연구보고 C2002-6 / 2002. 6.

쌀산업발전을 위한 중장기대책세부 시행방안

이 정 환

김 명 환

김 정 호

박 동 규

서 진 교

오 내 원

임 정 빈

안 병 일

연구 담당

이 정 환 연구책임, 총괄 분석 조정

김 명 환 2002년 쌀시장안정, 수급조정 및 재고감축

김 정 호 구조개선, 경쟁력제고

박 동 규 유통정책

서 진 교 수급 및 가격전망

오 내 원 소득정책

임 정 빈 통상정책

안 병 일 구조개선, 경쟁력제고

강 태 훈 양곡거래소 성립조건과 운영방안

김 동 철 쌀소비 촉진방안

사 공 용 식량비축제도

정 영 일 일본의 쌀정책박 진 도 〃황 수 철 〃서 정 민 〃중국사회과학원 중국의 쌀산업

머 리 말

최근들어 쌀산업 여건이 급격하게 변하고 있다. 쌀 소비량이 줄어드는 반

면 연속된 풍작과 최소시장접근(MMA) 수입량 증가로 공급능력이 향상되어

재고량이 적정수준을 크게 초과하고 있다. 재고량이 증가하면 재고미 관리를

위한 재정부담이 증가할 뿐만 아니라 적정수준의 계절진폭이 형성되지 않아

민간유통이 위축되는 부작용이 발생한다. 민간유통이 활성화되지 않으면 농

가가 수확기에 출하한 물량이 흡수되지 못하여 가격이 큰 폭으로 하락하게

된다. 2001년 수확기 쌀가격이 전년동기 대비 5.3%나 하락하게 된 배경이다.

농업인은 적정가격 보장과 정부수매 확대를 요구하고, 이러한 과정에서 적지

않은 사회적 비용이 발생하였다.

한편, 우리 나라는 2005년부터의 쌀 수입방식에 대해 2004년도 말까지 재협

상을 완료해야 한다. 관세화 수용 여부에 관계없이 시장개방 폭은 현재 수준

보다 확대되어 쌀농업소득이 감소될 전망이다. 쌀가격이 큰 폭으로 하락할

경우 농업․농촌에 미치는 영향은 매우 크기 때문에 이에 대비한 소득안정화

방안 및 구조개선 등 종합적 대책마련은 시급한 과제가 아닐 수 없다. 또한

2005년까지는 재고량이 적정수준으로 유지되어 민간유통이 활성화될 수 있

도록 수급정책이 도입되어야 한다.

이 연구는 현안인 2002년 수확기 가격안정 대책과 수급조정 및 재고관리,

소득안정, 구조개선 및 경쟁력 제고 등 중장기 쌀산업발전 대책을 모색하기

위해 농림부의 연구자금을 지원받아 수행한 연구결과를 담고 있다. 생산자단

체, 소비자단체, 언론계, 학계, 관련 공무원 등을 대상으로 간담회와 토론회를

개최하여 각계의 다양한 의견을 수렴하였다.

짧은 기간에 중장기 수급전망, 가능한 정책대안들에 대한 평가, 정책 추진

방향 등에 관해 분석하고 결과를 정리한 연구자들의 노고를 치하하고, 연구

에 조언해준 관계자 여러분께 감사드린다. 이 보고서가 관련정책 수립에 유

용하게 활용될 것을 기대한다.

2002. 6

한국농촌경제연구원장 이 정 환

i

목 차

제1장 서 론 ············································································································ 1

1. 연구의 필요성 ······························································································· 1

2. 선행연구 검토 ······························································································· 2

3. 연구목적 ········································································································· 3

4. 연구범위와 방법 ··························································································· 4

제2장 쌀산업의 현실 ····························································································· 5

1. 쌀산업정책의 한계························································································ 5

2. 쌀 생산농가: 생산구조의 취약···································································· 6

3. 쌀시장: 쌀 유통체계의 부실 ······································································· 6

4. 정부: 쌀산업 안정체계의 부재···································································· 7

제3장 쌀산업의 여건변화와 전망 ········································································ 9

1. 쌀 수요량 변화 전망···················································································· 9

2. 쌀 생산량 변화 전망·················································································· 12

3. 쌀 생산농가 구조변화 전망······································································· 13

4. 국제시장 변화와 협상전망········································································· 15

제4장 쌀산업정책의 과제와 추진체계 ······························································· 17

1. 쌀산업정책의 과제······················································································ 17

2. 새로운 쌀산업정책 체계············································································ 19

제5장 2002년 쌀시장 안정대책 ······································································· 22

1. 쌀 가격 및 재고 동향················································································ 22

2. 2002년 가격 전망 ························································································ 24

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3. 2002년 쌀시장 안정시책············································································· 27

제6장 2002～5년 수급조정과 재고감축정책 ·················································· 29

1. 수급 전망과 대책의 방향·········································································· 29

2. 수급조정 정책대안······················································································ 32

제6장 부록 1. 생산조정제 검토·········································································· 38

제6장 부록 2. 재고 특별처분방안 검토······························································ 44

제6장 부록 3. 쌀 소비촉진방안 ········································································· 46

제6장 부록 4. 벼 재배농가의 단수, 임차료, 소득 분포 ···································· 48

제7장 쌀생산농가 소득지원제도 ········································································ 52

1. 쌀 소득지원제도의 필요성과 목적··························································· 52

2. 소득지원제도와 관련된 쟁점 검토··························································· 53

3. 소득지원제도의 대안 검토········································································· 57

4. 쌀 소득보전 직접지불제 도입 방안························································· 62

5. 정책효과 및 재정소요 추정······································································· 67

제7장 부록 : 정부수매와 소득보전직불제의 비교············································· 70

제8장 쌀시장 안정 지원정책 ·············································································· 72

1. 쌀시장의 문제····························································································· 72

2. 수매제도 개선 ····························································································· 83

3. 융자수탁사업 지원······················································································ 85

4. 양곡거래소 설립·························································································· 87

5. 공공비축제 확립·························································································· 89

제9장 쌀산업 구조개선과 경쟁력 지원정책 ····················································· 91

1. 쌀농업의 구조와 생산비 동향··································································· 91

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2. 쌀산업 구조개선의 과제············································································ 96

3. 농지유동화와 규모확대 지원····································································· 97

4. 품질 향상 중심의 쌀 생산․가공시스템 지원······································· 101

제9장 부록 1. 벼농사 농가의 논 경영규모별 경영 특성································· 104

제9장 부록 2. 쌀 생산비 및 소득 분석···························································· 107

제9장 부록 3. 논벼 단수의 전망 ······································································· 119

참고문헌 ··············································································································· 123

부록Ⅰ 지역별 토론회 결과 ············································································· 125

Ⅰ. 호남지역 ···································································································· 125

1. 개 요 ······································································································· 125

2. 토론 요지································································································ 126

Ⅱ. 충남․북 지역 ··························································································· 139

1. 개 요 ······································································································· 139

2. 토론 요지································································································ 140

Ⅲ. 영남지역 ···································································································· 150

1. 개 요 ······································································································· 150

2. 토론 요지································································································ 151

부록Ⅱ 양곡거래소의 성립조건과 운영방안 ·················································· 163

Ⅰ. 서 론 ·········································································································· 163

1. 연구의 필요성 ························································································ 163

2. 연구의 목적 ···························································································· 164

3. 연구의 방법 ···························································································· 164

Ⅱ. 양곡거래소 도입의 필요성과 타당성 ····················································· 165

1. 양곡거래소 도입의 필요성··································································· 165

iv

2. 양곡거래소 도입의 타당성··································································· 168

3. 양곡거래소 설립 반대론······································································· 187

Ⅲ. 양곡거래소의 운영방안 ············································································ 192

1. 인터넷 B2B거래와 양곡거래소 ··························································· 192

2. 양곡거래소의 구조················································································· 204

3. 양곡거래소 산지 B2B 운영방안··························································· 206

4. 양곡거래소 도매 B2B 운영방안··························································· 216

5. B2B 선도거래의 의의와 방법······························································· 225

6. 양곡거래소의 설립과 조직··································································· 233

7. 양곡거래소의 가격 공개······································································· 239

Ⅳ. 양곡거래소의 성립조건 ············································································ 240

1. 근거법령의 정비···················································································· 240

2. 양곡거래소 활성화를 위한 지원정책·················································· 241

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론 ···························································································· 255

부록Ⅲ 식량비축제도 ························································································ 257

Ⅰ. 비축제도에 대한 연구동향 ······································································ 261

1. 연구의 한계 ···························································································· 263

2. 이 연구의 범위에서 비축제도의 운영················································ 264

Ⅱ. 가격안정화를 위한 비축관리제도 : 관세화 유예의 경우 ··················· 267

1. 가격안정화의 효과················································································· 267

2. 적정 가격안정화를 위한 비축제도의 논의········································· 269

3. 농가기대효용 극대화를 위한 가격안정화정책··································· 271

Ⅲ. 비축관리 제도 : 관세화가 된 경우 ······················································· 294

1. 분석방법 ·································································································· 296

참고 1 : 두 확률변수의 무작위 추출법 ······················································ 308

참고 2 : SHAZAM 프로그램 ······································································· 310

v

부록Ⅳ 소비․가공분야 대책 ··········································································· 314

Ⅰ. 쌀의 소비 및 가공제품의 현황 ······························································ 314

Ⅱ. 쌀로 원료의 대체 가능이 있는 품목 ····················································· 318

1. 면류 제품 ································································································ 321

2. 과자류 제품 ·························································································· 322

3. 장류 제품 ································································································ 323

4. 음청류 제품 ···························································································· 324

5. 당류(엿류) 제품 ······················································································ 325

6. 주류 제품 ································································································ 325

7. 조미 제품 ································································································ 326

8. 식해 제품 ································································································ 327

Ⅲ. 쌀의 소비확대를 위한 쌀가공제품 개발 방안 ······································ 328

1. 간편식 밥류 가공제품 개발································································ 329

2. 기능성 죽류 제품의 개발··································································· 330

3. 신세대를 위한 과자류 개발 ································································ 332

4. 쌀주류 제품의 생산확대····································································· 333

5. 장류 및 물엿 제품의 개발································································· 334

7. 다양한 떡류 제품의 개발··································································· 335

8. 한과류 제품의 품질개선····································································· 336

9. 맞춤형 쌀가루 제품 개발··································································· 337

10. 밥공장 중심의 급식체계 개발···························································· 338

11. 밥류용 편의식 반찬류 개발 ································································ 339

12. 밥류 식생활의 우수성 규명································································ 339

부록Ⅴ 일본의 쌀정책 ······················································································ 345

Ⅰ. 쌀정책의 전개과정 ··················································································· 345

1. 식량법 이전의 쌀정책··········································································· 345

vi

2. 식량법 성립 이후 쌀정책 여건 변화·················································· 360

3. 식량법시스템의 본질과 구조································································ 383

4. 식량법시스템의 전개과정····································································· 391

Ⅱ. 수급정책: 생산조정정책을 중심으로 ····················································· 399

1. 식량법 이전의 생산조정······································································· 399

2. ｢식량법｣: 자주적 생산조정과 비축 및 조정보관제도의 도입·········· 405

3. ｢새로운 쌀 정책｣(1997년 11월): 긴급생산조정추진대책과 도작경영안정대책·· 409

4. ｢토지이용형농업활성화대책｣(1999년 10월) ········································· 413

5. 최근의 동향과 생산조정 및 비축제도의 문제점······························· 416

6. 평가 ········································································································· 422

Ⅲ. 유통정책 ···································································································· 429

1. 식량법 이전의 쌀 유통시스템······························································ 429

2. 식량법하의 쌀 유통시스템··································································· 452

Ⅳ. 최근의 쌀정책개혁 논의와 정부의 구상 ··············································· 490

1. 최근의 쌀정책개혁 논의······································································· 490

2. 정부의 쌀정책개혁 구상: 특징과 문제점 ············································ 504

부록Ⅵ 중국의 쌀산업 ······················································································ 518

Ⅰ. 쌀 생산 ······································································································ 522

1. 미곡생산: 총생산량 증가······································································ 522

2. 미곡생산의 구조변화: 지역과 품종····················································· 526

3. 미곡의 생산비용···················································································· 534

4. 미곡가격 ·································································································· 541

Ⅱ. 쌀 판매 ······································································································ 547

Ⅲ. 쌀 유통 ······································································································ 554

1. 일괄구입․일괄판매(統購統銷) ····························································· 554

2. 이중가격제(雙軌制) ················································································ 555

vii

3. 1998년의 개혁: 정부통제강화······························································· 558

4. 최근 상황 ································································································ 561

Ⅳ. 쌀 무역 ······································································································ 564

1. 쌀 무역의 발전······················································································ 564

2. 쌀 수출입 시장의 구조········································································· 566

3. 수출입 품종구조 ···················································································· 569

4. 쌀 수출가격과 정가체제······································································· 571

Ⅴ. 쌀 정책 분석 ···························································································· 573

1. 주요 쌀 정책·························································································· 573

2. 쌀 관리체제···························································································· 576

3. 쌀 무역정책···························································································· 579

4. WTO가입후 쌀 정책의 변화································································· 585

Ⅵ. 쌀 수요전망예측 ······················································································· 590

1. 과거의 예측···························································································· 590

2. 과제그룹의 간략한 예측······································································· 595

viii

표 차 례

제3장

표 3-1 쌀, 채소, 과실가격 및 재배면적 변화············································ 13

표 3-2 RPC 원료곡 매입품종 제한 ··························································· 13

제5장

표 5-1 쌀 산지가격 동향·············································································· 23

표 5-2 쌀 수급 및 재고 추세 ······································································ 23

표 5-3 2001년산 시장격리량별 계절진폭 전망·········································· 25

표 5-4 2002년산 벼 식부의향면적의 전년 대비 변화율··························· 26

표 5-5 2001년산 계절진폭별 2002년산 수확기 가격 전망 ······················· 27

제6장

표 6-1 쌀 수급 및 소득 전망: 명목가격 유지 시(baseline) ······················· 30

표 6-2 쌀 수급 및 소득 전망: 명목가격 매년 7% 하락 시 ····················· 32

표 6-3 쌀 수급, 소득 전망: 특별처분 ······················································· 33

표 6-4 쌀 수급, 소득 전망: 생산조정 ······················································· 34

표 6-5 총쌀소득 전망1 ················································································ 35

표 6-6 재정소요 전망 ·················································································· 35

표 6-7 순효과(소득-재정소요) ····································································· 36

표 6-8 쌀 수급, 소득 전망: 혼합방식 ······················································· 37

부표 6-4-1 농가의 단수 분포·································································· 48

부표 6-4-2 논 임차료 분포 ······································································ 49

부표 6-4-3 논 임차료 분포(호당) ···························································· 50

부표 6-4-4 농가의 소득분포···································································· 51

ix

제7장

표 7-1 쌀 가격과 소득 변화 전망······························································· 53

표 7-2 소득보전 직불의 소득효과와 재정소요·········································· 68

표 7-3 소득보전직불제 도입에 따른 수매량 전망···································· 69

제8장

표 8-1 수확기 매입물량(만석) ······································································ 74

표 8-2 RPC 수탁판매제 참여의향 ······························································· 77

제9장

표 9-1 벼 재배농가의 연평균 증감율······················································· 91

표 9-2 벼 재배면적 규모별 농가 분포····················································· 92

표 9-3 논벼 경영규모별 임차지비율························································· 92

표 9-4 논 경영규모별 농가 및 면적의 누적분포···································· 93

표 9-5 1995～2000년 10a 당 쌀생산비의 항목별 연평균 변화율··········· 95

표 9-6 2004년의 10a당 쌀생산비 추계······················································ 95

표 9-7 쌀전업농 지원농가 현황································································· 98

표 9-8 경영이양직접지불사업 연도별 예산액·········································· 99

표 9-9 미질에 영향을 미치는 요인 ························································· 102

표 9-10 RPC 건조․저장 및 도정능력(2000년 기준) ······························· 102

부표 9-1-1 주작목 형태별 ······································································ 104

부표 9-1-2 전겸업별 ··············································································· 104

부표 9-1-3 경영주 연령별 ······································································ 104

부표 9-1-4 경영주 교육정도별······························································ 105

부표 9-1-5 경영주 농사경력기간별 ······················································· 105

부표 9-1-6 농산물 판매금액별 ······························································ 105

부표 9-1-7 시도별 ··················································································· 106

부표 9-2-1 쌀 생산비 시계열 자료에 의한 트랜스로그 비용함수 계측결과·· 109

x

부표 9-2-2 2000년 재배규모별 평균생산량에 대한 비용 탄성치······ 110

부표 9-2-3 쌀 생산비 횡단면 자료에 의한 비용함수 계측결과······· 112

부표 9-2-4 시계열 자료에 의한 지대함수 계측결과·························· 114

부표 9-2-5 생산비 횡단면 자료에 의한 경영비 함수 계측결과······· 115

부표 9-2-6 생산규모에 따른 소득과 이윤의 변화······························ 118

부표 9-3-1 10대 주요품종의 재배면적과 점유 비율··························· 120

부표 9-3-2 쌀 단수의 증감 요인에 따른 수량 전망·························· 122

부록 Ⅱ

각 대안별 가격형성 및 유통의 효율성······························ 185

사이버 양곡거래소에 대한 지표별 평가····························· 186

도매시장, 개별 직접거래, 사이버 양곡거래소의 장단점 비교··· 189

off-line 직접거래와 on-line B2B거래의 특징 비교·············· 196

양곡거래소의 구성과 거래주체············································ 205

인터넷 하나로클럽 쌀 도매거래 조합 및 상품 내역········ 219

거래소 설립 및 운영비용 추정············································ 235

거래소 설립자본조달과 시트의 구성·································· 236

양곡거래소 도입절차와 일정················································ 238

산지별․품종별 그룹(예시) ··················································· 240

거래소 거래수준에 따른 물류비 지원 예상액과 잉여증대 효과··· 245

부록 Ⅲ

농가 기대효용 극대화하는 가격안정화······························· 275

가격 안정화로 인한 가격 변이계수의 변화······················· 276

가격 안정화로 인한 농가소득 변이계수 변화··················· 277

가격안정화의 이전효과························································· 278

가격안정화 정책을 위한 수매와 방출································ 280

기대되는 정부재고의 증가··················································· 281

xi

정부재고 수준에 따른 기대수입과 최대수입····················· 282

가격안정화 정책 하에서 기대수입······································ 283

최소 재고율 5% 설정시 현재 재고률에 따른 수입 ·········· 288

한국의 생산량과 수입량 예측·············································· 298

추출된 자료와 원자료의 특성비교······································ 303

관세화되었을 때 재고수준별 수입위험의 측정·················· 305

관세화 유예시 수입위험의 측정·········································· 307

부표 Ⅳ

가공용 쌀 공급가격 인상에 따른 소비둔화 및 가공식품업체 감소 추세·· 317

주요 원료곡물의 주요 성분함량과 유통가격······················· 320

부록Ⅴ

主食用 國産米의 集荷・販賣量 推移 ·································· 362 MMA쌀의 수급상황 ······························································· 363

政府米의 매입가격과 自主流通米價格의 비교(2000年産) ·· 366

미작수입과 소득의 추이(판매농가 1호당 전국 평균) ······· 367

미작수입 1위 농가의 경영유형(2000년) ······························ 367

생산조정의 추이···································································· 369

1994년산 정부미의 판매상황················································ 372

정부미의 식량원조 추이······················································· 374

주요 식량대책비의 추이······················································· 375

생산조정 지원금의 추이······················································· 376

自主流通比率의 推移(1995～1999미곡년도) ························· 378

新米의 제도별 출하처··························································· 379

생산자의 계획외유통미 판매처별 구성비··························· 380

미곡도매업자의 월말 재고량················································ 382

｢새로운 쌀정책｣의 재정지출계획········································ 394

xii

｢쌀수급안정대책｣에 의한 생산조정실시자의 수취단가: 단보당 ······ 411

생산조정실시자에 대한 ‘논 영농확립지원금’ 지급단가: 단보당 ····· 412

생산조정 목표면적 및 보조금 추이···································· 428

식용 멥쌀의 판매상황(1995～97년산) ·································· 481

브랜드그룹별 시장격리수량 및 판매예약수량(2001미곡년도) ········· 489

계획유통미와 계획외유통미간의 유통경비 차이(예시) ······ 518

부록Ⅵ

각 작물의 성장 ······································································ 526

중국의 논벼 품종별 분포····················································· 527

남북지역별 미곡생산량 구성················································ 529

미곡생산량 상위 10위내 성들의 생산량 변동 상황·········· 529

중국의 주요 미곡생산 성별 미곡품종 구성······················· 533

1985～2000 기간 식량 생산비 및 판매가격······················· 535

중국 미곡생산비용 및 구성 ··············································· 536

절강성 단립종 미곡 연도별 생산효율 상황······················· 537

1999년 농가 수도 생산 투자 및 산출 비교표··················· 538

2000년 중국 각 식량품종별 비용수익 비교 ····················· 540

1997～1998년 미곡 생산비의 국제비교······························· 541

중국의 1996～1998년 미곡 “Yellow Box” 정책지지 상황··· 547

중국 도시 및 농촌주민 엥겔계수 및 1인당 식품소비량 비교··· 549

1991년과 1998년의 도시농촌간 식품의 수요탄력성·········· 549

중국 미곡 소비구조(1990～2000) ·········································· 550

이중가격제(双軌制)의 가격차와 암세(暗稅) ························ 557

최근 2년간 중국 쌀수출입 현황·········································· 565

2001년 1～12월 중국 주요 쌀 수출대상국(상위 10위) ······ 567

2001년 12월 중국 주요 쌀 수출대상국(상위 10위) ············ 567

2001년 1～12월 국가별 쌀 수입(상위 10위) 상황 ·············· 568

xiii

2000년 중국 각 성별 쌀 수출입 통계································· 570

단립종과 장립종의 품질 기준·············································· 575

2002년 농산품의 국경무역 수출 물량 배분표···················· 582

중국이 WTO에 가입 후 과도기동안 TRQ ·························· 587

중국의 중장기 식량공급의 각종예측방안의 결과·············· 591

쌀의 공급, 수요와 무역에 관한 예측(1991-2020년) ··········· 594

xiv

그 림 차 례

제3장

그림 3-1 한, 중, 일 1인당 소비량 감소 동향············································ 10

그림 3-2 1인당 쌀 소비량 감소율 동향····················································· 11

그림 3-3 1인당 소비량 증감률과 소비자가격 변화·································· 11

제4장

그림 4-1 쌀산업 정책의 목표와 과제························································· 18

그림 4-2 쌀산업정책의 전환 체계도··························································· 21

제6장

그림 6-1 수급조정정책 체계도···································································· 31

부 그림 6-4-1 단수별 농가 분포······························································ 48

부 그림 6-4-2 단수별 면적 분포 ······························································ 48

부 그림 6-4-3 논 임차료 수준별 농가 분포··········································· 49

부 그림 6-4-4 논 임차료 수준별 면적 분포··········································· 49

부 그림 6-4-5 논 임차료 수준별 임차지 분포(호당) ····························· 50

부 그림 6-4-6 쌀 10a당 소득별 농가 분포············································· 51

부 그림 6-4-7 쌀 10a당 소득별 면적 분포············································· 51

제7장

그림 7-1 직접지불제의 효과 - 관세화 유예 경우 ····································· 56

그림 7-2 직접지불제의 효과 - 관세화 경우 ·············································· 57

그림 7-3 소득보전 직불제의 개념······························································· 63

그림 7-4 단위면적(ha)당 조수입 변화 전망(실질가격) ······························ 69

부 그림 7-1 소득보전직불과 수매축소의 소득효과······························· 71

xv

제8장

그림 8-1 쌀시장 출하량과 매입처별 매입량·············································· 74

그림 8-2 수매가격, 매입가격, 산지가격 비교(원/조곡40kg) ······················ 78

그림 8-3 월별 쌀농가 수취가격(미국) ························································· 81

그림 8-4 월별 자주유통미 지표가격(일본) ················································· 81

제9장

그림 9-1 10a 당 쌀 생산비 변화 추이······················································· 94

부 그림 9-2-1 생산규모에 따른 평균비용의 변화 추이(2000년) ········· 111

부 그림 9-2-2 쌀 생산규모별 평균생산비(2000년 기준) ······················ 113

부 그림 9-2-3 생산규모에 따른 단위당 생산비 및 경영비 변화 추이··· 116

부 그림 9-2-4 생산규모에 따른 단위당 소득 및 이윤의 변화 추이··· 117

부 그림 9-2-5 생산규모에 따른 총소득 및 총이윤의 변화 추이······· 118

부 그림 9-3-1 쌀 단수의 추이 ································································ 121

부록Ⅱ

양곡거래소 도입의 필요성················································ 168

양곡거래소의 구조····························································· 205

거래소 산지 B2B 거래․인수도․결제 절차 ················ 207

입찰흐름도 ·········································································· 208

거래소 도매 B2B 거래의 절차········································· 217

선도거래를 통한 가격발견················································ 226

생산자의 선도거래로 인한 헤지효과······························· 227

RPC의 선도거래로 인한 헤지효과··································· 228

양곡거래소의 조직 (안) ····················································· 237

지역내 종합 물류시스템의 구조······································ 252

권역별 물류시스템의 구조················································ 253

xvi

부록Ⅲ

수입과 과잉재고의 확률····················································· 262

재고변화에 따른 수입과 과잉재고의 확률······················· 265

비축제도를 통한 가격안정화의 효과································· 267

풍년으로 인한 가격하락의 방지········································ 291

재고 상한선의 영향 ····························································· 292

미국의 작황지수와 수출비중에 대한 가정······················· 300

한국과 일본의 작황지수····················································· 304

부록Ⅴ

自主流通米價格의 연도별 추이·········································· 364

식관제하의 쌀유통······························································· 455

식량법시스템하의 쌀 유통경로·········································· 456

생산조정에 있어 포지티브수량관리의 개념도·················· 506

부록Ⅵ

중국식량증가 현황····························································· 523

중국 미곡 생산량의 변화················································· 524

흑룡강성 벼생산량····························································· 528

2000년 중국 미곡생산 분포도·········································· 530

중국 각 식량품종의 비용 및 수익비교··························· 540

미곡 생산자가격································································· 543

최근 2년간의 벼수매가격 ·················································· 544

최근 2년간 중국 36개 대도시의 쌀 시장가격················ 545

장립조생종과 장립조생종쌀의 전형적인 시장가격········ 546

중국 식량미곡의 소비변화················································ 552

중국 사료용 미곡과 가공용 미곡의 변화······················· 553

중국식량유통설명도(1985-1998) ········································· 556

xvii

중국 쌀 수출입 변화························································· 564

중국 쌀 수출: 수량과 가격··············································· 571

중국 쌀 수출가격과 국제가격 비교································· 572

중국 쌀 생산의 영향을 미치는 요소······························· 598

제 1 장

서 론

1. 연구의 필요성

○ 최근 쌀 생산량이 증가하는 반면 소비량이 감소하여 재고량이 적정수준

이상으로 증가하고 있다. 이는 재고비용을 증가시키고 원활한 미곡유통

을 저해하는 요인이 되고 있다. 과잉재고처리 및 수급안정 방안 모색은

시급한 과제가 아닐 수 없다.

○ 또한 우리 나라는 2004년 말까지 관세화유예나 관세화전환 여부에 관한

재협상을 완료해야 한다. 대내외 양정여건 변화에 능동적으로 대응하기

위해서는 쌀산업발전을 위한 중장기대책과 세부 시행방안을 마련할 필

요가 있다.

○ 농림부는 지난 해 9월 ｢쌀산업발전 종합대책 방향｣을 발표하였으나 농업인,

농민단체, 학계 등에서는 종합대책의 타당성, 효과성 등에 관해 다양한 의

견을 제시하였다. 정책의 효과성을 극대화하기 위해서는 각계에서 제시한

2

의견을 적극적으로 검토하여 종합대책에 반영할 필요성이 제기되었다.

○ 또한 농림부는 쌀산업발전 중장기대책을 마련하기 위해 ｢쌀산업발전종

합기획단｣을 설치․운영하였으나 각계의 의견을 수렴한 보다 전문적인

연구를 수행할 필요가 있다. 생산자, 소비자, 학계의 의견을 수렴하는

동시에 보다 세부적이고 전문적인 검토를 요구하는 사항에 대한 심층분

석이 요구되고 있다.

2. 선행연구 검토

○ 최정섭 외(1999)는 농가소득 감소에 따른 소득보상 프로그램의 이론적

배경, 외국의 사례를 소개하였다. 또한 UR에서 허용하고 있는 개별정책

들의 도입방향을 제시하였으나 우리 나라에서의 직접지불제 적용가능

성을 검토하지 않았다.

○ 이정환 외(1997)는 쌀이 다소 부족하였던 시기에 ｢중장기 수급전망과 대

응방안 연구｣에서 공급을 확대하는 방안과 시장기능 의존적인 수매제도

개편 등 식량정책 추진 방향을 제시하였다. 공급과잉시에 적합한 유통

정책, 소득정책과 쌀재협상을 감안하여 중장기대책을 수립하기 위한 추

가적인 연구가 필요하다.

○ 한국농촌경제연구원(2001)은 ｢21C 농업․농촌의 비전과 발전전략｣에서

농업․농촌 발전전략과 함께 미곡유통 부문에서 정부 역할 재정립, 쌀

산업의 규모화, 유통체계의 개선, 직접지불제 개선 방향을 개괄적으로

제시하였다. 제안된 내용이 정책당국이 수용하여 실행할 수 있도록 하

3

기 위해서는 보다 구체적인 연구가 추진될 필요가 있다. 또한 새로운

여건에 적합한 제도가 도입될 경우 기존 제도와의 관계도 재정립되어야

할 것이다.

○ 한국농촌경제연구원(2000)은 논농업 직접지불제 도입방안과 관련정책의

조정방안을 제시하였다. 논농업 직접지불제 도입 당시와 최근의 쌀 수급

등 양정여건에는 큰 차이가 있기 때문에 기존제도의 한계 또는 문제점

을 분석하고 대안이 마련될 필요가 있다. 우리 나라와 유사한 쌀산업구

조를 가지고있는 일본의 정책을 참고하여 대안을 검토할 필요가 있다.

○ 한국농촌경제연구원(2001)은 최근 쌀산업 여건변화에 대응한 수급조정

정책, 유통 및 소득정책, WTO 쌀재협상 방향 등을 제시하였다. 본 연구

에서는 시나리오별 수급전망에 따른 쌀산업정책의 기본방향 도출을 연

구목적으로 하였다. 제안된 기본방향이 보다 구체화될 필요가 있다.

3. 연구목적

○ 쌀산업 중장기대책 세부시행방안 마련

- 쌀산업의 여건변화, 수급 및 소득전망

- 수급조정, 소득정책, 유통정책 대안검토

- 쌀산업 발전을 위한 정책대안 제시

○ 쌀산업 정책에 대한 국민적 이해 증진

- 쌀산업 발전방향 및 정책수단에 대한 농민, 전문가, 지방자치단체 등

각계의 의견 수렴

4

4. 연구범위와 방법

4.1. 연구범위

○ 본 연구의 범위는 2002년 수확기 쌀시장 안정대책, 2005년까지의 수급조

정과 재고감축 정책, 쌀 생산농가의 소득지원제도, 유통정책 및 경쟁력

제고 방안을 제시하는 것으로 하였다. 우리 나라의 쌀산업여건과 유사

한 일본의 쌀정책과 향후 우리 나라의 쌀산업에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있

는 중국의 쌀산업 현황도 검토하였다.

4.2. 연구방법

○ 시장개방 폭이 확대될 경우 재배면적, 쌀가격 및 소득 등 쌀산업에 미

치는 영향을 분석하기 위해 계량분석을 하였다.

○ 현실적인 쌀산업발전대책 세부시행방안을 마련하기 위해 연구진간의

업무협의회와 생산자단체, 소비자단체, 언론계, 학계 및 관련 공무원 등

이 참석한 정책간담회와 토론회 등을 거쳐 다양한 의견을 수렴하고 연

구내용에 반영하였다.

- 전문가 및 농민단체 등과 8회의 간담회 개최

- 지역별 토론회 개최(3회)

○ 생산조정제도 도입 시 농가의 참여 의향에 대한 우편조사를 실시하였

다. 또한 양질미 생산, 올해 벼농사 의향 및 수탁판매 참여 의향에 대해

농가와 미곡종합처리장을 대상으로 우편조사를 실시하였다.

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쌀산업의 현실

1. 쌀산업정책의 한계

○ 이제까지 쌀산업정책은 ｢수매-방출제도｣와 ｢생산지원 시책｣을 두 개의

축으로 추진되어 왔다. 정부는 수매-방출제도를 통해서 수확기 가격안

정, 농가소득지지, 소비자가격 안정을 도모하였다. 생산지원 시책을 통

해 국내생산 및 경쟁력을 제고하여 쌀산업의 성장을 꾀하였다.

○ 그러나 2001년도 수확기에는 재고가 927만석 수준으로 증가하고, 수확기

가격이 사상 처음 전년동기 대비 5% 이상 하락하는 상황이 발생하였다.

기존 쌀산업정책으로는 수급불균형, 급격한 가격하락에 따른 농가소득

감소 등의 당면 문제를 해결하는 데에 한계가 있음을 드러냈다.

○ 그런 가운데 쌀산업은 생산구조의 취약, 유통체계의 부실, 벼 재배농가

에 대한 경영안정시스템이 부족하기 때문에 쌀산업의 장래에 대한 불안

감이 확산되고 있다.

6

2. 쌀 생산농가: 생산구조의 취약

○ 총농가 138만 4천호 중 78%인 108만호가 벼농사에 종사하고 있다. 벼

재배농가 중 쌀소득이 많은 벼주작목농가는 79만호, 농업소득의 50% 이

상이 쌀소득인 벼주업농가는 65만호이기 때문에 쌀산업은 정치․경제적

으로 민감하며 쌀산업대책이 농업정책의 중심이 될 수밖에 없다.

○ 벼 재배농가의 대부분이 영세하고 고령경영주이기 때문에 경영개선에

어려움이 있다. 벼 재배농가 중 경영규모 0.5ha 이하인 농가의 비중은

42%, 경영주 연령이 65세 이상인 농가의 비율은 35.2%를 차지하기 때문

에 영세농가와 고령농가에 대한 소득대책 마련이 쌀산업정책의 전제조

건으로 판단된다.

○ 경영면적이 대부분 임차지로 구성되어있기 때문에 임대차시장 변화에

따라 규모확대와 소득이 큰 폭으로 변동할 수 있다. 2000년도의 벼 재배

면적 중 임차지 비율은 평균적으로 46.9%이며, 특히 경영규모 3～5ha 농

가와 5ha 이상 농가의 임차지 비율은 각각 61.0%와 66.3%에 이른다. 따

라서 임차시장의 안정은 규모확대와 대농의 경영안정에 필수적 요소이다.

3. 쌀시장: 쌀 유통체계의 부실

○ 쌀유통의 중심체인 미곡종합처리장(Rice Processing Complex: RPC) 경영

이 부실하고 거래가 불안정하다. 양곡 도매시장 기능이 위축되면서 투

명한 가격 결정기구(mechanism)로서의 역할을 하지 못하고 판로에 제약

을 받기 때문이다. 또한 경영규모가 영세한데다 계절진폭이 축소되어

7

적자 경영을 하는 RPC 개소수가 증가하고 있으며, 농협의 경우 조합경

영에 위험 요인이 되고 있다.

○ 수확기 홍수출하 물량을 흡수할 수 있는 효과적인 수단이 결여되어있기

때문에 수확기 가격이 불안정하다. 계절진폭에 대한 불안감이 있는 한

정부가 운영자금을 지원하여 수확기 가격을 안정시키는 데에는 한계가

있기 때문에 새로운 유통방식이 도입될 필요가 있다.

○ 상품을 고급화, 브랜드화 할 수 있는 유통여건이 구축되지 못하여 가격

차별화 기반이 취약하므로 양질미 생산으로 경쟁력을 향상시키는데 어

려움이 있다. 산지별로 품질을 관리할 수 있는 생산․가공․유통 시스

템 필요하다.

4. 정부: 쌀산업 안정체계의 부재

○ 새로운 여건에 대응할 수 있는 정부의 쌀산업 안정시스템이 없기 때문

에 쌀산업은 시장변화와 충격에 취약하다. 수급조정체계 결여로 2001년

재고량이 927만석으로 증가하였고, 재고량은 앞으로도 증가할 우려가

있다. 재고량이 적정수준을 상회하게 되면 민간유통을 위축시키는 문제

가 있다. 따라서 수급균형이 달성될 수 있도록 하고, 예상외의 국내외

공급 부족에 대응하는 새로운 시스템을 확립할 필요가 있다.

○ 향후 가격이 하락하고 단수가 정체될 경우 쌀소득은 하락세로 반전될

것으로 전망된다. 가격하락에 대응하여 농가소득을 안정시킬 수 있는

장치가 결여되어있기 때문에 생산농가가 불안한 실정이다. 한편 농가는

8

수매가격에 집착하기 때문에 쌀시장은 왜곡되고 정치문제화되고 있다.

가격이 하락하는 경우에 대비하여 농가소득을 보전할 수 있는 안정시스

템이 필요하다.

제 3 장

쌀산업의 여건변화와 전망

1. 쌀 수요량 변화 전망

○ 사회가 국제화되고 식문화가 육류중심으로 이행하면서 쌀소비량이 감

소하는 경향이 있기 때문에 쌀 소비량의 지속적 감소는 불가피한 것으

로 판단된다. 육류 소비량이 1kg 증가하는 경우 쌀소비량은 1.8kg 감소

하는 것으로 추정된다. 에서 보는 바와 마찬가지로 쌀소비량

감소는 우리 나라뿐만 아니라 쌀을 주식으로 하는 일본이나 대만에서도

일반화된 현상이다.

○ 우리 나라의 국민 1인당 소비량은 일본과 대만에 비해 많은 수준이나,

일본과 대만의 감소량은 최근 연간 2kg 이하인데 반해 한국은 연간 3～

4kg 정도 감소하는 추세이다.

○ 2001년 5월 이후 1인당 소비량 감소율이 급격히 감소하고 있다. 최근에

는 연간 감소량이 2.5kg 수준으로 떨어져 향후 소비량 감소폭이 줄어들

10

것으로 전망된다.

○ 또한 쌀 소비량은 가격 변화에 따라 소폭이나마 변동하기 때문에 실질

가격이 하락하면 소비 감소폭은 다소 둔화될 전망이다. 에서

보는 바와 마찬가지로 쌀소비자가격지수가 하락하면 쌀소비량 감소율

이 둔화되는 반면 쌀소비자가격이 상승하면 쌀소비량 감소율이 증가하

는 경향이 있다. 쌀실질가격이 10% 하락하면 소비량은 2.3% 증가하는

것으로 분석되었다.

○ 1990년대 후반에는 1인당 소비량 감소폭이 가속되었으나, 앞으로는 가

격하락에 의한 소비 촉진 등의 요인으로 연간 감소폭은 2kg 내외 수준

에 머물 것으로 예상된다.

그림 3-1 한, 중, 일 1인당 소비량 감소 동향

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37

1인

당쌀

소비

량(㎏

/년)

한국 일본 대만

11

주: 소비량이 감소하기 시작한 연도 이후 감소추이를 나타냄.

그림 3-2 1인당 쌀 소비량 감소율 동향

-5.0

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

년 / 월

쌀1인

당소

비감

소율

(%)

99.1 99.6 00.1 00.6 01.1 01.6

주 : 1인당 소비량 증감률은 1999.1～2001.12 기간중 매월 12개월 이동평균치의 전년동기 대

비 증감률임.

그림 3-3 1인당 소비량 증감률과 소비자가격 변화

12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

1인

당쌀

소비

량감

소율

(%)

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

쌀소

비자

가격

지수

1인당소비량 감소율

소비자가격지수

2. 쌀 생산량 변화 전망

○ 논벼 재배면적은 1997년도 이후에는 대략 105만ha 수준을 유지하고 있

다. 반면, 밭벼 재배면적은 2000년도부터 증가하여 2001년에는 2만7천ha

를 기록하였으며 최근의 벼 재배면적 증가를 주도하였다. 품질위주의

쌀생산이 강조되면서 밭벼 재배면적은 급격히 줄어들 가능성이 있다.

○ 벼 재배면적은 쌀가격에 따라 변하기 때문에 (쌀 실질가격 10% 하락에

따라 재배면적 1.5% 감소), 앞으로 실질가격이 하락하면 재배면적은 줄

어들 것으로 전망이다. 은 가격과 재배면적간의 역관계를 보여

주고 있다. 1990년대 전반기에는 쌀가격이 상대적으로 하락하여 벼 재배

면적이 채소, 과일 등 타작물 재배로 전환되었으며 1990년대 후반기에

는 상대가격이 상승하여 채소, 과일 등의 재배지가 벼 재배로 전환되었다.

○ 1990년대 후반의 단수는 1990년대 전반 대비 50kg 증가하였다. 단수 증

13

대는 다수확품종 확대요인(전체 단수증가의 46%) 외에 동북아시아의 기

상여건도 중요한 요인이었다. 일본은 고품질 벼 중심으로 재배되었으나,

1990년대 후반의 단수는 전반기 대비 22kg 증가한 것을 감안하면 우리

나라의 단수 증가추세는 완화될 것으로 보인다.

○ 기상요인, 양질미 품종 확대, 비료 투입량 축소 등을 종합적으로 고려하

면 향후 단수는 추세선보다 낮은 수준에 머물 것으로 전망된다. 2010년

도 추세단수는 516kg이나 양질미 품종 확대 및 환경친화적 농법 도입

등으로 인해 498kg으로 전망된다.

○ 204개소 RPC를 대상으로 조사한 결과 조사대상 RPC의 51%가 2001년도에

품종을 제한하였으나 금년에는 92%가 고품질 위주로 품종을 제한할 계

획을 가지고 있는데 이는 단수증대의 한계를 보여주는 한 예로 해석된

다(표 3-2 참조). 또한 3품종 이내로 원료곡 매입을 제한하겠다는 RPC 개

소수도 2001년도 63개소에서 2002년도에는 105개소로 늘어날 전망이다.

표 3-1 쌀, 채소, 과실가격 및 재배면적 변화

1990 1995 2000기간별 변동

1990～’95 1995～’00

벼가격지수 107.0 100 113.4 -7.0 13.4

면적(천ha) 1,244 1,056 1,072 -188 16

채소가격지수 94.3 100 78.0 5.7 -22.0

면적(천ha) 277 322 296 45 -26

과실가격지수 74.7 100 66.0 25.3 -34.0

면적(천ha) 132 172 169 40 -3

표 3-2 RPC 원료곡 매입품종 제한

14

단위 : 개소수(%)

2001년 2002년(계획)

제한 제한 안함 계 제한 제한 안함 계

104(51.0% ) 100(49.0% ) 204(100.0% ) 187(91.7% ) 17(8.3% ) 204(100.0% )

3. 쌀 생산농가 구조변화 전망

○ 1990년대 들어 대규모 계층의 면적비중이 빠르게 증가하여 벼 재배의

대농집중 현상이 뚜렷하게 나타나고 있다. 2ha 이상을 경영하는 농가의

논면적 비중이 1990년도 16.8%에서 2000년도에는 33.6%로 증가하였다.

재배면적 평균규모도 1990년도 1.37ha에서 1995년 1.75ha, 2000년도에는

2.12ha로 확대되었다.

○ 벼 재배농가 경영주의 55%가 60세 이상이고, 35%가 65세 이상이므로 앞

으로 은퇴 등에 의한 농가호수 감소가 가속화될 전망이다.

○ 경영규모가 커질수록 생산비가 꾸준히 감소하여 규모가 클수록 효율성

이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 경영규모가 0.5ha인 농가의 kg당 생산비가

1,290원인데 반해 경영규모 10ha인 농가의 kg당 생산비는 1,040원 수준으

로 19.4% 낮은 것으로 분석되었다.

○ 대농으로 갈수록 단위당 토지순수익이 높아져, 임대차료 수준을 초과하

기 때문에 임차를 통한 농지의 대농집중 조건이 갖추어진 것으로 판단

된다.

15

○ 이러한 추세가 계속된다면 2010년에는 60% 이상의 논이 2ha 이상 규모

계층에서 경작되고, 재배면적 평균규모는 4ha 수준으로 늘어나 대규모

농가 중심으로 농지 집중이 가속될 것으로 전망된다.

○ 80kg당 쌀 불변가격 생산비는 지속적으로 감소하고 있다. 1985～’90년

동안 연평균 0.8%, 1990～’95년 동안 연평균 1.3%, 1995년 이후에는 연평

균 3.6% 감소하여 생산 효율성 향상이 가속되고 있다.

○ 생산효율성 향상 추세가 지속되고, 투입재 가격이 하락하면 앞으로 실

질생산비는 빠른 속도로 감소할 수 있을 것으로 전망된다.

4. 국제시장 변화와 협상전망

4.1. 국제 쌀 시장 변 화

○ 국제 쌀 교역량은 꾸준한 증가세를 보이고 있으며, 2000년 기준 2,600만

톤 수준이다. 교역량 중 10% 정도는 중단립종으로 추정되며 나머지는

장립종과 향미 등 특수한 쌀이다.

○ 중국산 중립종 가격이 1996～2000년에 10.5% 하락한 반면, 우리 나라의

쌀 가격은 동일 기간동안 18.7%나 상승하여 국내외 가격차이가 확대되

고 있다. 2001년도에 우리 나라가 수입한 MMA 물량 중 중국산 가격은

톤당 278달러인 반면 미국산 가격은 335달러로 미국산보다 17% 정도 낮

은 수준이다.

○ 중국의 쌀 생산량은 꾸준히 증가하는 반면, 국민 1인당 소비량은 103.8kg

16

에서 89.6kg으로 감소하여 수출여력이 증가하고 있다. 생산량 중 단립종

비중은 1985년 16.5%에서 2000년에는 32.0%로 증가하여 중단립종 공급

력이 급격히 증가하고 있는 것으로 보인다. 쌀 소득이 타 곡물에 비해

현저히 높기 때문에 WTO 가입 후 다른 곡물생산은 감소하고 쌀 생산은

더욱 증가할 전망이다. 또한 중국 단립종 쌀 생산비는 미국산에 비해

40%나 낮아 국제경쟁력이 있으므로 한국에 대한 수출이 확대될 가능성

이 매우 높다1.

4.2. 협상 전망

○ WTO 농산물협상에서 2003년 중에 결정될 관세 감축율 및 AMS 감축폭

은 UR 합의 수준보다 높은 수준이 될 가능성이 큰 것으로 예상된다. 뉴

라운드의 성격을 규정하는 각료선언문은 UR 협정문보다 농산물 교역의

개혁에 보다 적극적인 입장을 표명하였기 때문이다. UR 전문에는 농업

보조와 보호를 점진적으로 실질적 감축을 하기로 하였으나, 도하선언에

서는 시장접근과 국내보조 부문에서 실질적 개선과 감축을, 수출보조에

서는 점진적 철폐를 목표로 감축하도록 하였다.

○ 2004년 쌀재협상에서 2005년 이후에도 관세화를 유예하려면 수출국들에

게 추가적이고 수용가능한 양허를 제공하여야 하며, 협상여건은 우리에

게 불리하게 변화되고 있다. 일본은 1999년 4월에 관세화로 전환하였으

며, 이스라엘은 2000년 관세화유예 협상 없이 관세화로 전환하였다. 중

국은 WTO 가입과 동시 2002년부터 관세화로 시장을 개방하였으며,

TRQ 물량에 대해서는 1%의 관세를 부과하고 TRQ 초과 물량에 대해서

는 관세율 60%를 적용하고 2004년에는 40%로 인하하기로 하였다. 2002

1) 중국의 쌀산업에 대한 내용은 부록 Ⅵ 참조.

17

년에 WTO에 가입한 대만은 2002년까지 관세화를 유예하였으나, MMA

로 8%를 허용하고 2002년 중에 관세화유예 연장에 관한 재협상을 하기

로 하였다. 중국과 대만은 TRQ 수입관리와 절차(쿼타운영방식과 용도

및 가격 등)에 엄격한 제한 조치를 수용하였다.

○ 이러한 상황을 고려할 때 2005년 이후에 관세화가 유예되고, MMA는

2010년에 8% 이상 10～12%로 증가시키는 것은 매우 낙관적인 가정이

될 수 있다. 반면에 2005년 관세율 385% 내외, 2010년까지 관세가 15～

24% 감축되는 것은 비관적 시나리오라 할 수 있다.

제 4 장

쌀산업정책의 과제와 추진체계

1. 쌀산업정책의 과제

○ 농가소득안정, 국내생산 유지, 쌀공급안정을 통해 농가경제를 보호하고

다원적 기능이 보전되도록 쌀산업정책이 전환될 수 있는 여건이 조성되

어야 한다.

○ 2002년도 수확기 가격을 안정시켜 정책에 대한 신뢰감을 회복하고, 농

가의 불안감을 해소하여 정책전환의 여건이 조성되도록 하는 것이 중요

하다. 2001년 수확기에 경험한 바와 마찬가지로 수확기 가격이 큰 폭으로

하락할 경우에는 모든 정책적 노력이 가격안정에 집중될 가능성이 크다.

○ 2005년까지 수급을 균형시키고, 과잉재고를 처분하여 새로운 정책체계

가 정착될 수 있는 여건을 조성해야 한다. 수급균형이 이루어지지 않아

재고량이 누증될 경우에는 민간 유통기능이 위축되고 재고관리 비용이

증가하여 장기 쌀산업발전을 위한 정책전환에 장애요인이 될 수 있다.

19

○ 2003년까지 쌀산업정책을 새로운 ｢쌀시장 안정장치｣와 ｢농가소득지원

제도｣, ｢쌀농업 구조개선 지원시책｣을 중심으로 재편하여 농가경제를

보호하고 다원적기능을 보전하도록 한다.

○ 2003년 말까지 관세화에 대응하는 체제를 완비하여 협상력을 제고할 필

요가 있다. 관세화에 대응하는 체제가 완비되지 않으면 협상력이 약화

되어 관세화 유예를 위해 과도한 MMA 증량 등 불이익이 발생할 우려

가 있다. 최소한의 양보로 관세화를 유예하거나 최대한 유리한 조건으

로 관세화될 수 있는 협상력을 갖추기 위해서는 쌀산업정책이 전환될

수 있는 여건을 조성해야 한다.

그림 4-1 쌀산업 정책의 목표와 과제

20 0 2년 쌀시장 안정

수급조정과

과 잉재고 감축

쌀산업정책 전환

새로운 농가소득

지원제도

새로운 쌀시장

안정장치

쌀농업 구조개선

지원

농가소득 안정 최소한의 양보로

관세화 유예

국내생산 유지

쌀공급 안정

최대한 유리한

조건으로 관세화

협상력 제고

농가경제 보 호

다원 적 기 능 보 전

20

2. 새로운 쌀산업정책 체계

○ 농가소득을 안정화시키기 위해 기존의 논농업직불제를 활용하고, 논농

업직불제의 한계를 보완해주는 소득보전직접지불제를 도입하여, 규모확

대 지원 등을 통해 경쟁력이 향상되도록 유도해야 한다(그림 4-2 참조).

○ 생산조정방식보다는 시장기능을 활용하여 수급균형을 도모하되 앞으로

수년간 과잉생산되는 물량은 국내외원조용, 비식용 등으로 특별처분하

여 가격이 급격하게 하락하는 것을 방지해야 한다.

○ 수확기 가격안정은 유통업체로 하여금 원료곡 매입지원을 강화하고 확

대하기보다는 시장의 수급에 대한 불안감을 해소하여 유통업체가 자발

적으로 보관‧매입의향이 높아지도록 하는데 중점이 두어져야 한다.

○ 노령경영주에 대한 경영이양 직불규모를 확대하여 규모확대가 용이하

게 하되, 다양한 형태의 농가가 경쟁적으로 발전하도록 유도한다.

○ 쌀농업 소득변동에 연동시킨 소득보전직접지불제도(amber box)를 도입

하여 시장가격 하락에 대응한 농가소득 안정장치를 마련해야 하며 이를

위해서는 국내총보조(AMS) 여유분을 확보해야한다.

○ 우선 약정수매량을 감축시켜 소득보전 직불제 시행에 필요한 AMS를 확

보하되, 장기적으로는 공공비축용 싯가수매로 전환해나가야 한다.

○ 논농업직불제(green box)는 현 수준으로 유지하여 쌀 생산농가의 소득방

어 기반으로 이용하고, 쌀소득 하락분의 일정비율을 보전해주는 소득보

21

전직불제도를 도입하여 소득안정을 유도해야 한다.

○ 융자수탁사업을 활성화시켜 수확기 홍수출하를 방지함으로써 수확기

가격불안을 방지하고, RPC 경영이 안정될 수 있도록 유도한다.

○ 융자수탁사업 활성화를 계기로 RPC로 출하를 집중시켜 생산․가공을

계열화하고, 브랜드화하여 품질 및