Outline

NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) and ROMS Applications in NOS Operational

Forecast Systems

Aijun Zhang1, Mark Vincent2, Frank Aikman3

Eugene Wei3 , Richard A. Schmalz, Jr.3 , Lyon Lanerolle3

1 Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS), National Ocean Service/NOAA2 Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/NOAA3 Coast Survey Development Laboratory, National Ocean Service/NOAA

April 6, 2010

Outline

• What and how NOAA does coastal operational forecast systems

• Some examples of ROMS applications• Challenges and wish list

NOS Oceanographic Forecast Systems Requirements

Primary Mission:Support of safe & efficient navigation

• Water levels for under-keel clearance• Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability

Emergency response (provide circulation, T, S etc. fundamental information)

• HAZMAT• Search & Rescue• Homeland Security

For environmentally sound management of the coastal zone

• Ecosystem applications• Marine geospatial applications Salinity

SST

Great Lakes(Mar. 2006)

New York Harbor (Feb. 2003)

Delaware Delaware BayBay

St. Johns River (Oct. 2005)

Galveston Bay (Jun. 2004)

Chesapeake Bay (Aug. 2001)

Gulf of Mexico

Tampa Bay

Cook Inlet

San Francisco

Columbia River

New NOS OFS Strategy

• Global/Basin Model from Navy and NWS/NOAA (e.g. NCOM, HYCOM, RTOFS, etc.)

• Shelf models to fill gaps between global/basin model and coastal/estuarine model (Gulf of Mexico Shelf, West Coast Shelf, East Coast Shelf, etc.) , provide better boundary conditions for coastal/Estuarine models

• Coastal/Estuarine model nested with Shelf models

FY 2010 – 2015 Development and Implementation Schedule for Operational Forecast Systems

Fiscal Year of Operational

Delivery

Water Body of new Operational Model

Water Body of Retrofitted Operational

Model

Hydrodynamic Model Selected

# of Operational Models on

NOS Computers

# of Operational Models on NOAA High Performance Computers (HPC)

Total # of Operational

Models

FY10

Tampa Bay

Delaware Bay

Chesapeake Bay

5 Great Lakes

ROMS

ROMS

ROMS

POM (GLERL)

3 8 11

FY11Columbia River

Northern Gulf of Mexico (New Orleans to Mobile)

SELFE

FVCOM 3 10 13

FY12

Gulf of Mexico Region (Sabine Pass to New

Orleans)

San Francisco

Galveston Bay

ROMS or FVCOM

ROMS or FVCOM

ROMS or FVCOM

1 14 15

FY13

Narragansett Bay/Long Island Sound

Puget Sound

New York/New Jersey

St. Johns River

FVCOM

FVCOM

ROMS or FVCOM

0

18 18

FY14

Cook Inlet

Huron Erie Corridor (GLERL) or Prince

William Sound

5 Great Lakes

ROMS or FVCOM

FVCOM

FVCOM (GLERL)

0 20 20

FY15 Eastern GOM-WFSWest Coast Shelf

ROMS or FVCOMROMS or FVCOM 22 22

Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF)

• PURPOSE: Efficient R&D, O&M for NOS OFS• Easy Data Handling & Maintenance• Single System for all Locations• Single standard tool for Graphics and Web Pages• Standard skill assessment and evaluation Tools• Standard NOS Model products to Users• Various Models Allowed

ADCIRC, ECOM, EFDC, ELCIRC, FVCOM, MECCA, POM, ROMS, SELFE

NOS selected ROMS and FVCOM as the core ocean models

COMF is a set of standards and common tools to develop and operate NOS OFS. It is standardized for any model and any location

REAL-TIME DATA

INGESTQA/QC(COMF)

OPERATIONALMODELS (COMF) on CCS

FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE(water level, water temp, currents, & salinity)

PRODUCTS(web pages and digital pt. & gridded data)

FOR USERS

tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov

QA/QC(CORMS) 24 x 7

NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling FrameworkFramework ( (COMFCOMF))

Individual Individual Model Model

systemssystems

Data Tank on CCS: Data Tank on CCS: •Atmospheric ForcingAtmospheric Forcing•Coastal Boundary Coastal Boundary ConditionsConditions•Riverine Fresh Water Riverine Fresh Water InputsInputs

Products and archivesLinux Serverin CO-OPS

NOS Operational Forecast System Evaluation (Model Skill Assessment)

Objective- Measure the performance of model simulations (including tidal

simulation, hindcast, nowcast, and forecast) by comparing with observations

- All models should be assessed and pass the NOS skill assessment standards before transferring to operation

Functions– Data acquisition and process (observations and model outputs)

• Time interval conversion and Gap-filling• Concatenation of model outputs• Filtering• Tidal harmonic analysis and prediction• Extracting extremes/events and slack waters

– Compute statistical variables– Generate skill assessment score tables– Harmonic constants comparison

Continuous Operational Real-Time Monitoring System (CORMS)CORMS is the primary system to perform 24 x 7 real-time QA/QC on all real-time data, systems, and products in the CO-OPS domain

World-Class Supercomputing AT NCEP• IBM Power6 p575

– 69.7 Teraflops Linpack• #36 Top 500 Nov 2008

– 156 Power6 32-way Nodes– 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz– 19,712 gigabytes memory – 170 terabytes of disk space– 100 terabyte tape archive

– Two identical systems locate in different locations. One is production, the other is backup.

– NOAA’s atmosphere operational forecast systems (e.g. NAM, GFS, etc)

– NOAA’s ocean forecast systems (e.g. RTOFS, HYCOM, GLOFS, CBOFS, DBOFS, TBOFS, etc.)

Server “ofsprod” at CO-OPS

• sftp access model outputs on CCS • Produce graphic products.• Produce NOS OFS web pages on CO-OPS web.• Archive Operational Products (NAS)

NCEP Central Computer System (CCS – IBM Super Computer)

All NOS OFS

NWS Web Operations Center (WOC) and Distributed Brokered Networking (DBNet)

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov

THREDDS Data serverOpendap / webservices

NOS OFS PRODUCT FLOW CHART

Sftp

usin

g se

cure

key

• Real-Time Observations

• Model reanalysis and

forecast products

Forcing Data on CCS CORM

S

Public

NOS OFS Nowcast/Forecast Schedule

6 hour nowcast

2-3 day

Forecast

06z (now) 00z 18z 12z

NOS OFS ForcingOBC Surface Forcing River Forcing

Nowcast

Tides from ADCIRCSubtidal WL from ETSS adjusted by real-time observed SWL

T & S from NCOM adjusted by real-time observations

RTMA

NAM and GFS as backup

USGS Real-time river observations (discharges, T, S)

Climatologic daily mean as backup

Forecast

Tides from ADCIRC+Subtidal WL from ETSS

T & S from NCOM

NAMGFS as backup

NWS river forecastProducts Or Persistence from previous nowcast cycle

Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS)

• 4 cycles per day

• 48 hours forecasts of Water levels, current, T & S

Dimensions: 291 x 332 x 20Res. 50 m – 5 km

Bathymetry from NOS sounding

Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System (DBOFS)

• 4 cycles per day

• 48 hours forecasts of Water levels, current, T & S

Dimensions: 119 x 732 x 10Res. 100 m – 3 km


Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System (TBOFS)

•48-hour forecasts of Water levels, current, T & S (4 cycles per day)

Dimensions: 176 x 290 x 11Res. 100 m – 1.2 km


Water Level forecasts at CBBT and Kiptopeke from CBOFS

Synoptic Hindcast : water level validation

Observations from NOS/CO-OPS monitoring stations

Synoptic Hindcast : currents validation

Observations from NOS/CO-OPS/CMIST monitoring stations

Synoptic Hindcast : T error summary

• Left panel show RMSE and Right panel show mean error

• Look at surface, 15-feet (4.6m) and bottom

• Surface, 15-feet similar & largest errors at bottom

• Horizontally, errors mainly along axis of the Bay

• Most mean errors in [-1 oC, +1 oC] range and RMSE in [0 oC, 2 oC]

• CBOFS2 excessively cool at surface and excessively warm at bottom

Synoptic Hindcast : S error summary

• Left panel show RMSE error and Right panel show mean error

• Look at surface, 15-feet (4.6m) and bottom

• Surface, 15-feet similar & largest errors at bottom

• Horizontally, errors mainly along axis of the Bay

• Most mean errors in [-2 , +3 ] range and RMSE in [0 , 4 ] in PSU

• CBOFS2 excessively salty at surface and excessively fresh at bottom

Water Level time series from TBOFS.

Current time series at Sunshine Skyway Bridge and Old Port Tampa from TBOFS.

Challenges and Wish List

• Reliable and stable operational version of ROMS (community model). Reliability > 99%

• Perfect Restart • Wetting and Drying (test in Cook Inlet)• Data Assimilation (e.g. for shelf model)• Composite grids and grid refinement (shelf model + Estuary model) • Coupling with Wave, Ecological and biological modules (hydrodynamic

+ eco.)• Better vertical mixing scheme in coastal shallow waters (vertical

stratification)• Future Collaborations with ROMS Community in transitioning research

to operation.

Thanks !!

Questions ?

Data Resources used for NOS OFS

CCS – NCEP Central Computer System

CORMS – Continuous Operational Real-Time Monitoring System

COMF – Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework

NAM – North American Mesoscale model

GFS – Global Forecast System

RTMA – Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis

RUC – Rapid Update Cycle

NDFD – National Digital Forecsat Database

ETSS – Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Model

NCOM – Navy Coastal Ocean Model

ADCIRC – ADvanced CIRculation model

RTOFS – Real-Time Ocean Forecast System

WOA – World Ocean Atlas

ROMS – Regional Ocean Modeling System

Real-Time Observations

Water Levels, River Flow

Temperature, Salinity

Meteorological variables

Model reanalysis and forecast products

NAM, GFS, RTMA, RUC, NDFD

ETSS, NCOM, RTOFS

ADCIRC tide constituents

WOA

Data tank on CCS

Documents

Outline