Guy P. BrasseurMax-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg

The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Past Accomplishments and Vision for the Future

Outline

1. The MPI-M in a nutshell

2. Mission Statement and Scientific Directions

3. Model Development and Infrastructure

4. Scientific Departments and Projects

5. The International Max Planck School for Earth System Modeling

6. Issues and Challenges

7. Vision for the Future

8. Scientific Presentations

1. The MPI-M in a Nutshell

Founded in 1974 3 Departments

Climate Processes Physical Climate System Biogeochemical System

1 Research Group Integrated Assessments

~200 Staff members Total Budget of 14 Millions Euros

The MPI-M in a Nutshell (1)

The MPI-M in a Nutshell (2)MPG-supported positions: 47.5

Scientists: 20 Technicians: 14.5 Administration: 5.5 Others: 7.5

Scientists supported by soft-money: 65PhD Students: 23M&D Group: 25

The MPI-M in a Nutshell (3)Positions in each Department or Group

Climate Processes: 41 Physical Climate System: 33 Biogeochemical System: 41 Integrated Assessments: 12 International Max Planck Research School: 12 Services: 20 Administration: 20 Others: 10

The MPI-M in a Nutshell (4a)

MPG-supported “Scientist Staff”

Scientists--Scientific support staff: 11--7Permanent—Non Permanent: 15--3Female--Male: 1--17German--Foreign: 16--2

The MPI-M in a Nutshell (4b)

Total Staff of MPI-M

Non Permanent -- Permanent: 143 -- 46 Non German -- German: 37 -- 152 Female -- Male: 77 -- 112

Scientists and Scientific Support

Permanent: 15 Non Permanent: 67

The MPI-M in a Nutshell (5)

Budget of the Institute (2002) in Euros(including salaries in Meuros)

Institutional (MPG) Support: 7.2Projects (Soft-money) 6.4Overhead: 0.3

Total: 13.9

The MPI-M in a Nutshell (6)

Products and Deliverables

85 papers/year in the peer-reviewed literatureCommunity models and model components

(atmosphere, ocean; regional, global)State-of-the-art instrumentationEducational products

The MPI-M in a Nutshell (7)

The Research Environment

Other Max Planck Institutes Biogeochemistry in Jena and Chemistry in Mainz

The University of Hamburg (ZMAW) Institute for Meteorology Institute for Oceanography Sustainability Research Unit:

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Two National Facilities

Model and Data Group (administered by MPI-M) The German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ)

The Model and Data Group (M&D)

A national facility documenting, adapting and providing to the scientific community state-of-the-art global and regional climate models

A national facility hosting and distributing data sets related to the Earth system, and specifically results from long-term model integrations

M&D is administered by the Max Planck Institute and financed by the Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)

The German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ)

A national infrastructure open to the German scientific community providing top-of-the-line supercomputing facility and visualization tools

Private company managed by 4 shareholders (Max Planck Society, University Hamburg, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht, Alfred Wegner Institute (AWI) [4 Meuros/year]

Infrastructure provided by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) [60 Meuros in 10 years]

Organization

MPI-M

M&D

Shareholder

DKRZ

WLA

German Scientific Community

Cooperation

Advise

Service Service

Requirements

2. Mission Statement and Scientific Directions

Mission Statement

To understand how physical, chemical, and biological processes, as well as human behavior contribute to the dynamics of the Earth system, and specifically how they relate to global and regional climate changes.

Analysis and Prediction of the Earth Dynamics

Develop and use appropriate tools to investigate the complexity of the Earth system, explain its natural variability, assess how the system is affected by changes in land-use, industrial development, urbanization and other human-induced perturbations

New Directions (1)Extension of physical climate models towards

comprehensive Earth system modelsDevelopment of a new dynamical core for a

global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model component

Development of a unified ocean model with shelfs, tides, and waddens, using a new grid

Development of a chemical transport model to analyze observations, quantify global budgets, and assess chemistry-climate interactions

New Directions (2)Quantification of energy, water, and carbon

partitioning at the land surface, jointly with MPI-Jena

Study of energetics, dynamics and chemistry of the mesopause region, and influences of upper atmosphere variability on lower atmospheric processes

Assessment of the role of dynamical modes in climate change

Investigation of the glacial-interglacial transitions

.

3. Model Development and Infrastructure

Model developmentECHAM-5: Global Atmospheric GCMMPI-OM-1: Global/Regional Ocean GCM with

ice modelLPJ-BETHY-VIC: Land Vegetation ModelMOZART-2: Global Chemical transport modelHAMMOC: Ocean Biogeochemical ModelREMO: Regional Atmospheric Model with

hydrological cycle and coupled ocean modelLES: Large-scale Eddy SimulationsATHAM: High resolution simulations of fire

and volcanic eruptions

Model components of the Earth System

ECHAM5, REMO, ATHAM, LES

MPI-OM1LSGHAMMOC

MOZART, CHEM, CTM, SAM, HAM

SDIAMSDEM

LPJBETHYVICSICOPOLIS

GWEM

Atmosphere Physics:

Atmospheric Chemistry:

Land Surface

Sea Ice

Ocean Biogeochemistry:

OceanPhysics

Regional Climate:

Coupler

Infrastructure (1)A new organizational structure with

Three Scientific Divisions One Scientific Project for Integrated Assessment A Service Group (Information Technology, Public

Relations and Graphics, Library, Workshop) The Administration The Model and Data Group

(transferred from DKRZ, administered by MPI-M)Seminar SeriesThe International Max Planck Research

School on Earth System Modeling

Infrastructure (2)

Service functions (IT, PR) have been centralized, and a plan for IT development is in preparation, intranet and internet

A new building is being constructedA Strategic Plan for scientific research during

the next 8 yearsSeveral cross-cutting working groups open to

scientists from outside MPI-M

Infrastructure (3)

Joint project with MPI-Biogeochemistry, MPI-Chemistry and PIK (Essence Project) has been developed.

International links, specifically with Institut Laplace in Paris for joint Earth System Model studies have been established.

New supercomputing facilities have been installed and are accessible to MPI-M scientists (DKRZ-Hamburg)

DKRZ Hardware Configuration

(in preparation)

Distribution of computing resources

Shareholders: 50% MPG: 27% Uni-HH: 13% AWI: 5% GKSS: 5%

Projects (BMBF, DFG): 50%

PRISMAn Infrastructure Project for Climate Research in

Europe

PRISMAn Infrastructure Project for Climate Research in

Europe

To create a European infrastructure for developing, coordinating and executing a long-term program of European-wide, multi-institutional Earth System simulationsDevelop a system of portable, efficient and user-friendly community models with associated visualization/diagnostic software under standardized coding conventions.

To create a European infrastructure for developing, coordinating and executing a long-term program of European-wide, multi-institutional Earth System simulationsDevelop a system of portable, efficient and user-friendly community models with associated visualization/diagnostic software under standardized coding conventions.

PRISM Partners

Coordination:MPI-M, GermanyKNMI, The Netherlands

MPI-M&D, GermanyMetOffice, United KingdomUREADMY, United KingdomIPSL, FranceMétéoFrance, FranceCERFACS, FranceDMI, DenmarkSHMI, Sweden

NERSC, Norway CSCS/ETH, Switzerland INGV, ItalyMPI-BGC, GermanyPIK, GermanyECMWF, EuropeUCL-ASTR, BelgiumNEC-ESS, Germany FECIT/Fujitsu, FranceSGI, GermanySUN, GermanyNEC-CCRLE, Germany

4. Scientific Departments and Scientific Projects

A Quick Survey

Climate Processes

Climate Processes

Atmospheric Structure from Passive SensingAtmospheric Structure from Laser Remote

SensingRadar Methods and TechnologyModeling of Boundary Layer ProcessesAerosol Chemistry

Goal: Evaluate energy and moisture exchange between sea surface and the atmosphere from passive microwave satellite data

Example: Annual mean field of fresh water flux in mm/d for the years 1992 and 1993 as derived from SSM/I microwave data

Goal: Derivation of the vertical distribution of key atmospheric parameters as e.g. water vapor, ozone, aerosol, wind, through laser remote sensing

Example: Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) will allow all day water vapor profiling of the troposphere with accuracies comparable to Raman-Lidar results

Future Orientations

Investigation of the indirect aerosol effects Improvement of water cycle components in

climate modelsStudy of the fate organic pollutants in the

different components of the Earth systemQuantification of smoke aerosols to thermal

infrared emissions Improvement and extension of the HOAPS

climatology

Physical Climate System

Physical Climate System

Understanding and predicting internal climate variability on seasonal, inter-annual and decadal timescales

Sensitivity of the climate system to orbital forcing and meltwater input from ice-sheets

Impact of anthropogenic emissions on past and future climate evolution Recent climate trends in model evolution and

observations Projected Climate Change Regionalization and Extreme Events

Difference in annual mean surface air temperature (average over years 501 to 1000) between the mid-Holocene experiment 6k and the control run (modern insolation and preindustrial pCO2).

Differences (%)in a) tree and b) grass plant functional type coverages between the mid-holocene simulation 6k and the control case. Data were averaged over the time period 501 to 1000 years.

Future Orientations

Interactions between the physical climate system and the biological system (carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry)

Simulation of extreme eventsStability of the thermohaline circulationHigh latitude climate

Biogeochemical System

Biogeochemical System

Aerosols, microphysics and climateAtmospheric chemistry at the global and

regional scales: chemistry-climate interactions and air quality

Biogeochemistry in the oceanModeling of chemical-dynamical-radiative

interactions in the Middle and Upper Atmosphere

Atmospheric dynamics and variability modes

Anomalies for 1985 relative to 1870, as calculated by the MPI ECHAM-Aerosol Model

(Dec-Jan-Feb)

MOZART-2 Chemical-Transport Modeling

HAMMONIA - Simulation Examples Zonal Mean Temperature [K] and Ozone for January

Temperature Ozone Mixing ratio

The Quasi-biennal Oscillation (QBO) is simulated by the Middle Atmosphere Version of ECHAM-5 with 90 levels. No specific forcing is applied to the model. The amplitude and period are comparable to observations. This oscillation is not produced by the model that includes only 39 levels.

Marco Giorgetta, MPI-M

The QBO

Variability modes leading to climate regimes exist in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. The processes leading to the stability of polarity of these modes are studied in observations and models.

Future Orientations

Simulation of the atmospheric chemical composition over the last 50 years

Analysis and interpretation of space observations of chemical compounds

Solar variability, anthropogenic forcing, upper atmosphere response and climate change

Development of a system to predict “chemical weather”

Coupling of biogeochemical system with physical climate system

Integrated Assessments

Water and energy cycle in different drainage basins

Climate changes in specific regions of the world Arctic Europe (Baltic) West-Africa

Socio-economic aspects of climate change on the global scale

IPCC-B2 scenario calci:Calculated annual mean precipitation between 2020 and 2050 in response to the.

Model: REMO model at 18 km resolution. Lateral boundary conditions are provided by the MPI-M global climate model.

Black contours: +/-20% changes in annual precipitation with respect topresent (1990-2000)

+20%

-20%

A simple climate model calibrated on the state-of-the-art MPI-M climate model is coupled to a socio-economic model, which reflects basic dynamic interactions between actors within the economy.

Future Orientations

Future development of the MPI-M regional Climate system (aerosol-cloud system, convection, dynamic vegetation)

Regional climate changesFuture water availabilitySocio-economic studies will be developed

primarily through cooperation with ZMAW and PIK

5. The International Max Planck Research School for Earth System

Modeling

Objective

The purpose of „IMPRS on Earth System Modelling“ is to bring together natural and social scientists to work towards the development and evaluation of a hierarchy of integrated earth system models and their components.

Pillars

Combination of thesis research and courses

International

Multidisciplinary

Financial Support

1. Zeit Stiftung: 50%

2. Max Planck Society: 50%

Participating Organizations

1. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg2. University of Hamburg (Institute for

Meteorology, Institute for Oceanography, Sustainable Research Unit, Department of Economics)

3. University of Kassel4. GKSS (Institute for Coastal Zones)5. HWWA (Hamburg Institute for International

Economics)

• Nearly 90 applications, 75% from outside

Germany, 70% male

• 14 Fellowships awarded, 60% from outside

Germany, 15% male

• additional students financed via projects

total of 25,

50% from outside Germany, 30% male

The First Vintage(March 2002)

The Second Vintage (November, 2002)

73 applications from Argentina, Belarus, Benin, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palestine, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Tanzania, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, USA, Venezuela, Zimbabwe.

8 from Germany

Students of the IMPRS on Earth System Modelling

Name Country of

origin

Supported via PhD Research

Payra, Swagata

India MPI -M/IMPRS The role of the thermohaline circulation in climate change

Pfeifer, Susanne

Germany MPI-M/SFB Simulation of convective situation in the extratropics/REMO

Rechid, Diana

Germany MPI-M/BMBF Feedback of vegetation on regional climate variability

Ronneberger, Kerstin

Germany Hamburg University/Volkswagen Foundation

An economic land-use model

Santos, Gabriela

Portugal ZEIT Foundation/IMPRS The role of natural halocarbons for the global tropospheric ozone budget

Stehfest, Elke

Germany Kassel University/ IMPRS CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions caused by land use change

Stier, Phillip Germany MPI-M Towards an assessment of the indirect aerosol effect - development of an aerosol module for a GCM

Vizcaino Trueba, Miren

Spain MPI-M Ice Sheets and the Earth System - Coupling of an ice sheet model and an OAGCM

Wetzel, Patrick

Germany MPI-M Short term variability of ocean CO2 budgets

Woth, Katja Germany MPI-M Recent and future storm surge climate for the North Sea

Zhou, Yuan China Hamburg University/ IMPRS An Economic Analysis of Water resources and Water consumption due to global change

Zuo, Xinjuan China Hamburg University/ IMPRS Climate and Economic Growth

Students of the IMPRS on Earth System Modelling

Name Country of

origin

Supported via PhD Research

Criscuolo, Luca

Italy MPI-BGC/Volkswagen Foundation Modelling of global agricultural systems under scenarios of climate and land use change and its impacts on carbon cycle and economic factors

Cui, Xuefeng China MPG-GV/Chinese Academy of Sciences Simulation on Clouds over Namco Lake in Tibet with the model GESIMA

Dang Hong, Hanh

Vietnam HWWA/IMPRS Integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies as instruments of international climate policy

Devasthale, Abhay

India Hamburg University/ IMPRS Cloud Optical Properties from EOS-MODIS Measurements

Gaslikowa, Lidia

Russia GKSS/IMPRS Assessment of scenario impact on matter transporting and wave parameters at the coastal zone

Grossmann, I ris

Germany GKSS/IMPRS Scenarios for the Lower Elbe region with particular emphasis on changes in the environment-economy-interrelationship

Gugliemo, Francesca

Italy MPI-M/ IMPRS Using a GCM to investigate the multicompartmental fate of toxic organics

Hoelzemann, Judith

Germany MPI-M Modelling of global agricultural systems under scenarios of climate and land use change and its impacts on carbon cycle and economic factors

Jung, Martina

Germany MPG-GV/IMPRS Implications for climate change of the integration of forest sinks in international climate policy

Kloster, Sivia Germany MPI-M/BMBF The role of biogenic sulphur species in the climate system

Kotlarski, Sven

Germany MPI-M/BMBF regional water cycles / Baltex (running title)

Link, Peter Michael

Germany Hamburg University/BMBF Modelling the economic consequences of a change of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for fisheries in the North Atlantic region

Nayaran, Caroline

Fijii ZEIT Foundation/IMPRS Investigation of the changes in carbon dioxide fluxes and concentrations in the European region represented by various models

Sw

ag

ata

, M

iren,

Katj

a, S

wagata

Abhay, Phillip, Stephen

Michael

Jud

ith,

Caro

line, S

ilvia

Patrick, Lidia

Kerstin

Elke, Luca

Jessica

Yuan, Iris

Tina

Hanh

Gabriela, Francesca

Dia

na

Sven, Susanne

6. Issues and Challenges

Issues and Challenges (1)

The Institute has been in a too long transition (1998-2003).

The freeze in the hiring of permanent positions in the last 5 years has been damaging to the Institute (about 80% of the scientific staff is on soft-money with insufficient supervision and mentoring)

The lack of computer upgrade (1997-2002) has delayed progress, and specifically the release of the new community models.

Evolution of Computing Power at DKRZ

Peak Performance of Supercomputers at DKRZ [GFlops]

0,1

1

10

100

1000

10000

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106

Year

Cyber 205

Cray-2S

Cray C90

(NEC SX4/8)NEC SX4/16

Phase 1

HLRE - Phase 2Phase 3

Cray-YMP

Issues and Challenges (2)The lack of perspectives for junior scientists

lowers staff morale (5-year and 12-year rules).

The need for permanently supported computer engineers in an institute that develops community models.

The lack of a clear overhead system has negative impacts on the management of the Institute.

The financial problems of the Max Planck Society and their impact on the research

7. Vision for the Future

Values for the InstituteScientific excellence and high productivity Integration of research efforts with

educational/outreach initiativesDevelopment of human capital Increase in staff diversity, including the proportion

of womenBroadening of traditional approaches towards

integrative and interdisciplinary methodologiesMaintain strong internal and external

communication, using modern technologies

LeadershipThrough the development, documentation

and the dissemination of community models ECHAM, MPI-OM, REMO, Mozart, etc.

Through the coordination of large scientific projects Earlinet, PRISM, Baltex, PARTS, RETRO, etc.

Through the organization if community conferences and workshops Earth System Conference, Workshop on dynamical cores

and on convection in climate models

Where should the Institute be in 5 years from now ?

A new Director for the “Physical Climate” Division

The 5 vacant MPG positions filled with outstanding scientists covering new aspects

A joint research program with Jena, Mainz and Potsdam supported by MPG.

The implementation of a “Climate Service” providing quasi-operational climate prediction and regrouping DKRZ and the M&D group

Where should the Institute be in 5 years from now ?

A new generation of supercomputer in place (European initiative?)

A redefined direction for the “Atmospheric Process” Division (retirement of H. Grassl)

A second phase of the IMPRSThe release of the first version of the

Integrated Earth System Model (global and regional components)

8. Scientific Presentations

Today’s Presentations

1. Examples of Integrated Research Activities: H. Grassl2. Illustrations of Scientific Activities:

Large Eddy Simulations: A. Chlond Global Climate Modeling: M. Latif Regional Climate Modeling: D. Jacob Atmospheric Structure from Lidar and Radar: J. Bösenberg Atmospheric Chemistry: M. Schultz Upper and Middle Atmosphere Modeling:

M. Giorgetta

The END