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Leveraging NDCs for action to address climate challenges for fisheries and aquaculture in the Asia-Pacific region

Beau Damen, FAO

Charting a course after Paris

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Overview

1. The long lead up to Paris (UNFCCC and Agriculture)

2. The Paris Agreement – Key Features3. A closer look at NDCs and fisheries (and

aquaculture)4. NAPs as a pillar of NDC implementation5. Take away messages

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The Challenge

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 2030 2050

Asia

Latin AmericaAfrica

Europe

North America

Oceania

Food Production by Region 1972-2050(Constant 2004-06 US$)

Temperature trend, Asia, 1901-2012 (annual trend change in degrees Celsius over period)

Sources of emissions from agriculture and land use in Asia(average values 2001-2011)

2,199

573

-186

45 425

-700

-200

300

800

1,300

1,800

2,300

Crops &Livestock

Net ForestConversion

Forest BiomassFires

DegradedPeatlands

Million tonnes

CO

2, Average values over 2001-11

Food production needs to grow.. ..in the face of a changing climate.. ..while addressing GHG emissions.

Sources: California Environmental Associates, 2013 – based on FAO. 2012; IPCC, 2014; FAOSTAT, 20153

Agriculture, Land-use and the UNFCC1992 - UNFCCC• Article 2 – Objective

– “..stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system..”

– “... achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened…”

• Article 4 - Commitments– Acknowledging parties common, but differentiated responsibilities shall:

• Maintain inventories of sources and sinks• Promote technologies and practices to reduce or prevent emissions• Promote sustainable management

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Agriculture, Land-use and Kyoto1997 - Kyoto Protocol• Significant• 36 developed countries (Annex I countries)• Committed to reduce emissions by 4% between 1990 and 2008-

2012• Limited inclusion of land use, land use change and forestry

– Accounting rules for LULUCF were not finalized but included under Article 3– Net changes in GHG sources and sinks contribute to commitments up to a

‘cap’

Was Kyoto effective?Short answer – Yes!• Annex I countries reduced

emissions by 24%But…• On a closer look there are

many problems– Weak transparency and

loopholes including some for LULUCF

– Lack of coverage (Non-Annex I countries)

– Kyoto was unable to stop growth in global emissions11.281

7.189

2.441

2.276

0.431

0.386

0.28

0.08

-0.233

-0.305

-0.611

-0.652

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

TotalChina

Other developingOther large developing nations

USAInternational transport

Other OECD 1990Japan

EU new membersEU 15Russia

Other economies in transition

Change in CO2 emissions, 1990 to 2011 By region and country, GT

Adapted from: Clark, 2012 based on UNFCCC

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Key Lessons - Kyoto• Dedicating significant negotiation resources on

emissions reductions commitments and their legally binding nature was not efficient or effective

• Monitoring and reporting of commitments is essentialfor building trust among countries to enact policies and programmes to improve management

• Flexibility should be a key element of the adoption process and any future agreement

• Coverage must be expanded to have any possibility of curbing emissions

Source: Morel & Shishlov (2014)

In parallel - Moves to better integrate risks of & responses to CC at a conceptual level

Schematic of the interaction among the physical climate system, exposure, and vulnerability producing riskRisk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems

Source: IPCC (2014)

CLIMATE SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSES

RISK

IMPACTS

EMISSIONSAnd Land-use Change

Natural Variability

Anthropogenic Climate Change

Socioeconomic Pathways

Adaptation and Mitigation Actions

Governance

Hazards

Exposure

Vulnerability

= (Probability of event) X Consequences

The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, etc. in places and settings that could be adversely affected.

The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected - encompasses a variety of concepts including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, ecosystems, etc.

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Path toward a global agreement

COP21 Paris

Agreement

20152007

COP13 Bali Action Plan

for long-term agreement post

Kyoto

2010

COP16 Cancun

Agreements move away from

top-down approach to

national pledges

COP15Copenhagen

Accord & adoption of 2 degree target

2009

COP17 Durban Parties establish

plan for a binding legal agreement

2011

2013

COP19 Warsaw Parties agree to

INDC and transparency

rules

Time

COP20 Lima outcome

results in adaptation gaining equal footing with

mitigation

2014

COP11 Montreal Costa Rica &

PNG‘RED’ in

developing countries

2005

UNFCC & Kyoto

• Common but differentiated responsibilities

• Focus on mitigation

• Role of forestry has grown over time

• Agriculture largely neglected

Paris Agreement – OverviewWhat is the Paris Agreement?• An agreement by the 196 Parties to the UNFCCC to act limit the

increase in global average temperature to below 2°C• Long-term commitment to balance emission sources and sinks

When will action start & finish?• Commitment period commences in 2020• Countries have identified actions up to 2025 and at least 2030

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How will the Agreement be implemented?• Agreement based upon Nationally Determined Contributions

(NDCs)• Parties have agreed to be bound by an enhanced transparency

framework (ETF)

What is an enhanced transparency framework?• Countries will be required to submit the following on a regular

basis:1. A national inventory report of anthropogenic emissions 2. Information necessary to track progress implementing the

NDCs

Paris Agreement – Overview

2030

Road ahead for the Paris Agreement

2017

Review of adaptation under the UNFCC

2020

Parties to communicate NDC

and long-term emissions strategies

and deadline for achieving US100

billion financing goal

Facilitative dialogue on INDCs,

discussion of common modalities

for transparency and IPCC report on

1.5 degrees

2018

First stock take of

progress

2023

2025

Developed countries to

review adequacy of finance

Second stock take of

progress

2028

Countries invited to sign-up and work

commences on CBIT

2016

Paris Features

• Global (55 rule)

• Country driven

• Partially-binding

• Special long-term role afforded to sinks

• Transparency key tool for implementation

• Equal importance of resilience and adaptation

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• NDC key planning document for future climate change adaptation and mitigation actions

• Warsaw Framework for REDD+ and results-based payments enshrined as part of the Agreement

• Experience with REDD+ and MRV means forest sector may have useful lessons for Transparency Framework

• Opportunities to highlight and foster non-carbon benefits for biodiversity, livelihoods and resilience among others

• Potential to access public and private finance to support NDC implementation

Implications for Agriculture and Land-use sectors

Paris and the Asia-Pacific Region

• Under the Paris Agreement countries in Asia-Pacific have signaled Agriculture (crops, livestock, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture) as a key concern

• Countries have identified 256INDC priority actions for the Agriculture sectors

• Action to address climate change an “enabler” for SDGs

18 12 12 10 9 10 4 7 9 11 11 8 8 4 7 4 2 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 11

0 0 0

9

10 77

64

10

64

1

2 1

3 34

21

1 11

1 11 1

0 0 00

5

10

15

20

25

30

Adaptation Mitigation

Number of INDC actions for agriculture and land-use sectors in Asia-Pacific (by country)

14Source: FAORAP, 2016

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Share of INDC actions identified for the agriculture and land use sectors in Asia-Pacific by type(percentage - number in brackets)

Priorities for climate action in Agriculture

27 9 19 7 5 30 72

37

312

12 6

1

16

0102030405060708090

100

Forestry Fisheriesand

aquaculture

Crops Livestock Land Water Sector-wide

Number of INDC actions identified for agriculture and land-use sectors in Asia-Pacific (by broad agriculture sector)

66%

34%

(169)

(87)

Adaptation is the most pressing concern… ….and action is required across all agriculture sectors.

Sources: FAORAP, 201615

A closer look at fisheries and aquacultureNumber of INDC fisheries & aquaculture actionsBy country

0

1

2

3

4

5

Adaptation Mitigation

9

3

Adaptation Mitigation

10

2

Fisheries Aquaculture

Fisheries & Aquaculture INDC actions in Asia-PacificNumber of adaptation and mitigation actions and Fisheries and Aquaculture specific actions

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9

17

• Stress tolerant fisheries varieties

• Promoting climate resilient agriculture in coastal areas through building sea dykes and scaling-up of climate-smart farming systems

• Promoting aquaculture production systems and practices that are adaptive to climate change

• Enhance resistance to marine disasters and management of coastal zones and to improve the resilience of coastal areas against climatic disasters

• Strengthen fisherman insurance mechanism to ensure minimum monthly income from fishing activities for lost fishing due extreme events

• Research and develop solutions to reduce GHG emissions in fisheries

• Design, procure and install off-grid PV systems for the Fish Centres to support a fully equipped centres lighting, refrigeration and other equipment

A closer look at fisheries and aquaculture

Implementation – Some unknownsNDC implementation timeline – Escalating programming and reporting requirements(Illustrative example)

Existing Programs

Scaled up Programs

(sector and geographical levels)

NDC Implementation Activities

(whole sector and broad geographical scope)

Project &Programme M&E Aggregated M&R ETF Progress Monitoring

Now 2020 2030

Priority Activities

Progress Monitoring

Source: FAORAP, 2016

• Scaling-up from project level to national level actions

• Meeting transparency requirements for data and verification

• Finance

• Increasing ambition levels

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Despite its significance Paris will not be enoughEmissions gaps between current pledges and temperature goalsGHG emissions, GtCO2e per year

Source: CAT, 2016

• By 2030 the emissions gap to keep us on 2 degree pathway could be as much as 15-17 GtCO2e

• More if 1.5 degrees is our goal

• The agriculture and land-use sectors have an important contribution to make if we are to avoid potentially dangerous climate change

Relationship between INDCs and other UNFCC planning mechanisms

Illustrative example

NDC is not duplication

Adapted from: GIZ, 2015

UNFCCCCommitment

Pledge(INDC)

NDC Action (NDC Implementation)

NAM

A

RED

D+

NAP

NAM

A

RED

D+

NAP

NAM

A

RED

D+

NAP

NAM

A

RED

D+

NAP

National Development and Climate Change PoliciesLong-term strategy

Activity/Tool

2015 2016-2019 2020-2030

• NDCs rooted in existing policy frameworks

• NDCs will be guided by and build upon existing tools and activities

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National Adaptation Plans National

Development Plans & Budget

allocation

Sector Plans & Guidance

District Plans & Budget

Allocations

ProjectFormulation

Guidance & PracticeProject Implementation

Project Monitoring &

Impact Assessment

Sector Performance

Review & Evaluation

National Planning & Budgeting

Process

Integrating Climate Change into Planning

and Budgeting

National Development Plans & Budget allocation

Sector Plans & Guidance

District Plans & Budget Allocations

Project Formulation Guidance & Practice

Project Implementation

Project Monitoring & Impact

Assessment

Sector Performance Review & Evaluation

Sector Adaptation Plans

& Guidance

District Vulnerability Assessments,

Adaptation Plans & Budgets

Adaptation projects costed &

prioritized

National Adaptation Plan

Implementing adaptation practices

Adaptation Impact monitoring

Review of adaptation

effectivenessNational Planning & Budgeting Process &

Adaptation Entry Points

National Adaptation Plans

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• Capacity building with VA&A and costing adaptation

• Identifying entry points for adaptation in existing planning processes

• Field monitoring of adaptation practices• Learning by doing

Nepal

Thailand

VietnamPhilippines

Key Elements of FAO NAP Activities in Asia*

* Specific activities will differ by country based on country context

Integration using a ‘Technical Team’*

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Adaptation Technical Team

Planning & BudgetingDisaster

Risk Reduction

& Response

Field Crops

LivestockFisheries

Forestry

Water & Irrigation

Extension

Climate Information Services

Others

Adaptation Technical Team

• Cross agency Team involving working-level technical specialists

• Team is engaged for key implementation activities

• Team acts as a focus group for national and field-level training activities

• Team members act as champions for adaptation within their respective agencies/departments

Adapted from: ICEM, 2013

* Approach will differ by country based on country context

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NAP & INDC: Key Issues• Finding effective coordination mechanisms

• Integrating agriculture and land-use sectors into NAP implementation planning

• Turning NAPs into action pipelines for NDC implementation

• Financing and scaling up effective adaptation in the agriculture and land-use sectors

• Building capacity to measure and monitor progress

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Take away messages• Climate agreements are facilitating incremental progress

toward global action on climate change

• Progressively moving from differentiated to shared responsibilities

• Agriculture and land-use are important for addressing the drivers and impacts of climate change

• Role of forestry and, now agriculture, has been increasingly acknowledged in climate change agreements

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Take away messages

• Paris Agreement is an important milestone that elevates the role that agriculture and land-use play in tackling the climate challenge

• NDCs provide a framework for action to help us chart a course

• A number of countries have identified specific actions for fisheries and aquaculture sectors

Take away messages

• Enhanced engagement in NDC review up to 2020 will be important to ensure fisheries and aquaculture sectors are properly reflected

• NAPs and other processes are key pillars for planning and implementing NDC actions

• Sub-sector engagement will be crucial for ensuring adaptation requirements are incorporated

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Thank You

29

Discussion Questions

• Are fisheries and aquaculture stakeholders engaging with relevant nation stakeholders to influence the priorities identified in the INDCs?

• How could fisheries and aquaculture stakeholders enhance engagement in the NDC review process in the lead up to 2020?

• Once the fisheries and aquaculture sectors are properly reflected as NDC priority actions what are effective ways to scale-up action at national or large geographical scales?

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Discussion Questions

• Once the fisheries and aquaculture sectors are properly reflected as NDC priority actions what are effective ways to scale-up action at national or large geographical scales?