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Outlook for wine and wine grapes
Dr. Caroline Gunning-Trant
Economist
ABARE
Industry observations
• low prices
• cancellation / non-renewal of contracts
• Wine Restructure Action Agenda (WRAA)
Export Dependence1998-99 2008-09
Exports64%
Exports38%
Domestic62%
Domestic36%
Total sales: 564 million litres Total sales: 1,180 million litres
Major Export Markets
100
200
300
USA UK Canada Other
2007-08
2008-09
MillionLitres
Bulk
Exports by price category
200
400
600
800
2000-01 2004-05 2008-09
Million Litres
Basic (≤$2.49)
Popular Premium($2.50-$4.99)
Premium ($5.00-$7.49)
Super Premium($7.50-$9.99)
Speciality(≥$10.00)
62%
76%
85%
Australian Wine Exports
1000
2000
3000
4000
2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15
Millions$ and L
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009-10
$/L
Volume
Value
Unit value
200
400
600
800
2002-03 2005-06 2008-09 2011-12 2014-15
Million Litres
15
20
25
L/person
Domestic Wine Consumption
Domestic
Litres per person
Imports
AssumptionsTHIS VINTAGE:• heat wave in November • reduced data availability from ABS
- sample only
- only 10 major varieties
- multipurpose grapes excluded
• no assumption about grubbings
FUTURE VINTAGES• average yields• no extreme weather events• national bearing area to decline from 2013-14
600
1200
1800
2400
2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15
'000
tonnes
300
600
900
1200
2009-10
$/tonne
Production
Average value
Wine Grape Production
Summary
• continued decline of wine grape prices
• pressure on wine grape growers given price expectations
• speed and extent of industry restructure unknown
• world markets
End_title slide
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09
2009-10
Million $
Other
France
New Zealand
Australian wine imports