Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Space Weather Effects on Products and Services Supporting Surface Transportation Mark Gunzelman

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM

Space Weather Effects on Products and Services Supporting

Surface TransportationMark Gunzelman

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research

25 July 2007

Credit to Dr. Ernie Hildner, Richard Barker, and the NOAA NWS


Solar Flare (Electromagnetic Radiation)

ARRIVAL: 8 minDURATION: 1-2 HOURS

• HF RADIO BLACKOUT• SATCOM INTERFERENCE• RADAR INTERFERENCE• GPS LOSS OF LOCK

EFFECTS

Geomagnetic Storm(Coronal Mass Ejection)

ARRIVAL: 1-4 DAYSDURATION: DAYS

EFFECTS• HF RADIO BLACKOUT• POWER GRID PROBLEMS• SATELLITE ANOMALIES• RADAR INTERFERENCE• GPS ERRORS

Radiation Storm(High Energy Charged Particles)ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: DAYS

EFFECTS HIGH-LATITUDE HF RADIO BLACKOUT• SATELLITE ANOMALIES• RADIATION EXPOSURE• AVIONICS GLITCHES


Friendly Fire from Space Weather We are the mercy of the sun.

Society is increasingly dependent on space-based technologies:

• Commercial, government, and national security infrastructure

• Television broadcast and pagers to GPS satellite navigation

• Such equipment and services are vulnerable to space weather effects.

National Space Weather Program – Federal Government interagency initiative1. Overall Objective

a. Speed improvement of Space Weather (SWx) services in the U.S.b. Prepare nation to deal with technological vulnerabilities from SWx

i. Centralize program management – Create a Center for SWx R2O- Reinforce the science-to-user chain (targeted & strategic research)

ii. Ensure continuity of critical data sources (L1) iii. Investigate the use of new, lower cost micro-satellite technologies


There is an absence of suitable connection for “academia-to-operations” knowledge transfer and for the transition of research to operations in general.

Critical Finding in the recent assessment of the NSWP

Space Weather Enterprise Forum, Wash. DC


GPS and the Solar CycleNumber of GPS Satellites

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Year

Block IIR- M

Block IIR

Block IIA

Block II

Block I

S/A On

S/A Off Cycle 23 Peak

SUNSPOT NUMBER SOLAR FLARES (Not to Scale)

175/30

150/25

125/20

100/15

75/10

50/5

25/0

200/35

Cycle 23 Peak

Cycle 21 Peak WAAS

Cycle 22 Peak

GPS Operational

24 hr GPS

1st GPS Rcvr


• Almost all Aspects of Commence in our Daily Routine Activities• Deep-sea drilling operations • Farming - Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed control are necessary• FAA navigation systems• Various DoD operations

- Aircraft operations, weapon systems• Power Grids • Mining operation• Highway construction• Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, and property

boundary analysis

GPS CustomersGPS Customers


Critical To The Economy

PumpGas

WatchTV

Shop

Eat Out

Buy & ServiceAutomobile

TransactFinancially

Stay at Hotels




boundary analysis



Example of Concern

GPS Global Production Value—expected growth:

2003 - $13 billion

2008 - $21.5 billion

2017 - $757 billionIndustrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) – Mar 2005)

Global Positioning System• Airborne Survey Data Collection:

$50,000 per day• Marine Seismic Data Collection:

$80,000-$200,000 per day• Offshore Oil Rig Operation:

$300,000-$1,000,000 per day (Courtesy R. Barker)





EFFECTS





DURATION: DAYS



Geomagnetic warnings and alerts uses:

• Critical when DGPS high accuracy solutions are required by surveyors

• Dynamic Positioning (DP) operators will cease operations or resort to back-up options

• GPS anomaly assessments

• International oilfield services companies issue "technical alerts" to their surveying and drilling staff for solar storms

Drilling and Survey Operations


Precise Positioning Services for Various Types of Vessels, Marine Operations and Construction Support




boundary analysis



Irrigation and Fertilizer Strip InstallationFor Water Conservation and Ground Moisture Control












• Almost all Aspects of Commence in our Daily Routine Activities• Deep-sea drilling operations • Farming - Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed control are necessary• FAA navigation systems• Power Grids• Various DoD operations

- Aircraft operations, weapon systems• Mining operation• Highway construction• Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, and property

boundary analysis



Growing Space Weather Needs

Integration of Space Weather Into NGATS

• More Efficiency• More Capacity• More Profitable


Example of Concern

The advent of new long range aircraft such as theA340-500/600, B777-300ER and B777-200LR

Next 6 Years:

Airlines operating China-US routes go from 4 to 9Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249

Next 12 Years:

1.8 million polar route passengers by 2018

Airlines and Space Weather





EFFECTS





DURATION: DAYS



Communications

• SatCom and VHF communications are unavailable over the Pole

• Polar flights rely on HF (3 – 30 MHz) as the primary means of communication inside the 82 degree circle

• Solar radiation storms can result in a prolonged (days) periods of HF blackout

HF Communication only

Space Weather Impacts on Polar Routes

Radiation Exposure

• Exposure levels are very small. Two sources:

o Galactic Cosmic Rays (always present and inescapable)

o Solar Radiation Storms occur sporadically (significant exposure increases are rare, but do occur).

• Airlines have introduced restrictions on polar route due to this increased radiation


GPS Ionospheric Ranging Errors and ScintillationsTracking The GPS Signal Is Like Trying To See A 25 Watt Light Bulb

12,000 Miles Up

Graphic from Cornell University

Scintillations result from severe ionospheric signal scattering.

Ionospheric Range Delay result from normal signal propagation through the ionosphere.

Amplitude Fading or signal to noise degradation are caused by solar radio bursts.




boundary analysis



•Pacific Northwest Reliability Coordinator•California Mexico Reliability Coordinator•Entergy•ERCOT ISO•Florida Power & Light•Hydro Quebec, TransEnergie•Ontario - Independent Electricity System •SO New England Inc.•Midwest ISO•New Brunswick System Operator•Rocky Desert Reliability Coordinator•New York Independent System Operator • PJM Interconnection•Southern Company Services, Inc•Southwest Power Pool•Tennessee Valley Authority•VACAR-South

NERC reliability coordinators distribute geomagnetic storm messages to all power systems entities throughout the USA and

Canada

North American Electric Reliability Corporation


Allegheny Power EnvaPower NYS Professional EngineerAmeren Corporation FirstEnergy Ohio Valley Electric CorporationBechtel Nevada Fugro Chance Inc. PJM Interconnections LLCBonneville Power Administration ISO New England Inc. PSEG Nuclear LLCCannon Technologies, Inc. LADWP Puget Sound EnergyCentral Maine Power Co. Maine Public Service Company Soreq NRCCinergy Maine Public Utilities Cmsn. SUNBURST GroupCleco Power LLC Manitoba Hydro Swedish Geological SurveyDayton Power & Light Co. Metatech Corporation Texas-New Mexico PowerDOE Western Area Power Admin. N E Arizona Energy Servs Co Transmission Engr.Dominion Nuclear CT Nathaniel Energy Corporation TranspowerDominion Virginia Power NB Power Transpower NZ LtdDTE Energy New Brunswick Power US NRCElectric REsearch, Inc. New York Independent System OperatorWe EnergiesElk Valley Coal New York Power Authority Western Area Power Admin.Entergy Corp. New York State Power Authority Northeast Utilities

SEC Customers – Power Grid


Electric power companies take actions to mitigate geomagnetic storm impacts

© ISO New England Inc. 2003

Procedure: Implement Solar Magnetic Disturbance Remedial Action

Process Name: Implement Emergency Operations

Procedure Number: RTMKTS.0120.0050

Revision Number: 6

Procedure Owner: Steve Weaver

Effective Date: March 29, 2005

Approved By: VP Operations Review Due Date: January 1, 2006

1. Discontinue maintenance work and restore out of service high voltage transmission lines. Avoid taking long lines out of service. 2. Maintain system voltages within acceptable operating range to protect against voltage swings.

3. Review the availability of the Chester SVC and Orrington capacitor banks to respond to voltage deterioration if necessary. 4. Adjust the loading on Phase 1 or Phase II, the Cross Sound Cable and Highgate HVdc ties to be within the 40% to 90% range of nominal rating of each pole.

5. Reduce the loading…














boundary analysis



Our military and National Intelligence Community rely on alerts and warnings of space weather storms:

• High-frequency and Satellite communications• Precision Navigation and Timing users (GPS users)• Radar operations• High-altitude operations• Space operations

Advance warnings of solar storms - “enables space operators to take proactive courses of action protecting 47 satellites that provide strategic and tactical space effects for the warfighter. – MGen William Shelton, Commander, 14AF, Vandenberg AFB, CA, April 2006

National Security Concerns


Critical to Disaster Relief and Recovery• Satellites have played a key role in providing critical

communications and network restoration services following many of the recent natural disasters including;• September 11th (2001)• Asian tsunami (2004)• Central Asian earthquake - which severed the SEA-ME-WE3 (2005)• Hurricane Season in US - i.e. Katrina, Rita (2005)• Taiwan Earthquake - which severed 6 major fiber-optic undersea

cables (2006)


ConclusionConclusion

The health of this Nation’s technological infrastructure will depend heavily on our understanding of the space environment and our ability to predict hazardous space weather storms.

Our ever-growing dependence on space-based technology will result in an increasing need for space weather services.


Thank You

Documents

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Space Weather Effects on Products and Services Supporting Surface Transportation Mark Gunzelman