Operational Analysis Branch HQ ARRC

CAMPAIGN MONITORING IN KOSOVO

I i OA Support to HQ KFOR

Pete Bailey An a I y s t

OA Branch. HQ ARRC

‘HQ ARRC is to be prepared to deploy on SACEUR’S order, to an area of operation designated by SACEUR and to undertake combined, joint military operations across the operational spectrum either as a Corps HQ with up to 4 divisions and corps troops under OPCOM/OPCON. or as a Land Component Command HQ, in order to support SACEUR’s crisis management options.’

End of Cold War I

I997 Headquarters Functional Review

.APR 1999- Operation in FYROM and KOSOVO , OCT 1999

Review of NATO Operational Posture =, Multinational ARRC Working Group

- 0 C T 1992 H Q ARRC Activation

-1994 After Move to Rheindahlen declared as Operationally Ready

.DEC 1995- 1 1 NOV 1996 Operalion FIRM ENDEAVOUR in BOSNIA

DIV LOCATIONS

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“To give independent analytical and scientific advice to COMARRC and COSARRC to aid their decision-making over the spectrum of ARRC activities”

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Head of Branch Personal Assistant to Head Mrs. Hayley Challoner Analyst (Combat Studies) Mr. Peter Bailey Analyst (General OA) Mr. Stuart Smith SO2 Operational Analysis iMajor Hamish Robson SO3 Operational Analysis Captain Conny Lensing Executive Officer Mrs. Karen Williams Military Clerk LCpl Leyland

Mr. Mike Neighbour

OAB CONTRIBUTION TO OPERATION AGRICOLA

Rob Brown Mike Neighbour Major Marcus Hawthorn Adrian Major Hamish Robson Dave Evans Peter Bailey Brian Reason

Stuart Smith' Capt. Bernd Ziminermann Capt. Connie Lensing LCpl Ainslie

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I I CAMPAIGN MONITORING 1 I I I

IN KOSOVO I I I

To provide an understanding of: the reasons for the process and the results

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INTRODUCTION

KFOR Mission (20 Jul 1999): KFOR. in accordance with UNSCR 1244, is to:

a. hlonitor, verify and, when necessary enrorce compliance with the conditions or the hl i l i t r i ry Technical Agreement (AlTA) nnd the UCK Undertaking b. Establish and maintain a secure environment, including public safety and order c. Provide assistance to the United Nations Mission in Rosovo ( W M I K ) , including core civil functions until transferred

1 in order to facilitate peace and stability in Kosovo.

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INTRODUCTION

Cornerstone documents - UN Security Council Resolution 1244 - 10 June 1999 - Military Technical Agreement (VJ/MUP) - 9 June 1999 - Undertaking of Demilitarisation & Transformation

(UCK) - 2 1 June 1999

Compliance Requirements - Quantify Activity - VJlMUP - UCK I /

SCOPING THE TASK

+; SCOPING THE TASK

* Cessation of Hostilities (13)

* Location of forces ( I I ) De-Mil itarisation (8) - Adherence to procedures

* Cooperatibn with KFOR

- Cooperation with civil

(17)

( 2 5 )

presence (9)

* Declarations & Communication of MTAAJnderstanding (9) Minelields, etc (8)

* Response to enforcement

Authority and General Provisions (none) Timelines (29)

(18)

Process - Incidents Databe

- Tlmelv

- Unable output

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OABSOLUTION

OABSOLUTION

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OABSOLUTION

KEY POINTS

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Compliance at K+90

- Political need - Maintain Momentum - Altematives & Consequences

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II I Concerns

- Weapons in circulation - Changing Emphasis - Mines

Concurrent Activity at K+60

- Campaign iMonitoring post K+9O - Progress of the KPC - Desire for further Trend Analysis - Activity of wider population

FOLLOW ON WORK

- ”Code of Conduct”. Aimed to. - Inform COMKFOR of threau to secunty Batability - Provide Bde Comdswilh n consislent and independen1

- Inform the business of the Joint SecunN Commllfees os~essmenl oftheir AOR

- All societal groups monitored against a Code of - Copduct-.keyslraragonists hig -!&= - e- - I __ - -- ._ b ._ - _- .-

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I ATTACKS AGAINST KFOR II" ' '

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GRENADE ATTACKS

REPORT FROM MNB E

AT 262209 TWO SHOTS AND TWO EXPLOSIONS WERE HEARD NORTH OF CERNICA AT EM344958 A CHICKEN AND A DOG WERE FOUND DEAD AT THE SCENE

MORTAR ATTACKS ;. MORTAR ATTACKS

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FOLLOW ON WORK

Trend Analysis

Attacks Against the Person Attacks Against Property Intimidation Possession of Weapons Co-operation with KFOR Co-operation with the Civil Administration

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OVERALLTRENDS L.., ._I I.",

C M L ADMINISTRATION

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p VICTIMISATION I ,111 . I

CONCLUSIONS

Demilitarization of UCK Decisive Point in the Campaign Plan Proactive & Confident Continuity and Consistency Timeliness Reporting format and accuracy Communication and feedback of outputs

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OUESTIONS

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