Opportunities with Concrete Pavements

Stewardship, Cost Effectiveness and InnovationNorth Carolina Concrete Pavement Conference

Durham, North CarolinaNovember 17th, 2016

Leif G. Wathne, P.E.American Concrete Pavement Association

Miles of Public Road?

Vehicle Miles?

How far is 105B miles?

North Carolina – Transportation by the NumbersSource: USDOT BTS

North Carolina – Transportation by the Numbers

<4cents/VMT

Source: USDOT BTS

Source: NCDOT

Challenge

Lots of movement of people and goodsSystem is saturatedMassive economic impacts

Growth is predicated on efficient movementHuge funding gap (not financing…)

What is Concrete Pavement’s role?

Relates to COMPETITION!

Probably the single-most overlooked aspect of getting the most from our pavement investment!● Including concrete can spur competition!● This provides VALUE to the agency/owner● Agencies benefit from presence of both

pavement types! ● About extending the purchasing power of

the highway dollar

Why is competition good…?

Spurs Innovation

Lower Prices

Improves Quality

Lowers Risk

Competition Lowers Material Prices

Not about concrete pavement being better…Agencies benefit from having more than one alternativeNo engineering reasons why concrete pavement cannot be part of an agency’s program

We know this from WI, IA, CA, TX, FAA, DOD etc.Smooth, fast, cost effective, etc.

Competition is foundational to the American way of doing business…

COMPETITION BETWEEN PAVEMENT INDUSTRIES ASSURES THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF COMPETITION

Multiple contractors does not assure competition takes place at all levels of the supply chain

Paving Project

Asphalt Contractors• Contractor 1• Contractor 2• Contractor 3• Contractor 4• etc

Asphalt Material Suppliers

Contractor Competition

Limits competition at the supplier level, which can limits

effectiveness

First Level 2nd Level

Paving Project

Asphalt Contractors• Contractor 1• Contractor 2• Contractor 3• Contractor 4• etc

Asphalt Material Suppliers

Concrete Contractors• Contractor 1• Contractor 2• Contractor 3• etc

Concrete/Cement Material Suppliers

Industry Competition

Assures Competition happens between contractors and

suppliers

Competition Spurs Innovation

Forces innovation and technology developmentMakes both products better and the public benefitsConcrete pavement advancements come from places with healthy competition e.g. slipform, stringless, two-lift, concrete overlays, NGCS, fabric interlayer.

Competition Improves Quality

Healthy competing industries can afford to invest in

TrainingEducationQuality Control

Investing in workforce lowers risk and reduces costsCompetence and quality benefit agencies…

Of course, this is nothing new…

Early years of US Federal Aid ProgramPublic instances of fraud, abuse, collusion…Congress and public lost confidence in administration of program (largest ever - $27B)Investigations (FBI, GAO, Blatnik)BPR AASHO compelled to develop guidelines to restore confidence in program

The Role of Competition

1960 AASHO Guide on Project ProceduresIncludes Pavement Type Selection…

1960 AASHO Guide

• Covers a lot of information… aim “to assure the public of full value for their highway dollar.”

• Established process based on transparency, and sound engineering while leveraging benefits of free market dynamic through healthy and spirited competition (includes host of factors)

• Despite advancements in design and modeling, authors warn that PTS process only meaningful in presence of competition between industries.

1960 AASHO Guide

● In section on cost comparisons (LCCA): doubt as to the validity [of such analysis] arises in the case where on[e] type of pavement has been given monopoly status by the long-term exclusion of a competitive type.

● I.e., the cost-data is not meaningful… ● “…desirable that monopoly situations

be avoided…”● Highway officials recognized the benefits

of establishing competing industries.

So… What’s the Problem?

Competition is often not recognized or considered appropriately by decision makers todayAgencies are NOT adequately capitalizing on the benefits of competition between paving industries

Competitive Paving Program?

90-100%

80-90%

70+80%

From 2013, 5-year rolling average balance of DOT pavement type, based on Oman Systems bid tabulations.

2013 Industry Market Analysis

<70%

Competitive Paving Program

ACPA analysis of current bid tabs confirm benefits

-------------> Increasing Competition ------------->

2013 weighted unit asphalt bid price vs. five-year average balance of DOT pavement type usage

Source: OMAN, Bid Tabs Software – Public Data.

Competitive Paving Program

ACPA analysis of current bid tabs confirm benefits

-------------> Increasing Competition ------------->

Source: OMAN, Bid Tabs Software – Public Data.

Theory of Competition Threshold & Price Impact

MIT

Perception of threat

Source: Porter, M. E. (1980). Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors. New York: Free Press.

MIT - University study of impacts of competition

MIT performed a comprehensive multivariate analysis of DOT bid pricing data

10 years of data, 298,000 pay items, 164,000 jobs, 47 state DOTs…

“…increasing competition between paving material industries lower paving costs for both asphalt and concrete jobs. This is likely to result in significant savings for DOT’s and taxpayers.”

The Role of Competition – Diversification & Risk

In Brief…

● Competitive two-pavement system lowers prices, spurs innovation, improves quality, and can enhance network performance● Supported by guidance, gut and bid data...

● Allows agencies to build more pavements (~15% more) for same investment, and manage assets more cost efficiently…

● Yet, here we are…

What can you do right now ?

1. Signal that you are committing to a program of concrete pavement projects - industry will respond!

2. Address concrete pavement first-costOptimize pavement designs – use MEPDG to incorporate features that are cost effective (i.e. performance benefits outweigh lifecycle costs)Develop project-specific solutions – there is more than one way to meet performance requirements.Examples: Widened lane, free-draining base

Example: Granular Subbases

Up to 2000 trucks/day

KS – Less than 9M ESALS; otherwise CTBOK – Used in combination with CTB & Fabrics

KS

OK

Lower volume state routes only

Interstate rest areas, lower volume state routes only

Lower volume state routes

Predominate Use

Source: 2016 survey of ACPA Chapters

2. Optimization Opportunities for ConcreteEach Design Feature Needs Need to Balance Performance and Cost

Feature Benefit or OptionsUse 13-ft Widened Outside Lanes

Shifts loading to “interior loading” (reduces thickness)

Shorten Joint Spacing Reduces curling & warping stresses (reduces thickness but does increase joint sawing and dowel costs)

Change Shoulder Design Concrete vs AC vs RCC; reduced /tapered thickness; no dowels; different mix, etc.

Optimized aggregate gradation Reduces cement content and creates denser mix

Change base typeGranular vs asphalt treated vs cement treated ; reduce thickness,: Dense graded vs permeable; use fabrics/geotextiles

Use single 1/8”-wide single saw cut and filled (not sealed)

Removes second sawing operation and reduces noise

Use Longitudinal tining Reduces noise

Change Subgrade Stabilization none vs lime vs lime/cement vs cement vscement/FA, etc

What can you do right now ? (continued)

3. Diversify your concrete solutions portfolio across applications

• Benefit from competition in more than the reconstruction or new construction market.

• Also applies to treatments on asphalt and composite pavements.

• Reduces long term risk…• Example: Concrete Overlays

overlays.acpa.org

Example: Recent Example of Concrete OverlayState Highway 13 – North of the city of Craig, CO

SH 13 Existing Condition before overlay

Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) Alternative• 2-in SX(75) PG 58-34 (surface AC) over 4-in of

SX(75) PG 58-28 (Base AC) over 8-in of FDR• Initial Const = $5,385,980.85• Rehab & Maint = $2,456,560• Users Cost = $596,170• Total Life Cycle Cost = $8,438,710.85

Concrete Alternative • 6-in Unbonded Concrete Overlay on Asphalt • Initial Const = $5,338,308.82• Rehab & Maint = $1,674,060• Users Costs = $718,490• Total Life Cycle Cost = $7,730,858.82

Bid December 2015 as AD/AB

Concrete overlay was $47k lower in Initial cost & $708k Lower in Life Cycle Costs

USE OF CONCRETE OVERLAYS IS GROWING!Indicates that concrete overlays are cost effective and performing well

On a National basis, concrete overlay are 16 to 17% of all concrete pavements placed

Source: ACPA market Data

3. Diversify solutions across applications

Category Treatment Techniques Materl. Used

Perform Period*

Pre

serv

atio

n

Preventive maintenance Crack/joint sealing AC 5-10

Corrective maintenance

Partial / full-depth repair and Slab replacement PCC 5-15

Concrete patch using asphalt AC 1-3Joint LTE restoration - 5-15Diamond grinding & grooving - 10-15

Minor Rehabilitation

Open gradation friction course AC 5-10Thin asphalt overlay (2-4") AC 5-15Bonded concrete overlay (2-4") PCC 10-20Thin concrete overlay (4-8") PCC 10-20+RCC overlay (4-8”) RCC 10-20+

Major Rehabilitation

Asphalt overlay (4-8") AC 5-20Asphalt overlay (>8") AC 10-20Concrete overlay (8-12") PCC 20-35+RCC overlay (>8”) RCC 15-25+

ReconstructionNew asphalt AC 10-20New concrete PCC 25-35+New Roller Compacted Concrete RCC 15-30+

Treatments applicable to existing Concrete Pavements

3. Diversify solutions across applications

Category Treatment Techniques Materl. Used

Perform Period*

Pre

serv

atio

n

Preventive maintenance

Seals (chip/fog/slurry/micro-) AC 1-5Asphalt Rejuvenation AC 1-5

Corrective maintenance Asphalt Patching/Pothole filling AC 1-5

Minor Rehabilitation

Asphalt cold/hot in place recycling AC 5-10Open gradation friction course AC 5-10Full Depth Reclamation w/ cement AC 10-20Mill / Thin Asphalt overlay (2-4") AC 5-15Thin asphalt overlay (2-4") AC 8-15Ultrathin concrete overlay (2-4") PCC 8-15Thin concrete overlay (4-8") PCC 10-20+RCC overlay (4-8”) RCC 10-20+

Major Rehabilitation

Asphalt overlay (4-8") AC 5-20Asphalt overlay (>8") AC 10-20Concrete overlay (8-12") PCC 20-35+RCC overlay (>8”) RCC 15-25+

ReconstructionNew asphalt AC 10-20New concrete PCC 25-35+New Roller Compacted Concrete RCC 15-30+

Treatments applicable to existing Asphalt & Composite Pavements

Opportunity with Concrete Pavements…

With COMPETITION between paving industries come opportunities to enhance stewardship through:

Cost savingsInnovationQuality Performance

Enabling NCDOT to better address the transportation needs and the impending funding gap.

Thank You!

www.acpa.org apps.acpa.org | ACPA Application Library

cal.acpa.org | ACPA-affiliated Chapter resources.acpa.org | Resource Center

wikipave.org | ACPA’s paving wiki

www.cptechcenter.org

MIT CSH - Concrete job model predictors

WHAT MATTERS? PRICE SIGNIFICANCE

Volume of concrete on job

5-year rolling average:Spending on bids per state-year5-year rolling average:Share of spending on concrete

Mass of asphalt also on job

Concrete percent of bid

Count of bidders on jobs

Statistical analysis results for concrete initial prices

$$$

$$$

$$

$-$$$

$

MIT CSH - Asphalt job model predictors

WHAT MATTERS? PRICE SIGNIFICANCE

5-year rolling average:Spending on bids per state-year5-year rolling average:Mass of asphalt per state-year

Count of bidders on jobs

Mass of asphalt on job

Share of spending on concrete per state-year

Asphalt percent of bidInstability of Share of spending on concrete per state-year

Volume of concrete also on job

Statistical analysis results for asphalt initial prices

$$$

$$$

$$$$

$$-$$$$$-$$$$$-$$$

$$

Competitive Paving Program

Same data viewed through a break-even analysis…

MORE PAVEMENT FOR SAME INVESTMENT!

The Role of Competiton

● No US state spends more than 40% of paving dollar on concrete – on average

● MAJORITY of US states spend less than 15% of paving dollars on concrete pavement – on average

● Several US states spend no money on concrete pavement – all asphalt (no diversification – high exposure)

● As competition increases between industries, unit costs drop for both, regardless of PTS process…

● CONFIRMS what officials recognized 58 years ago