Our Delphi ProcessRounds 3-5

Helen Ivy Rowe

DefinitionA method for the systematic solicitation and collation of informed judgments on a particular topic*.

*Turoff, Murray. “The Design of a Policy Delphi” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2 (1970), 149-171.

ProcedureA set of carefully designed sequential questionnaires interspersed with summarized information and opinions feedback derived from earlier responses.

Possible ObjectivesTo determine or develop a range of possible alternatives.To explore or expose underlying assumptions or information leading to differing judgments.To seek out information which may generate a consensus of judgment on the part of the respondent group.

Possible ObjectivesTo correlate informed judgments on a topic spanning a wide range of disciplines.

To educate the respondent group as to the diverse and interrelated aspects of the topic.

Our Objectives

Delphi 3 and 5: Establish the range of differing positions More clearly define areas of agreement and

conflicting opinion

Delphi 4: Solicit informed review of a document from a

participant group spanning a wide range of disciplines.

Give participants a chance to think about issues on their own

Synthesize ideas to work with at this meeting

Round 3Goal: Find closure on vision statement and agree on a definition for rangelandsRate the level of acceptability for

Rangelands definitionRate the level of acceptability for

Rangelands vision statement and SRR vision statement

State preference for vision statement

Round 3: ResultsPreference for the SRM definition of rangelands (28/32)Broad acceptance to adopt Rangelands vision statement (29/33)Split over whether to adopt the SRR vision statement (8+8?) along with Rangelands vision statement (17) Respondents offered alternative text.

Round 5: GoalsFinalize definition of rangelands

Finalize a vision/mission “package”Allow participants to rate acceptance and

give preference over alternative selections of vision and mission statements

Package 1

Accepted SRR mission statement: The Roundtable will identify indicators of sustainability based on social, economic, and ecological factors, to provide a framework for national assessments of rangelands and rangeland use.

Vision 1: We envision a future in which rangelands in the U.S. provide a desired mix of economic, ecological and social benefits to current and future generations.

Package 2Accepted SRR

mission statement: The Roundtable will identify indicators of sustainability based on social, economic, and ecological factors, to provide a framework for national assessments of rangelands and rangeland use.

Vision 1 (vision for rangelands): We envision a future in which rangelands in the U.S. provide a desired mix of economic, ecological and social benefits to current and future generations.Vision statement #2 (vision for the SRR process): We envision a future where we have widely accepted criteria and indicators for monitoring and assessing the economic, social, and ecological sustainability of rangelands.

Package 3Accepted SRR

mission statement: The Roundtable will identify indicators of sustainability based on social, economic, and ecological factors, to provide a framework for national assessments of rangelands and rangeland use.

Vision 1 (vision for rangelands): We envision a future in which rangelands in the U.S. provide a desired mix of economic, ecological and social benefits to current and future generations.Vision statement #2 (vision for the SRR process): We envision a future where we have the capability to monitor and assess the economic, social, and ecological sustainability of rangelands.

Package 4Accepted SRR

mission statement: The Roundtable will identify indicators of sustainability based on social, economic, and ecological factors, to provide a framework for national assessments of rangelands and rangeland use.

Vision 1 with suggested addendum: We envision a future in which rangelands in the U.S. provide a desired mix of economic, ecological and social benefits to current and future generations. We strive to develop widely accepted criteria and indicators for monitoring and assessing the economic, social, and ecological sustainability of rangelands.

Package 5Accepted SRR

mission statement: The Roundtable will identify indicators of sustainability based on social, economic, and ecological factors, to provide a framework for national assessments of rangelands and rangeland use.

Vision 1 with addendum: We envision a future in which rangelands in the U.S. provide a desired mix of economic, ecological and social benefits to current and future generations. In order to achieve that future, criteria and indicators for monitoring and assessing the economic, social, and ecological sustainability of rangelands must be designed, implemented, widely accepted, and continued over time.

Round 5: ResultsSRM definition of rangelands acceptable by all 26 respondents.“Land on which the indigenous vegetation (climax or natural potential) is predominantly grasses, grass-like plants, forbs, or shrubs and is managed as a natural ecosystem. If plants are introduced, they are managed similarly. Rangelands include natural grasslands, savannas, shrublands, many deserts, tundras, alpine communities, marshes and meadows.”

Future consideration for rangelands definition

Comment in Round 5: I would like to see reference to the 10% canopy cover used in the forested definition. Would be nice if we could keep the two definitions (range/forest) so that they don’t overlap.

Round 5: Results

Vision/mission packages: group split

Total responses = 25 Acceptable

(check all packages that you could live with)

Not acceptable (check all packages not acceptable to you)

Prefer (chose only one package that you prefer)

Package 1 18 7 5 Package 2 19 6 4 Package 3 15 10 5 Package 4 15 10 3 Package 5 14 11 7

Package 2Accepted SRR

mission statement: The Roundtable will identify indicators of sustainability based on social, economic, and ecological factors, to provide a framework for national assessments of rangelands and rangeland use.

Vision 1 (vision for rangelands): We envision a future in which rangelands in the U.S. provide a desired mix of economic, ecological and social benefits to current and future generations.Vision statement #2 (vision for the SRR process): We envision a future where we have widely accepted criteria and indicators for monitoring and assessing the economic, social, and ecological sustainability of rangelands.

Round 4Goal: Identify gaps in important issues developed at Salt Lake City meeting.

Round 4: ResultsChange in Vegetation Patterns Monitoring change Conservation of biological diversity, plants, animalsDisturbance Regimes Water ResourcesRiparian areas

Round 4: Results

Economic evaluation of economic and biological costsLegal, economic, and institutional framework Social/political Uses Toxics Carbon Budgets Climatic Change Other comments

Delphi 4 Homework Assignment

Please study these before the meeting and come prepared with your own comments.

Delphi 3-5 Overall Results

Accepted SRM definition of rangelands

Tentatively accepted compromise vision/mission package #2

Made great progress in identifying important issues

Produced a document to use at this meeting

Next Steps

At this meeting, we have allotted time to add important issues to issue areas and/or to reorganize the small groups to include important issues identified in Delphi 4.

We plan to do three more rounds between this and the next meeting in San Antonio.