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Office of the Chief Economist
The Housing Outlook
David F. SeidersChief Economist
Presentation to:The NAHB Construction Forecast Conference
April 26, 2007
Office of the Chief Economist
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
22
Office of the Chief Economist
Net Home Sales at Large Builders
(000s, SAAR, 3-Month Moving Avg., 30 Companies)
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
33
Office of the Chief Economist
S&P/C-S House Price Index
((Percent Change, Month-to-Month, Annualized, 3 Mo. MA, SA Series)Percent Change, Month-to-Month, Annualized, 3 Mo. MA, SA Series)
Composite 20Composite 20
Composite 10Composite 10
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
18
22
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Office of the Chief Economist
% of Housing Stock% of Housing Stock(right scale)(right scale)
Vacant Year-Round Housing Units on the Market
(000s, 3-Quarter Moving Average)(000s, 3-Quarter Moving Average) (Percent)(Percent)
No. of UnitsNo. of Units (left scale)(left scale)
55
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 062
3
4
5
Office of the Chief Economist
Vacant Year-Round Housing Units: For-Sale & For-Rent
(000s, 3-Quarter Moving Average) (000s, 3-Quarter Moving Average)
For-RentFor-Rent
For-SaleFor-Sale
66
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Office of the Chief Economist
Fed Funds Rate Target:Nominal & Real
Percent
NominalNominal
RealReal
77
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Office of the Chief Economist
Prime Mortgage RatesPercent
Fixed-Rate Mortgages
Adjustable-Rate Mortgages
88
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Office of the Chief Economist
ARM Share Of Mortgages For Home Purchase
PercentPercent
0
20
40
60
80
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
99
Office of the Chief Economist
Payroll Employment GrowthPercent change (Y/Y)
1010
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Office of the Chief Economist
Single-Family Home Sales(New and Existing)
(Thousands of Units, SAAR)
1111
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Office of the Chief Economist
Single-Family Housing Starts(Thousands of Units, SAAR)
1212
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Office of the Chief Economist
Multifamily Housing Starts: By TypeThousands of units, Seasonally Adjusted
5 or more units
2 to 4 units
1313
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Office of the Chief Economist
Multifamily Starts: Condo Vs. Rental
(000s, SAAR, 3-Quarter Moving Average)
RentalRental
CondoCondo
1414
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Office of the Chief Economist
Manufactured Home Shipments(Thousands of Units, SAAR)
1515
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Office of the Chief Economist
Total New Housing Units(Thousands of Units, SAAR)
1616
500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,400
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Office of the Chief Economist
Residential Remodeling
0
50
100
150
200
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Improvements Main/Repairs
(Billions $2000)
1717
Office of the Chief Economist
Residential Fixed Investment(Billions 2000 $, SAAR)
1818
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
