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LUIS TORRESRESEARCH ECONOMIST
WESLEY MILLERRESEARCH ASSOCIATE
T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T
2 0 4 6
Outlook for theTexas Economy
PAIGE WOODSONRESEARCH INTERN
FEBRUARY 2019 DATA
About this Report ................................................................................................................................. 3
February 2019 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 4
Economic Activity ................................................................................................................................. 8
Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index ................................................................................. 8
Major Metros Business Cycle Index .................................................................................................. 8
Consumer Confidence Index ............................................................................................................. 9
Financial Activity .................................................................................................................................. 9
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield .............................................................................. 9
Texas Mortgage Applications .......................................................................................................... 10
Housing ............................................................................................................................................... 10
Housing Sales .................................................................................................................................. 10
Residential Construction Coincident Indicator ............................................................................... 11
Energy ................................................................................................................................................. 11
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices .................................................................................................... 11
Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count ................................................................................. 12
Employment ....................................................................................................................................... 12
Labor Force Participation Rate ....................................................................................................... 12
Unemployment Rate ....................................................................................................................... 13
Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications ................................................................... 13
Major Metros Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................... 14
Real Personal Income Per Capita .................................................................................................... 14
Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ......................................................................................... 15
Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ................................................................. 15
Employment Growth Rate .............................................................................................................. 16
Major Metros Employment Growth Rate ....................................................................................... 16
Manufacturing .................................................................................................................................... 17
Manufacturing Employment ........................................................................................................... 17
Major Metros Manufacturing Employment ................................................................................... 17
Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ..................................................................................... 18
Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings .............................................................. 18
Manufacturing Outlook Survey ....................................................................................................... 19
2
Construction ....................................................................................................................................... 19
Texas Construction Values .............................................................................................................. 19
Major Metros Total Construction Values ....................................................................................... 20
Construction Employment .............................................................................................................. 20
Construction Employee Hourly Earnings ........................................................................................ 21
Services ............................................................................................................................................... 21
Services Sector Outlook Survey ...................................................................................................... 21
CPI Inflation Rates ........................................................................................................................... 22
Trade ................................................................................................................................................... 23
Exports (All Commodities) .............................................................................................................. 23
Manufacturing Exports ................................................................................................................... 23
Crude Oil Exports ............................................................................................................................ 24
Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar ...................................................................................... 24
Texas Exports by Country................................................................................................................ 25
3
About this Report
Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Outlook for the Texas Economy summarizes significant state economic activity and trends. All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.
This publication is designed to be a one-stop resource for economic indicators. We hope you find them as useful as we do. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to [email protected].
Dr. Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Woodson
Data current as of April 5, 2019
© 2019, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.
4
February 2019 Summary1
Economic activity moderated but remained positive as Texas enters the ninth year of the business-cycle expansion. Payroll employment grew at a steady pace despite historically low unemployment. Headline wage numbers, however, remained sluggish despite labor-market tightness and decreased inflationary pressure. Energy prices stabilized after a recent bout of volatility, and crude oil production and exports held firm. Texas exports continued to flourish as products shifted from China to other economic partners, but the ongoing dispute between the world’s two largest economies could contribute to waning global activity. Political tension and gridlock in Washington added to the current state of uncertainty.
The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business-Cycle Index slowed to 3.8 growth on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), the slowest in over a year but continued to press forward. At the metropolitan level, much of the deceleration occurred in Fort Worth as employment weakened and pulled the business-cycle index below 1.1 percent SAAR. The index, however, accelerated to 4.6 and 5.6 percent, respectively, in Austin and Dallas. Houston’s index picked up from 2.4 to 2.9 percent, the same growth rate as in San Antonio.
The Texas Leading Economic Index (a measure of future directional changes in the business cycle) inched forward amid labor-market strength and stable crude oil production. Some signs of weakness in national economic data, however, suggest slower growth over the next year. Texans remained cautiously optimistic after the sharp drop in oil prices last fall. The Texas Consumer Confidence Index inched forward but remained below the October 2018 peak.
Softer economic data, particularly in February’s U.S. employment report, decreased inflation expectations and weighed on interest rates. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell to an annual low of less than 2.7 percent, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate dropped to 4.4 percent. Texans capitalized on lower rates, pushing mortgage applications for home purchases up 11.2 percent in the first two months of 2019. Refinance mortgage applications, which are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, increased 20.2 percent year to date.
Texas housing sales increased 5.2 percent amid lower mortgage rates and decreased price pressure. Current residential construction activity, measured by the Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, inched downward as construction wages and employment calmed after a year of strong growth. The outlook, however, remained stable as indicated by upticks in the Texas Residential Construction Leading Index. Lower interest rates and the extended economic expansion bolstered the industry outlook. (For additional housing commentary and statistics, see Texas Housing Insight at recenter.tamu.edu.)
The average West Texas intermediate crude oil spot price rebounded above $54 per barrel after four consecutive monthly declines. OPEC production cuts and oilfield disruptions in Nigeria and
1 All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.
5
Libya supported higher prices despite soft economic data at the national level. Texas production balanced around a record-high 4.8 million barrels per day in January while the active rig count inched down to 5122. Additional pipeline capacity relieved bottlenecks in West Texas, but anticipated supply growth could quickly diminish the impact. On the natural gas front, the Henry Hub spot price ticked above $3 per million British thermal units after a sharp drop in January. A warmer-than-usual winter, however, maintained downward pricing pressure.
Texas added 17,700 nonfarm jobs in February, in comparison to 20,000 net jobs created nationally. Employment growth held around 1.8 percent on a SAAR, persisting above the Dallas Fed’s 1.5 percent 2019 growth projection but notably lower than last year’s levels. Skilled-labor shortages hindered additional hiring throughout the state. The unemployment rate held below 3.9 percent despite labor force participation ticking upward for the first time since September, reaching 64 percent. Initial unemployment insurance claims fell for the second straight month, corroborating labor-market tightness. The major metros maintained even less slack with unemployment rates falling across the board. Some of the decline, however, may be payback after the federal government shutdown inflated unemployment reporting in January. Austin maintained the lowest unemployment rate at 3.0 percent, followed by San Antonio at 3.4 percent. North Texas was not far behind with 3.6 and 3.7 percent unemployment in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. Houston unemployment held above the state level at 4.2 percent but could inch downward if oil prices continue to stabilize.
Despite prolonged labor shortages, Texas’ real income per capita rose just 1.8 percent in 2018, ranking 27th nationally in terms of annual growth. The increase, however, was notably better than each of the past three years. The state’s strongest contributors to income growth were oil and gas extraction, construction, and professional/scientific/technical services industries.
Contemporaneous data suggest a continuation of tepid growth in the first two months of 2019. Texas’ real private hourly earnings remained tame at 1.3 percent growth year over year (YOY). Dallas wages increased 5.1 percent YOY, reaching $30.15 per hour in nominal terms. Fort Worth ($26.56) and Houston ($27.96) maintained modest growth at 1.8 and 0.9 percent YOY, respectively. Austin hourly earnings edged below $29.25, contracting 1.1 percent YOY. On the other hand, growth accelerated to 3.1 percent in San Antonio, elevating nominal wages to a record high $24.22 per hour. Softer inflationary pressure improved purchasing power across the state.
Dallas led the state in hiring with 11,600 newly created jobs, the largest increase since 2016. Most of the growth occurred in the professional/business services, leisure/hospitality, and trade/transportation/utilities industries. Houston added a record number of manufacturing jobs at 4,825, lifting the total monthly employment increase to 9,100. Growth in Austin’s public sector as well as professional/business services pushed employment growth into positive territory after faltering in January. In San Antonio, construction employment gains reached a record of high more
2 The release of Texas crude oil production typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month.
6
than 1,160 as single-family housing construction accelerated over the past quarter. Fort Worth was the exception where broad-based industry declines contracted employment figures for the second consecutive month. The largest losses occurred in construction and leisure/hospitality jobs. The metro recovered all of January’s lost transportation jobs, which may have been negatively affected by the government shutdown, but durable-goods manufacturing shed an additional 390 jobs.
Texas’ goods-producing sector as a whole added just 800 jobs, but data revisions revealed 2,800 lost jobs in January instead of the 5,100 originally reported. Manufacturing employment offset last month’s decline with 1,400 new jobs, all of which occurred in the nondurable-goods subsector. Recent weakness, however, held hourly manufacturing earnings slightly negative YOY after accounting for inflation. Real hourly industry earnings decreased YOY in all of the major metros. Fort Worth was the exception where earnings-per-hour jumped 5.1 percent YOY in real terms after a steady four-year slide. These fluctuations, however, may be sensitive to short-term changes in how employees contracted by the federal government were measured during the temporary shutdown. In the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Outlook Survey, more than a fifth of respondents expanded payroll employment, and 30.1 percent paid higher wages and benefits. Production and capacity use slowed as manufacturers adjusted to waning global growth. U.S.-China trade tensions remained the primary concern across multiple subsectors.
Hiring was mixed in the remaining goods-producing sectors. Energy employment contracted for the first time since November 2016, while the construction industry recovered 500 of the 2,800 jobs shed in January. Real hourly construction earnings dipped negative YOY after substantial growth in the first half of 2018. Total construction values, however, ticked up as the residential sector stabilized following a five-month slide. Apartment construction picked up in Austin, DFW, and Houston amid solid population growth and shifting preferences toward higher-density housing. In the nonresidential sector, declines in office/bank building offset an acceleration in warehouse investment.
Texas’ service-providing sector created 16,900 positions, maintaining steady growth after stalling in 4Q2018. Leisure and hospitality rebounded with 5,500 new jobs, accounting for 31 percent of the aggregate monthly increase. Accommodation/food services and finance/insurance employment added 4,300 and 4,100 jobs, respectively. On the other hand, the transportation/warehousing/utilities subsector continued to struggle, shedding 4,200 jobs over the past three months. The Dallas Fed’s Service Sector Outlook Survey corroborated industry strength with nearly a third of respondents noting higher revenues, and the employment indices accelerated. The survey, however, reported increased pricing pressure in both wages and inputs, contrasting hard inflation data.
Lower energy prices slowed the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 1.5 percent YOY, its weakest increase since 2016. Core inflation held slightly above the 2 percent benchmark but trended downward, particularly due to lower price tags on new vehicles and prescription drugs. A sharp drop in transportation costs (e.g., airline fares and auto insurance) pulled the Houston CPI below 1 percent YOY growth. Moderations in home-price appreciation also relaxed inflationary pressures.
7
Despite the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute, Texas’ real commodity exports3 grew 4.5 percent in January, accounting for 20 percent of the national total. Manufacturing exports, specifically, increased 5.7 percent in real terms, driven by computer/electronic products and electrical equipment/appliances and components. Crude oil exports reached record highs amid surging shipments to South Korea, Taiwan, and Canada. Petroleum exports, however, fell for the third consecutive month.
Fluctuations in trade relations altered Texas’ national export distribution. Mexico remained the primary trade partner and received a third of Texas’ outgoing shipments, followed by Canada at 8.2 percent. The Netherlands ranked third at 4.5 percent, followed by South Korea and Japan. China’s share dropped to 2.6 percent, the lowest since 2003 after it had been recently admitted to the World Trade Organization.
3 Trade data for February are unavailable due to the government shutdown.
8
Economic Activity
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
100
110
120
130
140
150
160Ja
n-07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Business Cycle IndexLeading Index (Right Axis)
-13.0
-8.0
-3.0
2.0
7.0
12.0
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Business Cycle Index (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index (Index Jan 2007 = 100)
9
Consumer Confidence Index (Index Jan 2011 = 100)
Note: Trend-cycle Component. Source: Conference Board
Financial Activity
Note: Seasonally adjusted. Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Texas
United States
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Mortgage Bond
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield (Percent)
10
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Housing
Note: Trend-cycle component. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information, see Housing Sales. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Refinance Purchase
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States Texas
Housing Sales (Index Jan 2007 = 100)
Texas Mortgage Applications (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)
11
Note: Trend-cycle component. Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Energy
Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration received from Thomson Reuters
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
TX Coincident Index US Coincident Index TX Leading Index
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Crude Oil
Natural Gas(Right Axis)
Residential Construction Coincident Indicator (Index Jan 2007 = 100)
$/Barrel Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
($) $/million BTU
12
Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count. Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration
Employment
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Production of Crude Oil (Right Axis)Number of Operating Rigs
62
63
64
65
66
67
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States Texas
Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count (Count)
(Number of rigs) (Millions of barrels per day)
Labor Force Participation Rate (Percent)
13
Note: Seasonally adjusted. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications. Source: Department of Labor
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States
Texas
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States
Texas
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)
14
Major Metros Unemployment Rate
(Percent)
Note: Seasonally adjusted. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Annual Average. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9Ja
n-07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-Baytown-Sugar LandSan Antonio
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
United States Texas
Real Personal Income Per Capita (Annual Percentage Change)
15
Notes: Inflation adjusted. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Notes: Inflation adjusted. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-
08
Aug-
08
Mar
-09
Oct
-09
May
-10
Dec-
10
Jul-1
1
Feb-
12
Sep-
12
Apr-
13
Nov
-13
Jun-
14
Jan-
15
Aug-
15
Mar
-16
Oct
-16
May
-17
Dec-
17
Jul-1
8
Feb-
19
United States
Texas
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-
08
Aug-
08
Mar
-09
Oct
-09
May
-10
Dec-
10
Jul-1
1
Feb-
12
Sep-
12
Apr-
13
Nov
-13
Jun-
14
Jan-
15
Aug-
15
Mar
-16
Oct
-16
May
-17
Dec-
17
Jul-1
8
Feb-
19
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels
Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)
Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)
16
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States Texas
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)
Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)
17
Manufacturing
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8Ja
n-07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States
Texas
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land
San Antonio
Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
Major Metros Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
18
Notes: Inflation adjusted. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Notes: Inflation adjusted. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistic
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States
Texas
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston–The Woodlands–Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels
Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)
Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)
19
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas index
Construction
Note: Inflation adjusted trend-cycle component. Source: Dodge Analytics
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States Texas
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Total
Residential
Non-residential
Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Index)
Texas Construction Values (Index Jan 2007 = 100)
20
Note: Inflation adjusted trend-cycle component. Source: Dodge Analytics
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19United States Texas
Construction Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
Major Metros Total Construction Values (Index Jan 2007 = 100)
21
Notes: Inflation adjusted. February 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Services
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Services Sector Outlook Survey. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas index.
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Jan-
08
Dec-
08
Nov
-09
Oct
-10
Sep-
11
Aug-
12
Jul-1
3
Jun-
14
May
-15
Apr-
16
Mar
-17
Feb-
18
Jan-
19
United States Texas
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States Texas
Construction Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)
Services Sector Outlook Survey (Index)
22
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see CPI Inflation Rates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: The Houston CPI is composed of the following major groups: Food and Beverages, Housing, Apparel, Transportation, Medical Care, Recreation, Education and Communication, and Other Goods and Services. The four major components are included in the graph above. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States Houston
-10
-7
-4
-1
2
5
8
11
14
17
Feb-
11
Oct
-11
Jun-
12
Feb-
13
Oct
-13
Jun-
14
Feb-
15
Oct
-15
Jun-
16
Feb-
17
Oct
-17
Jun-
18
Feb-
19
Food and Beverages Housing
Transportation Medical
CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) (Year-over-Year Percent Change)
CPI Inflation Rates (Year-over-Year Percent Change)
23
Trade
Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Exports. February data are unavailable due to the government shutdown. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division and U.S. Census Bureau
Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Manufacturing Exports. February data are unavailable due to the government shutdown. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division and U.S. Census Bureau
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Ja
n-07
Oct
-07
Jul-0
8
Apr-
09
Jan-
10
Oct
-10
Jul-1
1
Apr-
12
Jan-
13
Oct
-13
Jul-1
4
Apr-
15
Jan-
16
Oct
-16
Jul-1
7
Apr-
18
Jan-
19
United States Texas
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-
07
Oct
-07
Jul-0
8
Apr-
09
Jan-
10
Oct
-10
Jul-1
1
Apr-
12
Jan-
13
Oct
-13
Jul-1
4
Apr-
15
Jan-
16
Oct
-16
Jul-1
7
Apr-
18
Jan-
19
United States
Texas
Exports (All Commodities) (Year-over-Year Percent Change)
Manufacturing Exports (Year-over-Year Percent Change)
24
Note: Inflation adjusted and detrended with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Crude Oil Exports. February data are unavailable due to the government shutdown. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division and U.S. Census Bureau
Note: For more information, see Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Dec-
15
Feb-
16
Apr-
16
Jun-
16
Aug-
16
Oct
-16
Dec-
16
Feb-
17
Apr-
17
Jun-
17
Aug-
17
Oct
-17
Dec-
17
Feb-
18
Apr-
18
Jun-
18
Aug-
18
Oct
-18
Dec-
18
Texas
United States
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-
07
Sep-
07
May
-08
Jan-
09
Sep-
09
May
-10
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
May
-12
Jan-
13
Sep-
13
May
-14
Jan-
15
Sep-
15
May
-16
Jan-
17
Sep-
17
May
-18
Jan-
19
United States Texas
Crude Oil Exports (Index Dec 2015 = 100)
Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar (Index Jan 2007 = 100)
25
Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Exports. February data are unavailable due to the government shutdown. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division and U.S. Census Bureau
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-
02
Jun-
03
Nov
-04
Apr-
06
Sep-
07
Feb-
09
Jul-1
0
Dec-
11
May
-13
Oct
-14
Mar
-16
Aug-
17
Jan-
19
Brazil Canada China Netherlands Mexico (Right axis)
Texas Exports by Country (Percent)
i
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MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL
Texas A&M University 2115 TAMU
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DIRECTOR
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TROY ALLEY, JR. DeSoto
RUSSELL CAIN Port Lavaca
JJ CLEMENCE Sugar Land
ALVIN COLLINS Andrews
DOUG JENNINGS, CHAIRMAN Fort Worth
BESA MARTIN, VICE CHAIRMAN Boerne
TED NELSON HoustonDOUG ROBERTS AustinC. CLARK WELDER FredericksburgJAN FITE-MILLER, EX-OFFICIO Dallas
