Optical components and networking

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

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1

Optical components and networking

Michael S. LebbyGM & CTO

[email protected]


Translucent Inc


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Capacity Issues & Challenges • Long Term – US Needs More R&D to Retain Leading Role in

Network Development & Innovation– Industry Structure has Changed Over Time

• Mid-Term – Escalating Consumer Bandwidth Demands– New Technologies to Scale Core, Edge & Datacenters– Broadband Ecosystem Highly Interwoven & Interdependent

• Short-Term – US Opportunity to Regain Leading Role – Continuing Investment is Critical

Sources: OIDA research, One Chip Photonics


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R&D gap


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How do we bridge this gap in the optoelectronics industry?

2 4 8 14 16Time (Yr)

Research Commercial R&D

Commercial Product Development& Manufacturing

Industry

Start of concept126 10

Relative Investment ($)

981015di004

Today

Industrial based R&D

Academia

ExpenseRisk

GAP

Less companies are profitable

OE manufacturing nearly all off-shore in Asia

Not fashionable to have corporate R&D labs anymore

Can we afford to do R&D + manf in USA today?Sources: OIDA research


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What has changed over the last decade?

• Market share– 1993 – Losing manufacturing to Japan– 2009 – Movement off-shore broadening and accelerating

– Competition from Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China . . . – US companies moving operations off-shore– R&D following manufacturing

• Corporate infrastructure– 1993 – Vertically integrated– 2009 – Fragmented, down-sized, divested, more focused start-ups

• Technology platform– 1993 – Primarily III-V based– 2009 – Si has expanded into optoelectronics areas; higher precision growth,

dimensional tolerances and structures • Technology drivers

– 1993 – Corporate central labs– 2009 – Central labs no longer exist in industry

– University research– National laboratories

Optoelectronics is in deep trouble in USASources: OIDA research


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Photonics markets...are already global


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Asia dominant in OE/photonics

• Asia owned 81%of global 2009 OEmarket of $353B USA

11%

Canada1%

Japan30%

Taiwan22%

China8%

Other Asia3%

South Korea17%

France1%

Germany1%

Netherlands3%

Italy0%

UK1%

Other Europe2%2009

Sources: OIDA research, IOA

North America & Europe minor players


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Market share in 2021

• USA – Down 11% 8%

USA8%

Canada1%

Japan24%

Taiwan23%

China14%

Other Asia3%

South Korea18%

France1%

Germany3% Netherlands

3%

Italy0%

UK0%

Other Europe2%2021


Asia remains strong


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OE/photonics market by major location

• By 2021, share: Europe 8.6%, USA 9%, and Asia 82.4%• Asia photonics maintains growth (3.4% CAGR 2010-2021)

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Asia

North America


Asian infrastructure strongest


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OE/photonics market by country

• By 2021, OE/photonicswill be a $500Bbusiness with many countries contributing…

• China grows quickly• US constant

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UK

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Netherlands

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Other Asia

China

Taiwan

Japan

Canada

USA


Design + manf off-shore


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USA decade trends remain flat

• Optical fiber communications and components strong

• Photonic lighting CAGR 2010-21 of 12.2%

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llion

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Photonic lighting

Precision optical lens and laser

Optical fiber comm

Optical storage

Optical I/O devices

Flat panel displays

Optical components


USA exporting photonics jobs?


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Networks must address scaling...


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Network as a catalyst for change in lifestyle

• Social lifestyle personal lifestyle

Before Computer centric Experts level Data exchange

Today Network centric Trained level Archieval/access

Future User centric Pedestrian level Knowledgeable

Source: MIC Japan, Fujitsu, NTT

Lifestyle drives PAN BAN


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Social networking user growth is driving bandwidth, datacenters

Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09

450M

When will the trend slow down?

500M


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from Exa to Zetta-bytes…

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism

Only 44 Exabytes/month in 2012

Driven by consumer internet…


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The challenge of network scaling in

the core


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The challenges…

• Network interface rates will reach 10 Tbps – Estimates range for 1Tbps in 2015 and up to 10Tbps in 2020

• Network traffic growth is outstripping system capacity growth– System deployments will accelerate strongly in the coming years– System capacity will become the most important factor

• Simple extrapolation of current methods will not meet the need– Progress needed on all fronts (electronics and photonics)

simultaneously• Market for core based systems will be robust

Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

Driven by consumer internet…


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Scaling the core of the network…

• We know (or severely suspect)– Global system capacity will be important in the next decade

• And we are not keeping up here in the US… – Traffic growth will outstrip capacity growth– Volumes will be large and growing (internet utility users)– New photonics and electronics technologies are critically needed

• We are worried that extreme choking (congestion, traffic-jams) will mean consumers will pay more for the data they use…

• $/bit metrics are here to stay…

Limit how we utilize the internet…Sources: OIDA research


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System capacity and network traffic (Including voice)

• 2010-2030 forecast trends

1

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10000

100000

1000000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gb/

s

Year

TDM ResearchWDM ResearchTDM CommercialWDM CommercialTotal Traffic

Gap???Will traffic >> capacity???

Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

1Tbps

10Tbps

1Pbps

Will we fill the fiber optic pipes?


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System capacity and network traffic (Including voice)

• 2010-2030 forecast trends

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gb/

s

Year

TDM ResearchWDM ResearchTDM CommercialWDM CommercialTotal Traffic

Will the price stop us from down loading data?

Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

1Tbps

10Tbps

1Pbps

Carriers will charge $/bit to slow us down…


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System evolution…

1990s• 2.5-10 Gbps

channel rate• 8,16, 40

Channels• 20-160 Gbps

Capacity• SE = .025-.05

History

2000• 10 Gbps

channel rate• 100 Channels• 1 Tbps

Capacity• SE = 0.2

History

2010 100 Gbps

channel rate 100

Channels 10 Tbps

Capacity SE = 2.0Near Future

2015 1 Tbps ??

channel rate 100 Channels 50 Tbps

Capacity ?? SE = 20 ??R&D Needed

SE = Spectral Efficiency = Channel Rate / Channel Spacing

Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

2020 4 Tbps ??

channel rate 200 Channels 500 Tbps ??

Capacity SE >50 ??R&D Critically

Needed

Even with 2015 target, traffic growth will exceed capacity growth by a factor of 10…

Asia strong in network design…

Challenge is to find 10Tbps technology


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Networks must address energy...


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Evolve architecture quickly… (while traffic CAGR >50%)

• IP over DWDM transport:– Eliminate unnecessary layers and minimize underutilized equipment– Maximize architecture and equipment scalability

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism

Challenge: contain energy footprint


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Cost for power and cooling in data centers

• Year 2000– Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is

the primary goal, while the infrastructure to support it is assumed ready

• Year 2006– Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is a

given but the infrastructure to support deployment is a limited factor

• Year 2010– Three cooling challenges

• System, rack, data center• Year 2021

– Green designs imperative…

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, DOE, OIDA OPTOmism, IBM Research, IDC

Power and cooling spending out of control…


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Broadband technology

• Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology

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Denmark

Netherlan

ds

Norway

Switzer

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Iceland

SwedenKore

a

Finlan

d

Luxe

mbourg

Canada

United K

ingdom

Belgium

Franc

e

German

y

United S

tates

Austra

liaJa

pan

Austria

New Zea

landSpa

in

Irelan

dIta

ly

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ublic

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y

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al

Greec

e

Poland

Slovak R

epub

lic

Turke

y

Mexico

Subs

crib

ers

Other Fibre/LAN CableDSL

Source: OECD

What is the effect if graph is mostly red?


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Architecture evolution – FTTH access

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, Lange, Deutsche Telekom AG

Power consumption expected to rise fast…


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Photonics will become

integrated...


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Moore’s Law photonics to follow?

Sources: UCSB, OIDA Photonics Integration Forum, Intel

CMOS very successful can we learn?


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PIC trends over 3 decades

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1000000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Com

pone

nt c

ount COBRA/35P

PhilipsOpto+LucentNTTInfineraFoundry

Focal planeFocal plane

Ana

log

Nanophotonic Integration Technology

GenericIntegration Technology

Dig

ital

Source: Meint Smit, TU/e OIDA forum Oct 2008

InP-Membrane on Silicon (IMOS)III-V on silicon (3-5OS)

Photonics is expected to become digital…


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Integrated photonics over 4 decades…

Courtesy of R. Nagarajan & M. Smit (LEOS Newsletter, 2007)1. S.E. Miller, 19692. I. Hayashi, 19703. J. Shibata, 19844. O. Wada, 19865. T. Koch, 19916. M. Zirngibl, 19957. C. Steenbergen, 19968. C. Herben, 19999. L. Coldren, 200210. Y. Yoshikuni, 200211. Y. Suzaki, 200212. M. Masanovic, 200313. ASIP/III-V, 200414. R. Nagarajan, 200515. R. Nagarajan, 200616. M. Kato, 200717. R. Nagarajan, 2007

Not shown (EDG-WDM):V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel dynamic equalizer, 2002;V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel power monitor, 2003;A. Densmore, 32-channel receiver, 2005;V. Tolstikhin, 3-channel ONU triplexer, 2005

Sources: OneChip Photonics; Valery Tolstikhin

1

10

1000

Poised for big impact in fiber comms

100


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New optical technologies for the edge

• Consumer bandwidth demands are the driving force – Applications, architectures, services, content distribution

• Photonic Integrated Circuits– Lower costs– Use less space– Consume less power– Better performance

• FTTH Delivers– Very high bandwidth– Network efficiencies– Future proof technology

Source: OneChip Photonics

PICs are the economical solution…


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Photonic integrated circuits save power

• Important roles for green photonics in reducing power consumption in communications and computing– Short term – further deployment and upgrading of optical communications

links with lower mW/Gb/s, also leads to reduced cooling requirements and improved cooling capability

– Medium and Long term – new computing hardware architectures employing optical interfaces between processing, logic, and memory will lead to higher flops/W

Sources: Lightwire, IBM

Tighter integration leads to lower power


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What do we need to do technically?

• Even more sophisticated modulation formats– Current systems at 40 Gbps use DPSK– Coming systems will be Polarization Multiplexed QPSK with coherent

detection– Next: 16QAM? Multi-ring constellations?

• More optical bandwidth– Beyond C+L band

• Higher power fibers• Photonic integrated circuits

– Game-changer for the edge (FTTH)• New laser diode/modulator schemes maybe non

semiconductor ????

If we don’t act this will take place in Asia…

US is in danger of losing leadership in OE R&D


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Data-centers need to scale also...


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The Ethernet ecosystem evolves

Research, Education and Government Facilities

ResearchNetworks

Broadband Access

Data Centers and Enterprise

EnterpriseNetworks

Content Providers

ContentNetworks

Internet BackboneNetworks

Internet BackboneNetworks

Internet eXchange andInterconnection Points

BroadbandAccess Networks

Source: J. D/Ambrosia, Force10 Networks

Datacenters high speed intersections


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Why higher speed Ethernet?

Fundamental bottlenecks are happening everywhereIncreased # of users

Increased accessrates and methods

Increased services++ =

As demonstrated by the number of ISPs: Comcast, AOL, YahooBB, NTT, Cox, EasyNet, Rogers, BT, ...

EFM, xDSL, WiMax, xPON, Cable, WiFi,3G/4G…

YouTube, BitTorrent, VOD, Facebook, Kazaa, Netflix, iTunes, 2nd life, Gaming…

Source: IEEE 802.3 HSSG Tutorial, Nov 2007.

Bandwidth explosioneverywhere

Higher demands on the network


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Demand outpacing equipment development

2006 2008

2Tb

10Tb

2010

Switch/router R&D trend

Internet datacenterdemand


Data-centers are ‘under pressure’


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Future data-center evolution…

64 x 1Tb linksor

640 x 100GE links

160 x 100GE linkswith 5x100GE LAGs

16Tb/switch



400G+ solutions are needed


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Calibration with broadband leader

(Japan)


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Expansion of Broadband Traffic Amount in Japan (Oct 2009)

Source: Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

10-1

1

10

102

103

Inte

rnet

Tra

ffic （G

bps）

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20081997 19981999 2000 2001

Peak Traffic of domestic major IX*1

Average Traffic of domestic major IX*1

Broadband service subscriber’stotal traffic amount (Estimate)

*1 domestic major Internet eXchanges: NSPIXP, JPIX & JPNAP

2009

104

30% increase per year

Internet traffic in Japan Tbps


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Broadband Services in Japan (Oct 2009)

Year

Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar.Mar.2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

0

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35N

umbe

r of S

ubsc

riber

s (m

illio

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Targetof NTT@2010

30

Population : 128 million in Japan (2005)Households : 49 million

totalFTTHDSLCATV

Fiber based broadband obvious


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Japan’s R&D example 10Tbps• Development of next-generation high-efficiency network

device technology– The goal of this project is to increase the speed and efficiency of

router switches and storage area networks for the purpose of energy conservation.

• Development of device technology to create edge routers capable of over 10Tbps

• Development of low-power-consumption device technology with a transmission capacity of 16Gbps on LAN-SAN, and demonstration of networks using such technology

• As noted by OITDA – Japanese trade association (as per OIDA in Washington DC), October 2009

Japan aggressive on R&D…Sources: OIDA research, IOA


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END


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22-Jul-10, Slide prepared by David Williams

Michael Lebby, PhD MBA DEng CEngGeneral Manager & Chief Technology Officer

TranslucentEarth Abundant Materials Technology

Translucent Inc952 Commercial St

[email protected]

Palo Alto, CA94303

Thank you for listening

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Optical components and networking