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OPTIMA INCO-MPCOPTIMA INCO-MPCThird Management Third Management

Board MeetingBoard Meeting,,May 18/19 2008May 18/19 2008 GumpoldskirchenGumpoldskirchen

OPTIMA INCO-MPCOPTIMA INCO-MPCThird Management Third Management

Board MeetingBoard Meeting,,May 18/19 2008May 18/19 2008 GumpoldskirchenGumpoldskirchen

DDr. Kurt Fedra Environmental Software & Services GmbH

A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen Austria kurt@ess.co.at http://www.ess.co.at DDr. Kurt Fedra Environmental Software & Services GmbH

A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen Austria kurt@ess.co.at http://www.ess.co.at

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Baseline targets:Baseline targets:Baseline targets:Baseline targets:

• WRM performance targets:– Complete and reasonable scenario– Total outflow +/- 25% observations– Daily flow at least for ONE station close to end

node */ 2

– Basic economic assessment (basis for optimization and comparison )

• STREAM performance targets:– DO/BOD within reasonable ranges – any WQ

observation data ?– WQ related economics under development

• WRM performance targets:– Complete and reasonable scenario– Total outflow +/- 25% observations– Daily flow at least for ONE station close to end

node */ 2

– Basic economic assessment (basis for optimization and comparison )

• STREAM performance targets:– DO/BOD within reasonable ranges – any WQ

observation data ?– WQ related economics under development

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Case studies: how to proceedCase studies: how to proceed

By PM 18 (December 2005):

• Baselines ready for each case

• Basic economic assessment

• Basic water technologies ready to link, on-line data base

• Optimization framework agreed:– Criteria, objectives, constraints

By PM 18 (December 2005):

• Baselines ready for each case

• Basic economic assessment

• Basic water technologies ready to link, on-line data base

• Optimization framework agreed:– Criteria, objectives, constraints

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Work Plan (simple version)Work Plan (simple version)

WP 07 Cyprus + + -WP 08 Turkey + + +WP 09 Lebanon + - -

WP 10 Jordan + - -WP 11 Palestine/Israel + - -WP 12 Tunisia + - -WP 13 Morocco + - -

WP 07 Cyprus + + -WP 08 Turkey + + +WP 09 Lebanon + - -

WP 10 Jordan + - -WP 11 Palestine/Israel + - -WP 12 Tunisia + - -WP 13 Morocco + - -

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Case studies: how to proceedCase studies: how to proceed

Optimization framework:

• Basic economics – TR, CY, ?• Objectives, constraints:

• Instruments, water technologies:

New questionnaires ?

INSTRUMENTS, CONSTRAINTS

Optimization framework:

• Basic economics – TR, CY, ?• Objectives, constraints:

• Instruments, water technologies:

New questionnaires ?

INSTRUMENTS, CONSTRAINTS

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Model use targets:Model use targets:Model use targets:Model use targets:

WRM performance targets:

• Complete and reasonable scenarios includes groundwater links, realistic reservoir data

• Provide observation data for CONTROL NODES, add control nodes for all monitoring stations -> compliance, flood damages

• Basic economic assessment

WRM performance targets:

• Complete and reasonable scenarios includes groundwater links, realistic reservoir data

• Provide observation data for CONTROL NODES, add control nodes for all monitoring stations -> compliance, flood damages

• Basic economic assessment

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ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS:

Direct Costs:

• Capital and OMR for start nodes, reservoirs, diversions.

Direct Benefits:

• demands satisfied for demand nodes

Direct Costs:

• Capital and OMR for start nodes, reservoirs, diversions.

Direct Benefits:

• demands satisfied for demand nodes

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ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS:

Indirect Costs:

• shortfall at demand nodes

• penalties at control nodes

• flood damages

Indirect benefits:

• compliance at control nodes

Indirect Costs:

• shortfall at demand nodes

• penalties at control nodes

• flood damages

Indirect benefits:

• compliance at control nodes

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ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS:

Under development for QUALITY:• Cost of treatment (capital, OMR)

• Cost of waste water reduction (at demand nodes, capital and OMR)

• Penalties for standard violations (control)

• Use benefits for clean water (demand)

• Compliance benefits (control nodes)

• Use benefits (reaches, e.g., recreational)

Under development for QUALITY:• Cost of treatment (capital, OMR)

• Cost of waste water reduction (at demand nodes, capital and OMR)

• Penalties for standard violations (control)

• Use benefits for clean water (demand)

• Compliance benefits (control nodes)

• Use benefits (reaches, e.g., recreational)

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OPTIMISATION:OPTIMISATION:OPTIMISATION:OPTIMISATION:

CONSTRAINTS:

• Global constraints

• Node specific constraints

• Sectoral (not implemented)

directly derived from model results:

CONSTRAINTS:

• Global constraints

• Node specific constraints

• Sectoral (not implemented)

directly derived from model results:

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CONSTRAINTS:CONSTRAINTS:CONSTRAINTS:CONSTRAINTS:

CONCEPTVALUE

Overall Supply / Demand ratio >

Reliability of supply % >

Unallocated water m3/s <

Shortfall m3/s <

Content change/decrease % <

CONCEPTVALUE

Overall Supply / Demand ratio >

Reliability of supply % >

Unallocated water m3/s <

Shortfall m3/s <

Content change/decrease % <

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CONSTRAINTS:CONSTRAINTS:CONSTRAINTS:CONSTRAINTS:Total Cost (combined) Total Benefit (combined)

Total Cost (direct) Total Benefit (direct)

Cost/Benefit ratio (comb.) Benefit/Cost ratio (comb.)

Cost/Benefit ratio (direct) Benefit/Cost ratio (direct)

Water Cost (combined) Economic Efficiency (comb.)

Water Cost (direct) Economic Efficiency (direct)

Net Benefit (combined)

Net Benefit (direct)

And any number of combinations, ratios, node specific, sectoral values, etc.

Total Cost (combined) Total Benefit (combined)

Total Cost (direct) Total Benefit (direct)

Cost/Benefit ratio (comb.) Benefit/Cost ratio (comb.)

Cost/Benefit ratio (direct) Benefit/Cost ratio (direct)

Water Cost (combined) Economic Efficiency (comb.)

Water Cost (direct) Economic Efficiency (direct)

Net Benefit (combined)

Net Benefit (direct)

And any number of combinations, ratios, node specific, sectoral values, etc.

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OPTIMISATION:OPTIMISATION:OPTIMISATION:OPTIMISATION:

1. Technologies are applied to NODES.

2. Each technology affects some model parameters (demand, efficiency/losses) for the different node types at a cost.

3. Benefits accrue from water supplied.

4. Optimization approach: Satisficing• First round: Model selects the combinations

of technologies that meets all constraints

1. Technologies are applied to NODES.

2. Each technology affects some model parameters (demand, efficiency/losses) for the different node types at a cost.

3. Benefits accrue from water supplied.

4. Optimization approach: Satisficing• First round: Model selects the combinations

of technologies that meets all constraints

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TECHNOLOGIES:TECHNOLOGIES:TECHNOLOGIES:TECHNOLOGIES:

Are NOT restricted to technology in a narrow sense, can include policies and institutional change that do affect supply, allocation, demand, efficiency, quality

FOR example: – Pricing/subsidies affects demand– Market (privatization) affects allocation– Enforcement (regulatory change) affects

quality and efficiency

Are NOT restricted to technology in a narrow sense, can include policies and institutional change that do affect supply, allocation, demand, efficiency, quality

FOR example: – Pricing/subsidies affects demand– Market (privatization) affects allocation– Enforcement (regulatory change) affects

quality and efficiency

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Water TechnologiesWater TechnologiesWater TechnologiesWater Technologies• Name, META DATA• Description (unstructured, hypertext HTML, types)

• Application domain• allocation, supply, structures, quality

• Investment (annualized):• unit cost, reference unit for scaling

• Operation (annual):• OMR unit cost, reference unit for scaling

• Effects multiplier for:• Demand, consumptive use, distributions losses

/MANUALS/WATERWARE/watertechnologies.html

• Name, META DATA• Description (unstructured, hypertext HTML, types)

• Application domain• allocation, supply, structures, quality

• Investment (annualized):• unit cost, reference unit for scaling

• Operation (annual):• OMR unit cost, reference unit for scaling

• Effects multiplier for:• Demand, consumptive use, distributions losses

/MANUALS/WATERWARE/watertechnologies.html