Our clients, Friends, Partners,

At Evidence Frontiers, we hope that you are all well and

safe, and that you are taking all precautionary

measures outlined by the World Health Organisation and

your Ministry of Health to safeguard yourselves and your

loved ones.

We encourage you to have a role in promoting health

awareness and education, as well as circulating information

to raise the level of health practices and behaviour change.

We would like to particularly extend our appreciation to all

of you for your efforts in providing psychosocial and

emotional support or any other support activities during this

pandemic.

This is a critical situation which puts many public and private

systems under stress, and it is time to work side by side with

them for strengthened collective efforts. We are aware of the

local, regional and international challenges that all

governments are currently facing as a result of this crisis.

At an institutional level, we are in support of the decision

by governments to restrict movement through lockdowns in

a bid to flatten the curve.

Through our website and social media platforms, we provide

you with updates on the global situation from reliable

sources as we spread awareness on this pandemic.

Furthermore, we believe data and evidence collection in

general has a huge role in combating this global pandemic

and thus its accurate handling should be adopted at all

response levels. It is also considerable that CSO's reaffirm

their fundamental role as a key partner in emergency

contexts during this period. Be safe and spread truthful

information about the pandemic as we hope for things to be

back to normal very soon.

Thank you!

Communications Office 

NEWSLETTER

APRIL 2020 ISSUE 1

WelcomeT O O U R A P R I L N E W S L E T T E R

Africa has seen a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases since the

continent’s first case was reported in mid-February. To date,

more than 17,000 confirmed cases and slightly above 800

confirmed deaths have been reported. Despite these

statistics, only one thing should matter: the evidence. It is

the lack of it that has clearly determined the wide diversity

in policy responses in different countries in Africa. We see a

potentially fatal disease, COVID-19, of unusual infectiousness.

Yet we have no idea how infectious, because lack of testing

means we cannot tell if vast numbers of people have it to

some degree, or just a few. All facets of science disagree with

this notion. We have no idea if fatality is the outcome for 5%

of victims, or 2%, or 1% – and therefore how drastic should be

the response in Africa.Evidence is wanting. Death “rates” lag

behind deaths. Deaths are confused with “hospital deaths”.

Headlines highlight “most cases per nation” or “most deaths

per nation”, not deaths per million or cases per million or

test per million. This information seems to be scanty world

over, yet we are at the mercy of these statistics. For example,

with an estimated population of 47,564,296 (2019 Population

Census Report) in Kenya, 8,123 tests have been conducted –

mostly from the quarantine facilities. Out of this, 216 cases of

COVID-19 have been confirmed with 9 people reported to

have died as a result of COVID-19. These statistics translates

to 171 per million of people who have been tested, 5 per

million population of confirmed cases and 0.2 per million

population of deaths reported. The presented statistics

indicates low severity of the pandemic in the country. Of

course, this is not true if mass testing has not been factored.

We therefore peg the question: Which evidence did the

government rely on to introduce cessation in some of the

counties (Nairobi, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale)? These kinds of

evidence would play a critical role to the policymakers to see

what level of lockdown to impose on their people. The

situation is even worse in Uganda - as one of the countries

which introduced total lockdown to its people. One would

even ask, has Tanzania been on the right path all along?

Maybe not since mass testing has not been prioritised either

hence the severity of the pandemic can be reported with

certainty.Countries in total or partial lockdown (South Africa,

Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Tunisia) are compared with

countries practising social distancing (Ethiopia et al) and

those such as Tanzania, which does none of those things. As

a continent, we simply don’t have models that balance “the

direct, visible and dramatic harms of COVID-19 with the

more indirect, chronic and hidden social and economic

harms of lockdown”. Either lockdown (partial or total) or

social distancing, these models have proved to be

challenging to implement. The African context is unique.

There are population structure differences, high prevalence

of endemic diseases and the double burden of disease, with

health systems that are stretched thin with minimal critical

care capacity.

Some of these hurdles, such as the fact that social

distancing may be difficult in the types of informal

settlements common in African cities, that those working

in the informal sector or living in economically precarious

situations may not be able to work from home, and that

the lack of access to water complicates the

implementation of best practices regarding hand washing

are shared with other African countries. This is just a

snippet of it.Is herd immunity the right pathway? Herd

immunity is the indirect protection from a contagious

infectious disease that happens when a population is

immune either through vaccination or immunity

developed through previous infection. This means that

even people who aren’t vaccinated, or in whom the vaccine

doesn’t trigger immunity, are protected because people

around them who are immune can act as buffers between

them and an infected person. According to GAVI, the more

infectious a disease, the greater the population immunity

needed to ensure herd immunity. For example, measles is

highly contagious and one person with measles can infect

up to 18 other people. This means that around 95% of

people need to be immune in order for the wider group to

have herd immunity. On the other hand, COVID-19 is

perceived to have lower infection rate than measles, with

each infected person passing it on to two or three new

people, on average. This means that herd immunity can be

achieved when around 60% of the population becomes

immune to COVID-19. According to the BCG world atlas

data (2017), apart from Sudan and Morocco, all other Africa

countries have a BCG vaccination policy for all. If the

evidence suggested by A. Miller et al – “Correlation between

universal BCG vaccination policy and reduced morbidity

and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study” is

anything to go by, then it follows that herd immunity

would have been the best policy approach for most Africa

countries, and just maybe President Magafuli Pombe of

Tanzania has been right all along and other African

countries should follow suit. Just may be.With Africa

countries implementing different policies, I foresee hard

evidence emerging. Such may include the effectiveness of

face masks, social distancing against mass isolation and

economic collapse. Plus, many more. Key for many Africa

countries will be to embrace mass testing to derive long-

term policy solutions to the pandemic. COVID-19 is here

with us and it won’t be going away soon. We should plan to

live with it without closing markets to our goods and

services.

Mwachi, D.CEO - Evidence Frontiers

BEST OPTION FOR AFRICAN COUNTRIES, LOCKDOWN OR HERDIMMUNITY?

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What CSOs and M&E World can do to help during thisCovid19 outbreak

Carry out public awareness about this pandemic using online

media and help combat misinformation.

Ensure that governments and ministries include CSOs in the

developing of contingency plans.

Pressure governments and international organisations working in

health to allocate sufficient budgets for emergency activities.

Play your role in evaluating the plans and ensure that support is

well coordinated and harmonised.

Play your role in pressuring the official and private media to

carefully cover the matter in this circumstance, including ensuring

that this information is accessible to persons with disabilities and

those living in remote areas.

Hold governments accountable for their readiness and the quality

of their preparedness.

Civil Society Organisations continue to play a key role in global

development and sure have an important part in the fight against

covid-19.  It is our hope that this crisis will enable world leaders to

develop better systems that can be effective and respond to crises in a

timely manner not only today but also in future. However, we believe

that CSOs have to be more alert and help in the following ways during

this period:

The aforementioned are immediate steps that address the current

situation. When the crisis is over, we will evaluate our countries’

responses and reaffirm that It is not reasonable to wait for a crisis to

realise that civil society organisations are an integral part of the

solution. It is time for integration and partnership to be an authentic

practice, to be reflected on the entirety of the relationship between

civil society organisations and governments.

Stay safe, respect health guidance and take care of yourself

and others

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GeoPoll administered a survey on the knowledge ofand perceptions towards coronavirus in South Africa,Kenya, and Nigeria. The study was conducted among

1,350 respondents, nationally representative bylocation in each country and with a 50-50 gender split,

and an age split of 33% ages 15-24, 35% ages 25-34,and 32% ages 35+. Here are some important findings:

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To read the full report visit https://www.geopoll.com/

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Evidence Frontiers isdedicated to deliveringprofessionalism and freshperspectives to the challengeof eradicating global povertyglobally. We help policymakers and managers makesocially impactful decisionsusing rigorous evidence. Hereare some of our services:

Our Services

email: info@evidencefrontiers.com web:https://www.evidencefrontiers.comFor more information, contact us on: or visit

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