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Origin EnergyMacquarie Australia Conference, 1-3 May 2013
Grant King, Managing Director
“Knowledge Is Power”
Important Notice
Each institution that reviews this presentation will be deemed to represent that it is a “qualified institutional buyer” within the meaning of Rule 144A under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933. This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction (including the USA). Thispresentation is for information purposes only, is in a summary form, and does not purport to be complete. This presentation doesnot take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any investor, potential investor or any other person. No investment decision should be made in reliance on this presentation. Independent financial and taxation advice should be sought before making any investment decision.
Forward looking statements
This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results expressed or implied by such statements. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of Origin and cannot be predicted by Origin and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause objectives to change as well as risks, circumstances and events specific to the industry, countries and markets in which Origin and its related bodies corporate, joint ventures and associated undertakings operate. They also include generaleconomic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, the regulatory environment, competitive pressures, selling price, marketdemand and conditions in the financial markets which may cause objectives to change or may cause outcomes not to be realised.
None of Origin Energy Limited or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents) (the Relevant Persons) makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking statements. The forward looking statements in this presentation reflect views held only at the date of this presentation.
Statements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance.
Except as required by applicable law or the ASX Listing Rules, the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking topublicly update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.
No offer of securities
This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction.
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An investment in Origin provides a stake in …
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The largest integrated energy business in Australia and New Zealand
• Large and diverse fuel portfolio of physical and contracted fuel supply
• Largest and most flexible generation portfolio
• Largest retail energy customer base
An investment in APLNG’s two train CSG to LNG project
• Strong and well aligned joint venture with unrivalled expertise
• Largest 2P reserves to cover domestic and export contracts
• Binding sales contracts signed for 8.6 mtpa of LNG
Growing resource opportunities domestically and overseas
• Domestic and international gas exploration opportunities
• Energy development opportunities including geothermal, hydro and wind
… together with an experienced and stable management team
Existing Business Responding to Challenges
• Regulation and pricing
• Retail competition
• Wholesale energy costs
• Growing contribution from gas
APLNG Confidence in Schedule & Cost
• Upstream 35% complete, downstream 37% complete
• On schedule for first gas from Train 1 mid 2015 and Train 2 start up by end of 2015
Funding Strengthened
• Continued management of maturity of debt facilities with the pricing of €900 million medium term notes
Origin is focused on responding to challenges in the existing business, progressing the APLNG project and strengthening its funding position
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Debt Maturity Profile
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At this conference last year we talked about the potential adverse impacts of regulation on energy markets …
… which have eventuated in the form of an unfavourable QCA tariff determination for FY2013
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Effective retail energy markets are underpinned by full deregulation, with Federal and State governments committing to this path …
• On 7 December 2012, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) agreed to the recommendations made by the Standing Council on Energy and Resources (SCER):
• The need for retail energy markets characterised by strong competition that offer innovative products and services to the benefit of consumers
• Jurisdictions have agreed to provide advice to SCER by the end of 2013 on current state of competition and policy settings
• The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) is conducting a review of the effectiveness of retail competition in NSW, with final advice to be provided to SCER by 30 September 2013
… however the timing of implementation remains unclear
Retail competition in Australia is strong as evidenced by churn …
• The Finnish based international energy think tank VassaETT has consistently found that Australia has the most competitive energy markets in the world
• Victoria has been ranked the most competitive energy market over the past 5 years with South Australia near the top. Queensland and New South Wales are also in the top 10
• Retail price deregulation encourages competition, product innovation and investment and is necessary for well functioning energy markets.
• Where regulation persists it must allow retailers to recover efficient costs across the supply chain.
Source: VassaETT World Energy Retail market Rankings 2012
… and deregulation is critical to encourage investment, reliability and competition
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South Australia has joined Victoria in deregulating retail energy prices …
• The South Australian regulator (ESCOSA) deregulated electricity and gas prices from 1 February 2013
… while New South Wales and Queensland maintain price regulation
• The Queensland regulator (QCA) published a Draft Determination on 22 February 2013 for the FY2014-FY2016 period• Market based methodology retained, but has
delivered an approximate $9-12/MWhincrease over FY2013
• Origin’s submission addresses impact of retail competition, no recovery of prior SRES losses, and various modelling assumptions
• Final Determination by 31 May 2013
• The New South Wales regulator (IPART) published Draft Determination on 23 April with price outcomes broadly in line with FY2013• Blended market price (25%) and LRMC (75%)
methodology adopted
• Reduced energy cost allowance offset by increases in retail cost and margin allowance
• Submissions due 20 May 2013
• Final Determination in June 2013
• The Victorian market has been fully deregulated since 1 January 2009• The most competitive energy market in the
world
• Has promoted product innovation and investment
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Wholesale energy costs are expected to be higher this year than in previous years …
Higher average pool prices across the NEM
of $8/MWh
Reduced generation availability
Average prices less than $300/MWh
Average prices greater than $300/MWh
Estimated carbon cost
A combination of weather,
demand and plant availability
… due to one-off high priced events in July 2012 and January 2013
The impact of the LNG export channel is now evidenced in the domestic market …
… with Origin well positioned through a growing contribution from gas over the next five years
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• Train 1 revenue• Revenue from
GLNG gas sales
• Halladale Black Watch• Ironbark• International gas
development options• Potential for additional
APLNG train
• Revenue from QCLNG gas sales
• Revenue from two full trains
• On 10 April Origin announced an agreement with Beach Energy to purchase up to 173 PJ of gas over a 10 year period from 2015
• This agreement lengthens Origin’s domestic gas book and establishes oil linkage as a pricing mechanism for domestic gas contracts
• Benefits of legacy gas position
Expanding gas margins in Energy Markets
Industry begins LNG production
APLNG and GLNG start up
Full production from APLNG
Potential Development
Options
APLNG continues to make good progress towards delivering first gas in mid 2015 …
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At 31 March 2013
• 256 Phase 1 wells drilled
• Five development drilling rigs online
• Condabri lateral pipeline complete
• Main pipeline 56% complete
• Eastern gas field facilities 52% complete
• Western gas facilities 26% complete
Water Treatment Facility, Condabri – March 2013
Trenching, Condabri – March 2013 LNG Tank, March 2013Curtis Island site, March 2013
UPSTREAM PROJECT 35% Complete
DOWNSTREAM PROJECT 37% Complete
At 31 March 2013
• First deliveries over the MOF occurred in January
• First four modules received at Curtis Island
• All train 1 compressor units have been shipped to Australia
• LNG tank construction continued, including preparations for roof raising on first tank
… maintaining schedule and budget despite extreme wet weather conditions during the March 2013 quarter
12 |(1) Excludes Contact and bank guarantees.(2) Excludes Contact.
Origin continues to manage the maturity of its existing debt facilities, increasing its undrawn committed debt facilities and cash to $6.21 billion at April 2013
The S&P hybrid equity credit criteria change announced in April has not affected Origin’s BBB (stable) credit rating
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A$ m
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Loan & Bank Guarantees - Undrawn
Loans & Bank Guarantees - Drawn
Hybrids, USPP, 144A & medium term notes • Pricing of €900 million Euro medium term notes in April 2013
• Origin has the option to cancel any bank loan facilities not required without penalty
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The production and consumption of energy continues to be a highly topical and much debated subject by consumers and in the community …
Sources: (1) Origin Galaxy Research 2013. (2) APLNG Quantitative Research Study, November 2012
RETAIL PRICING
• 72% of Australians say they are knowledgeable about electricity and gas, and 12% consider themselves very knowledgeable1
However...
• Only 14% can correctly identify what actually contributes most to their home energy consumption1
• Consumers are divided about who is responsible for the rising cost of electricity:
• 17% pointing the finger at electricity distribution companies1
• 26% blaming electricity retailers1
• 18% believe the Carbon Tax is the factor that contributes most to the cost of providing energy1
CSG
• 53% of respondents on the Eastern Seaboard indicated they “have heard of CSG, but don’t know much about it”2
• Only 5% claim they “fully understand CSG and could explain it to others” 2
… particularly in relation to retail pricing and the development of CSG
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Traditional ways of communicating with consumers and the community are not addressing the disconnection from the facts …
• 93% of Australian who have internet access, use the internet daily1
• 43% of electricity customers today use the internet to find information on products/services (up from 10% in 2000)2
• 50% of people are most likely to turn to Google to find out more about energy and with only 15% likely to go to energy company websites3
• Origin has around 400,000 unique visitors to its website every month
There is a lot of misinformation across the industry
There is little ability to challenge much of the misinformation that exists to appropriately inform the debate
… prompting Origin to develop new and innovative digital platforms to improve engagement with stakeholders
Sources: (1) Neilson Neilsen Social Media Landscape March 2012. (2) Australia Scan 2012/13. (3) Origin Galaxy Research 2013.
The ‘Benefits are Clear’ and Darren Lockyer Campaign activity has been effective
• Brand tracking from February 2013 showed favourabilitytowards CSG in SE QLD (32%) is at its highest level
• An uplift of 267% APLNG website traffic was achieved
• From 6 February to 17 March APLNG achieved 32,168 unique visitors to its website and 35,896 total visitors
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Unique Visitors to APLNG website 3 June 2012 to 28 April 2013
Lockyer Campaign in Market
Darren Lockyer video – CSG and Fraccing
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The role of a market leader is to ensure that consumers and the community are well informed
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Origin has today launched a new digital platform, Energy Explorer, aiming to make accessible factual information on a variety of energy related topics
Energy Explorer establishes new channels for Origin to provide energy facts, and product & service information to consumers …
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… and a platform enabling real-time conversations to address energy issues that are important to the community
Access to Factual Information
• originenergy.com.au/energyexplorer
• knowledgeispower.com.au
• Google searches
Real-Time Conversations
• Social media
Consumer Needs• Provides products and
service information
• Enhances customer loyalty
Community Issues• Addresses energy
concerns that are important to the community
Thank you
Further Information
Kylie SpringallGroup Manager, Investor RelationsEmail: [email protected]: +61 2 8345 5288Mobile: + 61 400 477 393
Websitewww.originenergy.com.au
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