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1 Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied. STR Forecasting Luncheon presented in partnership Oklahoma Hotel Industry Performance Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President [email protected] @jan_freitag

Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

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Page 1: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

1

©2016STR,Inc.AllRightsReserved.Anyreprint,useorrepublicationofallorapartofthispresentationwithoutthepriorwrittenapprovalofSTR,Inc.orSTRGlobal,Ltd.tradingasSTR(collectively“STR”)isstrictlyprohibited.AnysuchreproductionshallspecificallycreditSTRasthesource.ThispresentationisbasedondatacollectedbySTR.Nostrategicadviceormarketingrecommendationisintendedorimplied.

STRForecastingLuncheonpresentedinpartnership

OklahomaHotelIndustryPerformanceJanD.FreitagSeniorVicePresident

[email protected]@jan_freitag

Page 2: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

2©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

• TotalUSReview

• StateofOklahoma

• Tulsa,OK

• OklahomaCity,OK

Agenda

Page 3: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

3©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

www.hotelnewsnow.comDataDashboard>ViewAllDataPresentations

Page 4: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

4©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

TotalU.S.Review

Page 5: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

5©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

July2016YTD:Occ %ChangeTurnedNegative.NowWhat?

%Change

• RoomSupply 1.5%• RoomDemand 1.4%• Occupancy 66.4% -0.1%• A.D.R. $124 3.2%• RevPAR $82 3.0%• RoomRevenue 4.6%

July 2016 YTD, Total US Results

Page 6: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

6© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

RevPARGrowth:SlowingDownAfter6Yrs.OfGrowth

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1990 2000 2010

Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/1990 – 07/2016

56 Months 77 Mo.80 Months 31 Mo

Page 7: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

7©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

WeAreNotBuildingBallroomsAnymore!

7.8

19.1

59.455.5

6.41.0

22.0

Luxury UpperUpscale

Upscale UpperMidscale

Midscale Economy Unaffiliated

*US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, July 2016

67%

Page 8: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

8©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

TotalUnitedStatesKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook(%Changevs.PriorYear)2016- 2017

Outlook

2016Forecast

2017Forecast

Supply 1.6% 2.0%

Demand 1.6% 1.6%

Occupancy 0.0% -0.3%

ADR 3.2% 3.1%

RevPAR 3.2% 2.8%

Page 9: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

9©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

Oklahoma

Page 10: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

10© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

WeakerOilPrice=RoomDemandGrowthSlows

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2014 2015 2016

*Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel 1/2014 – 07/2016http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

Page 11: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

11©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

Oklahoma:WhereDoWeGoFromHere?

2.9

-3.5

-4

0

4

8

2012 2014 2016

Supply % Change

Demand % Change

State of Oklahoma Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/2012 – 07/2016

Page 12: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

12©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

Oklahoma:….AndNowADRIsDecliningAsWell

-7.1

-1.7

-10

-5

0

5

10

2012 2014 2016

Occ % Change

ADR % Change

State of Oklahoma, Monthly Occ & ADR % Change, 1/2012 – 07/2016

Page 13: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

13©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

OklahomaYTD:ToughYear

%Change

• RoomSupply 2.5%• RoomDemand -3.7%• Occupancy 55.7% -6.0%• A.D.R. $80 -0.6%• RevPAR $44 -6.6%

Oklahoma, July 2016 YTD

Page 14: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

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Page 15: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

15©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

OKSubmarketsYTD:ASeaofRed

Submarket Supply%Change RevPAR%Change

OklahomaEastArea 3.7 -8.6

OklahomaWestArea 2.5 -18.3

Norman/Moore 0.9 -5.0

OklahomaCityAirport -1.9 -3.5

OklahomaCityCBD 2.8 2.0

OklahomaCityNorth/West 3.0 -6.7

OklahomaCitySoutheast 0.3 -0.1

TulsaCBD/Airport 4.6 -3.5

TulsaSouth/BrokenArrow 2.7 -2.8

Oklahoma Submarkets, Supply & RevPAR % Change, July 2016 YTD

Page 16: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

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Tulsa,OK

Page 17: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

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TULSA MARKET

400301 - Tulsa Downtown/ Airport

400302 - Tulsa South/ Broken Arrow

Page 18: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

18© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Tulsa:WeakerOilPrice=RoomDemandGrowthSlows

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2014 2015 2016

CrudeOilFuturesPrice/Barrel(LHS)

Demand%Change(RHS)

*Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel vs. Tulsa, OK Room Demand % Change 1/2014 – 07/2016http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

Page 19: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

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TulsaYTD:SharpOcc Drop,ButStillSmall ADRIncreases

%Change

• RoomSupply 3.5%• RoomDemand -1.1%• Occupancy 58.3% -4.5%• A.D.R. $80 1.5%• RevPAR $47 -3.0%

Tulsa, OK; July 2016 YTD

Page 20: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

20© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

TulsaWeekday/WeekendOcc:SellingOver6of10RoomsOnWeekends

50.6

54.3 54.2

57.8

53.3

59.2 59.7

53.4

66.3 65.4

72.2

66.468.5

64.1

January February March April May June July

Weekday Weekend

*Tulsa, OK; WD/WE, OCC %, by Month 2016

Page 21: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

21© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

TulsaWeekday/WeekendADR:NoDifference?

$80$78

$80$84

$81 $81$78$78 $79

$81

$84

$81 $80

$76

January February March April May June

Weekday Weekend

*Tulsa, OK; WD/WE, ADR $, by Month 2016

Page 22: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

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TulsaPipeline:MoreCompetitorsInTheNextTwoYears!

InConstructionFinal

Planning PlanningUpscale 323 320 135UpperMidscale 125 716 356Midscale 160 258 97Independent 670 132 140Total 1,278 1,426 728

Tulsa, OK Pipeline Report, August 2016

Page 23: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

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Tulsa,OKKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook(%Changevs.PriorYear)2016- 2017

Outlook

2016Forecast

2017Forecast

Occupancy -4.7% -2.1%

ADR 1.6% 1.1%

RevPAR -3.2% -1.0%

Page 24: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

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OklahomaCity,OK

Page 25: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

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Page 26: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

26© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

OklahomaCity:WeakOilPrice=RoomDemandNowNegative

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2014 2015 2016

CrudeOilFuturesPrice/Barrel(LHS)

Demand%Change(RHS)

*Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel vs. OKC Room Demand % Change 1/2014 – 07/2016http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

Page 27: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

27©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

OklahomaCityYTD:WhatWillHappenToADR?

%Change

• RoomSupply 1.0%• RoomDemand -2.3%• Occupancy 61.7% -3.3%• A.D.R. $84 0.2%• RevPAR $52 -3.1%

Oklahoma City, July 2016 YTD

Page 28: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

28© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

OKCWeekday/WeekendOcc:HealthyOccupancyOnTheWeekends

51.0

55.1

62.560.6 59.5

63.761.2

52.2

66.0

72.769.7

73.675.3

69.2

January February March April May June July

Weekday Weekend

*OKC; WD/WE, OCC %, by Month 2016

Page 29: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

29© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

OKCWeekday/WeekendADR:AlmostNoDifference?

$81 $82$85 $85 $86 $84 $83

$77$82

$85 $85$88

$86$83

January February March April May June

Weekday Weekend

*OKC; WD/WE, ADR $, by Month 2016

Page 30: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

30© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

StrongOKCPipelineWillImpactResultsGoingForward

InConstruction FinalPlanning Planning

UpperUpscale 150 204Upscale 1,064 616 144

UpperMidscale 839 988 443

Midscale 86 385 647

Economy 40Total 2,029 2,139 1,438

Oklahoma City, OK Pipeline Report, August 2016

Page 31: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

31©2016STR.AllRightsReserved.

OklahomaCity,OKKeyPerformanceIndicatorOutlook(%Changevs.PriorYear)2016- 2017

Outlook

2016Forecast

2017Forecast

Occupancy -3.2% -2.1%

ADR 0.1% 1.2%

RevPAR -3.1% -0.9%

Page 32: Oklahoma Hotel Industry PerformanceAny reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading

32

Questions? Presentationisavailablefordownload.

Toviewthispresentation,click“STRDataPresentations”fromthedrop-downmenuonwww.HotelNewsNow.com.

©2016STR,Inc.AllRightsReserved.Anyreprint,useorrepublicationofallorapartofthispresentationwithoutthepriorwrittenapprovalofSTR,Inc.orSTRGlobal,Ltd.tradingasSTR(collectively“STR”)isstrictlyprohibited.AnysuchreproductionshallspecificallycreditSTRasthesource.ThispresentationisbasedondatacollectedbySTR.Nostrategicadviceormarketingrecommendationisintendedorimplied.