43
www.platinum.matthey.com e

· PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

  • Upload
    vumien

  • View
    220

  • Download
    2

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Page 2: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

DISCLAIMER Johnson Matthey PLC endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials

contained within this presentation, but makes no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or

suitability for any particular purpose. Johnson Matthey PLC accepts no liability whatsoever in

respect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this

presentation, which are utilised expressly at the user’s own risk. In particular, this

presentation and the information and materials in this presentation are not, and should not be

construed as, an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any regulated

precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments, or

making any recommendation or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the

purchase, sale or other disposition of, any regulated precious metal related products or any

other regulated products, securities or investments including, without limitation, any advice to

the effect that any precious metal related transaction is appropriate or suitable for any

investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in any

regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or

investments should not be made in reliance on any of the information or materials in this

presentation. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek

advice from their financial, legal, tax and accounting advisers, take into account their

individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with

such investment decisions. This presentation does not, and should not be construed as acting

to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote any regulated precious metal related products or

any other regulated products, securities or investments.

Page 3: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum

Page 4: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum in 2012

• Platinum market in deficit of 375,000 oz

• Lowest primary supply for 12 years

• Marginal increase in autocatalyst demand

• Glass and electrical demand sharply down

• Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

• Lower prices retard autocatalyst recycling

Page 5: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum supplies

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

South Africa Russia North America Others

million oz

Page 6: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum supplies

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

South Africa

Russia

North America

Zimbabwe

Others

Total

4,860

835

350

340

100

6,485

4,095

800

295

340

110

5,640

(15.7)

-4.2

-15.7

0.0

10.0

-13.0

Page 7: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

South African net supply change 2011-2012

4,860 + 100

- 500

- 175 - 55

- 135

4,095

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

2011 supply Safetystoppages

Strikes Stockmovements

Mineclosures

Other 2012 supply

‘000 oz

Page 8: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum supplies

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

South Africa

Russia

North America

Zimbabwe

Others

Total

4,860

835

350

340

100

6,485

4,095

800

295

340

110

5,640

(15.7)

(4.2)

(15.7)

0.0

10.0

(13.0)

Page 9: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Autocatalyst

Industrial

Jewellery

Investment

Gross Demand

Recycling

Stock Movement

6,050

3,185

1,755

2,420

655

7,905

(1,830)

(25)

6,480

3,240

2,050

2,480

460

8.905

(2,045)

430

7.1

1.7

16.8

2.5

(29.8)

2.4

11.7

Page 10: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Gross platinum autocatalyst demand

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Europe Japan North America China ROW

million oz

Page 11: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

0

2

4

6

8

10

Europe Japan N. Am China Rest

World light duty diesel vehicle production

2011 2012

million units

0

1

2

3

4

5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Pt demand in emissions control catalysts

NRMM HDV LDD LDG

million oz

Page 12: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Autocatalyst

Industrial

Investment

Gross Demand

Recycling

Stock Movement

6,050

3,185

1,975

2,420

655

7,905

(1,830)

(25)

6,480

3,240

1,570

2,480

460

8.905

(2,045)

430

7.1

1.7

(20.5)

2.5

(29.8)

2.4

11.7

Page 13: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum industrial demand

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Chemical Electrical Glass Petroleum Medical & other

million oz

Page 14: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Autocatalyst

Industrial

Jewellery

Investment

Gross Demand

Recycling

Stock Movement

6,050

3,185

1,975

2,475

655

7,905

(1,830)

(25)

6,480

3,240

1,570

2,780

460

8.905

(2,045)

430

7.1

1.7

(20.5)

12.3

(29.8)

2.4

11.7

Page 15: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Gross platinum jewellery demand

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Europe Japan North America China ROW

million oz

Page 16: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Autocatalyst

Industrial

Jewellery

Investment

Gross Demand

Recycling

Stock Movement

6,050

3,185

1,975

2,475

460

7,905

(1,830)

(25)

6,480

3,240

1,570

2,780

455

8.905

(2,045)

430

7.1

1.7

(20.5)

12.3

(1.1)

2.4

11.7

Page 17: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Small bars & coins ETFs Large bars Other

million oz

Platinum investment demand

Page 18: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum ETF investment demand

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Platinum ETF holdings Platinum price

million oz $/oz

2011 2012

Page 19: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum supply and demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Gross demand

Recycling

Stock Movement

6,485

8,095

(2,060)

(25)

5,640

8,045

(2,030)

430

(13.0)

(0.6)

(1.5)

Page 20: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum recycling

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Autocatalyst Electrical Jewellery Pt average price

million oz $/oz

Page 21: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum supply and demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Gross demand

Recycling

Net demand

Stock movement

6,485

8,095

(2,060)

6,035

450

5,640

8,045

(2,030)

6,015

(375)

(13.0)

(0.6)

(1.5)

(0.3)

Page 22: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium

Page 23: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium in 2012

• Palladium swung into deficit of 1.07 million oz

• Lower primary and secondary supplies

• Russian state stock sales down by two-thirds

• Autocatalyst demand at an all-time high

• Weaker industrial and jewellery demand

• Net investment changed by over 1 million oz

Page 24: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium supplies

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

South Africa Russia North America Others

million oz

Page 25: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium supplies

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

South Africa

Russia primary

Russia stocks

North America

Zimbabwe

Others

Total

2,560

2,705

775

900

265

155

7,360

2,330

2,630

250

905

265

165

6,545

(9.0)

(2.8)

(67.7)

0.6

0.0

6.5

(11.1)

Page 26: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Autocatalyst

Industrial

Jewellery

Investment

Gross Demand

Recycling

Stock Movement

7,355

6,155

2,465

595

1,095

9,735

(1,850)

(530)

7,360

6,615

2,480

505

(565)

8,450

(2,345)

1,255

0.1

7.5

(0.6)

(15.1)

(151.6)

(13.2)

26.8

Page 27: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Gross palladium autocatalyst demand

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Europe Japan North America China ROW

million oz

Page 28: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Autocatalyst

Industrial

Jewellery

Investment

Gross Demand

Recycling

Stock Movement

7,355

6,155

2,465

595

1,095

9,735

(1,850)

(530)

7,360

6,615

2,365

505

(565)

8,450

(2,345)

1,255

0.1

7.5

(4.1)

(15.1)

(151.6)

(13.2)

26.8

Page 29: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Autocatalyst

Industrial

Jewellery

Investment

Gross Demand

Recycling

Stock Movement

7,355

6,155

2,465

505

1,095

9,735

(1,850)

(530)

7,360

6,615

2,365

445

(565)

8,450

(2,345)

1,255

0.1

7.5

((4.1)

(11.9)

(151.6)

(13.2)

26.8

Page 30: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Gross palladium jewellery demand

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Europe Japan North America China ROW

million oz

Page 31: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Autocatalyst

Industrial

Jewellery

Investment

Gross Demand

Recycling

Stock Movement

7,355

6,155

2,465

505

(565)

9,735

(1,850)

(530)

7,360

6,615

2,365

445

470

8,450

(2,345)

1,255

0.1

7.5

(4.1)(((4.1)

(11.9)

-

(13.2)

26.8

Page 32: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium ETF investment demand

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

Palladium ETF holdings Palladium price

million oz $/oz

2011 2012

Page 33: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium supply and demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Gross demand

Recycling

Stock Movement

7,360

8,560

(2,385)

(530)

6,545

9,895

(2,280)

1,255

(11.1)

15.6

(4.4)

Page 34: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium recycling

0

200

400

600

800

0.0

0.8

1.6

2.4

3.2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Autocatalyst Electrical Jewellery Pd average price

million oz $/oz

Page 35: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium supply and demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Gross demand

Recycling

Net demand

Stock movement

7,360

8,560

(2,385)

(6,175

1,185

6,545

9,895

(2,280)

7,615

(1,070)

(11.1)

15.6

(4.4)

23.3

Page 36: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Rhodium

Page 37: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Rhodium supply and demand

‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change

Supplies

Gross demand

Recycling

Net demand

Stock movement

765

908

(277)

(631

134

722

966

(259)

707

15

(5.6)

6.4

(6.5)

12.0

Page 38: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Outlook

Page 39: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Platinum outlook

• Primary supply may be a little higher this year

• Gross autocatalyst demand unlikely to grow in 2013

• Jewellery demand not quite as strong as last year

• Industrial demand expected to rebound

• Autocatalyst recycling is likely to increase

• Market balance sensitive to investment demand

Page 40: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

$/oz

2011 2012 2013

High: $1,710

Avg: $1,570

Low: $1,415

Platinum price forecast:

the next six months

Page 41: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

Palladium outlook

• Supplies are likely to fall again in 2013

• Russian state stock sales to diminish further

• Autocat demand to grow with higher vehicle output

• Industrial demand to be no more than stable

• Market undersupply to persist, supports investment

Page 42: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

$/oz

2011 2012 2013

High: $830

Avg: $740

Low: $635

Palladium price forecast:

the next six months

Page 43: · PDF filerespect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation ... •Strongly rising jewellery demand from China

www.platinum.matthey.com e

#Platinum2013