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©2016STR,Inc.AllRightsReserved.Anyreprint,useorrepublicationofallorapartofthispresentationwithoutthepriorwrittenapprovalofSTR,Inc.orSTRGlobal,Ltd.tradingasSTR(collectively“STR”)isstrictlyprohibited.AnysuchreproductionshallspecificallycreditSTRasthesource.ThispresentationisbasedondatacollectedbySTR.Nostrategicadviceormarketingrecommendationisintendedorimplied.
STRForecastingLuncheonpresentedinpartnership
OklahomaHotelIndustryPerformanceJanD.FreitagSeniorVicePresident
[email protected]@jan_freitag
2©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
• TotalUSReview
• StateofOklahoma
• Tulsa,OK
• OklahomaCity,OK
Agenda
3©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
www.hotelnewsnow.comDataDashboard>ViewAllDataPresentations
4©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
TotalU.S.Review
5©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
July2016YTD:Occ %ChangeTurnedNegative.NowWhat?
%Change
• RoomSupply 1.5%• RoomDemand 1.4%• Occupancy 66.4% -0.1%• A.D.R. $124 3.2%• RevPAR $82 3.0%• RoomRevenue 4.6%
July 2016 YTD, Total US Results
6© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
RevPARGrowth:SlowingDownAfter6Yrs.OfGrowth
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 2000 2010
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/1990 – 07/2016
56 Months 77 Mo.80 Months 31 Mo
7©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
WeAreNotBuildingBallroomsAnymore!
7.8
19.1
59.455.5
6.41.0
22.0
Luxury UpperUpscale
Upscale UpperMidscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
*US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, July 2016
67%
8©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
TotalUnitedStatesKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook(%Changevs.PriorYear)2016- 2017
Outlook
2016Forecast
2017Forecast
Supply 1.6% 2.0%
Demand 1.6% 1.6%
Occupancy 0.0% -0.3%
ADR 3.2% 3.1%
RevPAR 3.2% 2.8%
9©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
Oklahoma
10© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
WeakerOilPrice=RoomDemandGrowthSlows
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
2014 2015 2016
*Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel 1/2014 – 07/2016http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
11©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
Oklahoma:WhereDoWeGoFromHere?
2.9
-3.5
-4
0
4
8
2012 2014 2016
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
State of Oklahoma Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/2012 – 07/2016
12©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
Oklahoma:….AndNowADRIsDecliningAsWell
-7.1
-1.7
-10
-5
0
5
10
2012 2014 2016
Occ % Change
ADR % Change
State of Oklahoma, Monthly Occ & ADR % Change, 1/2012 – 07/2016
13©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
OklahomaYTD:ToughYear
%Change
• RoomSupply 2.5%• RoomDemand -3.7%• Occupancy 55.7% -6.0%• A.D.R. $80 -0.6%• RevPAR $44 -6.6%
Oklahoma, July 2016 YTD
14©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
15©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
OKSubmarketsYTD:ASeaofRed
Submarket Supply%Change RevPAR%Change
OklahomaEastArea 3.7 -8.6
OklahomaWestArea 2.5 -18.3
Norman/Moore 0.9 -5.0
OklahomaCityAirport -1.9 -3.5
OklahomaCityCBD 2.8 2.0
OklahomaCityNorth/West 3.0 -6.7
OklahomaCitySoutheast 0.3 -0.1
TulsaCBD/Airport 4.6 -3.5
TulsaSouth/BrokenArrow 2.7 -2.8
Oklahoma Submarkets, Supply & RevPAR % Change, July 2016 YTD
16©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
Tulsa,OK
17©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
TULSA MARKET
400301 - Tulsa Downtown/ Airport
400302 - Tulsa South/ Broken Arrow
18© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Tulsa:WeakerOilPrice=RoomDemandGrowthSlows
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
2014 2015 2016
CrudeOilFuturesPrice/Barrel(LHS)
Demand%Change(RHS)
*Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel vs. Tulsa, OK Room Demand % Change 1/2014 – 07/2016http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
19©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
TulsaYTD:SharpOcc Drop,ButStillSmall ADRIncreases
%Change
• RoomSupply 3.5%• RoomDemand -1.1%• Occupancy 58.3% -4.5%• A.D.R. $80 1.5%• RevPAR $47 -3.0%
Tulsa, OK; July 2016 YTD
20© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
TulsaWeekday/WeekendOcc:SellingOver6of10RoomsOnWeekends
50.6
54.3 54.2
57.8
53.3
59.2 59.7
53.4
66.3 65.4
72.2
66.468.5
64.1
January February March April May June July
Weekday Weekend
*Tulsa, OK; WD/WE, OCC %, by Month 2016
21© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
TulsaWeekday/WeekendADR:NoDifference?
$80$78
$80$84
$81 $81$78$78 $79
$81
$84
$81 $80
$76
January February March April May June
Weekday Weekend
*Tulsa, OK; WD/WE, ADR $, by Month 2016
22© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
TulsaPipeline:MoreCompetitorsInTheNextTwoYears!
InConstructionFinal
Planning PlanningUpscale 323 320 135UpperMidscale 125 716 356Midscale 160 258 97Independent 670 132 140Total 1,278 1,426 728
Tulsa, OK Pipeline Report, August 2016
23©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
Tulsa,OKKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook(%Changevs.PriorYear)2016- 2017
Outlook
2016Forecast
2017Forecast
Occupancy -4.7% -2.1%
ADR 1.6% 1.1%
RevPAR -3.2% -1.0%
24©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
OklahomaCity,OK
25©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
26© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
OklahomaCity:WeakOilPrice=RoomDemandNowNegative
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
2014 2015 2016
CrudeOilFuturesPrice/Barrel(LHS)
Demand%Change(RHS)
*Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel vs. OKC Room Demand % Change 1/2014 – 07/2016http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
27©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
OklahomaCityYTD:WhatWillHappenToADR?
%Change
• RoomSupply 1.0%• RoomDemand -2.3%• Occupancy 61.7% -3.3%• A.D.R. $84 0.2%• RevPAR $52 -3.1%
Oklahoma City, July 2016 YTD
28© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
OKCWeekday/WeekendOcc:HealthyOccupancyOnTheWeekends
51.0
55.1
62.560.6 59.5
63.761.2
52.2
66.0
72.769.7
73.675.3
69.2
January February March April May June July
Weekday Weekend
*OKC; WD/WE, OCC %, by Month 2016
29© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
OKCWeekday/WeekendADR:AlmostNoDifference?
$81 $82$85 $85 $86 $84 $83
$77$82
$85 $85$88
$86$83
January February March April May June
Weekday Weekend
*OKC; WD/WE, ADR $, by Month 2016
30© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
StrongOKCPipelineWillImpactResultsGoingForward
InConstruction FinalPlanning Planning
UpperUpscale 150 204Upscale 1,064 616 144
UpperMidscale 839 988 443
Midscale 86 385 647
Economy 40Total 2,029 2,139 1,438
Oklahoma City, OK Pipeline Report, August 2016
31©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.
OklahomaCity,OKKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook(%Changevs.PriorYear)2016- 2017
Outlook
2016Forecast
2017Forecast
Occupancy -3.2% -2.1%
ADR 0.1% 1.2%
RevPAR -3.1% -0.9%
32
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©2016STR,Inc.AllRightsReserved.Anyreprint,useorrepublicationofallorapartofthispresentationwithoutthepriorwrittenapprovalofSTR,Inc.orSTRGlobal,Ltd.tradingasSTR(collectively“STR”)isstrictlyprohibited.AnysuchreproductionshallspecificallycreditSTRasthesource.ThispresentationisbasedondatacollectedbySTR.Nostrategicadviceormarketingrecommendationisintendedorimplied.