Overview of the EUCalc model - european-calculator.eu

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research & innovation

program under grant agreement No. 730459.

Overview of the EUCalc model

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 730459.

Garret KellyLuís CostaMichel CornetAna Rankovic



▪ Model live demo and introduction

▪ Model uses

▪ Illustrative messages

2 19/03/2019

Agenda

2 19/03/2019 Business Europe2 19/03/2019



The Consortium

Business Europe

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Germany

Imperial College of Science Technology and Medicine UK

Climact SA Belgium

Buildings Performance Institute Europe ASBL Belgium

Austrian Society for Environment and Technology Austria

University of Copenhagen Denmark

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology of Lausanne Switzerland

University of East Anglia UK

PANNON Pro Innovations Ltd Hungary

Climate Media Factory Gmbh Germany

T6 Ecosystems srl Italy

SEE Change Net Bosnia & Herzegovina

Delft University of Technology The Netherlands

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Source: Climact, E3G, (1) AGORA – Energiewende

The EUCalc mission isimproving the link between modelers and decision makers

Modelling toolsand teams

Policyand decision

makers

• Open and transparent model(does not mean easy to understand)

• Accessible approach enabling users to simulate and interpret scenarios for Europe and MS+CH

• Enhance the trust in energy modelling through a strong co-creation with academia, public and business sectors

• Allow for trade-off analysis: Make it clear what consequences each option would have

• Support the European 2050 Road Map towards low carbon economies

• H2020 research and inovation action (3 years)

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Stakeholder mapping

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Literaturereview

Conferences and events

Data collection and analysis

Partners networks

Advisory board

• >1000 experts informed

• 150 experts participated in workshops

• 1/3 academia, ¼ private sector, ¼ CSOs and professional associations, 1/5 Public institutions

• 2/3 M and 1/3 F

•Schools of thought



Source : Climact

Each model results from trade-off choicesE.g., Depth of insights vs accessibility (usage, assumptions, etc…)

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Levels of ambitionAn abstraction of the complex

LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4

Projections of historical

trends

More ambitious level 1 but

not reaching the full potential

of available solutions.

Very ambitious but realistic

given the current technology

evolutions and the best

practices observed in some

geographical areas.

Transformational and

requires some additional

breakthrough, important costs

reduction for some

technologies, very fast

deployment of infrastructures

and strong societal change.

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Levels of ambitionAn abstraction of the complex

LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4

• The demand of transport per

persons follows the same

temporal pattern as

observed between the years

of 1990 and 2014.

• No TRL <9

• An intermediate level in

which the observed trends in

level 1 are constrained.

• No TRL <9

• Travel to work is reduced by

25% for 25% of the

population

• Travel to access services is

reduced by 25% for 80% of

the population.

• No TRL <7

• Travel to work is reducted

by 25% for 50% of the

population

• Travel to access services is

reduced by 50% for 90% of

the population.

• No TRL <5

work

study

services

leisure & social

0.5

1

1.5

0

Ave

rage

tra

vel t

ime

(h/d

ay)

<25 years 45-65 >65 years

Travel time for leisure vs income

Ave

rage

tra

vel t

ime

(h/d

ay)

Year 2000

GDP/cap)

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Sector and thematic coverage

• Lifestyles• Transport • Buildings• Industry• Energy• Land/Agriculture/Forestry• Employment/Health• Climate/Biodiversity• Transbounbary

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tool.european-calculator.eu demo

Impact of lever On graphs

Key behaviours/Travel

Transport/Passenger energy demand per mode

Technology & fuels/Manufacturing• Material

efficiency• CCS

Industry/Steel/• Strong reduction• Small increase in

energy consumption

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http://www.european-calculator.eu/

tool.european-calculator.eu/


program under grant agreement No. 730459.11 19/03/201911 19/03/201911 19/03/2019

















While the EU Commission currently focuses on PRIMES and GEM-E3, it is busy with new modeling efforts that will shape the future decision making

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▪ Model uses


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Agenda

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Earlier generation of 2050 calculators had a large impact

Global Calc Europe (previous) India China UK Belgium

Organisations carrying the tool

• IEA, UK BEIS • ECF • Government (Planning commission)

• China Energy Research Institute

• UK Government (BEIS)

• 1 Federal and 4 regional administrations

Insights • Relative impact of food

• Link activities to industry

• Low carbon growth possibilities

• Net Zero • Energy independence possibilities

• Energy dependence is increasing in all scenarios

• Tidal energy is polluting the debate

• >20 000 pathways submitted

• Feasibility of -80% scenarios

• > 200 schools visited

Use by decision makers

• Use in EU LTS• NECPs

• Develop BAU INDC scenario

• Develop their draft National Energy Policy

• / • Support Climate Change Act 2010

• Support Carbon Plan 2011

• Inspire heat sector decarbonisation strategy & electricity market reform programme

• Carbon budget• -80% pathway• Support to 2020

NECP

>20 countries have developed national calculators, most often with a web front-end for experts or for schools

Not Exhaustive

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EUCalc is planning to support the following uses

Decision maker support

• Supporting to objectify the low carbon transition debate(implications of possible pathways)

• Supporting decision makerso MS and Europe (MEP, DGs of EC,

Council) to set and update the NECPs and LTS

o Business to set consistent strategies• Supporting EC to communicate on the

underlying assumptions of its scenarios

Dissemination

• Simplified interface for education and general public communication

• MOOC (Massive Open Online Course) for education

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▪ Model uses


23 19/03/2019

Agenda

Business Europe



This study is focused on the development of low carbon scenarios,and assesses their techno-economical implications

▪ The development of scenarios based on realistic and transparent assumptions

▪ An open and dynamic model, with an online version to increase reach and use

▪ The engagement of a wide group of experts on sector findings

▪ Emissions, Energy, resources, economic impacts, trade flows

▪ The identification of the key decision points, and of timing implications

▪ A good view on the cost implications. Direct costs (capex/opex/fuels) are covered

▪ Employment, health, biodiversity and water impact

▪ Scenarios are not projections, and the launch of the model will not include the choice of an ideal scenario

▪ Societal cost could not be covered

▪ Allocation of taxes and subsidies to certain actors

What itcovers

What it does NOT do

What it partially covers

▪ Macro-economic analysis and climate change co-benefits are partially covered

▪ Equilibrium models are being assessed for partial integration

▪ Optimisation engine

▪ This is the best pathway for Europe

▪ For our children, low carbon is 3% cheaper

▪ X jobs can be created in this scenario

▪ EU’s impact on Climate change brings x additional costs to society

▪ EU’s impact on energy costs

▪ If you change this technical or behavioral aspect, these are the consequences

▪ This is the maneuver space per aspect, and its implementation ambition

▪ This is the impact of delaying action

▪ In this scenario, Belgium imports beef, Europe imports steel and exports cars

▪ Eating more meat has this impact on land use

▪ Adding wind mills require to manufacture steel

Illustrative questions

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It is possible to reach net-zero GHG emissions for EU-28 by 2050

1. Several contrasted pathways lead to net zero, offering some policy alternatives leveraging both reduced emissions and carbon sinks

2. High ambition is required in all sectors whatever the chosen pathway– There are some unavoidable actions irrespective of the pathway– These transformations are ambitious but feasible– They require activating the GHG reduction potential of social, technical (and political?) innovation

3. Net-zero pathways don’t cost more than the reference scenario, and allow shifting financial flows back towards the EUThey also bring major co-benefits (although quantifying them is not part of the scope of this study)

4. Major action is needed before 2030 given the EU carbon budget to stick to WB2DS, – The more we wait, the more difficult (and costly?) it is to stick to WB2DS. It requires an early start to avoid requiring unachievable later efforts, i.e.

excessive pace of reduction or having to go too negative– The current EU ambition for 2030 is not compatible with net zero (or WB2DS) or relies on drastic increase of post-2030 efforts. Reaching more

ambitious 2030 targets requires ramping up collective action now to reach steady state implementation before 2030– Some drivers have intrinsically very long lead times: forests, power infrastructures, deep renovation…

5. This doesn’t require displacing GHG emissions out of the EU (industry, food, bioenergy)– The EU can decarbonize without exporting industrial activity and GHG emissions– Europe can continue being self-sufficient on food production while decreasing the consumption of meat from ruminants to free up areas that can be

used for afforestation or bioenergy

19/03/201925

Illustrative messages



▪ Backup

▪ Transparency demonstration

▪ Model scope and caracteristics

27 19/03/2019

Agenda

Business Europe


program under grant agreement No. 730459.28 19/03/2019

SOURCE: EUCalc yEd diagram

General model overview

Business Europe



KNIME: General model overview

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KNIME: Zoom 1: TransportInside the calculation tree, modules typically implement a similar logic for historical and future time series, then aggregate the results




KNIME: Zoom 2: Historical TransportEach module is free (for now :) to structure their model, in the example of transport, by mode first




KNIME: Zoom 3: motorbike section of historical-transportCalculation trees can be built using Knime nodes or with Python code, depending on personal preference




▪ Backup

▪ Transparency demonstration

▪ Model scope and caracteristics

34 19/03/2019

Agenda

Business Europe



SOURCE: Kick-off presentation

Desired model ambitionThe consortium has defined desired model characteristics

Answers questions in real time

• The Pathway Explorer provides end-users with a real time experience

Covers a wide array of topic

• Cfr figure to the right

Is granular enough to provide specific answers

• Geographic granularity : Europe as a whole, each member state separately,imports and exports

• Dimensions : cfr figure to the right

Goes deep enough to provide added value

• Addresses key questions regarding the energy transition.• Aims to provide as much analysis depth as possible within the given constrains.• Provides enough analysis depth to be considered credible by stakeholders.

Is collaboratively build • Built in parallel by the 10 organisations of the consortium• Does not require the organisations to have high coding skills

Is transparent enough to enhance stakeholder buy in

Transparency is declined through:• The stakeholder participative approach to develop the calculation rationale• The rationale of the calculation applied on the input data;• The input data used in the model;• The ease of use by the end-user of the tools used;• (The open-source access of the tools)

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• Activities & indicators,• Products & materials,• Resources (incl. land use water),• Energy,• GHG emissions,• Socio- economics,• Transboundary effects,• Pollution & health,• Energy poverty,• Biodiversity, • Food & materials self-sufficiency, • Equity measure• (~Policies)



Value added

Transport

Model core

Energy requirements by sector (WP2 and 3)

Climate & Technological Transitions (WP1)

BuildingsResidential Commercial

Heating technologies

Appliance efficiencies

Passenger Commercial

Transport Technologies

ManufacturingProduct Design

Materials production

Materials (WP3)Minerals (location based)

Fossil fuel reserves

Demand activity input

Energy supply (WP5)

Diet

Travel demand, mode & occupancy

Building sizes, inside temperature

Appliance use, product demand

Storage requirements(specific time granularity)

Technologies

Electricity production

Heat production

Transport & Distribution

Storage

Impact on resources

Demography

Impact of Climate(Yields, Outside temperatures)

Dynamics with rest of world

Land (WP4)

Jobs Social impact

Social & Economic impact (WP6)

Financial flows based on all the above

Trans-boundary effects,Trade, & Flows

(WP7)

Within MS

Outside EU

Food

Energy

GHG

Materials & resources

Economic impact

Food

Energy

GHG

Materials & resources

Economic impact

Economy evolution

Carbon price

Elasticity of lifestyle to GDP

Foodproduction

(WP4)

Livestock

Crops

Water (WP4)Land allocation

Biodiversity impact

Forestry

Biomass

Lifestyle EU & rest of wordEconomy

Scarcity(time and basin based)

Direct, Indirect, Induced Direct, Indirect, Induced Direct, Indirect, Induced

Legend

Global calc module

Additional modules

Energy & Resources

EUCalc scope

HAND OUT

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Documents

Overview of the EUCalc model - european-calculator.eu