Oregon’s Changing Demographics Oregon Commision for the Blind December 13, 2007 Richard Bjelland (503) 981-4076 [email protected]

Oregon’s Changing Demographics

Oregon Commision for the Blind

December 13, 2007

Richard Bjelland (503) 981-4076 [email protected]

Changing Demographics:Impacts to Oregon and the U.S.

• Are demographic changes taking place?– Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition?

Presentation Definitions

• A person of Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity may be of any race

• Minority represents any of the following:– An individual of any race other than white only– A multiracial individual– A person of Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity

• Non-Minority or “white only” – A white only non-Hispanic or Latino person

Race Percent

White 8.0%

Black 1.9%

American Indian/Alaska Native 14.6%

Asian 1.0%

Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander 9.5%

Some other race 97.1%

Two or more races 31.1%

Hispanics as a Percent of RaceUnited States - Census 2000

1980 1990 2000

Percent of Population



Percent Change

Percent of Increase

Percent Change

Percent of Increase

Total Population 100% 100% 100% 9.8% 13.2%

Hispanics 6.4% 9.0% 12.5% 53.0% 34.9% 57.9% 39.6%

White* 79.6% 75.6% 69.1% 4.4% 35.5% 3.4% 19.6%

Black* 11.5% 11.7% 12.1% 11.9% 14.0% 16.2% 14.5%

American Indian & Eskimo* 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 26.6% 1.7% 15.3% 0.8%

Asian and HPI* 1.5% 2.8% 3.7% 99.7% 15.7% 50.3% 10.7%

Other* 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% -62.8% -1.9% 87.8% 0.7%

Two or more races* 1.6% 14.1%

U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.

* Non-Hispanic only; in 1980 and 1990 "Asians" includes Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders.

The 2000 Census also marked the first time that respondents were allowed to select more than one racial category. On earlier Censuses, multiracial individuals were asked to chose a single racial category, or respond as Some Other Race.

U.S. Hispanic Population and Race Distribution for Non-Hispanic Population

Demographic Changes - 1980 to 2000

1980-1990 1990-2000

Source of US Population Growth 2000 to 2050

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2000 - 2050 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030 2030 - 2040 2040 - 2050

Hispanic Other race alone White aloneSource: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, Table 094

Primary Sources of California's Population Growth 1980 - 2000

51.6%

20.8%

5.1%

23.9%

79.7%

-7.5%

2.2%

25.3%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Hispanics White Black Asian

Pe

rce

nt

of

Po

pu

lati

on

Gro

wth

1980-1990 1990-2000

White, Black, and Asian represent non-Hispanics of those races

Asian includes Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander

White in 2000 includes Two or more race individuals

Hispanics may be of any race

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.

Increase Growth Rate

1990 2000 1990-2000 1990-2000

Not H or L 22,072,083 22,905,092 833,009 3.8%

Hispanic or Latino

7,687,938 10,966,556 3,278,618 42.6%

Total 29,760,021 33,871,648 4,111,627 13.8%

Not H or L 74.2% 67.6% 20.3%

Hispanic or Latino

25.8% 32.4% 79.7%

Population

California Population Change


California Demographics• In 1970, 4 in 5 Californians were white;

now whites are in the minority – 44.5 %• Only one in three children in California’s

public schools is white; 45 % are Latino• In Los Angeles, only 10 % are white; 70 %

are Latino• District F in LAUSD has 60,000 students;

98 % are minorities; and contains Belmont High School - 5,500 students with a 40 % graduation rate

Education 101 - The Economist Print Edition, April 29th, 2004

1980 1990 20001990 to 2000

Increase

Minority 177,093 262,589 563,783 301,194

White not Hispanic 2,456,012 2,579,732 2,857,616 277,884

Total 2,633,105 2,842,321 3,421,399 579,078

% Minority 6.7% 9.2% 16.5% 52.0%

% White not Hispanic 93.3% 90.8% 83.5% 48.0%


Oregon Minority Population

Components of Annual Population Growth by Decade, 1950 – 2000Source: Portland State University’s Population Research Center

Oregon

Immigrants Disperse to New Growth States

Oregon’s Foreign Born as a percent of Total Population in 2000 - 8.5 %Percent change in the foreign-born population: 1990 -2000 - 108 %

44.6

27.3

18.8

5.9

1.7

1.6

Latin America

Asia

Europe

Northern America

Africa

Oceania

Percent Distribution of Oregon’s Foreign Born by Region

Births Total Hispanic Non-Hispanic % Hispanic

1981 42,974 1,146 41,828 2.7%

1991 42,458 3,278 39,180 7.7%

2001 45,318 7,903 37,415 17.4%

Deaths 2001

30,128 430 29,698 1.4%

2001 Natural

Increase15,190 7,473 7,717 49.2%

Oregon Vital Statistics Annual Report 2001 Volumes 1 & 2

Resident Births and Deaths in Oregon

1998 Birth Rates Per Thousand

• White Non-Hispanic 12.3• Asian and Pacific Islander 16.4• Black Non-Hispanic 18.2• Hispanic 24.3

U.S. Department of Health and Human

Services, National Vital Statistics Reports,

V. 38, No. 3

Population HouseholdsPersons per

HH

Not Hispanic or Latino 3,146,085 1,270,016 2.48

Hispanic or Latino 275,314 63,707 4.32

Total 3,421,399 1,333,723 2.57

Not Hispanic or Latino 92.0% 95.2%

Hispanic or Latino 8.0% 4.8%

Census 2000 - Oregon

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population - 2000.

Source of Oregon's Population Growth 1980 to 2005

59.1%

48.0% 47.4%

22.4%

28.1%

39.0%

18.5%

23.9%

13.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2005

% o

f G

row

th

White Hispanic NonHispanic Minority

Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Census 1980,1990, 2000 and 2005 American Community Survey

19802.5%

19904.0%

20008.0%1980

93.3% 19804.2%

199090.8%

19905.3%

200083.5%

20008.4%

Percent of Population Growth 2000-2005

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

Benton Clackamas Jackson Lane Marion Multnomah Washington YamhillPerc

ent o

f Gro

wth

White alone NH Hispanic NonHispanic Minority

70% of Oregon’s population live in these 8 counties

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census 2000 and 2005 American Community Survey

Percent of Population Growth 2000-2005

47.4%

37.3%

70.3%

39.0%

45.3%

24.8%

13.6%17.5%

4.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Oregon 8 Counties 28 Counties

Perc

ent o

f pop

ulat

ion

grow

th

White alone Hispanic NonHispanic Minority

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census 2000 and 2005 American Community Survey

Woodburn's Population by Ethnicity

81.8%

68.6%

49.9%

18.2%

31.4%

50.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1980 1990 2000

% o

f P

op

ula

tio

n

Not Hispanic or Latino Hispanic or Latino


Woodburn School District Students

15911479

13141251

2664

3562

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 2000 2005

October EnrollmentNot Hispanic or Latino Hispanic or Latino

44.0%

64.0%

73.1%

56.0% 36.0%

26.9%

Woodburn School District Demographics 1990 - 2005

1031

1251

539

21

868

1824

571

28

865

2664

572

42

791

3562

467

56

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Major Culture Hispanic Russian Other

Sep

tem

ber

En

rollm

ent

1990 1995 2000 2005

185 %

Oregon Public School Minority Enrollment

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

Black Asian/OPI AIAN Hispanic

Source: Oregon Department of Education - Oregon Report Card 2004-2005

188 % Increase

51,094

Hispanic

Oregon Public School White Enrollment

370,000

380,000

390,000

400,000

410,000

420,000

430,000

440,000

450,000

460,000

1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05


-12% (46,080)

Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change by Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005

Race and Hispanic or Latino originTotal

population change*

Natural Increase Net International

MigrationTotal Births Deaths

TOTAL POPULATION 14,985,802 8,651,861 21,329,804 12,677,943 6,333,941

.One Race 14,304,500 8,048,543 20,649,216 12,600,673 6,256,173

..White 9,748,454 5,474,702 16,288,560 10,813,858 4,274,278

..Black or African American 2,204,470 1,710,544 3,236,557 1,526,013 493,542

..American Indian and Alaska Native 199,150 150,041 209,152 59,111 49,171

..Asian 2,098,350 682,925 878,407 195,482 1,415,274

..Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 54,076 30,331 36,540 6,209 23,908

.Two or more races 681,302 603,318 680,588 77,270 77,768

.Race alone or in combination:(1)

..White 10,370,378 6,039,297 16,917,720 10,878,423 4,331,515

..Black or African American 2,619,127 2,098,756 3,645,928 1,547,172 519,704

..American Indian and Alaska Native 228,539 164,497 267,035 102,538 63,893

..Asian 2,369,911 905,818 1,124,585 218,767 1,463,859

..Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 82,876 46,839 62,160 15,321 36,279

HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN 7,380,846 4,123,268 4,685,371 562,103 3,257,595

WHITE ALONE, NOT HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN 2,789,441 1,601,513 11,888,320 10,286,807 1,188,483

HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN % of Change 49.3% 47.7% 22.0% 4.4% 51.4%

WHITE ALONE, NOT HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN % 18.6% 18.5% 55.7% 81.1% 18.8%

(1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race.

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau

Total Change

Hispanic Change

White NH Change

Hispanic % of Change

White NH % of Change

Total Population 2,866,428 1,420,469 515,736 49.6% 18.0%

.Under 18 years 227,852 417,063 (297,921) 183.0% NA

18 to 44 years 225,011 541,924 (576,050) 240.8% NA

45 to 64 years 2,063,055 357,343 1,258,720 17.3% 61.0%

.65 years and over 350,510 104,139 130,987 29.7% 37.4%

.85 years and over 141,383 15,229 103,850 10.8% 73.5%

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau

Estimated U.S. Population Change July 1, 2003 to July 1, 2004

NA - Not applicable since White Non-Hispanic population change was negative


• Are demographic changes taking place?– Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition?– Changes in Age and Sex Distributions?

Child-bearingyears

Child-bearingyears


• Are demographic changes taking place?– Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition?– Changes in Age and Sex Distributions?– Changes in Household composition?

Oregon Households Percentage by Type 1960 to 2006

16.2% 19.2%23.5% 25.3% 26.1% 28.0%

1.5%2.5%

6.0%6.7% 8.1%

8.0%35.5%

36.5%

34.9%36.0%

35.0%35.1%3.6%

4.7%

7.0%7.7%

8.6%8.9%

43.3%37.1%

28.6%24.4% 22.2% 20.0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006

Single Person HHs Multi-person Non-Family HHs Families - No Children < 18

Single Parent - Children < 18 Married - Children under 18

65+ = 8.9% 65+ = 9.8% 65+ = 9.1%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1960 to 2000, 2006 American Community Survey

65+ = 8.9%

Household Type as a Percent of Oregon Household Growth - 1960 to 2006

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-2006

Single PersonHouseholds

Multi-person Non-Family Households

Families with NoChildren Under 18

Single Parent withChildren Under 18

Married-couple withChildren Under 18

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census, 1960 to 2000, 2006 American Community Survey


• Are demographic changes taking place?• What are impacts of demographic changes?

Source: Pew Hispanic Center Study - Suro and Passel


Percent of Oregon Students Meeting Reading Standards in 2004

87% 86%

78%

74%

63%

52%55%

51%

35%

27%

22%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White Asian/PI AIAN Black Hispanic Special Ed

3rd Grade 10th Grade


Percent of Oregon Students Meeting Mathematics Standards in 2004

85% 85%

73%71%

63%

57%

47%

58%

25%

19%17%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

White Asian/PI AIAN Black Hispanic Special Ed

3rd Grade 10th Grade


Changing Demographics Impacts on Educational AttainmentAn Example of Impacts Under the Following Assumptions

Past

High School

Students

High School Graduation

Rate

% Graduating High School

% HS Graduates Obtaining College Degree

% College Graduates of All High

School Students

% of All HS Students not Graduating High School

Hispanic 10% 50% 5.00% 15% 0.75% 5.00%

NH Minority 10% 60% 6.00% 25% 1.50% 4.00%

White NH 80% 80% 64.00% 40% 25.60% 16.00%

Total 100% 76.00% 27.85% 25.00%

Future (using California's current student ratios)

Hispanic 45% 50% 22.50% 15% 3.38% 22.50%

NH Minority 22% 60% 13.20% 25% 3.30% 8.80%

White NH 33% 80% 26.40% 40% 10.56% 6.60%

Total 100% 62.10% 17.24% 37.90%

In this scenario

* 38% decrease in percent graduating from college

* 52% increase in percent of students not graduating high school

Educational Attainment vs. Earnings

• High school dropouts on average earn $12,000 per year, half of a high school graduate, and one third of those with more than a high school degree

• They will earn ~$260,000 less than a high school graduate and pay $60,000 less in taxes over a lifetime

Source: Cecilia Rouse, NBER - The Labor Market Consequences of an Inadequate Education

Labor Force Hispanics Non-HispanicsHispanic

% of Total

2000 (in 000's) 16,307 125,462 11.5%

2020 (in 000's) 28,901 137,029 17.4%

2000-20 change 12,594 11,567 52.1%

2000-20 % change 77.2% 9.2%

Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Force - 2000 to 2020


Full-T ime Worker 1999 Earnings by Race, Ethnicity and Educational Attainment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

White alone Asian Hispanic < High school High school Some college College degree

An

nu

al E

arn

ing

s (

00

0s

)

Median Average

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

Oregon Per Capita Income as Percent of White Only Per Capita Income

100%

44%

62%60%

89%

62%

46%43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White Only Hispanic Black AIAN Asian NHOPI Other Two or more

Perc

ent o

f Whi

te O

nly

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2005 American Community Survey

White HispanicTwo parents

one childTwo parents two children

Revenue difference

Taxable Income Line 37 55,522 31,386Tax Line 44 4,659 858Child Care Credit 600 858Child Tax Credit 1000*# 1,000 2,000Earned income credit 0 1,240Net Federal Tax / (Credit) 3,059 (3,240) (6,299)Oregon Taxable Income 48,918 27,841Oregon Tax 4,034 2,135Exemption credit 153*# 462 616Earned income credit 5% 0 62Child Care Credit 0 300Net Oregon Tax before WFCCC 3,452 1,157Working Family Child Care Credit 0 3,830Net Oregon Tax / (Credit) 3,452 (2,673) (6,125)Soc Sec / Medicare 7.65% 4,247 2,401 (1,846)Total Taxes / (Credits) 10,758 (3,512) (14,270)* Source: 2005 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Tax Impact of Oregon White vs. Hispanic Median Family Incomes

2005 Tax Returns were used to calculate tax liabilities / credits

White NH MFI - $55,522 * Hispanic MFI - $31,386 *

Taxable income is earned income, children are in child care and standard deduction

Ratio of working age persons to persons aged 65 and over

8.6

4.7

2.82.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1940 2000 2030 2075

Ra

tio

U.S. Congress. Congressional Budget Office. 2002

Projected U.S. Employment and Persons 65 and Over

129,722

152,675

164,151

34,992

52,733

70,319

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2000 2020 2030Employed labor force Population 65 and over

(in 1000s)

101%

27%

Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.

America’sPerfect StormAmerica’sPerfect Storm

Irwin KirschETS

National Press ClubWashington, D.C.February 5, 2007


Three Forces Are Changing Our Nation’s Future

• Inadequate literacy and numeracy skills among large segments of our student and adult populations

• An ongoing shift in the demographic profile of our population, powered by the highest immigration rates in nearly a century

• The continuing evolution of the economy and the nation’s job structure, requiring higher levels of skills from an increasing proportion of workers


Half of America’s adults lack literacy skills needed for the 21st century.

All Adults Asian Black Hispanic White

35 3020 14

41

139

33

17

2028 33

49

12

32

33

44

33

30

100

80

60

40

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percentage of Adults 16-65 Years Old at:Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4/5

Major Demographic Impacts• Racial/ethnic composition of public school students

changing rapidly in Oregon• Minority population generally less educated with

lower earnings capacity• White educated Baby Boomers begin retiring in 2010• Work force growth will mostly come from minority

population - primarily Hispanic• Federal and state revenue will be negatively

impacted unless minority earnings increase• Ratio of workers to retired persons is decreasing -

putting pressure on retirement plan funding

Demographic Conclusions• U.S./Oregon is rapidly changing from primarily

a nation of white non-Hispanic persons to a racially and ethnically diverse population

• Hispanic/Latino and Asian populations are the fastest growing; white only the slowest

• Hispanic/Latino population increases now account for half of U.S. population growth

• Planning and policy decisions in education, housing, social services, etc. should reflect these patterns of growth


• Are demographic changes taking place?• What are impacts of demographic changes?• View this presentation at

www.ohcs.oregon.gov/OHCS/PPR_Demographics.shtml

Richard Bjelland(503) 981-4076 [email protected]

Documents

Oregon’s Changing Demographics Oregon Commision for the Blind December 13, 2007 Richard Bjelland (503) 981-4076 [email protected]