Upload
brooke-macgregor
View
217
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Over-reliance on old methods› Afraid to make mistakes
Poor talent evaluation Few self-checks
› One bad contract kills a team
Anything that prevents a team from reaching its potential› Overpaying for talent› Injuries› Age› Unrealistic expectations
SELF-INFLICTED
Sensitivity to Operations Preoccupation with Failure Deference to Expertise Commitment to Resilience Reluctance to Simplify Interpretations
Everyone understands the big picture Knowledge sharing throughout
organization System-wide knowledge of operations
MLB teams have no top-down identity Teams are thrown together
› No attention to cohesiveness or culture Moves are made based on whims
› Reactions instead of proaction
All teams should have a core identity› Young players› Forward-looking statistics
Teams should communicate its policy with players
All members of organization should have the ability to offer suggestions› Players› Front office staff› Stadium concierge staff
Failure is always possible Small mistakes may become
catastrophic Active evaluation of operations
› Identify errors before they happen
Teams routinely shoot themselves in the foot› Improper evaluation of talent› Bad contracts› Ill-conceived signings› Poor talent evaluation
Teams think too much about what could be› Not enough about what actually is
The mistakes of today have tremendous future consequences› Instant gratification
Contract year syndrome
WAR: Wins Above ReplacementAverage Starter: +2 WAR
Make sure all talent fits the bill› Don’t force square pegs into round holes
Only sign affordable talent› No aging/injury prone players
Consider intangibles› Media pressure› Ability to handle success/money
Decisions should be made by people with the most relevant expertise
Those with the most knowledge make the decisions regardless of rank
Blindly following the hierarchy can lead to mistakes
Baseball talent evaluation favors the wrong stats› Wins› RBI› Batting Average
Teams are unwilling to embrace new methodologies
Teams act before they think
Bring in stats experts from outside of baseball› New perspective
Incorporate new stats› New methods + common sense
Give the “numbers guys” a voice
On-Base Percentage (OBP)› Patience and discipline
Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR)› Advanced look at fielding
Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)› Quantifies luck for pitchers
Wins Above Replacement (WAR)› Measures a player’s true value
Position Old New
Hitting Batting Average On-Base Percentage
Defense Errors Ultimate Zone Rating
Pitching Earned Run Average
WHIP ((Walks + Hits)/Innings Pitched)
Overall Value
None Wins Above Replacement
All errors cannot be prevented Minimize the escalating consequences
of unpreventable errors Anticipate errors
› Don’t be caught by surprise
Most people believe defects cannot be predicted
Teams quickly stray from plans when adversity strikes› Rebuilding efforts› Financial responsibility
Teams listen too much to outside sources› Media› Fans
Record: 69-93› Last in AL East› Worst season in franchise history
Opening Day Payroll: $173,186,617› Traded $73 million of salary during season
2013 Outlook› “I know that we'll have a very strong payroll, a
large payroll… I'm confident in saying that we'll be amongst the larger payrolls in the game.”
–Ben Cherington, Red Sox GM
Tunnel vision› Stick to the budget› Keep statistical analysis above all else› Don’t listen to critics
Communicate plan with fans› Treat fans like shareholders› Convince them to buy into your plan
Don’t accept simple answers to complex questions
Drill down to find the real heart of the matter
Teams often act impulsively› “Gut” feelings
Focus on getting “a” player instead of “the” player
Whack-A-Mole mentality
Bring in only necessary players› No “second choices”
Focus on the whole team› Not just one position
Look for new ways to interpret data› Advanced stats
Revenue Sharing› Every team gets a piece of a leaguewide
pool› Teams don’t have to work to make money
Miami Marlins
TV Money› Teams receive tens of millions each year› Payments have increased exponentially
2010› Declared bankruptcy› Reached World Series
Payroll: $55,250,544 Payroll Rank: 26 out of 30
› Signed 20-year TV deal Pays $80 million annually
2012 Lost Wild Card play-in game
› Payroll: $120,510,974› Payroll Rank: 6 out of 30
Declared bankruptcy in 2011› Taken over by Major League Baseball
Purchased for $2 billion in 2012› Previous record purchase: $700 million
(Chicago Cubs, 2009) Payroll
› Start of 2012 season: $95,143,575› Current payroll: $198,314,286
TV Deal› Negotiating with Fox Sports› Rumored Deal: 25 years, $6 billion total
High reliability is the way of the future› Yankees: 1 World Series since 2000› Rays: 3 playoff appearances in last 5 years
Patience and smarts trump money Embracing HRO now is ideal
› TV money has potential to ruin baseball› Teams must be smart with added funds