OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

1 WG/TCR

Analysis Results

and

Next Steps

Co-ChairsWorking Group for Tropical Cyclone

Research

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

WG/TCR 2

• Current research aligned with operational priorities– # 1 operational priority for NHC / CPHC / JTWC: intensity change

• National effort focused on #1 priority– 35% of research toward intensity and structure changes

– Little emphasis on forecaster aids (“guidance on guidance”) and model resolution vs. ensembles

• Need analysis to determine appropriate research levels– Allows direct application of research investments to desired

operational capability– Provides a baseline for establishing “next generation” strategic

objectives (e.g., based on ROI)– Highlights importance of verification capability

• Need regular update of database to relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives

Bottom Line—Up Front

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

WG/TCR 3

Combined Man-Years & $ Included in Study

Total Man-Years: 228 Total $

With Facilities: $50.2MWithout Facilities: 37.7M

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

WG/TCR 4

Combined Man-Years vs Research Category

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

WG/TCR 5

Combined Man-Years vs Research Category

General Research NWP Observations

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

WG/TCR 6

Combined Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities

Intensity

Change

Storm Surge

Observations

Genesis

Size/Structure

Stat Aids

Fcst Efficiency

Track Fcst

Wind Analysis

Model Res vs

Ensembles

QPFRadar/Sat. Data

Seasonal Progs

SST Gradients

TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities

Intensity &Structure:

~ 35%

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

WG/TCR 7

Combined Man-Years Mapped to NHC / CPHC Priorities

Intensity

Change

Storm Surge

Observations

Genesis

Size/Structure

Stat Aids

Fcst Efficiency

Track Fcst

Wind Analysis

Model Res vs

Ensembles

QPFRadar/Sat. Data

Seasonal Progs

SST Gradients

TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

WG/TCR 8

Combined Man-Years vs. Detailed Research

Research Gaps / Sufficiency

Intensity / Structure

Track Genesis QPF Surge

[Seasonal]

Model Development

Obs

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

WG/TCR 9

• First-ever comprehensive, interagency linkage of TC research to tropical forecast and warning center’s operational priorities – Developed repeatable process that can be updated on

an annual basis– Allows direct application of research investments to

desired operational capabilities• Next steps

– Agree on interagency strategic objectives (track, intensity, genesis)

– Relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives

– Document work of WG/TCR– Formalize executive oversight

Summary / Next Steps