Outreach & Outreach & Exponentials in a Exponentials in a

Flat World: Flat World: Extreme Extreme

CollaborationCollaborationThomas J. Greene, Outreach officerThomas J. Greene, Outreach officer

MIT CSAILMIT CSAIL

January 17, 2006January 17, 2006

WHY REACH OUT ?

WHY COLLABORATE ?

A pragmatic answer

My premise is:My premise is:The basic rules for 6 billion humans The basic rules for 6 billion humans

are different (or soon will be)are different (or soon will be)

For people in developed and (for many rapidly For people in developed and (for many rapidly developing countries) each period in the human life developing countries) each period in the human life cycle is very different:cycle is very different:

Birth:Birth: Surviving birth is not the problem Surviving birth is not the problem Education:Education: Personal, online at any timePersonal, online at any time Work:Work: Information for collaboration and 5 careers in 40 yearsInformation for collaboration and 5 careers in 40 years RecreationRecreation : :More leisure timeso entertainment is a focusMore leisure timeso entertainment is a focus Death:Death: Live 90 years, 1/3 of this in a new modelLive 90 years, 1/3 of this in a new model

GlobalizationGlobalization

Innovate without emigrateInnovate without emigrate Distance is not an issueDistance is not an issue Language is not an issueLanguage is not an issue Design can occur any where Design can occur any where

THE WORLD IS FLAT (…T. Friedman)THE WORLD IS FLAT (…T. Friedman)

What is truly new?--ITWhat is truly new?--IT

Instant CommunicationInstant CommunicationIdeas leap barriers of distance and languageIdeas leap barriers of distance and languageIdeas leap the time barrier using IT(internet,telcom,digital media)Ideas leap the time barrier using IT(internet,telcom,digital media)

Accelerated ChangeAccelerated ChangeNot print , but now ezines, blogs, virtual communities.Not print , but now ezines, blogs, virtual communities.Technology change not at automobile speed but at light speedTechnology change not at automobile speed but at light speedNetworked global sized people and information Networked global sized people and information Instant transportation(almost) and instant informationInstant transportation(almost) and instant information

Outline Outline

A reviewA review

A brief history of population changeA brief history of population change

A brief history of technology changeA brief history of technology change

What to doWhat to do

ConclusionConclusion

A Review of some ideas

Not linear- (but Not linear- (but exponentials) exponentials)

Not lines - (but “j-Not lines - (but “j-curves”)curves”) The web is 10 years old, the computer is 50 years The web is 10 years old, the computer is 50 years

old, the jet plane is 70 years old and the ocean old, the jet plane is 70 years old and the ocean liner is 100 years old.liner is 100 years old.

Technology creation has been accelerating. It is Technology creation has been accelerating. It is approaching exponential and those human approaching exponential and those human activities coupled to technology also rapidly activities coupled to technology also rapidly changing. (Exponetially?)changing. (Exponetially?)

Thomas Malthus, an 18th century English scholar, observed in an essay written in 1798 that the growth of the human Thomas Malthus, an 18th century English scholar, observed in an essay written in 1798 that the growth of the human population is fundamentally different from the growth of the food supply to feed that population. He wrote that the population is fundamentally different from the growth of the food supply to feed that population. He wrote that the human population was growing geometrically [i.e. exponentially] while the food supply was growing arithmetically [i.e. human population was growing geometrically [i.e. exponentially] while the food supply was growing arithmetically [i.e. linearly]. He concluded that left unchecked, it would only be a matter of time before the world's population would be too linearly]. He concluded that left unchecked, it would only be a matter of time before the world's population would be too large to feed itself.large to feed itself.

A ReviewA Review(we know this, but it is important here , (we know this, but it is important here ,

so let us review and ponder it )so let us review and ponder it )Consider : Consider :

Linear change F = a*x Linear change F = a*x vs. vs.

Exponential f = a**xExponential f = a**x

For example if a=2 and x=2 thenFor example if a=2 and x=2 then(F=2*3 = 6) but (f= 2**3 = 2*2*2 =8)(F=2*3 = 6) but (f= 2**3 = 2*2*2 =8)

And if a=4 and N=3 thenAnd if a=4 and N=3 then(F=4*3 = 12) but (f = 4**3 = 4*4*4 (F=4*3 = 12) but (f = 4**3 = 4*4*4

=64)=64)For bigger numbers the difference is hugeFor bigger numbers the difference is huge

Constant Linear GrowthConstant Linear Growth Start with 1 object at time zeroStart with 1 object at time zero At time 1 you have 2 At time 1 you have 2 At time 2 you have 3At time 2 you have 3 At …3 …4At …3 …4 At …4 …5At …4 …5 At …5 …6At …5 …6 At time 6 you have 7At time 6 you have 7

…1

23

t = 0 1 2 3 4

5

6

4

5

But for an exponential growth But for an exponential growth such assuch as Algae : cell divisionAlgae : cell division Geometric growthGeometric growth

…1

2 48 16

32 64

t = 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

f(x) = ax

f(x) = x

Graphically

Population Size vs. time

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Time (t)

Population Size (N)

A brief history of people (Is this a truly special time for humanity?)

Population & Time - The Population & Time - The Growth rate - Growth rate - a phase change?a phase change?

35 BCE-Julius Caesar -- 1 Million people35 BCE-Julius Caesar -- 1 Million people 2000 A.D. -- 6 Billion people2000 A.D. -- 6 Billion people

World population World population distribution-distribution-an Imbalancean ImbalanceUS&CANADA=310M (5%) ASIA=3.68B (61%)

EUROPE=729M (12%)

LATIN AMERICA=519M (9%) OCEANIA =30M (.01%)

AFRICA=784M (13%)

SOURCE - HTTP://WWW.UN.ORG/DEPTS/UNSD

An Imbalance-The world pyramidAn Imbalance-The world pyramid

SOURCE= HBR, SEPT 2002, “SERVING THE WORLD’S POOR PROFITABLY”,

By C.K. Prahalad & A. Hammond

If the world was a village of 100 people * 52 would be women, 48 would be men,30 would be children,70 would be adults.7 would be aged. * 90 would be heterosexual, 10 would be homosexual, 70 would be nonwhite, 30 would be white * 61 would be Asian, 13 African, 13 from North and South America, 12 Europeans, one from the South Pacific. * 33 would be Christians, 19 believers in Islam, 13 would be Hindus, and 6 would follow Buddhist teachings. 5 would believe that there are spirits in the trees and rocks and in all of nature. 24 would be believe in other religions, or would believe in no religion. * 17 would speak Chinese, 9 English, 8 Hindi and Urdu, 6 Spanish, 6 Russian, and 4 would speak Arabic. That would account for half the village. The other half would speak Bengal, Portuguese, Indonesian, Japanese, German, French, or some other language.

o 20 are under nourished, 1 is dying of starvation, while 15 are overweight. o Of the wealth in this village, 6 people own 59% (all of them from the United States), 74 people own 39%, and 20 people share the remaining 2%. o Of the energy of this village, 20 people consume 80%, and 80 people share the remaining 20%. o 75 people have some supply of food and a place to shelter them from the wind and the rain, but 25 do not. 17 have no clean, safe water to drink. o If you have money in the bank, then you are among the richest 8. o If you have a car, you are among the richest 7. o Among the villagers, 1 has a college education. 2 have computers. 14 cannot read. o 48 can NOT speak and act according to their faith/conscience without harassment, Imprisonment, torture or death, o 20 live in fear of death by bombardment, armed attack, landmines, or of rape or kidnapping by armed groups, In one year, 1 will die, but in the same year, 2 will be born, so at the year's end the of village will be 101.

Of the 100 people in this village,

A brief history of technology. (Is this a truly special time for humanity?)

Technology & Time - The Growth Technology & Time - The Growth raterate

3000 BCE --ABACUS3000 BCE --ABACUS 1450 -- GUTTENBERG PRESS1450 -- GUTTENBERG PRESS 1837 -- TELEGRAPH1837 -- TELEGRAPH 1876 -- TELEPHONE1876 -- TELEPHONE 1948 -- TRANSISTOR1948 -- TRANSISTOR 1994 -- WWW GOES GRAPHIC1994 -- WWW GOES GRAPHIC 2000 -- DRAFT OF HUMAN 2000 -- DRAFT OF HUMAN

GENOMEGENOME 2006 -- ?2006 -- ?

1900-20001900-2000

The cause is Information Technology (IT)…The cause is Information Technology (IT)… Ideas as information Ideas as information explodeexplode across space in zero across space in zero

time , crossing traditional cultural and language time , crossing traditional cultural and language barriersbarriers

For example, In India, help desks and now course For example, In India, help desks and now course tutors serve the english-speaking world tutors serve the english-speaking world

Information is free? Instantaneous, and global?Information is free? Instantaneous, and global?

The pressure Forcing The pressure Forcing Faster ChangeFaster Change

Information Space Information Space Change -Change -

Is it now in a Phase Is it now in a Phase Change? Change? A water molecule can exist in different phases, A water molecule can exist in different phases,

as it changes phases its world is very as it changes phases its world is very different , but only in hind-sitedifferent , but only in hind-site

Solid---->Solid----> Liquid---->Liquid----> Gas ---->?Gas ---->?

Butterfly- Network effectButterfly- Network effect

Generation Gap--Generation Gap--accelerating change effects?accelerating change effects?

"The Generation Gap at Work," studied co-existence of four different generations of workers within the U.S. workforce and frequently, within "The Generation Gap at Work," studied co-existence of four different generations of workers within the U.S. workforce and frequently, within small offices. To find a framework for understanding the gaps across generations and offered tips to manage these sometimes baffling and small offices. To find a framework for understanding the gaps across generations and offered tips to manage these sometimes baffling and tense relationships smoothly.They divided the workforce intotense relationships smoothly.They divided the workforce into

"Matures," born between 1909 and 1945;---"Matures," born between 1909 and 1945;---Matures are the silent generation. They value sacrifice, commitment, and financial and social Matures are the silent generation. They value sacrifice, commitment, and financial and social conservatism. They remember the Depression. They're the 'Establishment.'"conservatism. They remember the Depression. They're the 'Establishment.'"

"Boomers," born between 1946 and 1964"Boomers," born between 1946 and 1964 ;---"Boomers value themselves. They're competitive, anti-authority. They grew up with Vietnam, ;---"Boomers value themselves. They're competitive, anti-authority. They grew up with Vietnam, Watergate, Woodstock. They have high expectations. They're diplomatic, loyal and want validation. And they value privacy.Watergate, Woodstock. They have high expectations. They're diplomatic, loyal and want validation. And they value privacy.

"Gen Xers," born between 1965 and 1978"Gen Xers," born between 1965 and 1978 ;---"Gen Xers were the first latchkey kids. They're entrepreneurial, pragmatic, straightforward. They ;---"Gen Xers were the first latchkey kids. They're entrepreneurial, pragmatic, straightforward. They grew up with AIDS, MTV, PCs, divorce.grew up with AIDS, MTV, PCs, divorce.

"Millennials," born from 1979 onward"Millennials," born from 1979 onward .---The Millennials are neotraditionalists, optimistic and very community-centered. They're .---The Millennials are neotraditionalists, optimistic and very community-centered. They're technologically adept and busy, busy. They grew up with the O.J. Simpson trial, Columbine and 9/11. They're versatile. They write blogs technologically adept and busy, busy. They grew up with the O.J. Simpson trial, Columbine and 9/11. They're versatile. They write blogs about their lives," said Jones.about their lives," said Jones.

What this means to us is that What this means to us is that co-workers may have fundamentally different approaches to work, teamwork, privacy, respect and authority. co-workers may have fundamentally different approaches to work, teamwork, privacy, respect and authority.

SOURCE=February 2, 2005 issue of MIT Tech Talk (Volume 49, Number 16).SOURCE=February 2, 2005 issue of MIT Tech Talk (Volume 49, Number 16).

3 things are very, very different….

1.1. InformationInformationis free is free

(almost?)(almost?)

•The Web is Billions of pages,

•Search engines retrieve information instantly. (Google is now a dictionary word)?

It is only information It is only information (--(--and it is free)and it is free)

Books --3x1000 to 10x1000Books --3x1000 to 10x1000

(to 1000x1000)(to 1000x1000) The Million Book Project -CMU, China, The Million Book Project -CMU, China,

IndiaIndia

BlogsBlogs

2. 2. LanguagLanguage is not e is not

a barriera barrier

35 languages35 languages

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

3. Knowledge is easily 3. Knowledge is easily accessedaccessed..

Information + Structure = KnowledgeInformation + Structure = Knowledge

Open Course Ware @ MIT-- 1200 coursesOpen Course Ware @ MIT-- 1200 courses--on-line --free!--on-line --free!

The OCW project has been empowering The OCW project has been empowering students of all ages, world-wide, with students of all ages, world-wide, with the courses of MIT.the courses of MIT.

(Other Universities are joining this effort (Other Universities are joining this effort and publishing their courses)and publishing their courses)

Open research?Open research?

Project Dspace is spreading-- Project Dspace is spreading--

The flat worldThe flat worldis covered with is covered with a tightly woven information fabric.

An incident anywhere on the planet can effect everything.

Incidents may be:•Economic•Political•Agricultural•Ecological, etc.

What to do….

The Network is the Value-Delivery System

Collaborative Business

Processes

Wisdom Wisdom enough…enough…

Upon this gifted age, in its dark hour,Upon this gifted age, in its dark hour,Rains from the sky a meteoric showerRains from the sky a meteoric showerOf facts … they lie unquestioned , uncombined.Of facts … they lie unquestioned , uncombined.

Wisdom enough to leech us all our illWisdom enough to leech us all our illIs daily spun,but there exists no loomIs daily spun,but there exists no loomTo weave it into fabric - To weave it into fabric -

------Edna St Vincent Millay, ( Edna St Vincent Millay, ( 1892-1950 )1892-1950 )

The ChallengesThe Challenges

Extreme competitionExtreme competition

GlobalizationGlobalization

Rapidly changing technologiesRapidly changing technologies

Forces beyond your control (world events are now Forces beyond your control (world events are now directly coupled to your activity)directly coupled to your activity)

A New Model?-- A New Model?-- ((Business Week -- China Business Week -- China

& India)& India)

Extreme competitionExtreme competition

Established companies should brace themselves for a future of Established companies should brace themselves for a future of extreme competition, which will make the pressures of the 1980s extreme competition, which will make the pressures of the 1980s and 1990s look tame by comparison. Incumbents must understand and 1990s look tame by comparison. Incumbents must understand how powerful forces are aggregating once-distinct product and how powerful forces are aggregating once-distinct product and geographic markets, enhancing market-clearing efficiency, and geographic markets, enhancing market-clearing efficiency, and increasing specialization in the supply chain. They should respond increasing specialization in the supply chain. They should respond by adopting a new approach to strategy—one that combines speed, by adopting a new approach to strategy—one that combines speed, openness, flexibility, and forward-focused thinking.openness, flexibility, and forward-focused thinking.

Mature companies must learn to be young at heart. Boundless new Mature companies must learn to be young at heart. Boundless new opportunities await executives who recognize that the days of slow opportunities await executives who recognize that the days of slow change are overchange are over

SOURCE: Mckinsey Quarterly, 23 May 2005 SOURCE: Mckinsey Quarterly, 23 May 2005 http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_abstract.aspx?ar=1564&L2=21&L3=114http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_abstract.aspx?ar=1564&L2=21&L3=114

Asia’s edgeAsia’s edge

New Economy -No New Economy -No Borders?Borders?

A turning point ….

SCIAM SCIAM

Scientific American -Scientific American -Sept. 2005Sept. 2005

Economics in a Full World

The global economy is now so large that society can no longer safely pretend it operates within a limitless ecosystem. Developing an economy that can be sustained within the finite biosphere requires new ways of thinking ------- By Herman E. Daly

Perhaps we now have the Perhaps we now have the second major enabling second major enabling

transform?transform? WorkWork andand Food,clothing, etc.Food,clothing, etc.

==>==>

MONEY -MONEY -Economics?Economics?

CompetitionCompetition

Instant communication and Instant communication and TextText

andand Pictures, sound, etc.Pictures, sound, etc.

==>==>

BITS -BITS -A Distribution of wealth?A Distribution of wealth?

Collaboration?Collaboration?

A turning point ….

Extreme collaboration?Extreme collaboration?

Established companies should brace themselves for a transformation of Established companies should brace themselves for a transformation of collaboration with competitors?collaboration with competitors?

In a Global EconomyIn a Global Economy

Where profits can be made by many people who think outside the box.Where profits can be made by many people who think outside the box.

Some boxes to avoidSome boxes to avoid

Sell only to the rich or rich countriesSell only to the rich or rich countries

Innovation occurs only in developed countries,( or in a western language)Innovation occurs only in developed countries,( or in a western language)

An Imbalance-The world An Imbalance-The world pyramidpyramid

SOURCE= HBR, SEPT 2002, “SERVING THE WORLD’S POOR PROFITABLY”,

By C.K. Prahalad & A. Hammond

New Rules are here nowNew Rules are here now

Old rulesOld rules People - 1 job for a People - 1 job for a

lifetimelifetime Government- make Government- make

decisions in private, decisions in private, explain them muchlaterexplain them muchlater

Compete and Compete and monopolizemonopolize

(sell a little for a lot)(sell a little for a lot)

New rulesNew rules 5 jobs per 40 years5 jobs per 40 years The whole world is The whole world is

watchingwatching Collaborate and reach Collaborate and reach

outout (sell lots for a little)(sell lots for a little)

WHY REACH OUT ?

WHY COLLABORATE ?

WHY NOT?

Conclusion

Globalized Information Technology may soon mean:Commerce works by selling lots of items to everyone, (design and build it

very well, and get rich!)Government works by assuming everyone knows what you are doing, ( so

get it right the first time)Education works by people finding their passion and learning about it (so

learn to learn) (for 5 careers?) This all can work by Globalized reaching out andGlobalized collaborating for personal gain…

Solve the problem quickly, Because you leave no genius behind!

“…your permanent address is tomorrow…” -ee.cummnings

A boy born in Cambridge Mass once wrote: