OECD- Middle Class

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The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries

DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEVELOPMENT CENTRE WORKING PAPERS

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CENTRE DE DÉVELOPPEMENT DOCUMENTS DE TRAVAIL

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OECD Development Centre Working Paper No.285

DEV/DOC(2010)2

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

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PREFACE

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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RÉSUMÉ

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ABSTRACT

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

#!$%&'!"()(! H!

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I. INTRODUCTION

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#!vj+78=-!W08!&04;./5,45wC!E-,74!%>040:,>!G0<,>?!J.;,.2@!


DEV/DOC(2010)2

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Fajri Siregar

Fajri Siregar


DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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Fajri Siregar

Fajri Siregar


DEV/DOC(2010)2

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Fajri Siregar


DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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Fajri Siregar


DEV/DOC(2010)2

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Fajri Siregar


DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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Fajri Siregar

Fajri Siregar

Fajri Siregar


DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

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Fajri Siregar


DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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Fajri Siregar


DEV/DOC(2010)2

#!$%&'!"()(! ")!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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Fajri Siregar

Fajri Siregar


DEV/DOC(2010)2

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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ANNEX 1. PROJECTIONS METHODOLOGY#'

Step 1: Historical database

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

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Step 3: GDP at market exchange rate projections, 2007-2050

$4>.!2.!+7;.!>04-8748!"((H!YL'!X'G!6/0o.>8,04-!D-,45!8+.!&0AAS'0D5<7-!10/:D<7!ThUC!2.!8+.4!.-8,:78.!>+745.-!,4!.`>+745.!/78.-!80!.`6/.--!0D/!10/.>7-8-!78!:7/3.8!.`>+745.!/78.-@!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

#!$%&'!"()(! kH!

Step 4: GDP at PPP exchange rate projections, 2008 - 2050

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Step 5: Per capita projections, 2008 – 2050

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Step 6: Poor, Middle, and Rich Class Projections

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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REFERENCES

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EXVK$WC!G@!749!G@!V$jK**!T"((NUC!vE66/06/,78.!X/028+!G0<,>?Q!E!Y4,1?,45!B/7:.20/3wC!l0-.6+!L>+D:6.8./![.>8D/.C!1(<7&.+!(0!$:#!2<7(>#.&!2*(&(A/*!B))(*/.$/(&@!C.>#7)!.&8!C7(*##8/&D)!k!T"ShUQ!"NtSh)k@!

ExKxC! l@! 749! [@! &YK! T"((HUC! v%`6<7,4,45! &+,47=-! [02! &04-D:68,04Q! *+.! W.5<.>8.9! J0<.! 01!V0D-.+0<9!K4>0:.wC!j0/3,45!G76./!(HR)m)C!K48./478,047<!Z04.87/?!BD49C!j7-+,45804C!'&@!

]EW%Jl%%C!E@!749!%@!'YB[$!T"((HUC!vj+78!,-!Z,99<.!&<7--!7A0D8!8+.!Z,99<.!&<7--.-!E/0D49!8+.!j0/<9rw!ZK*!'.67/8:.48!01!%>040:,>-!j0/3,45!G76./!(HS"tC!&7:A/,95.C!ZE@!

]EWKL*%JC!l@!T"((IUC!vZ74D17>8D/,45!%7/4,45-!749!&0:6.4-78,04!,4!&+,47wC!'(&$:+6!3."(7!P#L/#%!)"m!TmUQ!""Sk(@!

]EJJ$C!J@!T)ttNUC!v'.8./:,4748-!01!%>040:,>!X/028+Q!E!&/0--S&0D48/?!%:6,/,>7<!L8D9?wC!W]%J!j0/3,45!G76./!INtmC!W78,047<!]D/.7D!01!%>040:,>!J.-.7/>+!K4>@C!&7:A/,95.C!ZE@!

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]VE[[EC! L@! T"((tUC! 9:#! '/88+#! -+.))! 5/&D8(A)! (0! H&8/.! .&8! -:/&.@! G.8./-04! K4-8,8D8.! 10/!K48./478,047<!%>040:,>-C!j7-+,45804C!'&C!T10/8+>0:,45U@!

]KJ'LE[[C!W@C!&@!XJEVEZ!749!L@!G%**KWE*$!T"(((UC!vL8D>3!,4!*D44.<Q!K-!X<0A7<,n78,04!ZD99<,45!8+.!Z,99<.rw!j0/3,45!G76./!)kC!]/003,45-!K4-8,8D8,04C!j7-+,45804C!'&@!

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&VEWC!j@&@!749!E@!*L%! T"((HUC!v*+.!&04-D:./!*/76Q!J.87,<./-!W..9!80!E9768! 80!%48,>.!B,>3<.!&+,4.-.!L+066./-!,480!*+.,/!L80/.-wC!Z>i,4-.?!Å!&0:674?@!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

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DEV/DOC(2010)2!

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DEV/DOC(2010)2

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