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Overview of Energy Life Cycle Analysis at NETLTim Skone, Joe Marriott, James LittlefieldLCA XVI, Charleston, SC
September 27, 2016
2
• Journal Publications (inc. Pending)• Boundary selection in NG systems• Coal exports from the U.S.• Petroleum baseline update• Methane emission synthesis• Low-carbon fuels from EOR
• Major Reports & Tools• Update to Natural Gas LCA• Baseline Power Updates• Solid-oxide fuel-cell Power LCA• Update to Grid Mix Explorer & Upstream Dashboard
• Ongoing Work• Support for EPA GHGI of NG Systems• Support for Federal LCA Commons• Support for DOE Loan Program Office
• Emerging Work• Development of an Electricity Baseline for the U.S.• Implementation of Consequential LCA for Energy Systems• Development of Social LCIA Metrics & MCDM frameworks• Creation of Power System Construction Inventories
2016 LCA Work
Work can be accessed at:www.netl.doe.gov/lca
3
• Emphasizes the importance of boundary selection when expressing CH₄ emission rates and comparing NG to other energy sources
• Includes use of technology warming potential as a method for comparing cumulative radiative forcing
Using Common Boundaries to Assess CH₄ Emissions: a Life Cycle Evaluation of Natural Gas & Coal Power SystemsJames Littlefield, Joe Marriott, Greg Schivley, Tim Skone
LossExtraction — Processing — Transmission — Distribution Rate
Cradle-to-Extraction 4.7 1,086 0.5% 0.43%
Cradle-to-Processing 4.7 + 2.6 1,020 6.6% 0.71%
Cradle-to-Transmission 4.7 + 2.6 + 5.2 1,005 7.9% 1.24%
Cradle-to-Distribution 4.7 + 2.6 + 5.2 + 4.5 1,000 8.4% 1.70%
Processing Only (GtG) 2.6 1,020 6.1% 0.25%
Transmission Only (GtG) 5.2 1,005 1.5% 0.52%
Distribution Only (GtG) 4.5 1,000 0.5% 0.45%
Boundary Upstream Emissions (g CH ) NG ExitingBoundary (g)
EmissionRate
Numerator Denominator
Journal of Industrial Ecology, January 2016, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12394/pdf
4
• Background:• Sources: U.S. (PRB), Australia, Indonesia• Destinations: Japan, Korea, Taiwan
• GHG Analysis:• Emissions associated with coal mining activities are much
more significant in Australia and Indonesia than PRB• PRB disadvantages: longer transport distance (mine to
terminal, terminal to plant) and lower heating value
• TRACI 2.1 Analysis:• Global Warming Potential (GWP) is the only impact
category where the coal sources are essentially even• Non-GWP impact categories are driven by emissions from
diesel combustion (transport and mining) and affected by differences in diesel regulations between exporting countries
Understanding the Contribution of Mining & Transportation to the Total Life Cycle Impacts of Coal Exported from the U.S.Michele Mutchek, Greg Cooney, Gavin Pickenpaugh, Joe Marriott, Tim Skone
57.0 55.6
41.6
52.659.3 57.4
40.4
51.2
65.3
55.2
34.643.8
79.5 76.1
58.1
74.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
PRB
AU
ID -
Adar
o
ID -
Mul
ia
PRB
AU
ID -
Adar
o
ID -
Mul
ia
PRB
AU
ID -
Adar
o
ID -
Mul
ia
PRB
Aust
ralia
Indo
nesia
- Ad
aro
Indo
nesia
- M
ulia
Japan Korea Taiwan Japan - Carbon Capture
Gre
enho
use
Gas
Em
issi
ons
AR5
100-
yr G
WP
(kg
CO₂e
/MW
h) -
Ups
trea
m O
nly
Mining Coal Cleaning Truck Transport Rail Transport
Barge Transport Export Terminal Ocean Transport Import Terminal
Energies, July 2016, http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/7/559/pdf
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• Significant changes since 2005 baseline analysis:• Known changes to crude oil mix (source, extraction method, and
quality)• Transition to ultra low sulfur diesel, increasing refinery hydrogen
demand
• Utilize publicly available and peer-reviewed tools to inform the life cycle impacts of extraction and refining (OPGEE and PRELIM)
• Evaluate to understand uncertainty in long-term comparisons of alternative fuels projects to the petroleum baseline
• Potential policy implications (EISA Section 526; RFS2)
Updating the U.S. Life Cycle GHG Petroleum Baseline to 2014 with Projections to 2040 Using Open-Source Engineering-Based ModelsGreg Cooney, Matt Jamieson, Joe Marriott, Joule Bergerson, Adam Brandt, Tim Skone
• U.S. domestic share peaks at 62% in 2016• Tight oil accounts for 50% of U.S. domestic production by 2015• EOR share of production doubles over the forecast period• Canadian imports increase; all other imports drop off
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
U.S
. Cru
de C
onsu
mpt
ion,
(MM
bbl/
day)
Africa Latin America Middle East Canada Other U.S.
1 EIA. (2013). AEO 2014 Interactive Table Viewer. US Department of Energy Retrieved January 2, 2014, from http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/ 2 EIA. (2013). Petroleum & Other Liquids Data. US Department of Energy Retrieved January 2, 2014, from http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm 3 Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. (2013). Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Transportation. (2013-0013). Alberta, Canada: CAPP
Revising for Environmental Science & Technology
6
Synthesis of recent ground-level CH₄ emission measurements from U.S. natural gas supply chain
Measure Estimate Model Validate
Images are public domain: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Noun_project; commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Icon-notepad.svg;commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NetworkTopology-FullyConnected.png; publicdomainpictures.net/view-image.php?image=72186&picture=balanza-de-la-justicia&large=1
James Littlefield, Joe Marriott, Greg Schivley, Tim Skone
• Challenges- Compilation of new data with legacy data- Extrapolation of geographically-specific data to broader boundaries - Managing skewed emission distributions
• Our overall conclusions about supply chain have not changed, but our understanding of actors within supply chain have changed
Communicate
Submitted to Journal of Cleaner Production
7
• An LCA framework allows for in-depth examination of the system where captured CO₂ from fossil power is paired with EOR/ROZ
• Key considerations are the carbon intensity of the power that is displaced by the new plant equipped with carbon capture and the willingness of the crude producer to behave like a sequestration site
EOR for GHG Reduction: Achievable low-carbon fuel targets are dependent on the intersection of CO2 source GHG intensity & crude recovery efficiencyGreg Cooney, Joe Marriott, Matt Jamieson, Sean McCoy, Tim Skone
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
CO₂ I
nten
sity
of U
pstr
eam
CO
₂ (kg
CO
₂e/k
g CO
₂)
Crude Recovery Ratio (bbl/tonne CO₂ sequestered)
Baseline
10% Reduction
25% Reduction
50% Reduction
Net Zero
50 g Sequester100 g Sequester
Natural Dome
SCPC-2014 GridSCPC/30%-2014 Grid
SCPC-Fleet CoalSCPC/30%-Fleet Coal
NGCC-2014 Grid
NGCC-Fleet Coal
Coal-fired power
Gas-fired power
FuelCombustion
Refining
Crude Extraction
Power Plant
Fuel Extraction &
Transport
CO2Transport
FuelTransport
Crude Transport
Displaced Electricity
fuel
fuel
crude
CO2
kWh
coal/gas
CO2
crude
CO2 Intensity of Upstream CO2
Crude Recovery
Ratio
In Preparation
8
Natural Gas Modeling UpdatesTechnological & regional variability managed with a stochastic GHG model
12.4
23.0
10.314.5
18.8
24.7
48.6
20.8
29.9 31.21.3%
2.8%
1.1%
1.6%
1.3%1.6% (national)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Shale, Ft. WorthBasin
Tight Gas, RockyMountains
OnshoreConventional, Gulf
Coast
Shale, AppalachianBasin
Tight Gas, GulfCoast
CH₄Emission
Rate(m
ass CH₄ emissions/m
ass delivered NG as percentage)
GHG
Em
issi
ons
(g C
O₂e
/MJ N
G d
eliv
ered
)61
% o
f NG
goes
thro
ugh
dist
ribut
ion
afte
r tra
nsm
issio
n
Total CO₂e (100-yr GWP) Total CO₂e (20-yr GWP) CH₄ emission rate
• 31 “techno-regions” total• Top 5 techno-regions represent
58% of production• 90% confidence intervals represent
wide variability regionally, but this variability is tighter when national average is simulated
2016 version of LCA of Natural Gas Extraction and Power Generation is available on NETL’s Energy Analysis site:www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis /temp/LifeCycleAnalysisofNaturalGasExtractionandPowerGeneration_083016.pdf
9
• NETL has updated power plant baseline studies – the baseline LCA studies have been updated based on the new reports:
• Sub-critical pulverized coal• Supercritical pulverized coal• Natural gas combined cycle• Oxycombusted pulverized coal
• New LCA studies include life cycle impact results
Advanced Fossil Power Baseline LCAs
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
SCPC SCPC w/ CCS SCPC w/ EOR
All four reports available soon at: www.netl.doe.gov/lca
10
• Fuel cell LCA includes different technologies and feedstocks
• Conventional and catalytic gasifiers• Coal, natural gas, and coal with natural
gas
• TRACI 2.1 impacts + water consumption
• Stochastic cost of electricity results• Normalized environmental results are
shown here
Solid Oxide Fuel Cell LCA
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Conventional gasifier - CCS Catalytic gasifier - CCSConventional gasifier + NG - CCS Natural gas - CCSNatural gas - No CCS
11
• Time Series• Review of 1990-2010 GHG Inventory Data for
top 80% of GHG Emissions (21 largest sources)• Check interpolation assumptions• Look for alternative data sources
• Uncertainty• Subject Matter Experts for ERG Analysis of GHG
Inventory• Provide 90 confidence intervals for inputs• Select distribution type for inputs
EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory - Natural Gas Uncertainty and Time Series Review
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Plan
ts (A
F)
scfy
/pla
nt (E
F)
Pneumatic Devices
Emissions Factors Activity Factors
Example of emissions and activity factors from GHGI time series data between 1990 and 2014
12
• The Federal LCA Commons is a collaboration among U.S. federal agencies to combine their LCA inventories and tools into an open access, usable product (lcacommons.gov)
• NETL is working with NREL and USDA to translate NETL’s unit processes into openLCAformat and publish the database on the LCA Federal Commons.
Federal LCA Commons
13
• Background:• Applicants must “avoid, reduce, or sequester” GHG emissions
• Advanced Fossil• Renewable Energy and Efficient Energy
• Compares GHG emissions to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario
• Analysis:• Suggest BAU product or technology• Calculate life cycle GHG emissions for the applicant and BAU• Include all products in the comparison
• NETL provided analysis for over a dozen projects in the past year
DOE Loan Program Office GHG Analysishttp://energy.gov/lpo/innovative-clean-energy-projects-title-xvii-loan-program
140
110
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
BAU Advanced Technology
GHG
Emiss
ions
AR-
5 10
0-yr
GW
P(k
g CO
₂e/u
nit)
Sample Comparison
Product A Product B Product C Advanced Technology
21% reduction
14
Emerging Work: Power Baseline
• We’ve characterized life cycles of >95% of components of U.S. electricity grid
• Calculating a national value for current year is straightforward
• Key questions:- How does our answer change
with temporal and technology shifts?
- What data and modeling capabilities are required to make a power baseline more useful?
534
691
502
179
1,145
992
266
950
256
914
238 242
121
301
36 21 35 17 36 48
287
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Flee
t Gas
- Ba
selo
ad
GTSC
Adva
nced
Nat
ural
Gas
w/o
CCS
Adva
nced
Nat
ural
Gas
w/ C
CS
Flee
t Coa
l - B
asel
oad
Adva
nced
Coa
l –PC
w/o
CCS
Adva
nced
Coa
l –PC
w/
CCS
Adva
nced
Coa
l –SC
PC w
/o C
CS
Adva
nced
Coa
l –SC
PC w
/ CCS
Adva
nced
Coa
l –U
SCPC
w/o
CCS
Adva
nced
Coa
l –U
SCPC
w/ C
CS
Adva
nced
Coa
l –O
xy C
ombu
stio
n
Adva
nced
Coa
l –Fu
el C
ells
Chem
ical
Loo
ping
Flee
t Nuc
lear
Adva
nced
Nuc
lear
Hydr
o
Win
d
Sola
rthe
rmal
Sola
r PV
Geot
herm
al
Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables
Life
cyc
le G
HG e
miss
ions
for
deliv
ered
ele
ctric
ity u
sing
AR5
GWPs
(g
CO
₂e/k
Wh
deliv
ered
)
NG extraction Coal extractionU fuel acquistion Fuel transportPower plant Mean GHG using 20-yr GWP
15
• Implementation of Consequential LCA for Energy Systems
• Development of Social LCIA Metrics & MCDM frameworks
• Creation of Power System Construction Inventories
Other Emerging Work
16
Contact Information
Timothy J. Skone, P.E.Senior Environmental Engineer • Strategic Energy Analysis (412) 386-4495 • [email protected]
Joe MarriottPrincipal Engineer • [email protected]
James LittlefieldSenior Engineer • [email protected]
netl.doe.gov/LCA [email protected] @NETL_News