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Outline:
•Why agents wish to hold money
•The portfolio choice
•The demand for money
•Changes in the demand for money
•Bond prices and yields—why they move inversely
•The supply of money
•Equilibrium in the money market
•How the money market reaches equilibrium.
•Effects of FED open market operations.
•To make transactions
•To be prepared for contingencies—accidents, lawsuits, e.g.
•To store wealth—as an alternative to bonds, equities, jewelry, farmland, etc.
The Portfolio Decision: Money or Bonds?
•Bonds yield interest; money does not.
•The opportunity cost of holding money is given by the interest that could have been earned by holding bonds.
“Interest is the reward for parting with liquidity.”
The Demand for Money (MD)
The demand for money (MD) depends on:
•The nominal interest rate
•The price level
•Real GDP
•Financial technology
MD is positively related to the price level and real GDP, ceteris paribus. Also,
MD is inversely related to the nominal interest
rate, ceteris paribus.
Nominal Interest Rate (%)
Money($Trillions)
0
MD
E
F3%
6%
1.0 1.2
Demand for Money •As we move along MD, the
price level and real GDP are held constant.
•The movement from point E to F is a change in the demand for money as a store of value in reaction to a decrease in the yield of bonds.
Nom
inal
In
tere
st R
ate
(%)
Money($Trillions)
0
MD1
E
F3%
6%
1.0 1.2
Effect of a Change in Price Level (P) or Real GDP (Y)
MD2
1.12 1.5
MD1 MD2
•Increase in P, ceteris paribus.
•Increase in Y, ceteris paribusG
H
Bond Prices and the Rate Of Interest
Bond prices and interest rates (or
yields), move inversely
Suppose you paid $800 for a bond that promises to pay $1,000 to its holder one year from today. What is the interest rate or percentage yield of the bond? Notice first that your interest income would be equal to $200. Hence to compute the yield, use the following equation:
Yield (%) = (interest income/price of the bond) 100
Thus, we have:
Yield (%) = (200/800) 100 = 25 percent
Now suppose, instead of paying $800 for the bond, you paid $900. What is the yield now?
Yield (%) = (100/900) 100 = 11 percent
•The supply of money schedule reveals the stock of money available to satisfy the demand for money at various nominal interest rates.
•We assume the supply of money is determined by the Federal Reserve system or the FED.
•The FED can change the money supply by adjusting reserve requirements, the discount rate, or by open market operations.
Money($Trillions)
0
3%
6%
1.0 1.2
Supply of Money (MS)
J
E
MS1 MS2 Ms1 Ms
2
•Decrease of the required reserve ratio
• Decrease of discount rate
•Open market purchase of government securitiesN
omin
al I
nte
rest
Rat
e (%
)
Money($Trillions)
0
3%
6%
1.0 1.04
Equilibrium in the Money market
E
MS
MD
7%
0.9
•When r = 7%, MS > MD by $100 billion.
•When r = 3%, MD > MS by $400 billion.
•When r = 6%, MS = MD
Nom
inal
In
tere
st R
ate
(%)
When there is an excess supply of money in the economy, there is also an excess demand for bonds
Interest rate higher than
equilibrium
Excess supply of
money
Excess demandforbonds
Publicbuys bonds
Price of bonds rises
Money($Billions)
0
MS1 MS2
MD
E
F
6%
4%
1.0 1.02
FED open market purchases bid up the prices of bonds, and drive yields down.
Open Market Operations and the Money Market
Nom
inal
In
tere
st R
ate
(%)
Money($Trillions)
0
MS0 MS1
MD
E
F
8%
6%
0.9 1.0
Nom
inal
In
tere
st R
ate
(%) FED open
market sales depress bond prices, and drives yields upward.
Fed “Pulls the String”