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Presentation Overview
• DW Goal• Residential policy• Small wind market information• Summary of AWEA Global Market Report• Market diffusion theory and real application• Summary of recent Distributed Wind
Application Report
DOE/NREL DW Overview
• Goal: By 2015, the market for distributed wind technologies will be expanded five-fold from a 2007 baseline. – This five-fold increase will be accomplished through the removal of
technology, market, and implementation barriers for small wind technologies.
– Assumes 22% per year compounding• AWEA data shows market growth at 14 – 25%
• Technology Viability – 2 rounds of Small Wind Independent Testing– Considering Mid-size turbine development – likely to be through 2013
• Technology Acceptance - WPA– Small wind market and outreach to stakeholders – increase DW
deployment– Initiate new demonstrations of small wind – expand market
Federal Incentives: Mainstay Energy – green tag purchase (CA excluded); USDA Federal Farm Bill Title 9006 – grant for rural areas May 10, 2007
Future state incentive in development – IN, CO, OR, CT, LIPA
Residential Small Wind Incentiveswww.dsireusa.org
Property Tax Incentives
Buydown/Grants & Net MeteringBuydown/Grants, Net Metering, & Loans
Productivity Incentives & Loans
Productivity Incentives
Net Metering & LoansNet Metering, Loans & Prod. Incentives
Net Metering & Prod. Incentives Net Metering
BUYDOWNS/GRANTS PRODUCTIVITY INCENTIVES MINOR INCENTIVES
$
$
$
$
$
$ $
$
$
$ Income Tax Credits
$
$
$
$
Loans
RPS Puerto Rico
$
$
Buydown/Grants
NREL market info
• Consumers tend to live in their homes on an average of 7 years – need to meet that payback
• Increasing energy (gasoline, home heating oil, natural gas) costs motivate consumers
• Some consumers don’t care about cost want independence from the utility grid
• Takes several years for consumers to make a purchase decision
AWEA Small Wind Turbine Global Market Study 2007
• 2400 SWT sold as of 12/31/06– 1476 by US manufacturers for US market– 909 by US manufacturers for non-US market– 15 by non-US manufacturers for US market
• Leading market – CA, NY, VT, MA, PA, OH, TX, ME & AZ– 51% rural or suburban homes– 19% farms– 10% small businesses– 10% schools or public facilities
• Priority states and activities – CA (zoning), NY (zoning), CO, MA (zoning), KS (net metering & rebates), MN (rebates, zoning), MI (rebates), ND (rebates), PA (rebates, zoning)
Diffusion of Innovation Theory
• Innovation attributes – that increase the rate of adoption*– Relative advantage – “the degree to which an innovation is perceived as being better
than the idea it supersedes”– Compatability – the degree to which an innovation is perceived as consistent with
existing sociocultural values and beliefs– Complexity – “the degree to which an innovation is perceived as relatively difficult to
understand and use– Trialability – “the degree to which an innovations may be experimented with on a
limited basis”– Observability – “the degree to which an innovation are visible to others”
• Perceived risk – impede adoption• Other issues
– Financial wherewithal to purchase or finance– Availability of support system– Must have importance in the view of the purchaser– Must be easily understood by purchaser– Product must be available through regular supply channels
*Rogers, Everett M. 1995 Diffusion of Innovations, Fourth Edition, New York: The Free Press
Rural Residential Market Most installed in San Bernadino County
116 turbines installed to date (since 2000), good incentives, high electricity rates (43 cents/kWh Tier 3), suburban residents
Turbine 1Turbine 2 Turbine 3
Turbine 4
SWT Installations (2001 - 2007)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Year
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts (A
nnua
lly)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts
(Cum
ulat
ive)
Annual Installations Cumulative Installations
Service Interruptions – Rolling Blackouts
Incentive Increased
Incentive Decreased
Guasti Installations
* As of 3/07
Market Assessment SummaryMarket Segments
Small-Scale Remote Power
Residential Power
Farm/Business/Ind Power
Wind/Diesel Power
“Small-Scale” Community Power
DOE Size Categories
US Commercial Products
300W
1 kW
5 kW
10 k
W
20 k
W
50 k
W
65 k
W
100
kW
200
kW
300
kW
400
kW
500
kW
600
kW
700
kW +
Non-US Commercial Products*
* - Currently sold in the US
Net Billing, on-siteIrrigation, Industrial
USInternational
Advanced Small Wind Turbine Advanced Distributed Wind Turbine
Prototype
RefurbishedCommercial
5/17/07
In addition to a very strong international market
Preliminary Domestic Market Assessment
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts Wind/Diesel
"Small-Scale"CommunityFarm/Industrial/Bus
Residential
Off-grid
Potential DWT Market Applications Studies - # of units
Potential DWT Market Applications Studies – MWs
Potential US MW Installed Capacity
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500
2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
MW
Cap
acity
"Small-scale"CommunityWind/Diesel
Farm/Industrial
Residential
Off-grid
