OpeyemiZubair_ThesisDOC

8/16/2019 OpeyemiZubair_ThesisDOC

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CHANGE DETECTION IN LAND USE AND LAND COVER USING

REMOTE SENSING DATA AND GIS

(A case study of Ilori ad its e!iros i "#ara State$%

&'

U&AIR) A'ODE*I O+E'EMI

MATRIC NO$ ,-,./0

A +RO*ECT SU&MITTED TO THE DE+ARTMENT O1 GEOGRA+H')

UNIVERSIT' O1 I&ADAN IN +ARTIAL 1UL1ILMENT 1OR THE

A2ARD O1 MASTER O1 SCIENCE (MSc% DEGREE IN

GEOGRA+HICAL IN1ORMATION S'STEMS

OCTO&ER) /..3


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CERTI1ICATION

This project has been read and approved as meeting the requirements for the

award of Master of Science (MSc) degree in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in

the Department of Geography !niversity of Ibadan Ibadan"

444444444444$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

SURVE'OR R$" 'USU1

SU+ERVISOR

4444444444444444$

+RO1$ A$O A2ETO

HEAD O1 DE+ARTMENT

4444444444444444$

E5TERNAL SU+ERVISOR

ii


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DEDICATION

This project is dedicated to God and my #oving caring and industrious mother

whose effort and sacrifice has made my dream of having this degree a rea#ity" $ords

cannot adequate#y e%press my deep gratitude to you" I pray you wi## #ive #ong to reap the

fruits of your #abor"

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AC"NO2LEDGEMENT

To the most &igh God be g#ory great things &e has done" I ac'now#edge our great

provisions protections and support throughout the duration of this course"

My appreciation a#so goes to my Dad Dr" S"D ubair for his effort and suggestions

towards my progress in #ife

I cannot but appreciate the constructive suggestions criticisms and encouragement of my

supervisor in person of Surveyor *"+ usuf who a##owed in particu#ar the use of internet in

communicating over the #ong distance"

I remain indebted to the entire staff of Space ,pp#ications -ationa# Space *esearch and

Deve#opment ,gency ,buja particu#ar#y Mr" .ayo /moyajowo My 0o#usho 0agbeja Mr"

Mustapha ,#iu Mr" 1ohn -wagwu Mr" Ibi#ewa Ms" *a'ia ,bdu##ahi and other co##eagues2 .ayo

/gunde#e 0o#aranmi /#ujuyigbe Tu'ur Tomi and particu#ar#y /#oojo .amiji who has been a

good friend and confidant2 you have a## been there for me"

To my sib#ings Toyin Ibu'un /#uwaseun and particu#ar#y *otimi for his financia# and

mora# support throughout the duration of the course2 I say God wi## reward you great#y"

To my unc#e Michae# .amide#e I say you wi## a#ways be remembered for your support

and interest in my progress"

My than's a#so go to 3hiwuogwu !che and I'ena who encouraged me in the first p#ace

to put in for the course"

I cannot but remember my roommate and friends ,'ino#a ,'inwumiju and Meshach

Ijagbemi for their mora# support during this course"

The efforts of my #ecturers in the department in persons of Dr 0abiyi 4rof ,yeni Mr"

5e'an Taiwo Dr Dada Mr" ,de#eye and 4rof ,bumere (of b#essed memory) at equipping me for

the cha##enges ahead is we## ac'now#edged"

I a#so ac'now#edge the G#oba# 5and 6over 0aci#ity (!niversity of Mary#and) for the

provision free 5andsat data which was used for this project"

0ina##y deep gratitude goes to the entire students of GIS !niversity of Ibadan

particu#ar#y those who have both served as va#uab#e c#assmates and c#ose friends in persons of

4au# ,7ogor +emi ,gboo#a Meena'shi Singh Itimi 8ictoria Tope ,de#aja ,dewuyi 4e#umi

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99999999999999" "": 0indings Imp#ications and *ecommendations999999999999" "; Summary and 6onc#usion99999999999999999999"

RE1ERENCES999999999999999999999999999""


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LIST O1 TA&LES

TA&LE +AGES

Transition 4robabi#ity tab#e999999999999999;B

="? 4rojected 5and !se 5and 6over for ;C:>999999999""


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LIST O1 MA+S

MA+S +AGE

I :BA; 5and !se 5and 6over map of I#orin9999999999;:

II :BE? 5and !se 5and 6over map of I#orin999999999"""";>

III ;CC: 5and !se 5and 6over map of I#orin9999999999;?

8 :BA;FE? /ver#ay of .ui#t@up 5and9999999999999;A

8I E?F;CC: /ver#ay of .ui#t@up 5and9999999999999;E

I8 ;C:> 5and !se 5and 6over map of I#orin9999999999 /ver#ay of .ui#t@up 5and9999999999999


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LIST O1 1IGURES

1IGURES +AGE

I :BA; 5and !se 5and 6over 6ategories of I#orin =C

II :BE? 5and !se 5and 6over 6ategories of I#orin =:

III ;CC: 5and !se 5and 6over 6ategories of I#orin =;

I8 ;C:> 5and !se 5and 6over 6ategories of I#orin =<

i%


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%


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CHA+TER ONE

INTRODUCTION

,$, &ac78roud to t9e Study

Studies have shown that there remains on#y few #andscapes on the 3arth that are

sti## in there natura# state" Due to anthropogenic activities the 3arth surface is being

significant#y a#tered in some manner and mans presence on the 3arth and his use of #and

has had a profound effect upon the natura# environment thus resu#ting into an observab#e

pattern in the #and useF#and cover over time"

The #and useF#and cover pattern of a region is an outcome of natura# and socio H

economic factors and their uti#i7ation by man in time and space" 5and is becoming a

scarce resource due to immense agricu#tura# and demographic pressure" &ence

information on #and use F #and cover and possibi#ities for their optima# use is essentia# for

the se#ection p#anning and imp#ementation of #and use schemes to meet the increasing

demands for basic human needs and we#fare" This information a#so assists in monitoring

the dynamics of #and use resu#ting out of changing demands of increasing popu#ation"5and use and #and cover change has become a centra# component in current

strategies for managing natura# resources and monitoring environmenta# changes" The

advancement in the concept of vegetation mapping has great#y increased research on #and

use #and cover change thus providing an accurate eva#uation of the spread and hea#th of

the wor#ds forest grass#and and agricu#tura# resources has become an important priority"

8iewing the 3arth from space is now crucia# to the understanding of the inf#uence

of mans activities on his natura# resource base over time" In situations of rapid and often

unrecorded #and use change observations of the earth from space provide objective

information of human uti#i7ation of the #andscape" /ver the past years data from 3arth

sensing sate##ites has become vita# in mapping the 3arths features and infrastructures

managing natura# resources and studying environmenta# change"

:


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*emote Sensing (*S) and Geographic Information System (GIS) are now

providing new too#s for advanced ecosystem management" The co##ection of remote#y

sensed data faci#itates the synoptic ana#yses of 3arth @ system function patterning and

change at #oca# regiona# and g#oba# sca#es over time2 such data a#so provide an important#in' between intensive #oca#i7ed eco#ogica# research and regiona# nationa# and

internationa# conservation and management of bio#ogica# diversity ($i#'ie and 0inn

:BB?)"

Therefore attempt wi## be made in this study to map out the status of #and use #and

cover of I#orin between :BA; and ;CC: with a view to detecting the #and consumption

rate and the changes that has ta'en p#ace in this status particu#ar#y in the bui#t@up #and so

as to predict possib#e changes that might ta'e p#ace in this status in the ne%t := years

using both Geographic Information System and *emote Sensing data"

,$/ State:et of t9e +ro;le:

I#orin the +wara State capita# has witnessed remar'ab#e e%pansion growth and

deve#opmenta# activities such as bui#ding road construction deforestation and many

other anthropogenic activities since its inception in :B?A just #i'e many other state

capita#s in -igeria" This has therefore resu#ted in increased #and consumption and a

modification and a#terations in the status of her #and use #and cover over time without any

detai#ed and comprehensive attempt (as provided by a *emote Sensing data and GIS) to

eva#uate this status as it changes over time with a view to detecting the #and consumption

rate and a#so ma'e attempt to predict same and the possib#e changes that may occur in

this status so that p#anners can have a basic too# for p#anning" It is therefore necessary for

a study such as this to be carried out if I#orin wi## avoid the associated prob#ems of a

growing and e%panding city #i'e many others in the wor#d"

,$- *ustificatio for t9e Study

Indeed attempt has been made to document the growth of I#orin in the past but that

from an aeria# photography (/#orunfemi :BE


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use 5and cover and particu#ar#y sett#ement e%pansion in the area requires a more

powerfu# and sophisticated system such as GIS and *emote Sensing data which provides

a genera# e%tensive synoptic coverage of #arge areas than area photography

,$


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&er geo#ogy consists of pre@6ambrian basement comp#e% with an e#evation which

ranges between ;A


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,$3 Defiitio of Ter:s

(i) *emote sensing

6an be defined as any process whereby information is gathered about an objectarea or phenomenon without being in contact with it" Given this rather genera#

definition the term has come to be associated more specifica##y with the gauging of

interactions between earth surface materia#s and e#ectromagnetic energy" (Idrisi


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CHA+TER T2O

/$, LITERATURE REVIE2

,ccording to Meyer :BBB every parce# of #and on the 3arths surface is unique inthe cover it possesses" 5and use and #and cover are distinct yet c#ose#y #in'ed

characteristics of the 3arths surface" The use to which we put #and cou#d be gra7ing

agricu#ture urban deve#opment #ogging and mining among many others" $hi#e #and

cover categories cou#d be crop#and forest wet#and pasture roads urban areas among

others" The term #and cover origina##y referred to the 'ind and state of vegetation such as

forest or grass cover but it has broadened in subsequent usage to inc#ude other things

such as human structures soi# type biodiversity surface and ground water (Meyer

:BB>)"

5and use affects #and cover and changes in #and cover affect #and use" , change in

either however is not necessari#y the product of the other" 6hanges in #and cover by #and

use do not necessari#y imp#y degradation of the #and" &owever many shifting #and use

patterns driven by a variety of socia# causes resu#t in #and cover changes that affects

biodiversity water and radiation budgets trace gas emissions and other processes that

come together to affect c#imate and biosphere (*iebsame Meyer and Turner :BB=)"

5and cover can be a#tered by forces other than anthropogenic" -atura# events such

as weather f#ooding fire c#imate f#uctuations and ecosystem dynamics may a#so initiate

modifications upon #and cover" G#oba##y #and cover today is a#tered principa##y by direct

human use by agricu#ture and #ivestoc' raising forest harvesting and management and

urban and suburban construction and deve#opment" There are a#so incidenta# impacts on

#and cover from other human activities such as forest and #a'es damaged by acid rain

from fossi# fue# combustion and crops near cities damaged by tropospheric o7one

resu#ting from automobi#e e%haust (Meyer :BB>)"

&ence in order to use #and optima##y it is not on#y necessary to have the

information on e%isting #and use #and cover but a#so the capabi#ity to monitor the

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dynamics of #and use resu#ting out of both changing demands of increasing popu#ation

and forces of nature acting to shape the #andscape"

6onventiona# ground methods of #and use mapping are #abor intensive time

consuming and are done re#ative#y infrequent#y" These maps soon become outdated withthe passage of time particu#ar#y in a rapid changing environment" In fact according to

/#orunfemi (:BE


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Liaomei and *ong ing 5"" in :BBB noted that information about change is

necessary for updating #and cover maps and the management of natura# resources" The

information may be obtained by visiting sites on the ground and or e%tracting it from

remote#y sensed data"6hange detection is the process of identifying differences in the state of an object

or phenomenon by observing it at different times (Singh :BEB)" 6hange detection is an

important process in monitoring and managing natura# resources and urban deve#opment

because it provides quantitative ana#ysis of the spatia# distribution of the popu#ation of

interest"

Mac#eod and 6ongation (:BBE) #ist four aspects of change detection which are

important when monitoring natura# resources

i" Detecting the changes that have occurred

ii" Identifying the nature of the change

iii" Measuring the area e%tent of the change

iv" ,ssessing the spatia# pattern of the change

The basis of using remote sensing data for change detection is that changes in #and cover

resu#t in changes in radiance va#ues which can be remote#y sensed" Techniques to perform

change detection with sate##ite imagery have become numerous as a resu#t of increasing

versati#ity in manipu#ating digita# data and increasing computer power"

, wide variety of digita# change detection techniques have been deve#oped over

the #ast two decades" Singh (:BEB) and 6oppin N .auer (:BB?) summari7e e#even

different change detection a#gorithms that were found to be documented in the #iterature

by :BB>" These inc#ude

:" Mono@tempora# change de#ineation"

;" De#ta or post c#assification comparisons"

" Image differencing"

?" Mu#titempora# #inear data transformation"

E


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A" 6hange vector ana#ysis"

E" Image regression"

B" Mu#titempora# biomass inde%

:C" .ac'ground subtraction"::" Image ratioing

In some instances #and use #and cover change may resu#t in environmenta# socia#

and economic impacts of greater damage than benefit to the area (Moshen , :BBB)"

Therefore data on #and use change are of great importance to p#anners in monitoring the

consequences of #and use change on the area" Such data are of va#ue to resources

management and agencies that p#an and assess #and use patterns and in mode#ing and

predicting future changes"

Shosheng and +utie# (:BB=) investigated the advantages of remote sensing

techniques in re#ation to fie#d surveys in providing a regiona# description of vegetation

cover" The resu#ts of their research were used to produce four vegetation cover maps that

provided new information on spatia# and tempora# distributions of vegetation in this area

and a##owed regiona# quantitative assessment of the vegetation cover"

,rvind 6" 4andy and M" S" -athawat (;CC?) carried out a study on #and use #and

cover mapping of 4anch'u#a ,mba#a and amunanger districts &angana State in India"

They observed that the heterogeneous c#imate and physiographic conditions in these

districts has resu#ted in the deve#opment of different #and use #and cover in these districts

an eva#uation by digita# ana#ysis of sate##ite data indicates that majority of areas in these

districts are used for agricu#tura# purpose" The hi##y regions e%hibit fair deve#opment of

reserved forests" It is inferred that #and use #and cover pattern in the area are genera##y

contro##ed by agro H c#imatic conditions ground water potentia# and a host of other

factors"

It has been noted over time through series of studies that 5andsat Thematic

Mapper is adequate for genera# e%tensive synoptic coverage of #arge areas" ,s a resu#t

this reduces the need for e%pensive and time consuming ground surveys conducted for

B


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va#idation of data" Genera##y sate##ite imagery is ab#e to provide more frequent data

co##ection on a regu#ar basis un#i'e aeria# photographs which a#though may provide more

geometrica##y accurate maps is #imited in respect to its e%tent of coverage and e%pensive2

which means it is not often used"In :BE> the !"S Geo#ogica# Survey carried out a research program to produce

:;>CCCC sca#e #and cover maps for ,#as'a using 5andsat MSS data (0it7 4atric' H et a#

:BEA)"The State of Mary#and &ea#th *esources 4#anning 6ommission a#so used 5andsat

TM data to create a #and cover data set for inc#usion in their Mary#and Geographic

Information (M,GI) database" ,## seven TM bands were used to produce a ;: H c#ass

#and cover map (3/S,T :BB;)" ,#so in :BB; the Georgia Department of -atura#

*esources comp#eted mapping the entire State of Georgia to identify and quantify

wet#ands and other #and cover types using 5andsat Thematic Mapper O data (3*D,S

:BB;)" The State of southern 6aro#ina 5ands *esources 6onservation 6ommission

deve#oped a detai#ed #and cover map composed of :B c#asses from TM data (3/S,T

:BB=)" This mapping effort emp#oyed mu#ti@tempora# imagery as we## as mu#ti@spectra#

data during c#assification"

,n ana#ysis of #and use and #and cover changes using the combination of MSS

5andsat and #and use map of Indonesia (Dimyati :BB>) revea#s that #and use #and cover

change were eva#uated by using remote sensing to ca#cu#ate the inde% of changes which

was done by the superimposition of #and use #and cover images of :BA; :BE= and #and

use maps of :BBC" This was done to ana#y7e the pattern of change in the area which was

rather difficu#t with the traditiona# method of surveying as noted by /#orunfemi in :BE<

when he was using aeria# photographic approach to monitor urban #and use in deve#oping

countries with I#orin in -igeria as the case study"

Danie# et a# ;CC; in their comparison of #and use #and cover change

detection methods made use of > methods vi72 traditiona# post H c#assification

cross tabu#ation cross corre#ation ana#ysis neura# networ's 'now#edge H based

e%pert systems and image segmentation and object H oriented c#assification" ,

combination of direct T: and T; change detection as we## as post c#assification

:C


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ana#ysis was emp#oyed" -ine #and use #and cover c#asses were se#ected for

ana#ysis" They observed that there are merits to each of the five methods

e%amined and that at the point of their research no sing#e approach can so#ve the

#and use change detection prob#em",#so ,deniyi and /mojo#a (:BBB) in their #and use #and cover change

eva#uation in So'oto H *ima .asin of -orth H $estern -igeria based on ,rchiva#

*emote Sensing and GIS techniques used aeria# photographs 5andsat MSS

S4/T LSF4anchromatic image Transparency and Topographic map sheets to study

changes in the two dams (So'oto and Guronyo) between :B?; and :BE?" The wor'

revea#ed that #and use #and cover of both areas was unchanged before the

construction whi#e sett#ement a#one covered most part of the area" &owever

during the post @ dam era #and use F#and cover c#asses changed but with sett#ement

sti## remaining the #argest"

::


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CHA+TER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOG'

-$, Itroductio

The procedure adopted in this research wor' forms the basis for deriving statisticsof #and use dynamics and subsequent#y in the overa## the findings"

0ig :" 6artographic Mode#

/.136TI83S /0 5,-D !S3F5,-D 6/83*

D,T, ,6!ISITI/- *36/--,IS,-63 S!*83

D,T, 3-&,-63M3-T

4*/63SSI-G ,-DI-T3G*,TI/-

I-ITI,5 5,-D !S3 F5,-D

6/83* 65,SSI0I6,TI/-

D3835/4M3-T /0 ,

65,SSI0I6,TI/- S6&3M3

G*/!-D T*!T&I-G

3DITI-G /0 I-ITI,5 5,-D !S3F5,-D6/83* M,4S

0I-,5 4*/D!6TI/- /0 5,-D!S3F5,-D 6/83* M,4S

6&,-G3 D3T36TI/- ,-,5SIS .,S3D /-

5,-D !S3F5,-D 6/83* M,4 0/* 3,6&

3,*

6&,-G3 4*3DI6TI/- 0/* 45,--I-G

:;


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-$/ Data Ac>uired ad Source

0or the study 5andsat sate##ite images of +wara State were acquired for three

3pochs2 :BA; :BE? and ;CC:" .oth :BA; and :BE? were obtained from G#oba# 5and

6over 0aci#ity (G560) an 3arth Science Data Interface whi#e that of ;CC: was obtainedfrom -ationa# Space *esearch and Deve#opment ,gency in ,buja (-,S*D,)" Cn both

;CC: and :BE? images a notab#e feature can be observed which is the ,sa dam which

was not yet constructed as of :BA;"

It is a#so important to state that I#orin and its environs which were carved out using

the #oca# government boundary map and -igerian ,dministrative map was a#so obtained

from -,S*D," These were brought to !niversa# Transverse Marcator projection in 7one


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S?N DATA T'+E DATE O1

+RODUCTION

SCALE SOURCE

:"

;"

::=B> ,dministrative and #oca# government

Map of -igeria"

;CC> ::>:=CBC?

(view sca#e)

-,S*D,

? 5and use and infrastructure map

of I#orin"

:BE= ::>C CCC I#orin ,gricu#tur

Deve#opment

4roject

Tab#e


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*eference units m

!nit distance :

Minimum L ?>AC=?"E=EB=E

Ma%imum L ?EA>=:"E=EB=EMinimum B;:A:="=C


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.ased on the priori 'now#edge of the study area for over ;C years and a brief

reconnaissance survey with additiona# information from previous research in the study

area a c#assification scheme was deve#oped for the study area after ,nderson et a#

(:B?A)" The c#assification scheme deve#oped gives a rather broad c#assification where the#and use #and cover was identified by a sing#e digit"

Tab#e $ater bodies

:?


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-$3 Met9ods of Data Aalysis

Si% main methods of data ana#ysis were adopted in this study"

(i) 6a#cu#ation of the ,rea in hectares of the resu#ting #and useF#and cover types

for each study year and subsequent#y comparing the resu#ts"(ii) Mar'ov 6hain and 6e##u#ar ,utomata ,na#ysis for predicting change

(iii) /ver#ay /perations

(iv) Image thinning

(v) Ma%imum 5i'e#ihood 6#assification

(vi) 5and 6onsumption *ate and ,bsorption 6oefficient

The fist three methods above were used for identifying change in the #and use types"

Therefore they have been combined in this study"

The comparison of the #and use #and cover statistics assisted in identifying the

percentage change trend and rate of change between :BA; and ;CC:"

In achieving this the first tas' was to deve#op a tab#e showing the area in hectares

and the percentage change for each year (:BA; :BE? and ;CC:) measured against each

#and use #and cover type" 4ercentage change to determine the trend of change can then be

ca#cu#ated by dividing observed change by sum of changes mu#tip#ied by :CC

(trend) percentage change P observed change Q :CC

Sum of change

In obtaining annua# rate of change the percentage change is divided by :CC and

mu#tip#ied by the number of study year :BA; H :BE? (:=years) :BE? H ;CC: (:>years)

Going by the second method (Mar'ov 6hain ,na#ysis and 6e##u#ar ,utomata

,na#ysis) Mar'ov 6hain ,na#ysis is a convenient too# for mode#ing #and use change

when changes and processes in the #andscape are difficu#t to describe" , Mar'ovian

process is one in which the future state of a system can be mode#ed pure#y on the basis of

the immediate#y preceding state" Mar'ovian chain ana#ysis wi## describe #and use change

from one period to another and use this as the basis to project future changes" This is

:A


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achieved by deve#oping a transition probabi#ity matri% of #and use change from time one

to time two which shows the nature of change whi#e sti## serving as the basis for

projecting to a #ater time period "The transition probabi#ity may be accurate on a per

category basis but there is no 'now#edge of the spatia# distribution of occurrences withineach #and use category" &ence 6e##u#ar ,utomata (6,) was used to add spatia# character

to the mode#"

6,RMar'ov uses the output from the Mar'ov 6hain ,na#ysis particu#ar#y

Transition ,rea fi#e to app#y a contiguity fi#ter to grow outJ #and use from time two to a

#ater time period" In essence the 6, wi## deve#op a spatia##y e%p#icit weighting more

heavi#y areas that pro%imate to e%isting #and uses" This wi## ensure that #and use change

occurs pro%imate to e%isting #i'e #and use c#asses and not who##y random"

/ver#ay operations which is the #ast method of the three identifies the actua#

#ocation and magnitude of change a#though this was #imited to the bui#t@up #and" .oo#ean

#ogic was app#ied to the resu#t through the rec#ass modu#e of idrisi


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5","6 P , measure of change in consumption of new urban #and by each unit

increase in urban popu#ation

.oth the ;CC: and ;C:> popu#ation figures were estimated from the :BB:

and the estimated ;CC: popu#ation figures of I#orin respective#y using therecommended -ationa# 4opu#ation 6ommission (-46) ;":K growth rate as

obtained from the :B?


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DATA ANAL'SIS

AB?>">A


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LAND USE LAND COVER M655000 660000 665000 670000 675000

925000

930000

935000

940000

945000

950000

M,4 I" Derived from #andsat image of I#orin in :BA;

:B?A which is just five years o#d from the date of creation to the date the image was

ta'en"

,#so farming seems to be practiced moderate#y occupying ;>K of the tota#

c#asses" This may be due to the fact that the city is just moving away from the rather

traditiona# setting where farming seems to form the basis for #iving" ,part from this the

time of the year in which the area was imaged which happens to fa## within the onset of

hamattan cou#d a#so be a major contributing factor to the observed c#assification

contributing to the high percentage of waste #and and the #ow percentage of forest #and"

;:


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$ater body a#so seems to be arbitrari#y e%aggerated in the c#assification due to the

aforementioned prob#em in section :BA;FE? C"CB

:BE? C"C; E?F;CC: C"CC>

;CC: C"C:Tab#e =";":

'EAR +O+ULATION 1IGURE SOURCE

:BAA =CCCCC 345,- G*/!4 :BAA

:BE= =ECCCC /3G!- :BE?

;CC: ?EBACC *3S3,*6&3*S 3STIM,T3

Tab#e =";"; 4opu#ation figure of I#orin in :BAA :BE= and ;CC:

It shou#d be noted here that the c#osest year popu#ation avai#ab#e to each study year

as shown above were used in generating both the 5and 6onsumption *ates and the 5and

,bsorption 6oefficients as given in tab#e =";":

;;


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$,ST3 5,-D :=:;=";=C.!I5T@!4 5,-D A>C=">=C; E :::A? C

Tab#e ="< 5and use #and cover change of I#orin and its environs :BA; :BE? and ;CC:

0rom tab#e =" to C"C; and #and absorption coefficient by C"CB between

:BA; and :BE?" Many of these projects inc#ude the ,rmy barrac's at Sobi ,dewo#e&ousing 3state the Internationa# ,irport -iger *iver .asin ,uthority &eadquarters

!niversity of I#orin among many others which a## encouraged migration into the city"

The period between :BE? and ;CC: witnessed a drop in the rate at which the

physica# e%pansion of the city was going as against :BA; and :BE?" 0or instance the

;


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bui#t@up #and on#y increased by :K as against the EK increase between :BA; and :BE?"

This is a#so evident in the drop observed in the #and absorption coefficient from C"CB

between :BA; and :BE?" In deed the austerity measure 'nown as (S,4) introduced into

the country at this period to restore the countrys economy cou#d be a major factor towhat was witnessed at this period"

,#so there was a genera# increase of AK in farm #and which is evident in the AK

reduction of waste #and and :K reduction of forest #and" This may be as a resu#t of the

shift bac' towards farming after the initia# e%citement of the oi# boom which attracted

many peop#e from farming to white co##ar jobs"

0urthermore water body seems to remain at :K though there are s#ight differences

in the tota# hectare between this period" This was not so in :BA; because ,sa river was

not yet dammed which was the case in the period between :BE? and ;CC: as shown in the

maps"

;=


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LAND USE LAND COVER MAP OF

655000 660000 665000 670000 675000

925000

930000

935000

940000

945000

950000

M,4 II" Derived from #andsat image of I#orin in :BE?


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away from the city center fo##owing the concentric theory of city growth postu#ated by

6hrista##er (:B


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city center" These therefore suggest that there might be a high #eve# of compactness

in I#orin by ;C:>"

/n the other hand #oo'ing at the nature of change under stabi#ity i"e" areas with no

change and instabi#ity@ #oss or gain by each c#ass between :BA; and :BE? particu#ar#y inthe change in hectares as observab#e in tab#e =": stabi#ity seems to be a re#ative term as

ano c#ass is actua##y stab#e during this period e%cept when observed from the percentage

change" Thus between :BA; and :BE? farm #and has a #oss of :AK but gained by AK

between :BE? and ;CC:" $aste #and on the other hand gained by :?K between :BA; and

:BE? but #ost by AK between :BE? and ;CC:" .ui#t@up #and increased i"e" gained by EK

between :BA; and :BE? which is incomparab#e with the reduced increase of :K between

:BE? and ;CC:" 0orest #and gained by :CK between :BA; and :BE? but #ost by :K

between :BE? and ;CC: whi#e water body being arbitrari#y e%aggerated in :BA; cou#d

not be compared with :BE? but there e%ist a re#ative stabi#ity in this c#ass between :BE?

and ;CC: as evident in the CK increase shown in the tab#e"

;A


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OVERLAY OF BUILT UP LAND TO S!OW T

655000 660000 665000 670000 675000

925000

930000

935000

940000

945000

950000

M,4 I8" Derived from the over#ay of :BA; and :BE? 5and use #and cover map

;E


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OVERLAY OF BUILT UP LAND TO S!OW T!

655000 660000 665000 670000 675000

925000

930000

935000

940000

945000

950000

M,4 8" Derived from the over#ay of :BE? and ;CC: 5and use #and cover map

;B


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by > matri% tab#e presented be#ow the rows represent the o#der #and

cover categories and the co#umn represents the newer categories" ,#though this matri%

can be used as a direct input for specification of the prior probabi#ities in ma%imum

#i'e#ihood c#assification of the remote#y sensed imagery it was however used in

predicting #and use #and cover of ;C:>"

Tab#e ="> Transitiona# 4robabi#ity tab#e derived from the #and use #and cover map

of :BE? and ;CC:

*ow categories represent #and use #and cover c#asses in ;CC: whi#st co#umn

categories represent ;C:> c#asses" ,s seen from the tab#e farm #and has a C":=B>

probabi#ity of remaining farm #and and a C">>>< of changing to waste #and in ;C:>" This

therefore shows an undesirab#e change (reduction) with a probabi#ity of change which is

much higher than stabi#ity" $aste #and during this period wi## #i'e#y maintain its position

as the highest c#ass with a C">:".ui#t@up

#and a#so has a probabi#ity as high as C">C;B to remain as bui#t@up #and in ;C:> which

signifies stabi#ity" /n the other hand the C"=C>C probabi#ity of change from forest #and to

waste #and shows that there might #i'e#y be a high #eve# of instabi#ity in forest #and during

this period" $ater body which is the #ast c#ass has a C"C:


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water body and a C"==>E =A=? ;CC :: ;: :

Tab#e ="? 4rojected 5and use #and cover for ;C:>

The tab#e above shows the statistic of #and use #and cover projection for

;C:>" 6omparing the percentage representations of this tab#e and that of tab#e =":

there e%ist simi#arities in the observed distribution particu#ar#y in ;CC:" This may

tend to suggest no change in the c#asses between ;CC: and ;C:> but a carefu# #oo'

at the area in hectares between these two tab#es shows a change though meager"

Thus in tab#e ="? waste #and sti## maintains the highest position in the c#ass whi#st

water body retains its #east position" 0orest #and ta'es up the ne%t position

fo##owed by bui#t@up #and and fina##y farm #and" ,s seen in Map 8I there is #i'e#y

to be compactness in I#orin by ;C:> which signifies crowdedness"


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PRO#ECTED LAND USE LAND C

655000 660000 665000 670000 675000

925000

930000

935000

940000

945000

950000

M,4 8I" Derived from the :BE? and ;CC: #and use #and cover map


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OVERLAY OF BUILT UP LAND TO S!O

655000 660000 665000 670000 675000

925000

930000

935000

940000

945000

950000

M,4 8II" Derived from the over#ay of ;CC: and ;C:> 5and use #and cover map


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CHA+TER 1IVE

0$, 1idi8s) I:licatios ad Reco::edatios

There is #i'e#y going to be crowdedness brought by compactness in

I#orin come ;C:>" This situation wi## have negative imp#ications in the

area because of the associated prob#ems of crowdedness #i'e crime and

easy spread of diseases" It is therefore suggested that encouragement

shou#d be given to peop#e to bui#d towards the outs'irts through the

provision of incentives and forces of attraction that are avai#ab#e at the

city center in these areas"

Indeed between the period of :BE? and ;CC: there has been a reduction

in the spatia# e%pansion of I#orin compared to the period between :BA;

and :BE?" There is a possibi#ity of continua# reduction in this state over

the ne%t :=yrs" This may therefore suggest that the city has reduced in

producing functions that attracted migration into the area" Indeed there

have been many defunct industries within this period" It is therefore

suggested here that +wara State government shou#d encourage investors

both #oca# and foreign and more important#y see how the defunct

industries wi## come up again"

,fter the initia# reduction in farm #and between :BA; and :BE? the city

has witnessed a steady growth in this c#ass and in deed may continue in

this trend in ;CC:F;C:>" 0or this projection to be rea#istic it suggested

here that a de#iberate attempt shou#d be made by the State government

to achieve this since this wi## #ead to food security and more

important#y it wi## be a source of revenue to the State"


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$aste #and seems to be reducing between :BE? and ;CC: and between

;CC: and ;C:> thus signifying a desirab#e change"

0orest #and has been steady in reduction between :BE? and ;CC: and in

deed2 this may #i'e#y be the trend ;CC:F;C:>" It wi## be in the good of

the State and in deed the -ation as a who#e if the moderate reduction in

forest #and observed in@between :BE? and ;CC: which is a#so projected

by ;C:> is uphe#d"

5and consumption rate which is a measure of compactness which

indicates a progressive spatia# e%pansion of a city was high in :BA;FE?

but drop between :BE? and ;CC: and this drop is a#so anticipated before

;C:>"

,#so #and absorption coefficient being a measure of consumption of

new urban #and by each unit increase in urban popu#ation which was

high between :BA; and :BE? reduced between :BE? and ;CC:" This

therefore suggests that the rate at which new #ands are acquired for

deve#opment is #ow" This may a#so be the trend in ;CC:F;C:> as there

seems to be concentration of deve#opment at the city center rather than

e%panding towards the outs'irts" This may be as a resu#t of peop#es

re#uctance to move away from the center of activities to the outs'irts of

the city"

0$/ Su::ary ad Coclusio

This research wor' demonstrates the abi#ity of GIS and *emote Sensing in

capturing spatia#@tempora# data" ,ttempt was made to capture as accurate as

possib#e five #and use #and cover c#asses as they change through time" 3%cept for


47/55

the inabi#ity to accurate#y map out water body in :BA; due to the aforementioned

#imitation the five c#asses were distinct#y produced for each study year but with

more emphasis on bui#t@up #and as it is a combination of anthropogenic activities

that ma'e up this c#ass2 and indeed it is one that affects the other c#asses" Inachieving this 5and 6onsumption *ate and 5and ,bsorption 6oefficient were

introduced into the research wor'" ,n attempt was a#so made at generating a

formu#a for estimating popu#ation growth using the recommended -ationa#

4opu#ation 6ommission ;":K growth rate"

&owever the resu#t of the wor' shows a rapid growth in bui#t@up #and

between :BA; and :BE? whi#e the periods between :BE? and ;CC: witnessed a

reduction in this c#ass" It was a#so observed that change by ;C:> may #i'e#y fo##ow

the trend in :BE?F;CC: a## things being equa#"


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RE1ERENCES

,deniyi 4"/ and /mojo#a ," (:BBB) 5anduse #andcover change eva#uation in

So'oto H *ima .asin of -orth $estern -igeria based on ,rchiva# of the3nvironment (,,*S3) on Geoinformation Techno#ogy ,pp#ications for

*esource and 3nvironmenta# Management in ,frica" 4p :=) B


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3/S,T :BB;" 5andsat TM 6#assification Internationa# Georgia $et#ands in

3/S,T Data !ser -otes 8o#" A -o : 3/S,T 6ompany 5anham MD"

3/S,T :BB=" 3/S,Ts Statewide 4urchase 4#an +eeps South 6aro#ina *esidents

in the 'now in 3/S,T -otes 8o#" B -o : 3/S,T 6ompany 5anham

MD"

3*D,S 0ie#d Guide" :BBB" 3arth *esources Data ,na#ysis System" 3*D,S Inc"

,t#anta Georgia" p" ?;E"

0it7patric@#ins et a# (:BEA)" 4roducing ,#as'a Interim 5and 6over Maps from

5andsat Digita# and ,nci##ary Data in 4roceedings of the ::th

,nnua#$i##iam T" 4ecora Memoria# Symposium Sate##ite 5and *emote Sensing

current programs and a #oo' into the future ,merican Society of

4hotogrammetry and *emote Sensing 4p" " 4ast and 4resent 5and@use and 5and@cover in the !"S","

6onsequences" p";=@


50/55

/#aniran 1"/ (;CC;)" *ainfa## ,noma#ies in -igeria The contemporary

!nderstanding" >>th inaugura# #ecture !niversity press I#orin"

/#orunfemi 1"0 (:BE) The !se and $aste of $ater in a Third $or#d 6ityJ

Geo1orna# *eide# 4ub#ishing 6ompany :C";;C> H ;:C"

*iebsame $"3" Meyer $"." and Turner ."5" II" :BB=" Mode#ing 5and@use and

6over as 4art of G#oba# 3nvironmenta# 6hange" 6#imate 6hange" 8o#" ;E"

p" =>"

Shoshany M et a# (:BB=)" Monitoring Tempora# 8egetation 6over 6hanges in

Mediterranean and ,rid 3cosystems !sing a *emote Sensing Technique

case study of the 1udean Mountain and the 1udean Desert" 1ourna# of ,rid

3nvironments


51/55

!niversity of I#orin Department of Geography" (:BE:) I#orin ,t#as2 I#orin

!niversity press

$i#'ie D"S" and 0inn 1"T" :BB?" *emote Sensing Imagery for -atura# *esources

Monitoring" 6o#umbia !niversity 4ress -ew or'" p" ;B>"

Liaomei and *onqing 5"" (:BBB)" 6hange Detection .ased on *emote

Sensing Information Mode# and its ,pp#ication to 6oasta# 5ine of e##ow

*iver De#ta H 3arth /bservation 6enter -,SD, 6hina"

eates M and Garner ." (:BA?)" The -orth ,merican 6ity &arper and *ow 4ub"

-ew or'"

=C


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0IG!*3 I 5,-D !S3 5,-D 6/83* 6,T3G/*I3S /0 I5/*I- I- :BA;

=:


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0IG!*3 II 5,-D !S3 5,-D 6/83* 6,T3G/*I3S /0 I5/*I- I- :BE?

=;


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0IG!*3 III 5,-D !S3 5,-D 6/83* 6,T3G/*I3S /0 I5/*I- I- ;CC:

=


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0IG!*3 I8 5,-D !S3 5,-D 6/83* 6,T3G/*I3S /0 I5/*I- I- ;C:>

Documents

OpeyemiZubair_ThesisDOC