Overview and Basic DataR&W Chapters 2, 3, 11

Link to WDI

Link to syllabus

Link to canvas: http://canvas.umd.umich.edu

Skip Figures 2.3, 2.4 pages 15, 16

Dahi on Arab Revolts

MENA map

Map 3.2 pp. 50-51 2nd Ed. of R&W. MENA Population Density

Map 3.1 pp. 46-48 R&W 2nd ed. MENA Precipitation

Muslim Population Outside MENA, ~2000. (In millions.)

Bangladesh 90-100 China 40-100 Europe 5-20 France 2-2.5 Germany 1.5-2 U.K. 1 India 100-120Indonesia 150-180Malaysia 15Nigeria 30-60Pakistan 100US 2-3 [Israel < 0.8 ]

Recall: Egypt, Iran and Turkey each have populations of ~70 million, while that of Saudi Arabia is about 30 million.

Data selected by m.t. from the array of estimates in <adherents.com>

Total number of adherents to Islam is about 1.5 billion (1 to 1.8).

There are more Muslims outside of the Middle East than inside it.

Shi’ite populations

Shi’a Shrines in Iraq & Iran

Yemen-Ethno-religious Groups

Source: Juan Cole’s blog: December, 2010.

Distribution and Density of Kurdish People, ~ 1990

World pop 25-35 m; 11-15m in Turkey, 5m in each of Iran and Iraq, 1m Syria, 1.5 m in West Europe.

Is 1/3 of total pop. in Iraq, 1/6 of Turkey

Source for popl estimates: Encyclopedia of the Orient

“Berbers” in Northern Africa

Total ~35 million

Morocco 19 m, 13m Algeria, 2.5m Western Europe

Percentage Christian Population

Algeria 1.0 Iran 0.2 Palestine 2.1Egypt 6.0 Iraq 3.0 Qatar 0.0Libya 1.0 Israel 2.1 Saudi Arabia 0.0Morocco 1.0 Jordan 6.0 Syria 10.0Tunisia 1.0 Kuwait 0.0 Turkey 0.2

Lebanon 39.0 UAE 0.0Oman 0.0 Yemen 0.0

Source: religiouspopulation.com

Overall, was perhaps 20% in 1900, and is 5% now.

Over one million Armenians died in the massacres during the 1910s.

The Three Arab Worlds

Source: Rauch and Kostyshak, JEP Summer, 2009

Development Strategies

R&W Chapt. 2, pp. 21-29

Resource Endowments: World Bank

Patterns of Growth

R&W Chapt. 3 pp. 67-68

Political Regimes

R&W Chapt. 11

Rauch & Kostyshak Journal Econ Perspectives (Summer 2009)

Regime TypesClement and Springborg

Agro-export: Egypt pre-Nasser

Resource Rich/Labor Abundant: Algeria, Iran, Syria, Yemen[should have included Iraq]

Coupon Clippers (oil rents): Libya, Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar

Socialist Republics: Turkey under Ataturk, Egypt under Nasser

Arab-Mediterranean:Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia-middle income with large peasantries, urbanization, manufacturing. Moved from ISI to liberalization. Not democratized, but have authoritarian-populist regimes. Progress on social issues such as education and life expectancy

Bunker states: Algeria, Libya, Yemen, Saddam’s Iraq, SyriaRaw Materials

Minerals: Morocco, JordanOil: Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Subcategory of those with rural population and ag potential: Algeria, Iran, Iraq

Resource Rich/Labor Scarce: Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE [Libya, Qatar]

Oil Industrializers: Iran, Iraq, Saudi, Algeria

Radicals: Algeria, Syria, Iraq (60s-80s), Libya, PLO

Bully Praetorian States: Egypt, Tunisia, Palestinian Authority

ISI: Turkey 1920s-1980

Resource Poor/Labor Abundant: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, Djibouti [West Bank]

Watch-makers (skill intensive exports): Israel, Jordan, Tunisia, Syria??

Liberal Monarchies: Jordan, Morocco, Iran (under Pahlavis), Arabia

Globalizing Monarchies: Arabia, Morocco, Jordan, early Iraq

Manufactured Exports/NIC Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, Israel

Services: Lebanon, Jordan, Dubai and other Gulf

NICs (large pop., land, industrial growth) Turkey, Egypt, Morocco

Democracies: Turkey, Israel, Lebanon

Arab Sub-Saharan Africa, (Sudan, Somalia, Mauritania), Yemen

Precarious Democracies: Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, Iran

Agro-poor: Sudan, Yemen

Islamic Republics: Iran and Sudan

Fuel endowed countries-Arabia, Iraq, Algeria, Libya

Lebanon is apparently a class all by itself

Iran, Israel, Turkey not included because focus is on Arab states.

Development strategies (Chapter 2 of R&W)

Agricultural export: Egypt and cotton. Iraq somewhat.Raw materials: mining (Morocco, Jordan); petroleum (Algeria, Libya, Gulf – Iraq, Iran, Arabian peninsula except Yemen).Import Substituting Industrialization: Turkey until about 1970Manufactured Exports: Morocco, Tunisia (export processing), Turkey more recently. Israel has excelled.Service exports: Lebanon, Jordan, Dubai and some other Gulf.

Country Groupings Based on Resource Endowments in MENA p. 186

Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking the Employment Potential in the MENA page 186

Patterns/Policies of National Economic Growth and Structural Change (R&W pp. 67-68)

1. Coupon clippers (of oil rents): Libya, Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar [rentier economies]

2. Oil Industrializers: Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Saudi Arabia3. Watchmakers (limited resources, so invest in human

capital and exporting of skilled labor intensive manufactured products): Israel, Jordan, Tunisia, Syria

4. NICs (large populations, sufficient land, good industrial development): Turkey, Egypt, Morocco

5. Agro-poor: Sudan and Yemen 6. Lebanon is apparently a case all to itself

Political Regimes: Chapter 11 of R&W

Socialist Republics: Turkey under Ataturk, Egypt under Nasser

Radicals: Algeria, Syria, Iraq (especially 60s to 80s); Libya, PLO

Liberal Monarchies: Jordan, Morocco, Iran (under Pahlavis), Arabia

Democracies: Turkey, Israel, Lebanon

Islamic Republics: Iran, Sudan

Political Regimes: Chapter 11 of R&W

Socialist Republics: Turkey under Ataturk, Egypt under Nasser nothing contemporary here

Radicals: Algeria, Syria, Iraq (especially 60s to 80s); Libya, PLO

Liberal?? Monarchies: Jordan, Morocco, Iran (under Pahlavis), Arabia more historyDemocracies: Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, Palestine?

Islamic Republics: Iran, Sudan

Tunisia was/is a sort of democracy

Ross on Oil and Democracy in MENA

Oil hinders the development of democracy because: 1) monarchs can buy off the citizens (e.g., Saudi Arabia) 2) all this money allows the regime to keep finances secret low taxes high benefits 3) monarchs can even buy off the military

Comments: a) Some monarchs have esteem for historical/religious reasons: Morocco, Saudi Arabia, b) some monarchies instituted slow democratic change: Morocco, Jordan. Ongoing in Kuwait. c) Michael Ross has also written on how women’s rights are lower in oil-exporting states.

Non-Nationals as Share of Labor Force

Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking Employment

Persian Gulf

Dahi on Causes of the Arab Revolts

Political: anti-authoritarianism. This is very clearEconomic: True? To what extent? AHDR had been critical of lack of economic progress, worsening distribution of income IMF/World Bank had pushed structural adjustment policies, and economic liberalization. Expansion of FDI. (Tunisia & Egypt) States had not been successful ‘development states’ such as in Japan, Korea, etc. In contrast, several unhelpful policy decisions: Fighting dissent with prison etc. (context of anti-terrorism 9/11 campaign Alienated private sector business elites with ‘crony capitalism’ Starkly true in Tunisia and Egypt. Broader discussion of the decline of the authoritarian populist social contract

Table 3.1 p. 46 (R&W). Population and GDP/Cap

GDP/Person, average 2007-2011 (US$ 2005) [WDI]

Algeria 3,120 Morocco 2,284Bahrain 14,495 Oman 14,494Egypt 1,488 Qatar 52,592Iran 3,081 Saudi A. 15,498Iraq 1,418 Syrian 1,667Israel 21,381 Tunisia 3,686Jordan 2,757 Turkey 7,804Kuwait 31,668 U.A.E. 33,236Lebanon 6,488 West Bank #N/ALibya 8,681 Yemen 853

USA 44,386

GNI/Capita 2005, PPP$

Algeria 6,689 Morocco 3,495Bahrain 22,420 Oman 19,602Egypt 4,629 Qatar #N/AIran 9,005 Saudi Arabia 21,049Iraq 2,692 Syria 4,077Israel 23,095 Tunisia 6,818Jordan 4,449 Turkey 11,393Kuwait 52,371 U. A. E. 66,621Lebanon 9,670 W. B. Gaza #N/ALibya 14,362 Yemen 2,072

United States 44,744

Source WDI

Comparisons: year is 20022002

PopulationGNI/Cap GDP/Cap PPP 1995$(millions) PopulationGNI/CapGDP/Cap PPP 1995$

Jordan 5 $1,760 $3,741Lebanon 4 $3,900 $4,212Syrian Arab Republic17 $1,090 $3,124

Morocco 30 $1,170 $3,374Algeria 31 $1,720 $5,122 Oman 3 $7,830 $11,813Bahrain 1 $11,260 $15,196 Qatar 1 #N/A #N/AEgypt, Arab Rep.66 $1,470 $3,377 Saudi Arabia 22 $8,530 $11,377Iran, Islamic Rep.66 $1,790 $5,935 Tunisia 10 $1,990 $5,990Iraq 24 #N/A #N/A Turkey 70 $2,510 $5,637Israel 7 $16,020 $17,300 United Arab Emirates4 #N/A #N/AKuwait 2 $16,340 $14,455 West Bank and Gaza3 $1,110 #N/A

Source: WDI

MENA: Real GDP/Capita. US$ 2000 prices

300

3,000

30,000

AlgeriaBahrainEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.

UAEKuwait

Qatar

Israel

Saudi A.

Semi-log graph

Turkey: Real GDP/capita, 1913-2000

Turkey

100

1,000

10,000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

Rea

l GD

P/ca

pita

Data: Maddison (1995) for 1913, Turkish Gov’t 1926-1960, WDI

Egypt: Real GDP/capita, 1913-2000

Egypt

100

1,000

10,000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Rea

l GD

P/ca

pita

Data: Maddison (1995) for 1913, Maddison (2000) 1950-1960, WDI

Fig. 3.3 p. 52 (R&W). Crude Oil Prices, 2004 US$

Saudi Arabia: Real GDP/capita, 1950-2000

Saudi Arabia

1,000

10,000

100,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Rea

l GD

P/ca

pita

Data: Maddison (2000) 1950-1960, WDI

Iran: Real GDP/capita, 1950-2000

Iran

100

1,000

10,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Rea

l GD

P/ca

pita

Data: Maddison (2000) 1950-1973, WDI

GDP/cap: Kuwait

Kuwait

10,000

100,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Rea

l GD

P/c

apita

Lebanon: Real GDP/capita

Lebanon

1,000

10,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Rea

l GD

P/c

apita

Palestine-Israel-West Bank & GazaPalestine-Israel/West Bank & Gaza:Real GDP/Capita, 1990 PPP$

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

1990

PPP

$ Israel - M WB&G-MPalestine-"Arab"Palestine-Jew

Source: mt’s calculations, based on Maddison and WDI [PBS]. Merged at 1948

Semi-log graph.

The Human Development Index, 1997

Source: Arab Human Development Report

Human Development Index

1980 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1Israel

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Bahrain

Kuwait

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

Saudi Arabia

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Tunisia

Jordan

Turkey

Algeria

Egypt

Syrian Arab Republic

Yemen

Occupied Palestinian Terri-tory

HDI: A composite index measuring average achievement in three basic dimensions of human development—a long and healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living.

Human Development Index: 1.0 is Maximum

HDI 1975 2000 1975 2000

Algeria 0.50 0.70 Morocco 0.43 0.60Bahrain - 0.83 Oman - 0.75Egypt 0.44 0.64 Qatar - 0.80Iran 0.56 0.72 Saudi Arabia 0.59 0.76Iraq - - Sudan 0.35 0.50Israel 0.79 0.90 Syria 0.54 0.69Jordan - 0.72 Tunisia 0.51 0.72Kuwait 0.75 0.81 Turkey 0.59 0.74Lebanon - 0.76 UAE - 0.81Libya - 0.77 WB & Gaza - -

Yemen - 0.48

Link to HDI http://hdrstats.undp.org/indicators/1.html

Index of Freedom: 1 is highestsource: Freedom House

Year 1972-73 2001-02 1972-73 2001-02Algeria 6,6,NF 6,5 NF Oman 7,6,NF 6,5 NFBahrain 6,5,NF 6,5 NF Qatar 6,5,NF 6,6 NFEgypt 6,6,NF 6,6 NF Saudi Arabia6,6,NF 7,7 NFIran 5,6,NF 6,6 NF Sudan 6,6,NF 7,7 NFIraq 7,7,NF 7,7 NF Syria 7,7,NF 7,7 NFIsrael 2,3,F 1,3 F Tunisia 6,5,NF 6,5 NFJordan 6,6,NF 5,5 PF Turkey 3,4,PF 4,5 PFKuwait 4,4,PF 4,5 PF United Arab Emir.7,5,NF 6,5 NFLebanon 2,2,F 6,5 PF Yemen - 6,6 NFLibya 7,6,NF 7,7 NF Yemen, N. 4,4,PF -Morocco 5,4,PF 5,5 PF Yemen, S. 7,7,NF -

F – free; PF partly free; NF not free.

Illiteracy, %

1950s 1970s 2000 1950s 1970s 2000 Algeria 83 74 33 Bahrain 87 60 12Egypt 75 62 45 Iran 87 64 24Iraq 89 76 44 Israel - 12 5Jordan - 46 10 Kuwait 66 40 18Lebanon - 37 14 Libya 87 50 20Morocco 86 79 51 Oman - 81 28Qatar - 42 19 Saudi Arabia- 67 24Sudan 88 85 42 Syria - 60 26Tunisia 84 62 29 Turkey 68 40 15UAE - 44 24 WB & Gaza - - 14Yemen - 86 54

Source: WDI

Figure 3.7 p. 62 (R&W) Growth of Manufacturing Value Added

Table 3.9 p. 66. Structure of Merchandise Exports, 1990 and 2003

Table 3.10 p. 67 (R&W). Structure of Imports, 1970 and 2003

Table 3.3 p. 59 (R&W). Structure of Production, by Sector

Table 3.7 p. 63 (R&W). Sectoral Distribution of the Labor Force

Main Ideas of Clement Henry, “Clash of Globalizations: Obstacles to Development”

(Old economic vision of) WW Rostow, “Take-off to sustained econ growth”

Evident Political Problems to MENA Growth: Arab-Israeli conflict Intra-Arab conflicts

Beyond that, three other debates: Military Expenditures Oil rents Colonial Legacy

Good discussion of how Globalization and its reforms have their negative sides, and how Political Liberalization had been reversed by 2001

Arab Human Development Report: key deficiencies in MENA Freedom Women’s Empowerment Human Knowledge capabilities

Population, in thousands

Population--000 at mid-year1913 1950 1973 1998

Algeria 8,893 15,198 30,481Bahrain 104 115 239 616Egypt 12,144 21,198 35,480 66,050Iran 10,994 16,357 31,491 64,411Iraq 2,613 5,163 10,402 21,722Israel 700 1,286 3,197 5,644Jordan 348 561 1,674 4,453Kuwait 145 894 1,913Lebanon 649 1,364 2,824 3,506Libya 800 961 2,312 4,874Morocco 4,500 9,343 16,998 29,114Oman 421 489 857 2,364Qatar 25 142 697Saudi Arabia 2,800 3,860 6,667 20,786Sudan 8,051 15,113 33,551Syria 1,994 3,495 6,931 16,673Tunisia 3,517 5,426 9,380Turkey 15,000 21,122 38,503 64,568UAE 72 391 2,303West Bank + Gaza 1,016 1,098 2,611Yemen 3,284 4,461 7,077 16,388

Table 1 in handout

GDP per capita, 1990 PPP $:Year 1870 1913 1930 1940 1950 1973 1998

Algeria 1,028 1,104 1,397 1,365 2,356 2,688Bahrain 2,104 4,377 4,620Egypt 732 732 718 1,022 2,128Iran 1,720 5,445 4,265Iraq 1,364 3,753 1,131Israel 2,817 9,646 15,152Jordan 1,663 2,389 4,113Kuwait 28,834 26,674 11,273Lebanon 2,429 3,157 3,445Libya 8,169 4,757Morocco 807 1,040 1,455 1,694 2,693Oman 622 3,278 7,267Qatar 30,520 43,859 7,304Saudi Arabia 2,231 11,040 8,225Sudan 821 780 880Syria 2,409 4,018 5,765Tunisia 822 1,164 1,115 2,221 4,190Turkey 1,370 1,304 2,017 1,818 3,753 6,552UAE 15,694 24,908 13,857West Bank + Gaza 950 2,236 5,671Yemen 976 1,757 2,298Palestine 589 847 1,993 of which: Jews 1,435 1,463 3,144 Arabs and others 421 584 949

GDP in 1990 PPP $ (billion)

1913 1920 1930 1950 1973 1998

Algeria 6,738 7,307 8,963 12,136 35,814 81,948Bahrain - - - 242 1,046 2,846Egypt 8,891 - - 15,224 36,249 140,546Iran - - - 28,128 171,466 274,695Iraq - - - 7,041 39,042 24,564Israel - - - 3,623 30,839 85,520Jordan - - - 933 3,999 18,313Kuwait - - - 4,181 23,847 21,565Lebanon - - - 3,313 8,915 12,077Libya - - - - 18,298 25,398Morocco 3,630 4,683 6,739 13,598 28,800 78,397Oman - - - 304 2,809 17,179Qatar - - - 763 6,228 5,091Saudi Arabia - - - 8,610 73,601 170,972Syria - - - 8,418 27,846 96,112Tunisia 1,651 2,089 2,786 3,920 12,051 39,306Turkey 18,090 16,587 29,124 38,408 144,483 423,018UAE - - - 1,130 9,739 31,913W Bank + Gaza - - - 965 2,455 14,807Yemen - - - 4,353 12,431 37,656Palestine - 325 584 4,588 - - of which: Jews - 67 237 3,468 - - Arabs and others- 258 348 1,120 - -

Table 3.4 p. 59 (R&W). Growth of GDP, MENA

Dahi Graph 2

Dahi Graph 3.

Dahi Graph 1

Regime Types: Henry and SpringborgGlobalization and the Politics of Development in the M.E.

Bunker States Algeria, Libya, Yemen, Saddam’s Iraq, Syria

Bully Praetorian States Egypt, Tunisia, Palestinian Authority

Globalization Monarchies Arabia, Morocco, Jordan, early Iraq

Precarious Democracies Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, Iran (but slipping into the bully category)

Regime types (II)

Bunker states: Led by social forces that are minorities (Alawi in Syria) Have little institutional capacity to manage economy Have largest informal sectors, and low tax rates. Technocrats have little power to determine policy Have low financial development

Praetorian Bully States Rule rests on institutional power of military/security/party Have large government sectors Characterized by ‘crony capitalism’ Stifle private sector Lack political legitimacy

Shi’ite Populations, early 2000s

Source: Juan Cole lecture, Feb. 2009, at: http://lecb.physics.lsa.umich.edu/wl/carma/2009/20090128-aptis/20090204-umwlcd0012-102631/real/f001.htm

Also, Yemen, 30% (5m) near Sana

Shi’ite Populations