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OUTLOOK FOR LATVIA
ENERGY, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen
Janis RekisLatvian Investment and
Development Agency
•GHG emissions•Energy consumption•Outlook
GHG emissions
Latvian GHG emissions trend by gas excluding LUCF, Gg & %
77%73%
69% 69% 69%
12% 18%21% 20% 20%
11% 9% 10% 11% 11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1996 2000 2001 2002
22181
91376980 7409 7333
3588
2238
2089 2185 2165
3088
1110
10361165 1142
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1990 1996 2000 2001 2002
N2O
CH4
CO2
Latvian GHG emission trend by sector gases excluding LUCF , Gg & %
77% 77%72% 72% 71%
2% 1%
2% 2% 2%
18%14%
15% 15% 15%
0%
1%1% 1% 1%
3%7%
11% 11% 11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1996 2000 2001 2002
22269
95547274 7714 7599
499
152
163 168 177
5161
1795
1497 1635 1617
106
70
86101 108
823
915
10861142 1140
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1990 1996 2000 2001 2002
Waste
Solvent and Other Product Use
Agriculture
Industrial Processes
Energy
GHG emission trend in energy sector by sub sector and gas , Gg & %
21577
8921
6729 7136 7017
486
498
418433 434
206
135
128145 148
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1990 1996 2000 2001 2002
N2O
CH4
CO2
10218
43972702 2624 2493
1669
1203
1013 887 930
4733
2184
2304 2711 2717
5375
1560
1089 1329 1290
274
211
167162 169
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1990 1996 2000 2001 2002
1.B. Fugitive Emissions fromFuels1.A.4. Other Sectors
1.A.3. Transport
1.A.2. Manufacturing Industriesand Construction 1.A.1. Energy Industries
Energy consumption
GDP, GEC (TPES) and GHG indexesIndexes of energy and GHG intensities
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
19
90
=1
GDP
Energy Intensity
GEC
GHG Intensity
GHG
Gross energy consumption (GEC), PJ & %
4% 2% 2% 2%2%
1% 1% 1%
43%
32% 31% 30%
18%
26% 29% 29%
24%28% 29% 29%
9% 10% 9% 9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 2000 2001 2002
Natural Gas Fuelwood Electricity
7 3 4 33
2 1 1
86
56 56 55
37
46 53 54
47
4953 54
18
17
17 17
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1996 2000 2001 2002
Coal & Coke Peat Oil Products & Shale oil
Structure of GEC in 2002, %
Fuelwood29.1%
Other34.5%
Peat0.5%
Hydro&Wind4.8%
Imported Electricity
4.6%
Coal & Coke1.7%
Oil Products & Shale oil29.9%
Natural Gas29.3%
Local energy sources
RES share in GEC and RES-E share in gross electricity consumption
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
RE
S,
RE
S-E
, R
ES
-E l
arg
e H
ES
0.0%
0.3%
0.6%
0.9%
1.2%
1.5%
1.8%
2.1%
Sm
all RE
S-E
RES-E CHP in gross electricity consumptionRES-E WPP in gross electricity consumptionRES-E small HPP in gross electricity consumptionRES-E in gross electricity consumptionRES-E large HPP in gross electricity consumptionRES in GEC
Energy consumption in transformation, PJ
- - - - - - - 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3
2.4 2.3 1.6 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.9
0.5 0.5
0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
15.1
6.2 6.7 7.7 3.7
2.2 2.4
19.0
15.8
14.4
9.7
4.5 2.9 2.3
10.0
20.6
16.2 15.4
16.3 20.8 21.4
8.8
8.1 11.1
11.3
14.2
14.3
12.6
-
-
- -
-
0.2 0.7
7.8
9.9 9.3
9.2
8.3 9.1
10.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
CHP Heat Plants
Transformation Sector
Fuelwood
Natural Gas
Oil Products & Shale oil
Peat
Coal & Coke
Consumption of DH, PJ
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Heat
FC
Agriculture
Commerce and Public Service
Industry Sector
Residential
Final Energy Consumption, PJ & %
40% 39% 39% 39%
21% 22%25% 24%
23% 20%18% 18%
13% 17% 15% 17%
4% 3% 3% 2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 2000 2001 2002Commerce and Public Service Agriculture
6755 61 61
35
32
38 38
39
29
29 29
22
24
24 27
6
4
4 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1996 2000 2001 2002
Residential Transport Sector Industry Sector
Final Energy Consumption, PJ & %
3% 2% 2% 2%0% 0% 0% 0%
30% 32% 32% 32%
9% 10% 10% 12%
23%28% 28% 27%
9%
11% 11% 11%
25%17% 17% 17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 2000 2001 2002Natural Gas Fuelwood Electricity Heat
5 3 3 30 0 0 0
5046 51 50
16
1416 19
40
41
43 43
1616
16 18
42
25
26 26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1996 2000 2001 2002
Coal & Coke Peat Oil Products & Shale oil
Fuel prices, US$(1994)/MWh
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Wood Exported
Peat Exported
Natural Gas Imported
Heavy oil Imported
Coal Imported
Forest density in administrative regions
Scenarios
GHG emission forecast according3rd National Communication, Gg
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
BS - Waste
BS - Agriculture
BS - Solvent and Other Product Use
BS - Industrial Processes
BS - Energy
Scenrio with measures - Total GHGemissions
Kyoto target
Forecast
???
Forecast of GDP
6791
3613 46
73
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
mill
ion
US
$(19
94)
at average prices of1994, mill. US$
Slow developmentscenario (2003)
EU(15) average level in2000
EU(15) average level(2001)
Fast convergencescenario (2001)
Convergence scenario(2001)
MARKAL
Stagnation scenario(2001)
Divergence scenario(2001)
CO2 emissions in energy sector, Ggdifferent growth rates for useful energy demand
Annual growth of (1999-2034)Scenario DM1 DM2 DM4 DM6
Useful energy demand 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.1%
Electricity consumption 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 3.8%
Gross energy consumption in DM2, PJ
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
Energy efficiency
Electricity import
HPP & WPP
Fuel wood
Natural Gas
Oil Products & Shale oil
Peat
Coal & Coke
Final energy consumption in DM2, PJ
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
Energy efficiency
Electricity
DH
Fuel wood
Natural Gas
Oil Products & Shale oil
Peat
Coal & Coke
Required additional RES-E, TWh with RES-E target 49.3%
0
2
4
6
8
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
DM6
DM4
DM2
DM1
CO2 reduction, Ggwith RES-E target 49.3%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
DM6
DM4
DM2
DM1
CO2 in energy sector in DM2 case, Gg (1)with CO2 emission constraint
Allowed cumulative CO2 emissions in energy sector for 45 years
(1992-2036), Gg
without constraint
+30% above stabilization 412542
+15% above stabilization 375896
stabilization in level 2000 after 2001 339250
CO2 emissions from energy sector, Gg (2) with CO2 emission constraint
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
DET...
DET+30%
DET+15%
DET 0%
DET... 11669 7319 7807 8999 9576 10525 11603 12891 14395
DET+30% 11669 7319 7538 8445 8692 9234 9863 10069 9679
DET+15% 11669 7319 7492 7905 8133 8457 8302 7778 8125
DET 0% 11669 7319 7462 7260 6832 6821 6866 6758 6863
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
CO2 emissions from energy sector, Gg (3)deterministic cases vs. stochastic cases
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
DET...
DET+30%
DET+15%
DET 0%
STOCH...
STOCH+30%
STOCH+15%
STOCH 0%