated agenda• Utilize model runs from the archive• Multi-model analyses