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Origin Energy Macquarie Australia Conference, 1-3 May 2013 Grant King, Managing Director “Knowledge Is Power”

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Page 1: Origin Energy

Origin EnergyMacquarie Australia Conference, 1-3 May 2013

Grant King, Managing Director

“Knowledge Is Power”

Page 2: Origin Energy

Important Notice

Each institution that reviews this presentation will be deemed to represent that it is a “qualified institutional buyer” within the meaning of Rule 144A under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933. This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction (including the USA). Thispresentation is for information purposes only, is in a summary form, and does not purport to be complete. This presentation doesnot take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any investor, potential investor or any other person. No investment decision should be made in reliance on this presentation. Independent financial and taxation advice should be sought before making any investment decision.

Forward looking statements

This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results expressed or implied by such statements. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of Origin and cannot be predicted by Origin and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause objectives to change as well as risks, circumstances and events specific to the industry, countries and markets in which Origin and its related bodies corporate, joint ventures and associated undertakings operate. They also include generaleconomic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, the regulatory environment, competitive pressures, selling price, marketdemand and conditions in the financial markets which may cause objectives to change or may cause outcomes not to be realised.

None of Origin Energy Limited or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents) (the Relevant Persons) makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking statements. The forward looking statements in this presentation reflect views held only at the date of this presentation.

Statements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance.

Except as required by applicable law or the ASX Listing Rules, the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking topublicly update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.

No offer of securities

This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction.

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Page 3: Origin Energy

An investment in Origin provides a stake in …

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The largest integrated energy business in Australia and New Zealand

• Large and diverse fuel portfolio of physical and contracted fuel supply

• Largest and most flexible generation portfolio

• Largest retail energy customer base

An investment in APLNG’s two train CSG to LNG project

• Strong and well aligned joint venture with unrivalled expertise

• Largest 2P reserves to cover domestic and export contracts

• Binding sales contracts signed for 8.6 mtpa of LNG

Growing resource opportunities domestically and overseas

• Domestic and international gas exploration opportunities

• Energy development opportunities including geothermal, hydro and wind

… together with an experienced and stable management team

Page 4: Origin Energy

Existing Business Responding to Challenges

• Regulation and pricing

• Retail competition

• Wholesale energy costs

• Growing contribution from gas

APLNG Confidence in Schedule & Cost

• Upstream 35% complete, downstream 37% complete

• On schedule for first gas from Train 1 mid 2015 and Train 2 start up by end of 2015

Funding Strengthened

• Continued management of maturity of debt facilities with the pricing of €900 million medium term notes

Origin is focused on responding to challenges in the existing business, progressing the APLNG project and strengthening its funding position

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Debt Maturity Profile

Page 5: Origin Energy

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At this conference last year we talked about the potential adverse impacts of regulation on energy markets …

… which have eventuated in the form of an unfavourable QCA tariff determination for FY2013

Page 6: Origin Energy

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Effective retail energy markets are underpinned by full deregulation, with Federal and State governments committing to this path …

• On 7 December 2012, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) agreed to the recommendations made by the Standing Council on Energy and Resources (SCER):

• The need for retail energy markets characterised by strong competition that offer innovative products and services to the benefit of consumers

• Jurisdictions have agreed to provide advice to SCER by the end of 2013 on current state of competition and policy settings

• The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) is conducting a review of the effectiveness of retail competition in NSW, with final advice to be provided to SCER by 30 September 2013

… however the timing of implementation remains unclear

Page 7: Origin Energy

Retail competition in Australia is strong as evidenced by churn …

• The Finnish based international energy think tank VassaETT has consistently found that Australia has the most competitive energy markets in the world

• Victoria has been ranked the most competitive energy market over the past 5 years with South Australia near the top. Queensland and New South Wales are also in the top 10

• Retail price deregulation encourages competition, product innovation and investment and is necessary for well functioning energy markets.

• Where regulation persists it must allow retailers to recover efficient costs across the supply chain.

Source: VassaETT World Energy Retail market Rankings 2012

… and deregulation is critical to encourage investment, reliability and competition

Page 8: Origin Energy

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South Australia has joined Victoria in deregulating retail energy prices …

• The South Australian regulator (ESCOSA) deregulated electricity and gas prices from 1 February 2013

… while New South Wales and Queensland maintain price regulation

• The Queensland regulator (QCA) published a Draft Determination on 22 February 2013 for the FY2014-FY2016 period• Market based methodology retained, but has

delivered an approximate $9-12/MWhincrease over FY2013

• Origin’s submission addresses impact of retail competition, no recovery of prior SRES losses, and various modelling assumptions

• Final Determination by 31 May 2013

• The New South Wales regulator (IPART) published Draft Determination on 23 April with price outcomes broadly in line with FY2013• Blended market price (25%) and LRMC (75%)

methodology adopted

• Reduced energy cost allowance offset by increases in retail cost and margin allowance

• Submissions due 20 May 2013

• Final Determination in June 2013

• The Victorian market has been fully deregulated since 1 January 2009• The most competitive energy market in the

world

• Has promoted product innovation and investment

Page 9: Origin Energy

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Wholesale energy costs are expected to be higher this year than in previous years …

Higher average pool prices across the NEM

of $8/MWh

Reduced generation availability

Average prices less than $300/MWh

Average prices greater than $300/MWh

Estimated carbon cost

A combination of weather,

demand and plant availability

… due to one-off high priced events in July 2012 and January 2013

Page 10: Origin Energy

The impact of the LNG export channel is now evidenced in the domestic market …

… with Origin well positioned through a growing contribution from gas over the next five years

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• Train 1 revenue• Revenue from

GLNG gas sales

• Halladale Black Watch• Ironbark• International gas

development options• Potential for additional

APLNG train

• Revenue from QCLNG gas sales

• Revenue from two full trains

• On 10 April Origin announced an agreement with Beach Energy to purchase up to 173 PJ of gas over a 10 year period from 2015

• This agreement lengthens Origin’s domestic gas book and establishes oil linkage as a pricing mechanism for domestic gas contracts

• Benefits of legacy gas position

Expanding gas margins in Energy Markets

Industry begins LNG production

APLNG and GLNG start up

Full production from APLNG

Potential Development

Options

Page 11: Origin Energy

APLNG continues to make good progress towards delivering first gas in mid 2015 …

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At 31 March 2013

• 256 Phase 1 wells drilled

• Five development drilling rigs online

• Condabri lateral pipeline complete

• Main pipeline 56% complete

• Eastern gas field facilities 52% complete

• Western gas facilities 26% complete

Water Treatment Facility, Condabri – March 2013

Trenching, Condabri – March 2013 LNG Tank, March 2013Curtis Island site, March 2013

UPSTREAM PROJECT 35% Complete

DOWNSTREAM PROJECT 37% Complete

At 31 March 2013

• First deliveries over the MOF occurred in January

• First four modules received at Curtis Island

• All train 1 compressor units have been shipped to Australia

• LNG tank construction continued, including preparations for roof raising on first tank

… maintaining schedule and budget despite extreme wet weather conditions during the March 2013 quarter

Page 12: Origin Energy

12 |(1) Excludes Contact and bank guarantees.(2) Excludes Contact.

Origin continues to manage the maturity of its existing debt facilities, increasing its undrawn committed debt facilities and cash to $6.21 billion at April 2013

The S&P hybrid equity credit criteria change announced in April has not affected Origin’s BBB (stable) credit rating

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Loan & Bank Guarantees - Undrawn

Loans & Bank Guarantees - Drawn

Hybrids, USPP, 144A & medium term notes • Pricing of €900 million Euro medium term notes in April 2013

• Origin has the option to cancel any bank loan facilities not required without penalty

Page 13: Origin Energy

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The production and consumption of energy continues to be a highly topical and much debated subject by consumers and in the community …

Sources: (1) Origin Galaxy Research 2013. (2) APLNG Quantitative Research Study, November 2012

RETAIL PRICING

• 72% of Australians say they are knowledgeable about electricity and gas, and 12% consider themselves very knowledgeable1

However...

• Only 14% can correctly identify what actually contributes most to their home energy consumption1

• Consumers are divided about who is responsible for the rising cost of electricity:

• 17% pointing the finger at electricity distribution companies1

• 26% blaming electricity retailers1

• 18% believe the Carbon Tax is the factor that contributes most to the cost of providing energy1

CSG

• 53% of respondents on the Eastern Seaboard indicated they “have heard of CSG, but don’t know much about it”2

• Only 5% claim they “fully understand CSG and could explain it to others” 2

… particularly in relation to retail pricing and the development of CSG

Page 14: Origin Energy

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Traditional ways of communicating with consumers and the community are not addressing the disconnection from the facts …

• 93% of Australian who have internet access, use the internet daily1

• 43% of electricity customers today use the internet to find information on products/services (up from 10% in 2000)2

• 50% of people are most likely to turn to Google to find out more about energy and with only 15% likely to go to energy company websites3

• Origin has around 400,000 unique visitors to its website every month

There is a lot of misinformation across the industry

There is little ability to challenge much of the misinformation that exists to appropriately inform the debate

… prompting Origin to develop new and innovative digital platforms to improve engagement with stakeholders

Sources: (1) Neilson Neilsen Social Media Landscape March 2012. (2) Australia Scan 2012/13. (3) Origin Galaxy Research 2013.

Page 15: Origin Energy

The ‘Benefits are Clear’ and Darren Lockyer Campaign activity has been effective

• Brand tracking from February 2013 showed favourabilitytowards CSG in SE QLD (32%) is at its highest level

• An uplift of 267% APLNG website traffic was achieved

• From 6 February to 17 March APLNG achieved 32,168 unique visitors to its website and 35,896 total visitors

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Lockyer Campaign in Market

Page 16: Origin Energy

Darren Lockyer video – CSG and Fraccing

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Page 17: Origin Energy

The role of a market leader is to ensure that consumers and the community are well informed

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Origin has today launched a new digital platform, Energy Explorer, aiming to make accessible factual information on a variety of energy related topics

Page 18: Origin Energy

Energy Explorer establishes new channels for Origin to provide energy facts, and product & service information to consumers …

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… and a platform enabling real-time conversations to address energy issues that are important to the community

Access to Factual Information

• originenergy.com.au/energyexplorer

• knowledgeispower.com.au

• Google searches

Real-Time Conversations

• Social media

Consumer Needs• Provides products and

service information

• Enhances customer loyalty

Community Issues• Addresses energy

concerns that are important to the community

Page 19: Origin Energy

Thank you

Further Information

Kylie SpringallGroup Manager, Investor RelationsEmail: [email protected]: +61 2 8345 5288Mobile: + 61 400 477 393

Websitewww.originenergy.com.au

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