Pres

enta

tion

of D

r. Jo

ram

Hop

enfe

ld

to th

e AS

LB in

Res

pons

e to

Dr.

Ho

row

itz R

egar

ding

CHE

CWO

RKS

In

dian

Poi

nt L

icen

se R

enew

al P

roce

edin

g

Adju

dica

tory

Hea

ring

Oct

ober

15,

201

2

Uni

ted

Stat

es N

ucle

ar R

egul

ator

y C

omm

issi

on O

ffici

al H

earin

g Ex

hibi

t

In th

e M

atte

r of:

Ent

ergy

Nuc

lear

Ope

ratio

ns, I

nc.

(Indi

an P

oint

Nuc

lear

Gen

erat

ing

Uni

ts 2

and

3)

ASL

BP

#:07

-858

-03-

LR-B

D01

D

ocke

t #:0

5000

247

| 050

0028

6 Ex

hibi

t #:

Iden

tifie

d:

Adm

itted

: W

ithdr

awn:

R

ejec

ted:

St

ricke

n:

Oth

er: B

RD

0000

02-0

0-B

D01

10/1

5/20

12

I FU

NDU

MEN

TALL

Y DI

SAGR

EE W

ITH

DR. H

ORO

WIT

Z RE

GARD

ING

HOW

THE

CH

ECW

ORK

S PR

OGR

AM W

AS D

ESIG

NED

AN

D HO

W IT

WO

RKS

MAI

N P

OIN

TS O

F DI

SAG

REEM

ENT

Subj

ect

CLA

IMED

BY

ENTE

RGY

Disa

gree

/Agr

ee

NO

TES

Back

grou

nd

Nee

d fo

r sin

gle

phas

e in

spec

tion

Disa

gree

N

ot th

e m

ain

need

Mod

el’s

tech

nica

l ba

sis

All k

now

n da

ta

Di

sagr

ee

Sele

ctiv

e da

ta w

as u

sed

Mat

hem

atic

al

Anal

ogue

In

puts

repr

esen

t kn

own

quan

titie

s,

(mas

s tra

nsfe

r rat

es

Cr, g

eom

etry

)

Disa

gree

Co

mpo

nent

Cr.

Cont

ent

is un

know

n. I

ncor

rect

re

latio

n be

twee

n m

etal

lo

ss a

nd m

ass t

rans

fer

coef

ficie

nt

Desig

ned

to

hand

le c

hang

es in

Pl

ant C

ondi

tions

Can

hand

le c

hang

es

in fl

ow

Disa

gree

N

o co

rrel

atio

n be

fore

an

d af

ter f

low

cha

nges

Mod

el p

redi

ctio

ns

Valid

ated

and

Ref

ined

Di

sagr

ee

40-6

0% o

f the

tim

e

pred

ictio

ns a

re n

ot

cons

erva

tive

BACK

GRO

UN

D •

CHEC

WO

RKS

was

intr

oduc

ed b

y EP

RI 7

mon

ths a

fter

the

Surr

y ac

cide

nt.

To m

eet s

ched

ule,

EPR

I dev

elop

ed it

s ow

n de

finiti

on o

f FAC

: i.

EPRI

’s De

finiti

on:

FAC

= co

rros

ion

(con

trol

led

by d

iffus

ion

mas

s tr

ansf

er)

ii.Co

mm

on d

efin

ition

: Ero

sion/

Cor

rosio

n =

Corr

osio

n +

Eros

ion

+ Sy

nerg

y

Not

e: C

orro

sion

is re

lativ

ely

easy

to p

redi

ct; c

orro

sion

+ sy

nerg

y is

ve

ry d

iffic

ult t

o pr

edic

t

•To

supp

ort i

ts FA

C de

finiti

on, E

PRI d

id th

e fo

llow

ing:

i.

Igno

red

scho

larly

pap

ers o

fferin

g di

ffere

nt th

eorie

s ii.

Did

not p

rovi

de a

ny te

chni

cal b

asis

iii

.U

sed

dat

a se

lect

ivel

y, re

gard

less

its a

pplic

abili

ty

iv.

Misr

epre

sent

ed th

e va

lidity

of m

odel

pre

dict

ions

CHEC

WO

RKS

unde

rlyin

g as

sum

ptio

ns a

re w

rong

•

CHEC

WO

RKS

Assu

mpt

ion

#1: N

on-c

onse

rvat

ive

pred

ictio

ns, 5

0% o

f the

tim

e, a

re a

ccep

tabl

e –

Not

acc

epta

ble:

“m

odel

mus

t be

reca

libra

ted”

whe

n no

n co

nser

vativ

e (N

URE

G-1

801,

Rev

. 2)

•

CHEC

WO

RKS

Assu

mpt

ion

#2: C

ompo

nent

Chr

omiu

m c

onte

nt is

kno

wn

–

a fa

ctor

of s

ix in

Chr

omiu

m u

ncer

tain

ty le

ads t

o a

fact

or o

f 10

in FA

C un

cert

aint

y

•CH

ECW

ORK

S As

sum

ptio

n #3

: Wal

l thi

nnin

g by

FAC

is c

ontr

olle

d so

lely

by

chem

ical

dis

solu

tion

–

Exist

ing

theo

retic

al a

nd e

xper

imen

tal d

ata

indi

cate

that

FAC

is co

ntro

lled

by b

oth

diss

olut

ion

and

eros

ion

(for e

xam

ple,

see

refe

renc

e: D

igby

D. M

acdo

nald

, The

Poi

nt D

efec

t Mod

el fo

r the

Pas

sive

Stat

e,

J. O

F THE

ELE

CTRO

CHEM

ICAL

SO

CIET

Y, Vo

l. 13

9, Is

sue

No.

12

(Dec

. 199

2));

NRC

find

ings

in L

R-IS

G-2

012-

01

(Dra

ft L

icen

se R

enew

al In

terim

Sta

ff G

uida

nce,

Wal

l Thi

nnin

g Du

e to

Ero

sion

Mec

hani

sms,

Exh

ibit

ENT0

0057

3) a

nd it

s ow

n da

ta a

t IPE

C.

•CH

ECW

ORK

S As

sum

ptio

n #4

: Ave

rage

mas

s tra

nsfe

r coe

ffic

ient

s are

app

licab

le

–AS

ME

code

requ

irem

ents

are

bas

ed o

n m

axim

um lo

cal r

ates

(Tc

rit –

is th

e m

inim

um lo

cal t

hick

ness

)

•CH

ECW

ORK

S As

sum

ptio

n #5

: Cor

rosi

on ra

te e

quat

ions

der

ived

from

test

s of e

lect

roch

emic

ally

driv

en

copp

er d

isso

lutio

n in

hyd

roflu

oric

aci

d ar

e ap

plic

able

(ref

eren

ce: B

ryan

Pou

lson

and

Russ

el R

obin

son,

The

U

se o

f A C

orro

sion

Proc

ess t

o O

btai

n M

ass T

rans

fer D

ata,

SCI

ENCE

, Vol

. 26,

No.

4, p

p. 2

65-2

80 (1

986)

) –

Suc

h te

sts a

re n

ot a

pplic

able

to c

arbo

n st

eel i

n th

e re

acto

r env

ironm

ent (

refe

renc

e: G

.J. B

igno

ld, K

. G

arbe

tt, R

. Gar

nsey

, & I.

S. W

oolse

y, E

rosio

n/Co

rros

ion

in N

ucle

ar S

team

Gen

erat

ors,

in W

ATER

CH

EMIS

TRY O

F NU

CLEA

R RE

ACTO

R SY

STEM

S 5, P

aper

1 (B

ritish

Nuc

lear

Eng

inee

ring

Soci

ety,

198

0)).

CHEC

WO

RKS

Pred

ictio

ns:

N

on-c

onse

rvat

ive

by a

s muc

h as

a fa

ctor

of 1

0 CH

ECW

ORK

S p

redi

ctio

ns a

re p

rese

nted

in a

man

ner t

hat h

ides

the

degr

ee o

f no

n-co

nser

vatis

m, r

esul

ting

in m

islea

ding

plo

ts.

•

As sh

own

in F

igur

es 1

A an

d 1B

, int

erch

angi

ng t

he y

and

the

x ax

es ,

incr

ease

s the

nu

mbe

r of

non-

cons

erva

tive

poin

ts, e

xcee

ding

the

50%

line

, by

a fa

ctor

of 6

.

•

The

uppe

r lin

e is

labe

led

+50

% i

nste

ad a

+10

0%, m

isrep

rese

ntin

g CH

ECW

ORK

S’

accu

racy

Figu

re 1

A -S

how

s how

alm

ost a

ll th

e no

n-co

nser

vativ

e da

ta

poin

ts a

ppea

r to

be b

ound

by

the

-50%

line

Mea

sure

d W

ear (

mils

)

150

300

0

(Ref

eren

ce: R

IV00

0111

- Ho

penf

eld

Re-p

lott

ed C

HECW

ORK

S da

ta)

Figu

re 1

B –

By in

terc

hang

ing

the

x an

d th

e y

axes

, th

e nu

mbe

r of

non

–con

serv

ativ

e po

ints

in F

igur

e 1A

, exc

eedi

ng th

e 50

%

line,

was

incr

ease

d fr

om 2

to 1

2 i.e

., by

a fa

ctor

of 6

Pred

icte

d W

ear

(Mils

)

(Ref

eren

ce: R

IV00

0111

- Ho

penf

eld

Re-p

lott

ed C

HECW

ORK

S da

ta)

Loca

l var

iatio

n w

all t

hinn

ing

show

s tha

t FAC

is c

ontr

olle

d

by b

oth

corr

osio

n an

d er

osio

n: w

rong

Inpu

t to

mod

el

Def

initi

ons:

MTC

RE: M

axim

um e

lbow

to p

ipe

mas

s tra

nsfe

r co

effic

ient

ratio

= M

axim

um e

lbow

to

pipe

met

al lo

ss

MTC

RE c

riter

ia c

an d

eter

min

e w

heth

er F

AC is

cont

rolle

d by

ch

emic

al d

issol

utio

n or

ero

sion

•

Chem

ical

diss

olut

ion

cont

rolle

d: M

TCRE

< 1

.6

•Er

osio

n co

ntro

lled:

MTC

RE >

1.6

Ca

lcul

atio

ns:

Elbo

w. M

ax. m

etal

loss

: (pt

1) 1

.446

-1.3

25=0

.121

” (P

t2)

1.54

7-0.

513=

1.03

4”

Stra

ight

pip

e, M

ax. m

etal

loss

: 1.

399-

1.37

9=0.

020”

M

etal

loss

Rat

io, (

Elbo

w /s

trai

ght p

ipe)

:(0.1

21/.

02) &

(1

.034

/.02

) i.e

. 6 to

52

Refe

renc

e: E

nter

gy U

ltras

onic

Exa

min

atio

n Re

port

, IP

EC00

0208

53, a

t bat

esta

mp

IPEC

0002

0856

Conc

lusi

on: I

f met

al lo

ss w

ere

cont

rolle

d by

diss

olut

ion

alon

e it

wou

ld h

ave

not e

xcee

ded

1.6X

; in

fact

it e

xcee

ded

it by

6X

to 5

2X, m

eani

ng th

at FA

C is

con

trol

led

by b

oth

chem

ical

diss

olut

ion

and

eros

ion.

Re

fere

nce:

Jian

rong

Wan

g, S

iam

ack

A. S

hira

zi, A

CFD

bas

ed c

orre

latio

n fo

r mas

s tra

nsfe

r co

effic

ient

in e

lbow

s, IN

T’L J

. OF H

EAT A

ND

MAS

S TRA

NSF

ER, 4

4 (2

001)

181

7-18

22.

Abru

pt lo

cal t

hick

ness

des

pite

Ent

ergy

cla

im th

at FA

C is

unifo

rm:

Refe

renc

e: E

nter

gy U

ltras

onic

Exa

min

atio

n Re

port

, IPE

C000

2085

3, a

t bat

esta

mp

IPEC

0002

0858

CHEC

WO

RKS

Met

hodo

logy

Res

ults

in O

verly

Lar

ge G

rid S

ize

CHEC

WO

RKS

was

des

igne

d to

pre

dict

ave

rage

thin

ning

rate

s by

cor

rosi

on, n

ot lo

cal r

ates

by

eith

er c

orro

sion

or e

rosi

on

•El

bow

’s th

ickn

ess v

arie

d fr

om 0

.257

” to

0.0

59”,

(77%

), m

ore

than

30

com

pone

nt g

rids

exhi

bit l

arge

loca

l var

iatio

ns, y

et E

nter

gy d

oes n

ot c

onsid

er FA

C as

a lo

cal p

heno

men

on

(ref

eren

ce: T

estim

ony

of E

nter

gy W

itnes

ses R

egar

ding

Con

tent

ion

RK-T

C-2,

EN

T000

029,

at

p.5

4)

•

Unp

redi

ctab

le co

mpo

nent

to c

ompo

nent

loca

l thi

nnin

g va

riatio

n (g

eom

etry

cha

nges

w

ith ti

me)

•

CHEC

WO

RKS

com

paris

on o

f loc

al th

inni

ng p

redi

ctio

ns w

ith m

easu

rem

ents

was

nev

er

prov

ided

(Ref

eren

ce: R

IV00

0049

- En

terg

y In

dian

Poi

nt U

3, F

AC, 3

RF13

Out

age,

200

5)

CHEC

WO

RKS

non-

cons

erva

tive

pred

ictio

ns

and

the

defin

ition

of F

AC c

ause

d co

nfus

ion;

N

RC is

sued

new

gui

danc

e

•N

URE

G-18

01, R

ev. 2

, at X

I M17

-2, n

ow re

quire

s tha

t,

“w

hen

mea

sure

men

ts sh

ow th

e pr

edic

tions

to b

e no

n-co

nser

vativ

e, th

e m

odel

mus

t be

re-c

alib

rate

d us

ing

the

late

st fi

eld

data

.”

•Dr

aft L

icen

se R

enew

al In

terim

Sta

ff Gu

idan

ce, L

R-IS

G-20

12-0

1,

Wal

l Thi

nnin

g Du

e to

Ero

sion

Mec

hani

sms (

Exhi

bit E

NT0

0057

3),

revi

sed

the

defin

ition

of w

all t

hinn

ing

to in

clud

e e

rosio

n m

echa

nism

s suc

h as

cav

itatio

n, fl

ashi

ng, d

ropl

et im

ping

emen

t, an

d so

lid p

artic

le im

ping

emen

t.

CHEC

WO

RKS

is N

ot U

sed

for S

team

Gen

erat

or C

ompo

nent

s

•10

CFR

§ 5

0.49

(b)(1

) Req

uire

s AM

P fo

r ste

am g

ener

ator

s •

Stea

m g

ener

ator

s com

pone

nts s

uch

as in

let p

ipin

g, n

ozzle

s, b

low

do

wn

pipi

ng, a

nd d

istrib

utio

n rin

g, a

re h

ighl

y su

scep

tible

to FA

C •

Ente

rgy

appr

oach

to S

team

Gen

erat

or A

MP,

“W

hen

FAC

Prog

ram

in

spec

tions

reve

al w

all t

hinn

ing,

that

dat

a is

eval

uate

d ag

ains

t th

e ap

prop

riate

des

ign

load

ing

cond

ition

s, in

clud

ing

seism

ic

load

s” is

in d

irect

vio

latio

n of

Par

t 50

Sum

mar

y

Is

sue

CLA

IMED

BY

ENTE

RGY

FACT

UAL

NO

TES

ACCU

RACY

+

/- 5

0%

with

resp

ect t

o LC

F +

/- a

fact

or o

f 2

(obs

erve

d /p

redi

cted

) As

muc

h as

a fa

ctor

of

10

FAC

Mec

hani

sm

Diss

olut

ion

only

Co

nseq

uenc

es:

wro

ng i

nput

pa

ram

eter

s

Mor

e Pr

obab

le:

Com

bine

d Ch

emic

al

and

Mec

hani

cal

Cons

erva

tism

Co

nser

vativ

e re

sults

40-6

0% re

sults

are

no

t con

serv

ativ

e

Code

was

not

des

igne

d to

be

cons

erva

tive

Mee

t NU

REG-

1801

, Rev

. 2

YES

N

O

Cann

ot b

e re

calib

rate

d

10 C

FR §

50.

49

Com

plia

nce

by

eval

uatin

g co

nseq

. on

di

scov

erin

g Tw

<Tde

s

N

O

CON

CLU

SIO

N:

CHEC

WO

RKS

does

not

mee

t Pa

rt 5

4 an

d N

URE

G-1

801

requ

irem

ents

•CH

ECW

ORK

S ca

n ne

ither

pre

dict

wal

l thi

nnin

g fo

r est

ablis

hing

insp

ectio

n fr

eque

ncie

s nor

can

it be

use

d to

id

entif

y ne

w c

ompo

nent

s for

insp

ectio

ns.

•Be

caus

e of

its i

nher

ent d

esig

n CH

ECW

ORK

S ca

n no

t be

reca

libra

ted:

–

CHEC

WO

RKS

pred

ictio

ns fo

r the

yea

rs 2

000-

2011

sho

w th

at 4

0-60

% o

f the

tim

e th

e co

de p

rodu

ced

non-

cons

erva

tive

resu

lts b

y as

muc

h as

a fa

ctor

of 1

0.

–CH

ECW

ORK

S w

as d

esig

ned

to o

ver-

pred

ict a

nd u

nder

-pre

dict

dat

a by

50%

. –

Unc

erta

intie

s in

Chro

miu

m c

onte

nt in

put,

wou

ld p

reve

nt a

ny m

eani

ngfu

l rec

alib

ratio

n of

the

code

. –

Afte

r 20

year

s of o

pera

tions

CHE

CWO

RKS

rem

ains

unc

alib

rate

d.

–Th

e in

puts

on

the

effe

cts o

f geo

met

ry a

nd v

eloc

ity o

n FA

C ra

tes a

re in

corr

ect b

ecau

se th

ey w

ere

base

d on

te

sts o

f cop

per i

n an

aci

d. In

agg

ress

ive

acid

s, th

e do

min

ant d

amag

e is

by c

hem

ical

diss

olut

ion;

thes

e te

sts

are

not a

pplic

able

to st

eel i

n w

ater

. •

Ente

rgy

cann

ot m

eet P

art 5

0, P

art 5

4 an

d N

URE

G-18

01 re

quire

men

ts b

ecau

se it

doe

s not

hav

e a

pred

ictiv

e m

etho

dolo

gy a

s req

uire

d by

NU

REG

-180

1, R

ev. 2

: –

Mon

itorin

g an

d Tr

endi

ng: C

HECW

ORK

S or

a si

mila

r pre

dict

ive

code

is u

sed

to p

redi

ct c

ompo

nent

de

grad

atio

n in

the

syst

ems c

ondu

cive

to FA

C;

–Ac

cept

ance

Crit

eria

: Ins

pect

ion

resu

lts a

re in

put f

or a

pre

dict

ive

com

pute

r cod

e, su

ch a

s CHE

CWO

RKS,

to

calc

ulat

e th

e nu

mbe

r of r

efue

ling

or o

pera

ting

cycl

es re

mai

ning

bef

ore

the

com

pone

nt re

ache

s th

e m

inim

um a

llow

able

wal

l thi

ckne

ss;

–N

SAC

202L

-R3

“Th

e pu

rpos

e of

qua

ntita

tive

anal

ysis

of u

sing

pred

ictiv

e m

etho

dolo

gy su

ch a

s CHE

CWO

RKS

is to

pre

dict

the

FAC

wea

r rat

e an

d to

det

erm

ine

the

rem

aini

ng se

rvic

e lif

e fo

r eac

h pi

ping

com

pone

nt,

incl

udin

g un

insp

ecte

d co

mpo

nent

s.”