View
218
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County
By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community CollegeMay 24, 2011
www2.aacc.edu/csli
Overview of Survey Process
•CSLI – Part of Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service at Anne Arundel Community College
•Operating since 1978
•Mission: Provide students opportunities for engaged learning, community outreach
• Main activity – public interest surveys
oRespondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer generated numbers
oTypical sample size: 400-900 respondents; students used as interviewers
o Topics – wide ranging, economy, transportation, land use/growth, taxes/spending, schools…
• Last survey – March 7-10, 2011 – focus of this presentation• 537 completed surveys• Press releases available online.
• since 1978 www2.aacc.edu/csli
Polling Results for AA CountyRemarkable stability in right/wrong direction…
Sp '99
Fa '99
Sp '00
Fa '00
Sp '01
Fa '01
Sp '02
Fa '02
Sp '03
Fa '03
Sp '04
Fa '04
Sp '05
Fa '05
Sp '06
Fa '06
Sp '07
Fa '07
Sp '08
Fa '08
Sp '09
Fa '09
Sp '10
Fa '10
Sp '11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
5754
5855
62
66
60 61 62
51
58 58
53
5755
51 52 51 5052
47
52 5249 50
23
2725 24 23
15
26
21
25
3431
24
2927 26
2927
33 32 3128 27 28 28 28
20 1917
20
15
19
14
18
1315
12
19 1816
1820 21
16 17 17
25
21 2023 22
RightWrongUnsure
Fall
'04
Spri
ng '05
Fall
'05
Spri
ng '06
Fall
'06
Spri
ng '07
Fall
'07
Spri
ng '08
Fall
'08
Spri
ng
'09
Fall
'09
Spri
ng '10
Fall
'10
Sp '11
Mean
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
8 7 7
15
712
8
23
38
48
3336 36 36
22.4285714285714
14
18
22
16
21
16 16
129
5 5 52
4
11.785714285714311.21428571428578.64285714285713
Economy /Housing Taxes – too high
Growth /development Education /
Traffic congestion /problems Crime / drugs
AA County Polling Results: Most Important Problem - Fall '04 to Spring '11
Economy – top concern with no recent changes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4648
44 45
49
2730 31 32
35
5
11 11 11 11
Maryland improves by 8%
Anne Arundel County
USA
AA County Polling Results: Rate the Economy
Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” also stable since March 2009
2009 2009 20092010 2010 20102011 20112011
AA County compared to USA – County looks around 35% better
S'02
F '02
S '03
F '03
S '04
F '04
S '05
F '05
S '06
F '06
S '07
F '07
S '08
F '08
S '09
F '09
S '10
F '10
S '11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
38
26 2722
34 3431 28
3842
32
27
17
5 510 11 11 13
7476
56 56
62
74 74 71 7471 71
69
55
49 46 4844 45
49
CSLI – Anne Arundel County
Gallup – National Polling for USA
Facing
the
poss
ibili
ty o
f une
mpl
oym
ent
Sign
ifica
nt lo
sses
in y
our s
tock
or r
etire
men
t acc
ount
s
Facing
the
poss
ibili
ty o
f hou
se fo
reclo
sure
or l
oss
Delay
in m
akin
g a
maj
or p
urch
ase
such
as a
hom
e or
car
Health
car
e in
sura
nce
is un
avai
labl
e, to
o ex
pens
ive
or in
adeq
uate
01020304050607080
116
35
15
71
4
3024
75
6
51
2924
70
8
46
33
19
56
7
47
3221
60
7
4434
20
52
9
4735
Economic Conditions - % saying 'applies' - specific items
S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11
AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’
Little change except for fewer losses in stocks/retirement accounts
The economy: what else applies?
Unabl
e to
find
affor
dabl
e ho
usin
g
Wag
es o
r sal
arie
s ar
e no
t risi
ng a
s fa
st a
s the
cost
of l
ivin
g
Hard
to a
fford
the
cost
of t
rans
porta
tion
Hard
to a
fford
the
cost
of u
tiliti
es su
ch a
s el
ectrici
ty o
r gas
Taxes
are
too
high
in re
latio
n to
gov
ernm
ent s
ervice
s pro
vide
d0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
21
56
40
61
11
59
32
50
58
12
55
21
5359
13
55
17
42
59
15
56
21
44
63
10
56
24
43
60
14
63
4146
63
S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11
Big jump in transportation costs
Condition Fall2005
Spring2011
Balancing the county budget (less spending, more revenues)
0 18
Providing enough jobs 8 16Providing enough skills/training or otherwise improving education/schools
11 12
Managing growth/development 27 8Having enough infrastructure, roads, transportation 3 7All other answers 51 39Total 100 100
Biggest Economic Challenge Facing the County – Items Mentioned in 2005 and 2011
Budget and jobs rise in importance
Perceptions of Decreases in Government Services
Answer Percentage
Yes 26No 70
Don’t know, no answer
5
Total 101
Services mentioned Cases PercentageRoads 39 24
Schools/teachers 31 19
Library 24 15
College tuition 12 7
Fire 10 6
Seniors services 10 6Jobs/furloughs/pay cuts
106
Police 9 6
Staffing 7 4
Child services 6 4
MVA 3 2
Mental health 2 1
Total 163 100
Most don’t see an impact from govt. belt-tightening
11
Issue Support Oppose Unsure
Imposing an additional fine of up to $1500 on drivers caught drunk driving 86 13 1
Permitting the use of off-shore wind power near Ocean City 80 10 10
Increasing the alcohol tax 68 29 3
Permitting the purchase of marijuana for medical purposes 65 29 7Taking away drivers’ licenses from those who refuse to pay taxes 64 32 3
Increasing the use of cameras to ticket those running red lights 59 41 4
Making same sex marriages legal in Maryland 47 46 7Making preparations to implement President Obama’s health care reform law 43 50 8
Limiting the use of binding arbitration when the county negotiates with public safety unions 35 42 23
Allowing the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition for college 33 63 4
Increasing university tuition to maintain the quality of higher education 32 66 2
Reducing the pension and retiree health benefits of state workers 28 65 7
Promising state workers no furlough days, and providing them with a $750 bonus 25 59 16
Increasing the county income tax to the maximum allowed by law to avoid cuts in essential services 25 68 7
Increasing the gasoline tax to bolster the transportation trust fund 17 80 3
State and County Issues
SupportSocial Category %Party p=.01Democrat 57Unaffiliated 48Republican 35Ideology p=.01Liberal 81Moderate 53Conservative 22Religion p=.01None/Non-practicing 75Jewish 71Spiritual but not part of organized religion
64
Other 46Catholic 43Protestant 40Some other Christian 38Evangelical 30Marital Status p=01.Single 66Married 45Gender p=.3Female 51Male 44
Age p=.0718-30 5331-40 5141-50 5151-60 5361+ 37Race p=.3Black 30White 49Other (including Hispanic, Asian and unspecified ‘other’)
50
Demographics/Same Sex Marriage% saying “Support”
Yes No Unsure/N.A.
Total
President Obama’s state of the union speech? 72 28 1 101
Governor O’Malley’s inaugural speech or his state of the state speech
41 58 1 100
Watched County Council hearings being broadcast on local cable stations anytime over the last year?
19 80 1 100
Watched, listened or read about…
Estimates %Under $1 billion 4$1 billion to $500 billion
17
$501 to $999 billion 4$1-1.999 trillion 21$2-2.99 trillion 10$3-4.99 trillion 22$5-6 trillion 6Over $6 trillion 17Total 101
Estimations of Federal Budget
51% estimated
Estimates %
Under $1 billion 30$1-5.99 billion 26$6 to $10.99 billion
7
$11-15.99 billion 4$16-20.99 billion 5$21-30.99 billion 3$31-40 billion 1Over $40 billion 24Total 100
Estimates %
Under $5 million 22$5-50 million 18$51 to $100 million
10
$101-350 million 8$351-650 million 9$651-999 million 7$1-1.99 billion 14$2-2.99 billion 3$4-6.99 billion 4Over $7 billion 6Total 100
Estimations of County Budget31% estimated
Estimations of State Budget31% estimated
Fall '06
Spring '07
Fall '07
Spring '08
Fall '08
Spring '09
Fall '09
Spring '10
Fall '10
Spring '11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3934 35
2824
5347 47
4247
3733 32 30
25
6154
4743
47
CSLI Gallup
Presidential Job Approval: Recent Rise…