ODMP hydrology and water resources Inception report

Government of Kingdom of Denmark Government of Republic of Botswana Ministry of Foreign Affairs National Conservation and Strategy Agency

Danida Department of Water Affairs

Ref No: 104.Botswana.1.MFS.8 Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre

Okavango Delta Management Plan Hydrology and Water Resources

INCEPTION REPORT December 2003

Scanagri Denmark A/S DHI Water and Environment

Hedeselskabet

Geographic Resource Analysis and Science A/S

CSIR

Liebenberg and Stander

Engineering Hydrological and Environmental Services


OKAVANGO DELTA MANAGEMENT PLAN HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

INCEPTION REPORT

List of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

1.2 Organisation

1.3 Inaugural Workshop and Steering Committee

1.4 Technical Task Force

1.5 Report Structure

2 OBJECTIVE AND OUTPUTS

2.1 Objective

2.2 Outputs

2.3 Quality Assurance

3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Okavango River Basin and Delta

3.2 Analysis of Existing Conditions

3.3 ODMP Impact Analysis

3.4 Capacity Building in DWA

4 ACTIVITIES

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Data Collection and Processing

4.3 Monitoring Programme

4.4 DWA Modelling Unit 4.5 Topographic Model 4.6 Integrated Hydrologic Model 4.7 Model Application

4.8 Reporting

4.9 Related Okavango Delta Projects

Inception Report page i

Hydrology and Water Resources Okavango Delta Management Plan

List of Contents (cont)

5 INPUTS

5.1 Project Staffing

5.1.1 Consultants

5.1.2 Proposed Staff Changes

5.1.3 DWA Staff

5.2 Equipment 5.2.1 Project Vehicles

5.2.2 Computer Hardware

5.2.3 Computer Software

5.2.4 Office Furniture and Equipment

5.2.5 Monitoring

5.3 Project Finances

5.3.1 Introduction

5.3.2 Danida Project Finances

5.3.3 GoB Support to DWA

6 SUMMARY OF KEY ISSUES

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Improved Monitoring

6.3 DWA Modelling Unit 6.4 Equipment 6.5 Danida Finances

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Project Reports

Scientific Papers

ANNEX A – LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ASSESSMENT

ANNEX B – WORKING PAPERS

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List of Figures

1.1 ODMP Components

1.2 Project Organisation

3.1 Okavango River Basin

3.2 Okavango Delta

3.3 Flow Processes in Delta

4.1 Hydrology and Water Resources Activity Schedule

4.2 Distribution of Water Level Gauging Stations in Delta

4.3 Distribution of Boreholes in and around Delta

4.4 Landsat Image of part of Delta

4.5 Schematic Representation of MIKE SHE Model

5.1 Project Staff Schedule

5.2 Computer System for Modelling Unit

List of Tables

5.1 Local Travel Expenses

5.2 DWA Finances

Inception Report page iii


List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

ARB Agricultural Resources Board CTA Chief Technical Advisor DAHP Department of Animal Health and Production Danida Danish International Development Agency DCP data collection platform (automatic sensing and transmission of measured

data) DCPF Department of Crop Production and Forestry DED German Development Service DGS Department of Geological Surveys DLUPU District Land Use Planning Unit DMS Department of Meteorological Services DSM Department of Surveys and Mapping DoT Department of Tourism DTRP Department of Town and Regional Planning DWA Department of Water Affairs DWNP Department of Wildlife and National Parks FTP file transfer protocol GoB Government of the Republic of Botswana HOORC Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre (of the University of

Botswana) IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources -

World Conservation Union KCS Kalahari Conservation Society LAN local area network MEWT Ministry of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism MMEWR Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources NCSA National Conservation and Strategy Agency NWDC North West District Council ODIS Okavango Delta Information System ODMP Okavango Delta Management Plan OKACOM Okavango River Basin Commission PPADB Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board PMG Project Management Group (for the Okavango Delta Management Plan) QAP Quality Assurance Plan TLB Tawana Land Board VPN virtual private network

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Hydrology and Water Resources is one of the ten components of the Okavango Delta Management Plan (ODMP), for which NCSA has overall responsibility. The component is implemented by the Department of Water Affairs (DWA). Together with the Research and Data Management component implemented by HOORC, the Hydrology and Water Resources component is supported jointly by the Governments of Botswana through the Ministry of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism, and Denmark through Danida. The Danida support is implemented by Scanagri Denmark A/S and its international and national subconsultants. In parallel with ODMP, the two components commenced on 1st May 2003 with a duration of 39 months. The day to day management is carried out by the Team Leader, supported by national and international specialists each with a series of short term inputs in various specialities covering information technology, biology, water resources and remote sensing. The Team Leader’s long term input is 18 months up to May 2005, thereafter two months for short term support up to the end of the ODMP project in July 2006. The Project Office is in DWA, Gaborone, including the DWA Modelling Unit, which will be the focus for the establishment of the Integrated Hydrologic Model of the delta. The ODMP Project Steering Committee is responsible for overseeing the entire management plan. Technical Task Forces are being constituted for each of the two components, with the broad role to monitor progress, and guide implementation.

Hydrology and Water Resources The immediate objective of the Hydrology and Water Resources component is improved water resources planning, monitoring and evaluation in the Okavango Delta, based on an enhanced capacity in DWA. The principal means of analysis for the waters of the Okavango will be an Integrated Hydrologic Model, with its upstream boundary either at Divundu in Namibia or Mohembo in Botswana. The waters of the delta fall into three categories: atmospheric, surface and ground water. There is a close interaction among these categories. The river flow at Divundu enters a terminal system, dispersing through the channel and flood plains of the delta and taking two routes: to the atmosphere by a process of evaporation, and to ground water by a process of infiltration. The hydrologic model must have a realistic representation of the complex physical phenomena governing the delta. This implies a base in the fundamental laws of physics and an explicit representation of the features. Models developed previously have conceptual bases, with only an implicit representation of certain key features such as river channels.

Inception Report page S-1


Monitoring Basic information on the hydrology of the Okavango Delta is essential for the management plan to comprehend the processes at work in shaping the delta. The component has gone to considerable lengths to collect and evaluate these data and information. The existing DWA hydrology network in the delta is extensive, though the quality of the data is poor. The main problems are access to the gauging sites along the river systems, and disturbance of the stations by wild animals and theft by humans. The water level gauge boards are not related to a common datum. Overall quality control is lacking, also with respect to archiving and post processing of the data. Data collection platforms with automatic sensors and satellite transmission of the data have fallen into disrepair. Ground water monitoring in and around the delta is limited to the area around Maun. The two main holders of data, DWA and DGS, use different databases with different formats. These should be made compatible. There are no boreholes in the inner delta, and very few along the eastern margin. DWA requested DSM to carry out a high accuracy GPS survey of the gauge board bench marks in the delta, of which there are around 70. Logistic support in the form of guides, vehicles and boats was provided by DWA. This proved a major undertaking, and demonstrates a solid cooperation between the two departments. Emphasising the importance with which DWA regards the ODMP, the survey for an urgently needed water supply reservoir in the east has been postponed in favour of the delta survey. Comprehensive recommendations have been prepared to improve the monitoring and provide a solid database comprising long term systematic data that capture the range of hydrologic events, and sequences of events. The data cover the key systems in the delta: climatic, surface and ground water, and sediment transport. DWA has a budget of BWP1,390,000 to implement the programme. While specialist assistance is required for the design and installation, the methods proposed can be carried out by DWA technical field staff, subject to a review of staff numbers and training needs.

Topographic Model The topographic or digital elevation model of the delta will provide the basic terrain information for the Integrated Hydrologic Model. Remote sensing data and analyses will be employed to create and validate information on the topography. The approach combines various data sources including radar altimetry, contour extraction from shorelines and vegetation maps. Landsat images provide the basic data, with a resolution of 30m; a large number of images has been provided by HOORC, as well as a vegetation map. It is anticipated that the vertical accuracy of the model will be better than ±1.0m.

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Existing Conditions in Delta The Integrated Hydrologic Model will be established using the widely used MIKE SHE – MIKE 11 modelling package, developed by DHI Water and Environment. The model will be set up to represent existing conditions in the delta, with the surface water inflow at Divundu/Mohembo and rainfall over the delta as its primary inputs. The basic model output will be the variation in surface and ground water levels throughout the delta. In addition to providing a comprehensive description of the present behaviour of the delta, this will also be used as a baseline against which to evaluate future developments. For this stage of development, the model will not include chemical and biological parameters.

ODMP Impact Analyses Given the Integrated Hydrologic Model set up and calibrated to represent existing conditions in the delta, the model may be applied to simulate scenarios for the ODMP. Among the scenarios will be upstream water resources developments, surface and ground water abstraction from the delta, clearing choked channels, dredging and regional climate changes. Intercomparisons will be made among the various model output parameters to assess the impact of potential developments. Flood extent and distribution, and ground water level and distribution will be main parameters. These may be related to the biodiversity and vegetation type, though this is seen as an area for research.

Capacity Building in DWA Training and technology transfer to the DWA Modelling Unit is essential for the sustainability of management planning in Botswana. This will be carried out on three fronts:

• Formal courses given by the international specialists in their respective specialities, assisted by the national experts

• On-the-job training to develop basic skills by DWA staff learning through doing – these is viewed as the key to the success of technology transfer

• Overseas training for DWA staff who have shown a particular aptitude for the modelling tasks

DWA has recently assigned four staff to the Modelling Unit, comprising senior and experienced hydrologists, complemented by junior staff bringing an ability to learn quickly and readily assimilate the new technology. To ensure successful on-the-job training, continuity of staffing and freedom from other responsibilities are essential. The staff should be assigned specific responsibilities within the unit. DWA is in the process of procuring computer hardware and software, the latter from DHI Water and Environment. A training needs assessment will be carried out for the assigned staff. The progress in assimilating the modelling technology will

Inception Report page S-3


be assessed periodically. Any need for a change of approach or emphasis will be identified, and corresponding recommendations made. The DWA Modelling Unit will be established with guidance and supervision from the international and national consultants. By the end of the Project, the national consultants will be able to provide long term support to the unit. A close technical association with the university and HOORC will be fostered to provide long term support from the academic side. This requires a budget for HOORC to acquire a university license for a copy of the modelling software.

Related Projects There are several related projects in the Okavango Delta, recently initiated: the UNDP/GEF Environmental Protection and Sustainable Management of the Okavango River Basin, the EU TwinBas basin twinning research project, the Leseding Project from the University of the Free State focussing on fish ecology and livelihood sustainability, the Tiger Participation project with the European Space Agency remotely monitoring the delta and feasibility studies for the Popa Falls hydropower project. The Project will cooperate fully with these projects, to enhance outputs and more closely realise the objectives of ODMP, and an integration of the management of the entire river basin.

Project Finances The components are financed jointly by the Governments of Botswana and Denmark. Danida funds are available for disbursement by the Consultants according to the planned cash flow. DWA has recently established the procedure for disbursement of government funds for the procurement of services and equipment for the Hydrology and Water Resources component.

Page S-4 Inception Report


1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background Hydrology and Water Resources comprises one of the ten components of the Okavango Delta Management Plan (ODMP), as shown in figure 1.1. The component is supported jointly by the Government of the Republic of Botswana, and the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark through Danida, alongside the Research and Data Management1 component.

The Danida support is shared between the two components, and is implemented by Scanagri Denmark A/S and its subconsultants. These are from Denmark DHI Water and Environment and Hedeselskabet, from South Africa CSIR, and from Botswana Liebenberg and Stander, and Engineering Hydrological and Environmental Services Pty Ltd. The contract with Danida was signed on 20th December 2002, and the two components commenced on 1st May 2003, with the arrival of the Team Leader in Gaborone. The two components have a planned duration of 39 months, to 1st August 2006.

This Inception Report focuses on the Hydrology and Water Resources component. A separate Inception Report is issued for the Research and Data Management component.

1.2 Organisation The Ministry of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism (MEWT) is the Executive Agency having overall national responsibility for the ODMP. The Implementing Agency is the National Conservation Strategy Agency (NCSA), under the MEWT.

The principal beneficiaries are NCSA and the Department of Water Affairs (DWA) of the Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources. A number of other organisations will also benefit from the project, in particular the Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre (HOORC) of the University of Botswana.

The organisation of the two components is shown in figure 1.2. The Consultants’ team comprises a long term Team Leader and international and national specialists each with a series of short term inputs in various fields including information technology, biology, water resources and remote sensing. The day to day management of the Component is carried out by the Team Leader, with a total input of 20 months over the 39 month project period. The Team Leader has additional responsibilities in respect of technical input to the Hydrology and Water Resources component.

The Team Leader is responsible for coordination with the Director of DWA, the Director of HOORC and through the Project Management Group, the Executive Secretary of NCSA. The schedule, outputs and activities of each stage of the specialists’ inputs are coordinated by the Team Leader, to whom the specialists are responsible.

1 This component has been referred to previously as Research, Data Management and Training. As

training is not an output from this component, but is a primary output from the Communications component, the title of component II is amended to Research and Data Management.

Inception Report page 1-1


Policy, planning and strategy (including communication) National Conservation Strategy Agency (NCSA): National and district level (District Development Committee and Okavango Wetland Management Committee; communication in collaboration with Tribal Administration)

Research, data management and training Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre (HOORC)

Hydrology and water resources Department of Water Affairs (DWA)

Wildlife management Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP)

Sustainable tourism Department of Tourism (DoT)

Fisheries and animal health Department of Animal Health and Production (DAHP)

Land use planning and land management Tawana Land Board (TLB) and District Land Use Planning Unit (DLUPU)

Local authority services provision North West District Council (NWDC)

Physical planning Department of Town and Regional Planning (DTRP)

Vegetation resources Department of Crop Production and Forestry (DCPF), in association with Agricult ural Resources Board (ARB)

Figure 1.1: ODMP Components

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

9.

10.

8.

7.

The Team Leader’s office is located in the DWA Headquarters in Gaborone. Here the DWA Modelling Unit has a large office. The unit is the focus of the establishment of the Integrated Hydrologic Model of the delta, and the capacity building in DWA to support the continued development and application of the model to the ODMP. Four DWA staff have recently been formally assigned to the unit, which shall shortly also be equipped with computer hardware and software.

page 1-2 Inception Report


Team Leader/hydrologist Deputy team leader/biodiversity

IT specialists

Biodiversity & other experts Surface water

Ground water

River morphologist

Water quality

Surface and ground water

Specialist back up

INT

INT

QA Team – Project Director – Project Monitor

INT/NAT INT/REG/NAT

INT

INT/NAT

INT/NAT

INT/NAT

INT/NAT

INT/REG/NAT

Scanagri in association with DHI, Hedeselskabet and CSIR

Figure 1.2: Consultants’ Team

To ensure the quality of the services rendered, the Consultants will deploy a Quality Assurance Team, reviewing procedures and all reports and technical documents. The Project implementation is supported by a Project Director and a Project Monitor, based in the Consultants’ headquarters in Denmark.

1.3 Inaugural Workshop and Steering Committee The two components were presented at the ODMP Inaugural Workshop held in Maun on 7th October 2003. The invitation to Danida was not received in time for the representative to attend the Workshop or the Committee Meeting.

An overview of the two components was presented by the Team Leader, followed by a more detailed presentation of the Hydrology and Water Resources component. The key topics covered the Activity Schedule, improved Monitoring, the DWA Modelling Unit, the Topographic and Hydrologic Model development, model outputs and management plan scenarios, and a summary of pertinent Project issues.

The first meeting of the ODMP Project Steering Committee (PSC) followed the Inaugural Workshop on 8th October 2003. The two key issues discussed of relevance to the components were changes to the Consultants’ contracted staff inputs to the Research and Data Management component (for details see the corresponding Inception Report) and an alternative approach to the Topographic Model (see section 4.5).



In both cases, the meeting decided to refer the matter to a meeting with Danida to be arranged the following week. In the event, both issues were resolved through further discussions convened by the PMG, without the need to involve Danida.

1.4 Technical Task Force As the ODMP Project Steering Committee (PSC) does not have the scope to look into matters of detail concerning individual components, it is proposed that Technical Task Forces are constituted for each of the two components. The Hydrology and Water Resources Force was constituted by DWA comprising a representative from each of NCSA, DWA, International Waters Unit (MMEWR), University of Botswana, HOORC and the private sector, with the Team Leader as observer. The Force held its first meeting on 26th November 2003.

The broad role of the Technical Task Forces is to monitor project progress and provide guidance on implementation. The proposed terms of reference are:

(1) Based on their technical expertise, consider and give positive, critical comment on the detailed technical aspects of the Hydrology and Water Resources component.

(2) Suggest changes and additions to the Hydrology and Water Resources component activities in order to facilitate delivery of the objectives of this component and the overall ODMP. Such suggestions will be passed to the Project Management Group (PMG) for approval.

(3) Suggest reallocations of funds within the existing agreed budget, for approval by the PMG, in order to achieve (2).

(4) Suggest changes to the total budget to fund additional or changed activities that will ensure better delivery of the objectives of this component and the overall ODMP. Such suggestions will be passed for consideration by the PMG and approval by the ODMP Project Steering Committee.

(5) Make detailed, technical and editorial comments on all reports produced as a part of the Hydrology and Water Resources component.

(6) The Task Force should also act as a conduit and link to all other components of the ODMP project. They should therefore also be involved in providing review and comment on any other component’s work with Hydrological or Water Resources implications.

The ODMP PSC will have final say in approving major changes to the components’ outputs, and approving reports, referring changes to the total budget, and reallocations greater than 20%, to the Government of Botswana and Danida.

1.5 Report Structure This Inception Report opens with an Executive Summary, followed by this introductory chapter. The following chapter 2 sets out the development and intermediate objectives of the component, the former essentially that of ODMP.

Chapter 3 describes the overall methodology adopted by the component to achieve the stated outputs. The component Activities, the progress on each to date and the planned future progress are described in chapter 4. Each set of activities leads to a



Working Paper. Chapter 5 describes the Inputs, provided and planned, from DWA and the Consultants, in terms of human resources, equipment and financial resources. Finally, chapter 6 summarises the key issues for the component, with recommended actions to address the issues.

The Logical Framework Assessment for the ODMP is presented in Annex A, and a list of the Working Papers with a brief description of the contents in Annex B.





2 OBJECTIVE AND OUTPUTS

2.1 Objective The development objective of the Okavango Delta Management Plan is integrated resource management for the Okavango Delta that will ensure its long term conservation, and that will provide benefits for the present and future well-being of the people, through sustainable use of its natural resources.

In line with the development objective, immediate objectives for the two Danida supported components are:

• A comprehensive, integrated management plan for the conservation and sustainable use of the Okavango Delta and surrounding areas

• Existing data, information and knowledge available in appropriate formats and a timely manner to support the development and initiated implementation of the Okavango Delta Management Plan

• Improved water resources planning, monitoring and evaluation in the Okavango Delta, based on an enhanced capacity of the Department of Water Affairs

The following section sets out the outputs leading to realisation of the foregoing objectives. The objectives and outputs are set out in the ODMP Logical Framework Assessment which is reproduced in Annex A with references to the report text, and remarks on adjustments to the outputs and activities.

2.2 Outputs The following are the planned outputs for the Research and Data Management component of ODMP:

(1) A data registration, storage and management system in HOORC.

(2) Baseline data on the traditional and current use of the natural resources of the delta available in appropriate formats and in a timely manner.

(3) A research strategy for HOORC, directing research activities over a 5 to 10 year period towards the sustainable management of the natural resources of the Okavango Delta.

(4) Results of research and analyses carried out by HOORC and other organisations published on a regular basis.

Two outputs which are not now part of the Danida supported component are: participatory planning which is supported by DED and HOORC’s own resources; and training coordination which will be carried out under the Communications component.

The following are the planned outputs for the Hydrology and Water Resources component of ODMP:

(1) A comprehensive quality controlled database comprising existing climatic, hydrologic, surface water, ground water and sediment data for the Okavango Delta.



(2) Recommendations on the improvement and expansion of the Okavango Delta monitoring network.

(3) A digital Topographic Model of the delta.

(4) An Integrated Hydrologic Model for the delta.

(5) The analyses of the impacts of water resources scenarios for the Okavango Delta Management Plan.

(6) Capability within DWA to maintain and operate the Integrated Hydrologic Model for the establishment and implementation of the ODMP.

Outputs omitted from the Danida supported component are water supply and waste management plans for the Okavango Delta. The Consultants will coordinate with the projects which are currently conducting or about to conduct planning exercises in these areas, including the National Water Master Plan and the National Sanitation and Wastewater Master Plan, and assess the impact of these plans on the surface and ground waters of the delta as scenarios for ODMP.

2.3 Quality Assurance The nature of the components demands a high level of intellectual activity from all team members and participants. Quality assurance will be applied to Project outputs both tangible, eg reports, and intangible, eg human resource development.

A Quality Assurance Plan (QAP) has been drafted to describe the procedures to be applied by all team members in order to ensure the quality of the services to be rendered, and to define the responsibility and authority of all key personnel within the organisation. The draft has been distributed for comments prior to finalisation.

While the responsibility for the implementation of the QAP rests with the Team Leader, it is also the responsibility of all team members and participants, who will be familiar with the Plan and comply with the procedures. Adherence to the quality procedures will be reviewed periodically by the Consultants’ Quality Assurance Team, and findings and recommendations will be reported. This four person Team has no involvement with the Project activities or inputs of the components.

While quality assurance will be applied to outputs, activities will be conducted in an atmosphere which encourages innovation and the informal exchange of ideas and information at all levels, to allow individual team members and participants to contribute to their full ability.



3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Okavango River Basin and Delta The Okavango River and Delta comprise a phenomenon virtually unique in the world. While there are other large rivers which have no ultimate outfall to the sea or ocean, all discharge to open water such as an inland lake, eg the rivers discharging to the Aral Sea. Although the delta may from some aspects appear as a large lake; the surface water flow paths through the delta are clear and distinct, and are described in geographical terms as rivers.

Upstream Catchment A map of the Okavango River Basin is shown in figure 3.1. The Okavango River has its principal origin in the Cubango River which rises in the central highlands of Angola. The annual rainfall is around 1,000mm, falling mainly in January to March. The river flows some 600km through narrow steep sided valleys before reaching the Kalahari sand zone just upstream of the border with Namibia. At this point the river becomes the Okavango, and flows eastwards some 400km through a wide valley.

Figure 3.1: Okavango River Basin



The one major tributary to the mainstream, the Cuito River, also rises in the Angolan highlands, and joins the Okavango near Katere along the border with Namibia. The lower reaches of the Cuito River have wide flood plains, and the flood wave is attenuated relative to that in the Cubango River. In Namibia, several tributaries enter the Okavango River, principal among which is the Omatako Omarumba. These are highly ephemeral, and contribute little flow to the main river.

Near Mukwe, the Okavango River turns south east crossing the Caprivi Strip for around 55km, entering Botswana near Mohembo. Upstream the channel is confined within a narrow valley, until it flows over the Popa Falls with a drop around four metres 25km upstream of Mohembo. Below the falls, the river enters a wide flood plain with grasses and reeds.

Hydrogeology The Okavango River and Delta lie within the Kalahari Basin, a great depression in the interior of southern Africa mainly filled with the wind-blown Kalahari Sands creating a sandstone formation. The delta is an alluvial fan overlying the Kalahari Sands, and forming an unconfined aquifer hundreds of metres deep. The downstream limit of the delta is demarcated by the Thamalakane Fault.

During the flood period from May to August and the rainfall period from December to February, the aquifer is charged with infiltrating water from the swamps and flood plains. The upstream part is more or less permanently saturated. Downstream there is an unsaturated zone with the water table increasing in depth largely owing to abstraction and diminished seasonal flooding. The middle reaches are a transition zone wetting and drying according to the season and the magnitude of the flood and rainfall.

Panhandle A map of the delta with key features is shown in figure 3.2. Popa Falls on the river in Namibia marks the upstream boundary of the Panhandle. The river is laterally confined by geological faults and sand ridges to a flood plain up to 15km wide. The plain has reeds and grasses, much of which is permanently submerged, and islands with mature trees. The river channel meanders across the flood plain, varying in width from around 50 to 100m wide, and 5 to 6m deep.

Corresponding to the upstream rainfall, the flood wave has a duration from January to June, with its peak around the end of March. There are several minor channels breaking off from the main channel through the reeds, running in parallel across the flood plain and rejoining the main channel downstream. The bed material is fine to medium sand, and the water is clear with a very low concentration of suspended sediments, even in flood.

At the downstream limit of the Panhandle, which is not clearly defined, between the towns of Sepupa on the right bank and Seronga on the left, the Okavango River starts to break up into its primary distributaries, marking the start of the delta.

Okavango Delta The upstream delta is characterised by the main Okavango River flowing through extensive papyrus swamps, bifurcating into distributary channels which convey the



flow on to extensive perennial flood plains. The transfer of flow between the river and flood plains is highly dynamic depending on the period of the flood from upstream, and the rainfall over the delta.

The primary distributaries are from west to east the Thaoge, which is dying owing to declining inflows, the Jao leading into the Boro which is in all but exceptional floods the sole path for surface water outflow from the delta, and the Maunachira leading into the Khwai, which appears to be gaining in importance, though in normal flood years has no outflow, ie the waters either evaporate or infiltrate.

Of the three main distributaries, the Thaoge River in the west terminates in a series of lagoons and extensive flood plains near its upstream end. The Boro River upstream flows through lagoons and flood plains; downstream it is a single confined channel, discharging to the Thamalakane. The Khwai River in the east has wide permanent flood plains along its entire length, and secondary distributaries, though with no outflow.


Figure 3.2: Okavango Delta

Okavango

JaoThaoge

Nqoga

Mboroga

Gomoti

Khwai

Xudum

Nhabe

Boro

Santan tadibe

Thamalakane

BotetiXudum

MAUN

GUMARE

ETSHA


The travel time of the flood wave through the delta is from four to five months, with the upstream peak occurring around the end of March, and the peak downstream around mid August.

Outflow The course of the Thamalakane River follows the Thamalakane Fault line which runs perpendicular to the delta and demarcates its downstream limit. The river flows south west, and functions as a collector drain for the distributaries from upstream. In recent years, the sole contributor has been the Boro River. At the flood peak the Thamalakane River has dried out and succumbed to evaporation and infiltration in the town of Maun.

In exceptional flood years, flow in the lower Boro bifurcates into the Xudum and other minor distributaries discharging to the Thamalakane. Flow in the eastern Maunachira River bifurcates into the Mboroga River and may also reach the Thamalakane. Subsequently, flow from the Thamalakane bifurcates downstream of Maun into the Boteti River, and from thence downstream to the Makgadikgadi Pans, and into the Nhabe River and downstream to Lake Ngami. This flow has not been observed since 1987.

3.2 Analysis of Existing Conditions The waters of the Okavango will be analysed for the Panhandle, the Delta and the Outflow. The principal means of analysis will be an Integrated Hydrologic Model, with its upstream boundary either at Divundu in Namibia or at Mohembo in Botswana, approximating to the upstream limit of the Panhandle.

The waters fall into three categories:

• Atmospheric water

• Surface water

• Ground water

There is close interaction among these categories, as illustrated in figure 3.3. The surface water flow into the delta at Divundu/Mohembo enters a virtually terminal system. This water disperses through the channels and on to the flood plains of the delta, and takes two routes: to the atmosphere by the process of evaporation, and to the ground water by the process of infiltration.

The hydrologic model must have a realistic representation of the physical phenomena governing the surface and ground water flow, and the interactive processes. This implies a physical base (in the fundamental laws of physics) and an explicit representation of the features, to the maximum extent practical.

The Integrated Hydrologic Model will be set up to represent existing conditions in the delta. Significant topographic and morphologic changes have occurred in the past, with the result that earlier data do not describe present conditions. The hydrologic and topographic data input to the model will be from recent years. The model will take as its primary boundary conditions the surface water inflow at Divundu or Mohembo, and the rainfall over the delta.

The model will be calibrated, comparing the observations at gauging stations within the model domain with the output. The model parameters will be adjusted such that



Figure 3.3: Flow Processes in Delta

the model is able to represent the surface and ground water flows for present conditions. In addition to providing a comprehensive description of the present behaviour of the delta, this will also be used as a baseline against which to evaluate future developments.

The basic model output will be the variation in the surface and ground water levels and flows in time and in space. Additional output parameters will be evapotranspiration, soil moisture, flood extent and sediment transport. The results will provide a realistic estimate of the water balance of the delta.

While the software has the capability to model chemical and biological parameters, this is not within the present scope of the component.

Model Limitations The Integrated Hydrologic Model for application to ODMP represents the state-of-the-art in modelling technology. It does have limitations in respect of its ability to represent certain phenomena influencing the development of the delta:

• The level of detail and accuracy will be limited, not by the technology, but by the data and time available for its development. If improved data are available, these may be incorporated in the model, and overall improvements in the outputs achieved.

• The model will not simulate the formation of new channels, and the realignment of existing channels. This requires a two dimensional model (in plan), and is only appropriate for application to particular river reaches.



• The model does not include biological functions. It will not be capable of predicting the closure of existing channels by encroaching vegetation, or the formation of new channels initiated by hippopotami. Neither can the model represent the accumulation of peat through decaying vegetation, nor the start of peat fires and their subsequent impact on the land form.

• While the software has the capability to simulate the transport of salt through the surface and ground waters, this is beyond the scope of the present phase. The emergence and subsequent disappearance of salt islands cannot be simulated.

These and other phenomena have been and continue to be the subject of research studies. Given detailed data collection from specific sites, more detailed local models can be established. While these models may not be capable of simulating the phenomena in their entirety, the model can provide essential boundary conditions for further detailed investigations.

3.3 ODMP Impact Analysis Given the Integrated Hydrologic Model set up and calibrated to represent existing conditions in the delta, the model may now be applied to simulate scenarios for the Okavango Delta Management Plan. Among the scenarios will be:

• Upstream water resources developments: dams, irrigation, water supply in Angola and Namibia

• Surface and ground water abstraction from the delta area

• Clearing choked channels by cutting reeds, and cutting and dredging new channels

• Regional climate changes

The scenarios do not necessarily represent recommended developments in the basin and delta. The scenarios are simulated in the first instance to determine their potential beneficial and adverse impacts.

For the upstream developments, the inflow hydrograph at Divundu or Mohembo will be amended to represent the impact. For example a hydropower development will have the effect of lowering the peak flow and increasing low flows, with changes to the corresponding sediment transport in terms of timing and particle sizes.

Surface and ground water abstractions from the delta will be represented as time series of withdrawals from specific locations. Choked channels will be represented by a reduction in the channel cross section, and greatly increased flow resistance. New channels can be inserted along particular alignments.

The impact of regional climate changes can be represented by changing the rainfall and other climatic parameters over the delta, and changes to the upstream inflow hydrographs.

The development scenarios can be organised in various combinations, though it is recommended to limit the number, simply to be able to manage and evaluate the huge volume of data which is output by the model.



Thus intercomparisons can be made among the various model output parameters to assess the impact of management plan scenarios. The flood distribution and extent, and ground water distribution will be the main parameters to compare. Other key indicators such as soil moisture may be suggested by other aspects of the management plan. These may be related to the biodiversity and vegetation type, which may be more meaningful for interpretation, though the relationships will be the subject of research and development.

3.4 Capacity Building in DWA The approach to training and technology transfer will be carried out on three fronts:

(1) Formal courses given in the Modelling Unit by the international experts in their respective specialities, assisted by the national experts. This will provide the DWA staff with the basic theory and practical skills to enable their full participation in the model development and application.

(2) On-the-job training to develop the basic skills in the context of learning through doing. The DWA staff will be closely involved throughout in all activities, including data collection and processing, model set up and calibration, model application to development scenarios and evaluation of results.

(3) Overseas training for DWA staff who have shown a particular aptitude for the tasks, and honed their skills to a high degree through close involvement with the project activities.

Staff Selection Four staff for the Modelling Unit have been assigned by DWA comprising a senior hydrologist-engineer and a hydrogeologist, and two recent graduates who have shown promise and enthusiasm to acquire the new modelling skills. The two categories will complement each other: the senior staff providing knowledge and experience of the hydrology and hydraulics of Botswana and the delta; and the junior staff bringing an ability to learn quickly and adapt readily to the new technology and tasks.

The senior staff have been freed from other responsibilities within DWA, to devote substantial and sufficient time to the work of the Modelling Unit such that they are fully involved in the work, and in the longer term can carry out the operations independently. The individual staff should be assigned specific responsibilities, along the lines proposed in the working paper on Capacity Building in DWA.

Needs Assessment Following the assignment of the staff for the Modelling Unit, a training needs assessment will be carried out. This will be conducted by the management of the Hydrology Division and the Team Leader, who will jointly interview the proposed staff and assess their present experience and that required for the Modelling Unit. The formal training programme will be tailored accordingly, within the scope of the available resources, to bring the staff to the level required for the exacting tasks.



Progress Monitoring The progress of the staff of the Modelling Unit in assimilating the data management and modelling technology will be assessed periodically by the managers of the Hydrology Division and the Team Leader. Any need for a change in emphasis or direction, or additional resources will be identified, and corresponding recommendations made.

External Support The DWA Modelling Unit will be established in the context of the present component, and in addition to the guidance and supervision from the international consultants, will have the support of national consultants. A close association with the university and HOORC will also be developed to provide support on the academic front.

The national consultants will be actively involved in setting up the Integrated Hydrologic Model, and at the end of the Project they will be well placed to offer prompt support in case any particular problem arises which the DWA staff are unable to handle, or to supplement the capacity should there be temporary or even longer term staff shortages.

HOORC research staff already have considerable expertise in hydrologic modelling, and should be involved closely in the activities of the modelling unit. They may also provide support to the longer term activities of the modelling unit.

The hydrologic software which will be employed for the delta model has general and widespread applicability, and is under continual development at DHI. For the duration of the component, DHI will provide “hotline” support and upgrades. Thereafter, support is available at an additional cost.

The sustainability of the Modelling Unit will be enhanced if it is seen as functioning in the wider context of firstly the Botswana and secondly the international water and engineering fields. As the need arises, support should be taken from the national consultants, the university and HOORC, and DHI. Staff of the Modelling Unit should be encouraged to present their work firstly in the arena of the ODMP, then to national engineering organisations, and finally to regional and international organisations, in cooperation with university researchers and national consultants.



4 ACTIVITIES

4.1 Introduction The activities leading to the achievement of the component outputs are described in detail in the following sections, with comments on the progress to date. The Activity Schedule is presented in figure 4.1. The activities are also set out with respect to the ODMP Logical Framework Assessment, reproduced in Annex A with references to the report text and remarks on adjustments to the indicated activities.

The Activity Schedule covers the period up to 1st May 2005, when the Team Leader’s long term input is fulfilled. In this period, the activities on the component should be substantially completed. Thereafter, the staff of the DWA Modelling Unit will be applying the Hydrologic Model to the further analysis of scenarios for the management plan largely independently, supported by short term inputs from the national and international modelling specialists.

The Consultants have made four field trips to the delta, accompanied by DWA staff. The first was a reconnaissance visit including Mohembo in May, the second a boat trip through the upper delta, travelling through the three main channels downstream till blockage prevented further access. The Team Leader made a visit to Popa Falls and Mukwe/Divundu Gauging Stations in Namibia to inspect the site of the proposed hydropower plant, and the possible upstream boundary for the Hydrologic Model.

The third field trip comprised a visit to Moremi Wildlife Reserve, travelling up the Maunachira till the Peter Smith Channel blockage (seen from upstream in the last trip), downstream on the Khwai and across to Mboma Island. The trip concluded with a three hour low altitude overflight of virtually the entire delta to gain an overall impression of the complex hydraulic system and vegetation. A short fourth trip to Xaxaba included Moumo DCP, but was curtailed owing to vehicle breakdown and fuel supply problems.

DWA regional staff from the Gumare and Maun offices provided invaluable assistance in the form of extensive knowledge of the delta and logistic support.

4.2 Data Collection and Processing Draft Working Papers have been distributed presenting the collection and compilation of the physical land based data to set up the Integrated Hydrologic Model of the Okavango Delta. An evaluation is made of the available data in terms of quantity and quality, and the procedures to collect and manage the data. Initial recommendations are made to improve the management procedures, and to expand the collection networks. These recommendations are followed up in a working paper on Recommendations for Improved Monitoring of the delta. There is a wide range of categories of physical data describing the phenomena which control the behaviour of the delta. These comprise time series data: climatic, hydrometric, hydrogeologic, sediment transport, water quality, surface and ground water abstraction; and relatively stationary data: topography, channel cross sections, soil and river channel material types. Corresponding to the variety of data categories, the sources of data are also numerous. Primary among these are: the DWA, DGS, DMS and research reports.



Figure 4.1: Hydrology and Water Resources Schedule


PRIMARY SECONDARY

1 Data Collection and Processing1.1 Collect Available Data FS IM

1.2 Process Available Data FS IM

1.3 Evaluate Available Data FS IM

2 Monitoring Programme2.1 Climatic Data OS FS milestone with no of Work

2.2 Surface Water Data OS FS

2.3 Ground Water OS FS, IM

2.4 Pollution SD FS

2.5 Implement Programme DWA

3 DWA Modelling Unit3.1 Specify Computer Equipment JAM

3.2 Procure Computer Equipment DWA

3.3 Appoint Staff to Modelling Unit DWA

3.4 Assess Training Needs JAM DWA

3.5 Presentation on Modelling Concept JAM

3.6 Staff Training in DWA3.6.1 Hydrology Modelling TVJ FS3.6.2 Surface Water Modelling JAM FS3.6.3 Ground Water Modelling PBH IM

3.7 Overseas Training JAM

4 Remote Sensing4.1 Collect Available Information MKS

4.2 Assess Available Information MKS

4.3 Set Out Project Methodology MKS

4.4 Select and Order Additional Data MKS

4.5 Preliminary Classification MKS

4.6 Preliminary Delta Topography MKS

4.7 Final Classification MKS

4.8 Working Topographic Model MKS

4.9 Interaction with Hydrologic Model MKS

4.10 Final Topographic Model MKS

2003 2004Sep Oct NovMay Jun Jul AugJan Feb Mar AprSep Oct Nov DecMay Jun Jul AugACTIVITY RESPONSIBILITY

TVJ, PBH, HGE

4

5

1

3

9

6

8

2

5 king Paper

2005Jan Feb Mar AprDec

14


Figure 4.1: Hydrology and Water Resources Schedule (cont)

5 Sediment Transport and Geology5.1 Research Sources MJM

5.2 Collect and Evaluate Data MJM

5.3 Delta Geology and Morphology MJM

6 Integrated Hydrological Model6.1 SVAT TVJ FS

6.2 Rainfall-Runoff Model TVJ JAM, FS

6.3 Surface Water Model JAM FS

6.4 Sediment Transport Model HGE MJM

6.5 Ground Water Model PBH TVJ, IM

6.6 Integrated Model TVJ IM

7 Model Applications7.1 Prepare Scenarios JAM FS, IM

7.2 Preliminary Scenario Applications7.2.1 Water Supply JAM PBH, FS, IM7.2.2 Dredging JAM FS7.2.3 Reed Cutting JAM FS7.2.4 U/S Water Resources JAM FS7.2.5 Climate Change TVJ FS

7.3 Presentation of Model and Results JAM

7.4 Refine Model and Scenarios JAM

8 Reporting8.1 Inception JAM BS

8.2 Progress JAM BS

8.3 Final Report JAM BS

Aug Sep Oct NovApr May Jun JulDec Jan Feb MarMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

TVJ, PBH, HE, FS, IMTVJ, PBH, HE, FS, IM

10

11

7

AprDec Jan Feb Mar

12

13

2003 2004 2005



These data of different types and from different sources will comprise the input to the integrated mathematical model of the delta. As such, they must be accurate and consistent among themselves: the rainfall with the surface water level, the surface water level with the ground water level, the surface water level with the cross section, the discharge with the sediment transport, etc.

Prior to input to the mathematical model, these data are evaluated using a systematic series of checks and cross checks. The model itself integrates the data, and invalid results will highlight inconsistencies among the input data sets. Not all errors will be indicated by the model and, to ensure redundancy in the data analysis, a thorough evaluation is conducted prior to use in the model.

The mathematical model will be set up initially to represent current conditions in the delta, with respect to channel alignment and flood plain topography. As the delta experiences long term morphological changes, the time series database focuses on the last five hydrologic years. Data sets covering earlier periods of specific interest are also identified, compiled and evaluated.

Hydrologic Data The existing DWA hydrologic network in the delta is extensive, though the quality of the data collected is low. The distribution of the water level gauging stations is shown in figure 4.3. The primary problem is access: tracks run through deep sand in the dry period, and soft mud in the rainy season; channels become blocked by vegetation; wild animals pose a danger to gauging staff and damage gauging installations. Among the recommendations arising from the report are:

• The water level gauge board elevations must be related to each other, and preferably to the national datum. This is presently being undertaken by the Department of Surveys and Mapping (DSM) using high accuracy GPS.

• Data measurement and storage should be followed by routine processing including quality controls – interpolation in the database is meaningless and unnecessary

• A special study should be conducted to quantify the flow bypassing the key gauging station at Mohembo; if river cross section data are available upstream, the upstream boundary should be taken at Divundu where the total Okavango flow can be gauged

• A review of DWA regional hydrology staffing should be conducted for adequacy of staff numbers, training needs and supervision by senior officers

• The DWA automatic data collection platforms (DCPs) should be rehabilitated, their operation and maintenance brought into the routine procedures, and formal arrangements made for reception of the data in DWA

DWA has shown a strong commitment to ODMP and monitoring the Okavango Delta in giving priority to a high accuracy GPS survey of the bench marks attached to the gauge boards and DCPs. The work was carried out by DSM in November and December 2003, with logistic support provided by DWA. This was a major



Figure 4.3: Distribution of Water Level Gauges in Delta

undertaking involving more than 30 staff in seven teams, with an intensive work programme . It demonstrates the solid cooperation between DWA and DSM.

The survey will establish the water levels in absolute terms, relative to mean sea level, and enable relationships to be made among the stations’ water level records, which could previously only show the range, including with the gauging stations on the river upstream in Namibia.

Hydrogeologic Data Ground water monitoring in and around the delta is limited, conducted only by major development projects around Maun. The distribution of boreholes in the delta is shown in figure 4.4. There are major gaps in this programme. The boreholes are not accurately located in plan, and not related to a common level datum. The principal holders of data, DWA and the Department of Geological Surveys (DGS), use different ground water databases with different data stored in different formats.

The following are the primary recommendations to bring the data collection to the standard required by the management plan:




Figure 4.4: Distribution of Boreholes in and around Delta


• Ground water monitoring needs to be extended throughout the delta to capture the natural movements, and the impact of abstraction – the distribution should cover the different aquifer systems

• The monitoring boreholes should be accurately located in plan, and levelled to the national datum

• Available data should be entered into a common database for further processing and analysis, enabling the setup of a conceptual ground water model of the delta

• Responsibility for overall ground water monitoring in the delta should be vested in a single organisation, with established procedures for data collection, processing and analysis

Sediment Transport It appears that there is no sediment transport data available with organisations in Botswana on the Okavango Delta. International sources will be researched, primary among which will be the extensive research work conducted by the Okavango Research Group of Witwatersrand University. Data are being collected by NamPower Namibia in connection with feasibility studies of the proposed hydropower plant at Popa Falls, also involving the university group.

Among the data anticipated to be available are:

(1) cross sections of the rivers and flood plains or swamp areas

(2) data on suspended sediment rates, concentrations and particle size

(3) particle sizes of bed and flood plain material

The data will in general have been collected on campaigns for specific research purposes using sophisticated techniques under specialist guidance. Although they will not comprise a long term systematic data set, considerable use can nonetheless be made of these data.

4.3 Monitoring Programme Basic information on the hydrology of the Okavango Delta is essential for the management plan in order to understand the processes at work in shaping the delta. The previous section 4.2 summarises the working papers which describe the data availability, and evaluate their reliability and relevance to the management planning. These papers have provided the bases for a third working paper presenting recommendations for improved and expanded monitoring in the delta.

The objective of the monitoring programme is the provision of a solid database representing the behaviour of the key processes at work in the delta: climatic, water flows and sediment transport. The principle is to provide long term systematic data, that capture the range of flood and drought events, and sequences of these events, in time and in space. The methods of data collection should be such that they can be implemented by DWA technical field staff.

Considerable effort has been expended over many years on intensive monitoring of the Okavango Delta, with respect to climatic and surface water. Many lessons have been learnt, primary among which are the difficulties in accessing many sites, and



disturbance of the stations by wild animals and theft by humans. While no installation can be totally secure, and with a high level of maintenance operating costs will be high, improvements can be made to the installations and procedures.

Climatic Data There are a number of climatic stations in and around the delta, operated by five different organisations: DMS, DWA, ARB, HOORC and tourist lodges. These should be brought under common management, and the data shared. Recommendations to expand the network have been made independently by the Consultants and HOORC. These may be integrated into a common proposal. In order to complement the analysis of spatial distribution of the rainfall, remote sensing sources are being investigated.

Within the delta, DWA has eight data collection platforms (DCPs) automatically sensing rainfall and water level, and transmitting the data by satellite to the Department of Meteorological Services (DMS) in Gaborone. Two of the stations also measure climatic parameters. The DCPs have not been maintained and, compounded by the year 2000 data storage problem, have fallen into disrepair. None of the stations is presently operational.

The DCPs represent a major investment in monitoring the delta, and should be rehabilitated as a top priority. DWA has the capability to operate and maintain the stations in the long term, though this is presently vested in one staff member only, and needs to be more widely disseminated. The data received at DMS should be transmitted directly to DWA. The data reception should be regularly monitored such that problems are detected early, and procedures to rectify are promptly initiated.

Hydrometric Data There is a dense network of some 70 water level gauges in the delta. Most are simple gauge boards fixed to an angle iron driven into the river bed, normally read monthly. A small number has automatic float type gauges with continuous chart recorders running for one month or more. The stations are frequently disturbed by wild animals. Discharge is measured monthly with a current meter from a boat at around 30 of the stations.

The number and distribution of the stations are adequate for the management plan. The following recommendations are made:

• Install a new system of around ten automatic water level recorders, recording hourly with a data storage capacity up to one year and battery power for five years. Data are retrieved by simply removing and replacing the data logger.

• The discharge equipment presently employed is well suited to the task. The availability of instruments and procedures for calibration and maintenance should be checked, and spare parts carried to the field by the gauging staff as a routine.



• The gauging staff from the Gumare and Maun offices should be provided with a computer with appropriate software, and instructed to calculate the discharge and plot the discharge and water levels immediately they return to the office. The staff will have a greater involvement and sense of responsibility for the process, errors and other problems can be spotted early, and remedial action taken.

• Sediment transport should be monitored at the key inflow station at Mohembo. This should be done by taking water samples analysed for suspended sediment concentration in conjunction with the discharge measurements. The concentration is known to be low, but is nonetheless important.

• The major part of sediment transport is bed load. Samples of the bed material should be analysed for their particle size distribution. Measurement of bed load transport is difficult: appropriate methods for systematic measurement at Mohembo should be investigated.

Water Quality No systematic water quality monitoring of the surface waters of the delta has been carried out to date. Some data, limited in time and space, have been obtained for specific projects and research studies. A proposed study by DWA (Okavango and Chobe Pollution Study, for which an inception report has been prepared but no copies are available) plans a comprehensive survey in the vicinity of lodges and camps. This study does not consider the natural background water quality, and is unlikely to yield meaningful results. It should be redesigned.

The quality of the water entering the delta is a determining factor for the quality of both the surface and ground waters of the delta. A long term systematic programme should be initiated for the basic chemical parameters, in conjunction with the discharge measuring programme at Mohembo. Biological monitoring is not recommended at present. Pollution pressures are virtually absent and there is a need to focus on essential measurements which yield meaningful results.

The water quality laboratory in DWA needs to be upgraded to carry out the full range of analyses. The facilities at HOORC may be employed in the meantime.

Ground Water It is essential to have knowledge of the ground water levels throughout the delta to analyse the infiltration and movement. There are at present over 1,000 boreholes in and around the delta. The large majority is in the southern area around Maun and along the western margin. Present monitoring is conducted through the impact of abstraction. There are virtually no boreholes within the delta. It order to optimise the information gathered and the cost of the programme, an imaginative and varied approach is proposed, corresponding to the varied hydrogeology of the delta.

Along the Thamalakane valley at the downstream boundary of the delta, the present monitoring is adequate, though it has suffered wilful damage and reinstatement with greater security is required. Consideration should also be given to a more widespread distribution of the monitoring sites, and continuity of existing long data series.



Monitoring in the downstream delta has to distinguish three ground water aquifers: a shallow upper unconfined aquifer, a lower semi-confined aquifer and a deeper brackish underlying aquifer. This can be achieved with a nested system of three pipes each sampling a different level.

Along the western margin, a regular monitoring programme is proposed, with a small number of new boreholes with automatic recorders to cover gaps. There are very few boreholes on the northern margin. To completely encircle the delta, around eight new boreholes should be drilled for monitoring.

Within the delta, along the boundary between the permanent and seasonal flooding, it is proposed that small individual catchments corresponding to different terrain types are identified, and monitored for the total water balance. The catchments would have a raingauge, weirs upstream and downstream to measure surface water flow, and piezometers around the perimeter. HOORC has set up one such catchment adjacent to Chief’s Island.

In the upper reaches of the wide valleys in the south west of the delta (eg the Xudum) the ground water level has been dropping in recent years owing to limited seasonal flooding. It is proposed that one longitudinal profile is monitored with piezometers or small boreholes drilled using a lightweight rig. In the lower reaches (eg the Kunyere), ground water levels have dropped alarmingly. It is proposed that two sections across the valley each with three boreholes are monitored.

Implementation The recommendations made in the working paper constitute an outline of the required monitoring programme. The activities leading to full implementation are as follows:

(1) Acceptance in principle of the recommendations by DWA and NCSA.

(2) Distribution of the recommendations to DWA divisions for comments, and assistance in implementation.

(3) Mobilisation of national and international consultants to provide further details and technical specifications, including outline designs for site installations sufficient for the preparation of tender documents.

(4) The climatic and hydrometric programmes are relatively well defined in the Working Paper. Ground water monitoring requires further investigations of existing data and field reconnaissance.

(5) Assessment of the required DWA staff resources and training, and data management.

(6) Preparation of a programme for long term operation and maintenance of the gauging stations, and an estimate of the annual cost of the programme.

Since further investigations are required particularly for the ground water programme, as well as detailed design of the installations, the cost of implementation can only be estimated at this stage. The estimate for climatic and hydrometric equipment is USD100,000, and for ground water including drilling a similar amount of USD100,000. Detailed specifications and designs are beyond the scope of the Consultants’ activities, and these costs will be additional.



4.4 DWA Modelling Unit A Modelling Unit has been established in DWA to set up an Integrated Hydrologic Model of the Okavango Delta, and apply the model to a range of scenarios for the management plan. A large office in DWA has been assigned to the unit. The unit requires computer hardware and software, office equipment and furniture (see section 5, Inputs).

Four staff have been assigned to the unit:

Ontlogetse Dikgomo has a BSc in Civil Engineering from the South Bank University, London (1998), and has been employed in DWA since 1991. His work experience includes hydrologic and topographic techniques to define the course of the Linyanti River between Botswana and Namibia, and various water resources development studies.

Benjamin Mafa has a BSC in Geology from the University of Botswana and an MSc in Hydrochemistry from Germany. He has been employed in the Department of Geological Surveys for the past five years, and has taken a course in advanced mathematical modelling.

Ditiro Benson Moalafhi graduated with a BSc specialising in Hydrology and Climatology from the University of Botswana in 2000. He is currently completing an MPh in catchment modelling, with parallel work experience in flow studies on the Limpopo and other rivers in Botswana.

Kobamelo Dikgola graduated with a BSc in Environmental Science, specialising in Hydrology and Mathematics, in 2003.

In addition, GIS and computer systems assistance will be available on a part time basis from the IT Division of DWA.

The staff should be assigned specific responsibilities in the unit, along the lines proposed in the working paper on Capacity Building in DWA. In order to improve sustainability in the long term, and cover for individual staff who are absent for a short or longer period, each staff member should be acquainted with the tasks and responsibilities of the other members, and be capable of carrying out their tasks.

The new staff structure for DWA has recently been approved by the ministry. The Modelling Unit is institutionalised under the National Water Master Plan, now entering its ninth phase. This should ensure a long term commitment to the Modelling Unit, increasing the range of application of the acquired skills, and offering continuing opportunities for staff development and long term sustainability.

A Working Paper on Capacity Building in DWA has been distributed. This sets out the staffing requirements (a Manager, two engineer hydrologists, an engineer hydrogeologist, a data manager and a systems engineer), training needs, the computer hardware (five personal computers and peripherals) and the computer software (three MIKE SHE – MIKE 11 – ArcView systems).

Training Discussions will be held to assess the training needs of the DWA staff assigned to the Modelling Unit. These will comprise both formal and on-the-job training. The formal training is planned to entail courses of three days duration in four topics:



Hydrology Modelling, Surface Water Modelling, Ground Water Modelling and Sediment Transport Modelling. The formal courses will be given by each of the international modelling specialists during their first inputs, and will comprise both theory and practical sessions.

The formal courses will be backed up by on-the-job training. This is the key to successful technology transfer, whereby the participants learn by doing, functioning as a team with the focus on practical application. The DWA staff will work alongside the national and international and specialists, and actively participate in all the tasks leading to the establishment and application of the Hydrologic Model. In this context, it is essential that the staff assigned to the unit are free from other responsibilities, and can devote their full energies to the work of the unit.

The Topographic Model (see section 4.5) will be the basis of the Integrated Hydrologic Model. Training may be extended to include topographic modelling. This is discussed in section 4.5 below.

Following the completion of the formal and on-the-job training programme, the staff capabilities will be assessed with the respect to the need for DWA to continue hydrologic and water resources analyses for ODMP, beyond the end of the present planning phase. Recommendations will be made on further staff development, which will include overseas training. A proposal to train four modelling engineers at DHI’s headquarters in Denmark is included in the Capacity Building at DWA report. An alternative would be to support post graduate study at a university or international institute specialising in hydrologic modelling.

4.5 Topographic Model The Topographic or Digital Elevation Model (DEM) provides the basic terrain for the Integrated Hydrologic Model of the delta. Remote sensing data will be used to create and validate information on the topography. In the Okavango Delta, a Digital Elevation Model will be created using a number of techniques. The approach integrates various data sources in order to be able to cross check the results:

• Combine different methods for different environments, using time series of satellite imagery and hydrologic information to assess the water volume

• Use new datasets providing the digital elevation of the delta: high resolution aerial survey combining radar altimetry and differential GPS, and new Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data

• Cross check and identify convergence and divergence between data sources and different methods, focussing on areas of divergence.

The identification of methods and data sets has been carried out during the inception phase, with the collection of additional knowledge and ancillary data. The following data sets have been identified and collected, and the different remote sensing approaches are described briefly:

(1) Radar altimetry: a high resolution aerial survey performed by the Department of Geological Surveys using radar altimetry and differential GPS will be used for the general elevation and where possible also in the flood plains.



(2) Contour extraction: will be applied to remote sensing data to map changes in the shorelines at different times. In areas with seasonally flooded swamps the changing water level and the extent of flooding indicate the elevation and topography. Using water level time series, the topographical model will reflect the dynamics of the delta hydraulics.

(3) Vegetation mapping: multispectral remote sensing data will be used to map the terrestrial and aquatic vegetation dynamics, and thus distinguish between the water body and dry land. There is a documented relationship between the type of vegetation and the annual variation in water level: local expert knowledge will give information on water depths in the vegetated areas. This will provide knowledge of the topography and hydrology.

(4) Interferometric data on elevation from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) will be used for further validation in comparisons with the radar altimetry on the fringes of the delta. It is not sufficiently accurate to extract information on the small scale topography in the delta, but still valid as an additional means to cross check different sources.

(5) Stratification by water levels: time series of satellite images will be used to identify areas stable in terms of water distribution, and areas that change from season to season or from year to year. This information will be employed to stratify the delta and identify more important areas in terms of water distribution.

(6) Deep and shallow waters: the relative difference in the reflection of blue, green and red light from the water body will be used to assess the depth to 5 metres with an accuracy of ±20 %. This will applied to open water bodies which are clear and free of vegetation.

(7) Detailed studies: a set of orthophotographs from 2001/02 is currently being produced by the Department of Surveys and Mapping. This information will be used for reference purposes. High resolution Ikonos or QuickBird satellite data with a spatial resolution down to 0.6 metre will enable more detailed analysis of selected areas.

(8) Cross checks: in many areas, cross checks among the aerial survey data, contour extraction and the SRTM data set will be performed to ensure a high quality output. Bench marks established by the Department of Surveys and Mapping will also be used to check the datasets.

(9) Bench Marks: a series of several hundred bench marks set out by DSM in 1974 along roads around the delta and traverses into the delta will be used primarily to verify the accuracy of the model.

The Landsat data to be used has a spatial resolution of 30 metres and 6 spectral bands in the visual and near infrared parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. In addition a panchromatic band (black and white image) with 15 metre spatial resolution is available on Landsat ETM+ from 1999 and onwards. A large number of Landsat scenes since 1979 has been obtained mainly from HOORC for the Okavango Delta, enabling both historical and seasonal analyses. One Landsat image covers 185km by 185km and is a very cost effective data source. A Landsat scene covering a part of the area is shown in figure 4.5.



Figure 4.5: Landsat Image of part of Delta

The creation of the Topographic Model or digital elevation model (DEM) of the Okavango Delta is a complex task demanding a high level of technical and professional skills. The model is being set up in the office of GRAS (the responsible subconsultant) in Denmark, where there is the necessary IT environment for the task. The main activities will be completed by February 2004.

Training The Topographic Model will be the basis of the hydrologic model. While training in topographic modelling is not part of the Consultants’ contract, it is a recognised need. The Consultants will provide the staff of the DWA Modelling Unit training in the development and application of the Topographic Model, in order that they understand how it has been developed, and how it should be applied.

Further training can be given, in the form of on-the-job training and an extended formal course, to the extent that the DWA staff are able to apply the techniques to other areas. The Consultants have proposed options which are currently being considered by DWA. In evaluating the options for extended training, the following should be considered:

• The modest goal to inform the DWA staff of the process to develop the model, and to apply the model to the analysis of scenarios for ODMP, can be achieved within the scope of the present project.



• A more ambitious goal would be to enable the DWA staff to update and refine the Topographic Model, and to apply the techniques to set up topographic models of other areas. Additional resources will be required, and it will take time to apply for and receive these resources.

• Unlike the development of the Integrated Hydrologic Model, the method to establish the Topographic Model is appropriate for the delta, but it does not represent a general approach that can be applied to other areas.

• High demands will be placed on the staff of the DWA Modelling Unit to acquire the skills required to develop and apply the Integrated Hydrologic Model in the longer term once the Consultants have completed their tasks. Extended training in Topographic modelling will stretch these demands further.

Alternative Approach An alternative approach to the development of the Topographic Model was put forward by the Project Management Group, utilising an existing model developed by Dr Thomas Gumbricht. After lengthy discussion, this was finally rejected by NCSA and DWA on contractual, technical and practical grounds:

• The Consultants’ contracted approach is well integrated with their overall methodology, specifically for the Integrated Hydrologic Model. The alternative approach could disrupt this.

• The alternative model is based on an earlier coarse model, but is not documented

• Important information and methods which will be used by the Consultants, particularly radar based, have not been utilised in the alternative model

• Dr Gumbricht was not available for a short term consultancy which might support the development of the Consultants’ Topographic Model

4.6 Integrated Hydrologic Model The availability of surface and ground water in the delta is central to the management plan for the Okavango Delta. The assessment of the water resources of the delta will be based on the application of a physically based Integrated Hydrologic Model for the delta.

A number of hydrologic models of the delta has been developed for various purposes over the years. The primary limitations of these models are:

• A conceptual cellular approach to the surface water

• A conceptual single layer approach to the ground water

Conceptual implies that the mathematical representation in the model is based on a concept or abstract idea of the how the system performs. The alternative is physically based, in which the model representation is based on physical laws



describing the phenomena. In the conceptual approach, phenomena are implicit, whereas with the physically based approach the phenomena are explicit.

As an example, the conceptual approach describes the combined river and flood plain in a cell; the physically based approach separates the river and the flood plain, explicitly. Thus a blockage in the river channel can be represented explicitly in the physically based model, and the correspondingly increased water levels and flood plain flow computed, explicitly. In the conceptual approach, assumptions have to be made regarding the impact of the blockage on the lumped river and flood plain. Only the physically based approach is adequate to simulate the range of scenarios required for the management plan.

The Integrated Hydrologic Model for the ODMP will be developed using the MIKE SHE – MIKE 11 modelling package, which has been developed by DHI Water and Environment. The systems have a continuous development history stretching over thirty years, and are used by over 1,000 organisations worldwide on innumerable water resources and flood management applications, including the recent Florida Everglades Restoration, which has many similarities to the Okavango Delta planning activities. The system is integrated with ArcView GIS for the preparation of topographic input data and the presentation of results. A schematic representation of the model is shown in figure 4.6.

Figure 4.6: Schematic Representation of MIKE SHE Model



The model will integrate four components:

• Soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) module to describe the temporal and spatial distribution of the loss of water to the atmosphere, from open water, swamp and land based vegetation

• Surface water module (MIKE 11) based on a quasi two dimensional hydrodynamic representation of the river channels and flood plains of the delta to describe the water levels and flows through the delta

• Sediment transport module (MIKE 11) to simulate the transport of sediment as bed load throughout the delta

• The ground water module (MIKE SHE) is a three dimensional representation of the unsaturated and saturated zones

MIKE 11 is an integral part of MIKE SHE. The exchange of water between channels and flood plains is modelled as spill over and breaches through channel banks, infiltration and exfiltration through the river bed and the flood plain ground level. MIKE SHE also incorporates rainfall interception, evapotranspiration and overland flow. All processes operate spatially at time steps consistent with their spatial and temporal scales.

The outputs from the model cover the entire surface and ground water system, and include water levels, discharges and velocities, inundated areas, evaporation, soil moisture and sediment transport rates, deposition and erosion. Water balance data are derived from the results, providing inflows, outflows, storage, extent of flooding, distributed in time and space.

The domain of the model will cover the Panhandle, the delta, the Thamalakane River, Lake Ngami and the upstream reach of the Boteti River, an area around 30,000km2.

As discussed in preceding sections (4.2 and 4.3), the existing data are limited in terms of distribution and quality. It is not the intention to establish a model which is limited to the extent and quality of the existing data. Rather the model representing the best technology available will make full advantage of the existing data, and at the same time have full scope to develop in terms of accuracy and level of detail as the database improves and expands.

As shown in figure 4.1, the set up of the model is scheduled to commence in December 2003, and be completed by August 2004. The model will be set up in a staged process, with each component added incrementally and finally integrated into a whole and calibrated against the available observed data.

4.7 Model Application Once the integrated model has been set up and calibrated, it can be applied to simulate a range of scenarios for the management plan. For each scenario and combination of scenarios simulated, the model will provide the impact in terms of water levels, discharges, etc. Appropriate time series of inputs (inflow, precipitation, etc) will be prepared and applied to the existing state of the delta. The results will be utilised as a baseline against which future developments may be assessed for their impacts.

Among the scenarios anticipated are:



• Upstream water resources developments: dams, irrigation, water supply in Angola and Namibia; and interbasin transfers

• Surface and ground water abstraction from the delta area

• Clearing choked channels by cutting reeds and dredging new channels

• Regional climate changes

As discussed in the previous section 4.6, only the proposed physically based approach to simulating the delta hydraulics separates the river and flood plain flows. This is essential to represent scenarios such as channel blockage, clearing and cutting.

The scenarios do not necessarily represent recommended developments, and include measures with known adverse impacts, the objective being a quantitative assessment of the impacts, both beneficial and adverse. DWA has been carrying out work clearing channel blockages to ease the flow downstream, with varying success. DWA’s involvement in the delta in respect of channel blockages, weed control and monitoring are functions which have evolved over time, since the Hydrology Division was established in the 1970s. These should be examined in the course of the management planning process.

Other scenarios may be prepared, though these should be chosen with care and the total number limited. Each scenario takes time to prepare and run through the model. More time consuming will be the time taken to analyse the results, and evaluate the results in the context of other scenarios. There is also the possibility to prepare combinations of scenarios. The number can increase geometrically, and the results become unmanageable. The following is suggested as a feasible maximum for impact analysis during the main implementation phase:

• six primary scenarios, such as the above, to assess the individual impacts of interventions

• three combined scenarios, representing high development of water resources, and minimum environmental considerations; minimum development of water resources, and maximum environmental consideration; an approach compromising the development with the environment

• A final refined scenario representing the recommended management plan for the Okavango Delta

The primary constraint is not the computations with the Integrated Hydrologic Model, but the evaluation of the results extending throughout the delta.

Based on the results of the basic scenarios, a set of scenarios representing the management plan will be prepared and through an iterative approach refined to the proposed plan. The application work is planned to take place from September 2004 to February 2005.

Water Supply and Waste Management Several projects are underway or planned to start soon regarding water supply and waste management, nationally and for the delta. Among these are:



• Updated 1992 National Water Master Plan, planned to start in 2004

• Water Conservation and Demand Management Project, currently running and proposed to be extended in 2004

• Various water supply studies in and around the delta

• ODMP Local Authority Services Provision (component 10) is preparing a District Waste Management Strategy

• National Sanitation and Wastewater Master Plan, started in January 2002

The component will coordinate with these studies, and obtain their short and long term proposals for surface and water ground water abstraction from the delta. These studies can also be expected to reveal the driving forces behind the demands (domestic, industrial, agricultural), and future trends. Given the amount and timing of these planned abstractions, the Hydrologic Model will simulate the impact on the delta as one of the scenarios for the management plan.

4.8 Reporting The primary reports to be prepared by the project are:

(1) A draft Inception Report, submitted on 7th November 2003.

(2) Final Inception Report for each of the two components, incorporating the comments of the Project Steering Committee to the draft, submitted by 19th December 2003.

(3) It is proposed to submit an Interim Report by 30th April 2005, marking the completion of the Team Leader’s long term input to the Project, and substantial completion of the Project activities.

(4) A draft Completion Report, to be submitted by 31st May 2006.

(5) Final Completion Report, to be submitted by 31st July 2006.

According to the Consultants’ contract, Progress Reports are to be submitted every six months, the first of which would coincide with the Inception Report. In a meeting with NCSA, DWA and the PMG on 27th August 2003, it was decided that this was too infrequent, and that Progress Reports should be submitted every two months.

The first Progress Report was submitted covering the period from May to September 2003. Avoiding coincidence with the draft and final Inception Reports, the next Progress Report will be submitted two months after the Inception Report, by 29th February 2004 and every two months thereafter.

Milestones in the Activity Schedules are marked by the working papers presenting the main activities, and recommendations and conclusions arising. The paper on Capacity Building in DWA was distributed in June 2003. Three working papers have been distributed as drafts in November and December:

• Hydrologic Data

• Hydrogeologic Data

• Recommendations for Improved Monitoring



The complete planned list of Working Papers for the Hydrology and Water Resources component is given in Annex B.

A Procedures Manual and Quality Assurance Plan for the Project have been distributed as drafts for comment in December 2003.

4.9 Related Okavango Delta Projects There are several related projects on the Okavango Delta recently initiated and of relevance to the Water Resources component:

• Environmental Protection and Sustainable Management of the Okavango River Basin – with the goal long term investment and protecting the ecological integrity of the basin, the UNDP/GEF project coordinated by OKACOM will complete a Trans-Boundary Diagnostic Analysis and formulate a Strategic Action Programme

• TwinBas – a European Union research project with the goal of knowledge brought to a level where Integrated Water Resources Management can be implemented for five twinned river basins around the world, including the Okavango River Basin

• Leseding Project – an initiative from the University of the Free State, South Africa conducting research focussing on fish ecology and the livelihood sustainability of Ngamiland people

• TIGER Partnership between the European Space Agency (ESA), the Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETZ) and DWA – establishing a monitoring programme for the Okavango Delta based on remote sensing

• Morphological studies related to the proposed hydropower development at Popa Falls in Namibia, conducted by DWA Namibia in cooperation with Witwatersrand University

The component will cooperate with these and other projects, within the basic constraints of the limited human and financial resources available. As a minimum, ODMP needs to be aware of the plans and projected outputs of these projects, and to share data and results. Further cooperation could result in enhancing the outputs and a closer realisation of the objectives of all projects, and an integration of the management of the entire river basin.



5 INPUTS

5.1 Project Staffing

5.1.1 Consultants The Consultants’ Team Leader commenced his long term assignment on the Project on 1st May 2003, coinciding with the ODMP Project start date. The Team Leader has an office in DWA in Gaborone. The Team Leader has been assessing the context of the planned activities, detailing these activities, initiating and guiding the progress according to the plan, and coordinating the activities with the ODMP project management, key related stakeholders and other organisations.

The deputy team leader followed with a two week input in May, and a three week input in July and August to prepare the implementation plans for the Research and Data Management component in consultation with the HOORC. The Information Technology Specialist continued the work with HOORC in October to prepare the implementation of the Consultants’ support to HOORC in Data Management for the ODMP, including an Activity Schedule and the Consultants’ staffing inputs.

The Remote Sensing Expert made his first input of two weeks in the beginning of August, collecting and evaluating the available data for the Topographic Model. Substantial data sets were obtained from HOORC and DGS. Following a delayed start while the PMG considered an alternative approach, the work to set up the model is now underway in Denmark. The expert will make a return visit early next year to deliver the working model, and provide training for DWA staff in its setup and use.

The national consultants on the Hydrology and Water Resources component, the Hydrologist, Hydrogeologist and Morphologist were mobilised in June and July, and have collected and evaluated the available data in their respective fields. The two international monitoring specialists made their first input in September and October, and have made recommendations on improved monitoring of the delta for the management plan. Depending on the implementation by DWA and ODMP of the recommendations, the monitoring specialists are available for a short period to provide further input and advice. If a major programme is taken up as recommended, this could be extended if required.

An outline of the staffing schedule for the first two years of the Hydrology and Water Resources component, including the DWA Modelling Unit, is presented in figure 5.1. Staffing for the Research and Data Management component is also included.

5.1.2 Proposed Staff Changes

Modelling Specialists The Consultants have proposed changes to the staffing of the Water Resources modelling specialists. The complex dynamic interactions between the atmospheric, surface and ground waters in the delta area require a high level of specialist expertise in integrated hydrologic modelling. The substitution of Steen Asger Nielsen with Torsten Jacobsen with a significant input reflects this need.



Inception Report

Junior Engineer I

Junior Engineer II

System Analyst

International ConsultantsTeam Leader JAM

Surface/Ground Water Specialist OS

Water Quality Specialist SØD

Hydrology Modeller TVJ

Sediment Transport Modeller HGE

Ground Water Modeller PBH

Information Technology Specialist JTC

Research Hydrologist JCR

Research Social Scientist

Natural Resource Specialists

National ConsultantsHydrologist FS

Surface/Ground Water Specialist IM

Sediment Transport Specialist MJM

GIS Database Provider CM

System Developer AW

Research Strategy Leader WE


2003 2004 2005Jan Feb Mar AprSep Oct Nov DecMay Jun Jul AugJan Feb Mar AprSep Oct Nov DecMay Jun Jul Aug

14.0

14.0

7.0

18.0

2.0

1.0

3.25

2.0

0.75

5.0

1.0

1.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

3.0

15.0

4.0

2.0

4.0

Inception Report

Junior Engineer I

Junior Engineer II

System Analyst

International ConsultantsTeam Leader JAM

Surface/Ground Water Specialist OS

Water Quality Specialist SØD

Hydrology Modeller TVJ

Sediment Transport Modeller HGE

Ground Water Modeller PBH

Information Technology Specialist JTC

Research Hydrologist JCR

Research Social Scientist


National ConsultantsHydrologist FS

Surface/Ground Water Specialist IM

Sediment Transport Specialist MJM

GIS Database Provider CM

System Developer AW

Research Strategy Leader WE


2003 2004 2005Jan Feb Mar AprSep Oct Nov DecMay Jun Jul AugJan Feb Mar AprSep Oct Nov DecMay Jun Jul Aug

14.0

14.0

7.0

18.0

2.0

1.0

3.25

2.0

0.75

5.0

1.0

1.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

3.0

15.0

4.0

2.0

4.0

page 5-2

DWA Modelling UnitUnit Manager

Senior Engineer I

Senior Engineer II

Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Dec Jan FebJan Feb Mar AprSep Oct Nov Dec2003 2004 2005

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

7.0

17.0

17.0

TOTAL


page 5-2

Figure 5.1: Project Staff Schedule

DWA Modelling UnitUnit Manager

Senior Engineer I

Senior Engineer II

Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Dec Jan FebJan Feb Mar AprSep Oct Nov Dec2003 2004 2005

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

7.0

17.0

17.0

TOTAL


Dr Jacobsen has extensive experience in both the development and application of integrated hydrologic models, to studies with similarities to the Okavango Delta eg the Florida Everglades Restoration, as well as in training courses for staff in organisations applying the technology.

Other staffing and the total staff input and finance remain unchanged at present. DWA has accepted the need for the proposed changes, which are reflected in the Consultants’ staffing schedule for the component (figure 5.1).

Input of Team Leader The Team Leader has a total input of 20 months, comprising a long term input of 18 months in the first two years of the management plan up to April 2005, followed by two months of short term inputs in the remaining 15 months. The overall project schedule is delayed on two counts:

• The extended discussion over the approach to the development of the Topographic Model (see section 4.5) has resulted in a delay of one to two months in this activity

• The inception phase of the remaining eight ODMP components has been extended by three months, to February 2004 – this is likely to have an impact on the progress of the Water Resources component

It may therefore prove necessary to extend the long term input of the Team Leader beyond April 2005. This is still 17 months in the future, and it is proposed to reassess the situation nearer the time when a decision on this matter would be required, some time in the second half of 2004.

5.1.3 DWA Staff DWA has assigned an experienced engineering hydrologist from the Hydrology Division, and an experienced hydrogeologist from the Ground Water Division (recently transferred from DGS) to the Modelling Unit. DWA has also recently recruited graduate engineers, two of whom have been assigned to the Modelling Unit. A systems engineer and a GIS specialist from the IT Division will support the unit on a part time basis. It is planned to give the staff specific responsibilities within the unit.

In principle, the assignment of new graduates alongside experienced engineers is sound. The new minds should be capable of rapidly acquiring the modelling skills, under the guidance of the experienced engineers. DWA staff training is described in section 4.4. The new graduates will require basic training in hydrology and hydraulics, not envisaged in the Consultants’ proposal and contract.

Staff of the DWA Hydrology Division have been working with the Consultants in the various project activities, including arrangements for accompanying on field trips, data collection and evaluation, general project start up and recently the collaboration with DSM on the delta gauge board survey. A formal assignment of the regional staff to the project will result in a higher degree of participation.



5.2 Equipment

5.2.1 Project Vehicles According to contract, a project vehicle has been provided by the Consultants from Danida funds. This a is four wheel drive field vehicle, an Isuzu Trooper 3.1, purchased by the Consultants in Denmark and shipped to Botswana, arriving on 14th July. Under the government to government agreement, the vehicle was cleared through customs free of duties and taxes, and registered and insured on 18th July 2003.

The vehicle is operated by the Team Leader, and is used for official business in and around Gaborone, and field trips to the delta. The Consultant is presently financing the running costs; reimbursement by DWA is being processed through their accounts department and NCSA. A log book of the vehicle’s use is maintained by the Team Leader.

The Central Transport Organisation of the Botswana Government is obtaining a second project vehicle primarily for DWA use. It is proposed that this vehicle is also operated by the Team Leader, with the running costs reimbursed by DWA. This may cause problems for the Consultants’ cash flow (see section 5.3, Project Finances).

5.2.2 Computer Hardware The Consultants in cooperation with the DWA IT Division have prepared a specification for the computer hardware for the Modelling Unit, comprising five personal computers and peripherals, described in detail in the Capacity Building in DWA report. The planned layout is shown in figure 5.2.

TeamLeader

Hydrology

DataProcessing

Short TermInternational

Experts

SurfaceWater

GroundWater

Backup

HUB

DWA LAN DWA LAN

Model Room

Figure 5.2: Layout of Computers for DWA Modelling Unit



The Consultants had obtained six quotations from potential suppliers and, in cooperation with DWA, selected the best in terms of equipment and price. The recently ascertained procurement procedure requires supply through Botswana owned companies, and retendering is in process. It is proving difficult to obtain the five quotation required. The present DWA budget of BWP132,000 is sufficient to purchase four computers. Some additional funds may be required to purchase the fifth computer and a projector.

The computers will be set up on the DWA and Government of Botswana network, with Internet and e-mail access. Two important generally available Internet facilities are not available on the government network:

• File transfer protocol (FTP) is essential for exchanging large amounts of information such as will be required for the management plan over the Internet

• Virtual private network (VPN) is required to log into external networks such as at DHI in Denmark – this facility will greatly improve the efficiency of the modelling specialists

DWA is requested to provide these facilities in the Modelling Unit.

5.2.3 Computer Software The Capacity Building in DWA report also sets out the recommended software for the unit. This comprises three sets of the MIKE SHE – MIKE 11 software package, developed by DHI, and incorporating ArcView GIS. The latest version of the software will be delivered, and DHI will provide software support and upgrades for the duration of the ODMP project.

The three packages will enable the modelling staff to work on the development of the components (hydrology, surface water and ground water) separately in parallel. A fourth package is recommended for purchase by HOORC, as a university license.

DWA initially had a budget of USD20,000 for modelling software. This was recognised as inadequate in the Consultants’ proposal, and the Consultants’ accordingly allocated savings in the Topographic Survey budget to purchase one software package. In the contract negotiations between Danida and the Consultants, with the participation of the Government of Botswana, this partial reallocation of funds was subjected to approval by the ODMP Project Steering Committee.

The issue became confused with the Consultants’ approach to the Topographic Survey (see section 4.5). After extensive discussions with the Project Management Group, the issue has been resolved by NCSA and DWA. The Consultants will now provide the first copy of the MIKE SHE – MIKE 11 software package from the Danida budget.

The second and third copies will be purchased by DWA. DHI will provide these copies within the DWA budget of BWP200,000. This represents a significant discount over the normal prices, reflecting DHI’s close involvement with ODMP. There is also as yet no budget for the fourth copy to be supplied to HOORC (BWP112,500). HOORC research staff could provide invaluable long term support to DWA and the ODMP in applying the modelling software to the Okavango Delta, and to other catchments and rivers in Botswana.



5.2.4 Office Furniture and Equipment DWA is planning to furnish the Modelling Unit office from the routine budget, although it appears funds are not available from this source. Office equipment (telefax and photocopier) has been purchased from the DWA ODMP budget. Internet facilities will be available over the DWA and government network. DWA is requested to extend these to FTP and VPN access (see section 5.2.2), normally available over the Internet but blocked on the government network.

Office communications are funded from the DWA budget. The Team Leader has to be in close contact with DWA and other concerned ODMP organisations, and has accordingly requested DWA to meet the cost for the official use of a mobile telephone. The Team Leader will spending several weeks of the project period in Maun; most key ODMP staff use mobile telephones; the telephone lines into DWA are often fully engaged, making it difficult for outside callers to call; and finally it is not possible to call a mobile telephone from the government lines.

DWA provides senior staff with mobile telephones, and covers their use up to BWP250. DWA is requested to provide this service to the Team Leader.

5.2.5 Monitoring Comprehensive recommendations have been prepared for improvements to the gauging stations operated and maintained by DWA in the delta, to provide a solid database comprising long term systematic data that capture the range of hydrologic events, and sequences of events. The monitoring equipment cover the key systems in the delta: climatic, surface and ground water, and sediment transport. DWA has a budget of BWP1,390,000 to implement the programme.

While the detailed specification, design and installation of the equipment proposed requires specialist assistance, they can be operated and maintained by DWA technical field staff, subject to a review of staff numbers and training needs.

5.3 Project Finances

5.3.1 Introduction The Project is financed jointly by the Governments of Botswana and Denmark. The finances have four broad components:

• Danida support to the two components totalling DKK11,250,4652, of which DKK7,194,245 is for staff resources and DKK4,056,220 for equipment and expenses

• German Development Service (DED) support to HOORC for participatory planning, totalling USD190,000

• GoB support to HOORC totalling USD251,000, of which USD52,000 is for staff resources and USD199,000 for equipment and expenses

2 At October 2003 exchange rates, BWP1.00 is equivalent to DKK1.375 and USD0.215.



• GoB support to DWA totalling BWP2,514,000, of which BWP180,000 is for staff resources and BWP2,334,000 for equipment and expenses

5.3.2 Danida Project Finances Danida finances totalling DKK11,250,465 are available for disbursement by the Consultants according to the predicted cash flow. According to the Tender Dossier, Appendix B, the Government of Botswana will provide funding for travel accommodation and subsistence of local staff. In preparing the budget Consultant has interpreted “local staff” to include national consultants, while DWA has confirmed that “local staff” includes only DWA staff. There is as a result no budget for the field trips and other local travel expenses for national consultants. Additional funding is requested for this item amounting to DKK. A detailed breakdown is given in table 5.1.

Table 5.1: Additional Danida Financing for Local Travel

CODE BUDGET HEAD DESCRIPTION UNIT QUANTITY RATE (DKK)

AMOUNT (DKK)

Short term National Consultants in Maun day 510 600 306,000

Long term National Consultants in Maun month 16 4,100 65,600

B.2.4.2.2 Subsistance Allowance

Short term National Consultants in Maun day 510 374 190,740

TOTAL 562,340

B.2.4.1.1 Accommodation

According to the budget, while Danida funds have been utilised to purchase the project vehicle, DWA will pay running costs. DWA has recently established the procedure for the disbursement of funds allocated for ODMP (see section 5.3.3).

For the efficiency of the project logistics, the running of the project vehicle has been financed by the Consultants from Danida funds. At the end of September 2003, these totalled BWP21,422.91, including the major item of the insurance premium. It is anticipated that the Consultants will shortly be reimbursed by DWA. It is further proposed that the Consultants initially meet the running costs of the DWA project vehicle.

5.3.3 GoB Support to DWA Funds totalling BWP2,514,000 have been made available by the Government of Botswana to DWA to support the ODMP. The breakdown of the planned expenditure is summarised in table 5.3.

Through the Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board, procedures have recently been established enabling DWA to disburse these funds. An order for the procurement of computer hardware and software for the Modelling Unit will be given shortly, and the Consultant reimbursed around BWP22,000 for vehicle running costs.



Of particular relevance and importance to the management plan is the expenditure on monitoring. The Consultants have drafted recommendations for expenditure exceeding BWP1,000,000 on improved monitoring in the delta in the course of 2004 (see section 4.3.2).

Table 5.3: DWA Project Finances ITEM AMOUNT (BWP)

Staff Resources 180,000 + from revenue budget

Office 72,000 + from revenue budget

Transport 390,000

Computer Hardware and Software 332,000

Monitoring 1,390,000

Satellite Images 150,000

TOTAL 2,514,000



6 SUMMARY OF KEY ISSUES

6.1 Introduction The following sections summarise the key issues raised in the Inception Report with reference to the ODMP Logical Framework Assessment for the Hydrology and Water Resources component, with recommendations for actions to address the issues.

6.2 Improved Monitoring A critical output of the Hydrology and Water Resources component is a quality controlled database comprising existing climatic, hydrologic, surface and ground water and sediment data for the Okavango Delta. In cooperation with DWA, the Consultants have conducted an evaluation of the available data, and prepared recommendations for improved monitoring of all data categories. The recommendations comprise expenditure in excess of BWP1,000,000, for further investigations, detailed specification of equipment and design of installations and procurement of equipment.

It is recommended that the improved monitoring programme is urgently reviewed by DWA and the PMG, the latter in the context of the ODMP. The programme should be refined incorporating comments from the review, and implemented in the course of 2004. Improved data could then become available for the management planning process before the end of 2004, with some eighteen months remaining to utilise these improved data to refine the plans.

As reported in section 4.2, DWA has already shown a strong commitment to ODMP and monitoring in giving priority to a gauge board datum survey to be carried out by DSM in November 2003.

6.3 DWA Modelling Unit The analysis of the hydrology of the Okavango Delta for ODMP rests substantially with the application of the planned Integrated Hydrologic Model. The sustainability of the application depends on the establishment of the capability in DWA to operate the model and adapt it to changing needs in the long term. The bases for the establishment of the DWA Modelling Unit are capable staff assigned full time to the unit, and the computer system on which to set up and run the model.

Staffing The Consultants have prepared a report Capacity Building in DWA, setting out the staffing and computing requirements. In the course of the inception phase, DWA Hydrology staff have been working alongside the Consultant on an occasional basis. In December, four staff have been formally assigned to the Unit, and correspondingly relieved of other duties. Existing staff resources were not sufficient. DGS has transferred a Hydrogeologist to the DWA Ground Water Division, and DWA has recruited university graduates two of whom have been assigned to the Unit.



The staff should be given specific responsibilities within the unit. The staffing level and progress in assimilating the modelling technology will be kept under review.

Computers DWA has received funds from the government for ODMP, including a budget for computer hardware and software. Procedures have only recently been established enabling DWA to disburse these funds.

The Consultants obtained quotations for the hardware and software, comprising five personal computers and peripheral devices, and four modelling packages, one of which would be passed to HOORC to provide support to DWA in the long term. Danida funds permit the purchase of one modelling package, and DHI has agreed to supply the second and third copies within the DWA software budget.

It has recently been determined that hardware tendering is limited to Botswana suppliers. It is proving difficult to obtain the five quotations required. As this is now delaying the work of the Modelling Unit, DWA should urgently complete the procurement procedures to purchase the computers. It is further recommended that an additional budget of BWP112,500 is allocated to acquire a university license for the fourth modelling software package for HOORC.

Communications Good communications are essential for the DWA Modelling Unit to function efficiently, both within ODMP and internationally. In order to ensure this, DWA is requested to provide the following additional lines:

• A mobile telephone for the team leader, according to normal government rules

• For the efficient transfer of data and information, FTP and VPN Internet access over the DWA LAN

6.4 Equipment The Consultants have acquired a project vehicle from Danida funds. DWA has a budget from the government to meet the running costs. The Consultants have met the running costs to date, awaiting reimbursement from DWA which is now in process. DWA is obtaining a second project vehicle from government funds. It is also proposed that the Consultants operate the vehicle with running costs provided by DWA.

In order not to jeopardise the Consultants’ cash flow, DWA is requested to provide an advance to the Consultant to meet the running costs of both vehicles.

6.5 Danida Finances As explained in section 5.3.2, there is no budget for field trips and other local travel expenses for national consultants. Additional funding is requested for this item, totalling DKK562,340.



BIBLIOGRAPHY

Project Reports

TITLE AUTHOR PUBLISHER DATE

Study of Open Water Evaporation in Botswana

SMEC, Australia

DWA March 1987

Southern Okavango Integrated Water Development – Phase 1

SMEC, Australia

DWA June 1987

Ecological Zoning Okavango Delta

SMEC, Australia

Kalahari Conservation Society

April 1989

Review of Southern Integrated Water Development Project

IUCN IUCN October 1992

Maun Ground Water Development Project – Hydrological Analysis

Francis Sefe DWA March 1996

Feasibility Study on the Okavango River to Grootfontein Link of the Eastern National Water Carrier – Vol 4, parts 1, 3 and 4

BICON, Namibia

LCE

Parkmen

DWA, Namibia August 1997

Okavango River Basin – Climate and Water Resources

Francis Sefe OKACOM February 1998

Botswana Wetlands Policy and Strategy – Issues for National Consultation

Ecosurv

IUCN

NCSA February 1999

Okavango River Panhandle Management Plan – Technical Proposal, Progress Reports 2 and 3

NRP Tawana Land Board

December 2000 to March 2001

Design Mission Towards an Integrated Management Plan of the Okavango Delta

HOORC NCSA April 2001

Hydrology, Water Quality and Supply Component of the Proposed Okavango Delta Management Plan – Pre-Appraisal Report

DHI Water and Environment

DANCED October 2001

Inception Report page R-1


TITLE AUTHOR PUBLISHER DATE

Integrated Management Plan for the Okavango Delta – Mission Report

NCSA-IUCN December 2001

Okavango Delta Management Plan – Project Proposal

National Conservation Strategy Agency

October 2002

Rapid Biological Assessment of Aquatic Ecosystems of Okavango Delta: High Water Survey

Alonso LE, Nordin L-A

RAP Bulletin of Biological Assessment

2003

Transboundary Rivers, Sovereignty and Development: Hydropolitical Drivers in Okavango River Basin

Turton, Ashton and Cloete

African Water Issues Research Unit, South Africa and Green Cross International, Switzerland

2003

Identification of Blockages in Okavango Delta: Causes and Effects (draft)

C Naidu Kurugundla

DWA February 2003

Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan – Stocktaking Report (draft)

IUCN and Ecosurv

NCSA July 2003

Prefeasibility Study for Popa Falls Hydropower Project (draft)

Water Transfer Consultants, Namibia

NamPower August 2003

Prefeasibility Study for Popa Falls Hydropower Project – Preliminary Environmental Assessment (draft)

Water Transfer Consultants, Namibia

NamPower August 2003

Management Plan for the Okavango River Panhandle

Ngamiland District

Rainfall Observation Network in the Okavango Delta

Piotr Wolski

Anneloes de Wit

HOORC December 2003

page R-2 Inception Report


Scientific Papers

(1) Wolski P, Gumbricht T, McCarthy TS: Assessing Future Change in the Okavango Delta: Use of a Regression Model of the Maximum Annual Flood in a Monte Carlo Simulation, submitted for publication

(2) Ramberg L, Wolski P, Krah M: Water Balance on a Seasonal Floodplain in the Okavango Delta, submitted for publication

(3) McCue KM, Burger P, von Christierson B: Development of an Integrated Surface Water and Ground Water Interaction Model for Volusia County’s Tiger Bay/Bennett Swamp, Proceedings of DHI Software Conference, Orlando, 2002

(4) Bauer P, Brunner P, Kinzelbach W: Quantifying the Net Exchange of Water Between Land and Atmosphere in the Okavango Delta, Institute of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management, Zurich

(5) Bauer P et al: Is Density Flow Balancing the Salt Budget of the Okavango Delta? Evidence from Field and Modelling Studies, Institute of Hydromechanics and Water Resources Management, Zurich

(6) Ellery WN, McCarthy TS, Dangerfield JM: Floristic Diversity in Okavango Delta as an Endogenous Product of Biological Activity, Biodiversity in Wetlands, vol 1, 2000

(7) Jason Y, Hopkins E, Sørensen HR, Kjelds JT: Integrated Hydrologic Wetland Modelling in South Florida, ASCE Water Resources and Hydrology Conference, Seattle, August 1999

(8) Report of the Expert Group Meeting on Strategic Approaches to Freshwater Management, UNDESA, Harare, January 1998

(9) Seen LO et al: An Approach to Couple Vegetation Functioning and Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer Models for Semi-Arid Grasslands, Agriculture and Forest Meteorology, 1997

(10) Ellery WN, McCarthy TS: Environmental Change over Two Decades since Dredging and Excavation of Lower Boro River, Okavango Delta, Journal of Biogeography, vol 25, 1998

(11) McCarthy TS and Ellery WN: Failure of Nqoga Channel between Hamoga and Letenetso Islands, North Eastern Okavango Delta, Botswana Notes and Records, vol 27

(12) Merry CL et al: GPS Heightening in Okavango Delta, Journal of Surveying Engineering, Nov 1998

(13) McCarthy et al: Gradient of Okavango Fan, and its Sedimentological and Tectonic Implications, Journal of African Earth Sciences, vol 24, 1997

(14) McCarthy TS, Ellery WN, Bloem A: The Gradient on the Okavango Fan and its Sedimentological and Tectonic Implications, Journal of African Affairs Earth Science, 1997.

(15) McCarthy TS, Ellery WN, Bloem A: Observations on the Geomorphological Impact of Hippopotamus in the Okavango Delta, African Journal of Ecology, 1997

Inception Report page R-3


(16) Smith ND, McCarthy TS, Ellery WN, Merry CL, Ruther H: Avulsion and Anastomosis in the Panhandle Region of the Okavango Fan, Geomorphology, 1997

(17) McCarthy TS, Bloem A, Larkin PA: Observations on the Hydrology and Geohydrology of the Okavango Delta, South African Journal of Geology, 1997

(18) Ellery WN, McCarthy TS: Fluvial Dynamics of Maunachira Channel System, North Eastern Okavango Swamps, Water SA, vol 23, Apr 1997

(19) Haruyama S, Ohokura H, Simking T, Ramphin: Geomorphological Zoning for Flood Inundation using Satellite Data, GeoJournal, Vol 38.3, March 1996

(20) Ellery WN, Ellery K, Rogers KH, McCarthy TS: Role of Cyperus Papyrus L in Channel Blockage and Abandonment in North Eastern Okavango Delta, African Journal of Ecology, vol 33, 1995

(21) Ellery WN, McCarthy TS: Principles for Sustainable Utilisation of Okavango Delta Ecosystem, Biological Conservation, 1994

(22) Stanistreet IG, McCarthy TS: The Okavango Fan and the Classification of Subaerial Fan Systems, Sedimentary Geology, 1993

(23) Stanistreet IG, Cairncross B: Low Sinuosity and Meandering Bedload Rivers of the Okavango Fan, Sedimentary Geology, 1993

(24) McCarthy TS, Green RW, Franey NJ: The Influence of Neo-Tectonics on Water Dispersal in the North Eastern Regions of the Okavango Swamp, Journal of African Earth Sciences, 1993

(25) Ellery WN et al: Vegetation, Hydrology and Sedimentation Processes as Determinants of Channel Form and Dynamics in the North Eastern Okavango Delta, African Journal of Ecology, Vol 93, 1993

(26) McCarthy TS, Ellery WN, Stanistreet IG: Avulsion Mechanisms on the Okavango Fan, Sedimentology, 1992

(27) McCarthy TS: Physical and Biological Processes Controlling the Okavango Delta, Botswana Notes and Records, Vol 24, 1992

(28) McCarthy TS, Stanistreet IG, Cairncross B: The Sedimentary Dynamics of Active Channels on the Okavango Fan, Sedimentology, 1991

(29) McCarthy TS, Stanistreet IG, Cairncross B: The Sedimentary Dynamics of Active Fluvial Channels on the Okavango Fan, Sedimentology, 1991

(30) Ellery WN et al: Formation, Colonisation and Fate of Floating Sudds in the Maunachira River System of the Okavango Delta, Aquatic Botany, Vol 38, 1990

(31) McCarthy TS, Metcalfe J: Chemical Sedimentation in the Semi-Arid environment of the Okavango Delta, Chemical Geology, 1990

(32) McCarthy TS et al: Incremental Aggradation on the Okavango Delta Fan, Geomorphology, 1988

page R-4 Inception Report


ANNEX A – ODMP LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ASSESSMENT The LFA for the Hydrology and Water Resources component from the ODMP Project Proposal is reproduced, incorporating a column with comments on any adjustments made. The numbers in square brackets refer to the sections in the text of this Inception Report where the issues are discussed in detail.

ODMP PROJECT PROPOSAL ADJUSTMENTS ODMP PROJECT PROPOSAL ADJUSTMENTS OBJECTIVE OUTCOMES/OUTPUTS

Improved water resources planning, monitoring and evaluation and field interventions in the Okavango Delta based on an enhanced capacity of the Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Affairs.

[2.1] Outcomes:

1. Improved knowledge and understanding of the hydrology of the Okavango Delta informing planning, decision making and operations.

[3.3]

There are two crucial components to the overall objective:

• Informed decisions are taken on envisaged water resources interventions and climatic scenarios within the entire Okavango River Basin.

[3.3] 2. Increased water supply and sanitation coverage and reduced production of harmful waste in the Okavango Delta.

Impact analysis based on model simulations of surface and ground water abstraction scenarios [4.7].

• Build capacity and capability within the Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Affairs with respect to water resources management in general and hydrological modelling in particular.

[3.4] 3. Results of monitoring and evaluation activities inform and improve decision making and operational management in the Okavango Delta.

[4.3]

Inception Report page A-1


ODMP PROJECT PROPOSAL ADJUSTMENTS ODMP PROJECT PROPOSAL ADJUSTMENTS OBJECTIVE OUTCOMES/OUTPUTS

Outputs:

1.1 Comprehensive integrated hydrological model

1.2 Hydrological impact assessment of selected water resources management interventions

1.3 DWA staff reports and demonstrations of the operational hydrological model

[4.6]

[4.7]

[4.4]

2.1 A water supply plan for the Okavango Delta

2.2 A waste management plan for the Okavango Delta

2.3 Successful demonstration activities on water supply and waste management in the Okavango Delta

The water supply and waste management plans are covered by the National Water Master Plan and the National Sanitation and Wastewater Management Plan. The model will simulate scenarios having a bearing on physical parameters [4.7]. The Integrated Hydrologic Model will not at this stage include water quality.

3.1 A hydro climatic monitoring needs assessment

3.2 Hydro climatic monitoring equipment installed and producing data

3.3 A pollution monitoring needs assessment and strategy

3.4 Initial production of relevant pollution data

[4.2]



ODMP PROJECT PROPOSAL ADJUSTMENTS ODMP PROJECT PROPOSAL ADJUSTMENTS

ACTIVITIES (INDICATIVE) ACTIVITIES (ACTUAL) ASSUMPTIONS/VERIFICATIONS

Inception Phase of 6 months will include the following main activities:

• Mobilisation

• Inception consultancies, review of literature and purchase of satellite images and topographic-survey

• Data review

• Initial setting-up of pilot hydrological model

• Field campaign (instrumentation, climatic stations and inflow checks)

• Training need assessment and recruitment of trainees

• Inception Report

• Available data has been collected, processed and evaluated [4.2]

• Recommendations have been made for an improved monitoring programme for climatic, surface, ground water and water quality data [4.3]

• Five DWA staff should be formally assigned to the Modelling Unit in December 2003 – a training needs assessment will be conducted shortly thereafter [4.4]

• An outline of the training programme in hydrologic modelling for the DWA staff has been prepared [4.4]

• DWA has finalised procedures to purchase equipment, and quotations for computer equipment are being evaluated [4.4]

• Activities to establish the Topographic Model of the delta are underway [4.5]

• The draft Inception Report has been prepared and comments received for incorporation in the final version [4.8]

There is one important assumption that is considered to involve a significant risk not only to the implementation of the Hydrology and Water Resources Component but in particular to the long term sustainability of the envisaged building of water resources management capacity within the GoB and consequently also to the long term implementation of the Okavango Management Plan: that DWA makes a long-term commitment to ensure full ownership of the Hydrology and Water Resources Component and in particular the aspect of hydrology modelling development and capacity building.

The issue of capacity building in DWA is a critical issue. Staff have only recently been assigned to the Modelling Unit (December 2003), and the purchase of computers is presently being processed. The Consultant has prepared an outline training programme, and a three stage assessment procedure to be conducted with DWA project management [4.4]:

• An initial needs assessment, based on the individual education and experience levels

• A second assessment, following the implementation of the in-country training programme, with recommendations for further training, including overseas

• A final assessment at the end of the project, with recommendations for further staff development



ODMP PROJECT PROPOSAL ADJUSTMENTS ODMP PROJECT PROPOSAL ADJUSTMENTS

ACTIVITIES (INDICATIVE) ACTIVITIES (ACTUAL) ASSUMPTIONS/VERIFICATIONS

An initial setup of the Integrated Hydrologic Model has not been prepared owing to the need to collect and evaluate available data, and the establishment of the Topographic Model on which the hydrlogic model depends. [4.6]



ANNEX B – WORKING PAPERS NO TITLE CONTENTS MAIN

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTORS DATE

1 Capacity Buildingin DWA

Staffing and training, and specification of hardware and software for the DWA Modelling Unit

Alasdair Macdonald

- June 2003

2 Assessment ofDWA Training Needs I

Assessment of the formal and on-the-job training needs of the DWA staff assigned to the Modelling Unit

Alasdair Macdonald

- November2003

3 Modelling Concept Presentation of the concept of the Integrated Hydrologic Model of the Okavango Delta

Alasdair Macdonald

- October2003

4 Hydrologic andHydrogeologic Data

Evaluation of the available climatic, hydrometric, sediment transport, hydrogeologic and topographic data for the Okavango Delta

Francis Sefe Israel Mabua November 2003

5 Recommendationson Improved Monitoring

Recommendations to improve the procedures for and extend the scope of the data collection and management (including institutional aspects, equipment, staff and training)

Steen Dahl Ole Smith November 2003

6 Methodology to Set Up a Topographic Model

Evaluation of available remotely sensed data, and derivation of the methodology to set up the Topographic Model of the Okavango Delta

Mikael Kamp Sørensen

- November2003

7 Topographic Modelof the Okavango Delta

Report on the data, processing and set up of the Topographic Model of the Okavango Delta

Mikael Kamp Sørensen

- February2004

8 Fluvial Morphologyand Geology of the Okavango Delta

Review of sources of information, evaluation of the data, and description of the fluvial morphology and geology of the Okavango Delta

Margaret McFarlane

- January2004

Inception Report page B-1


Inception Report page B-2

NO TITLE CONTENTS MAIN AUTHOR CONTRIBUTORS DATE

9 Assessment ofDWA Training Needs II

Review of the formal and on-the-job training of the DWA staff assigned to the Modelling Unit, and an assessment of the oversees training needs

Alasdair Macdonald

- July 2004

10 IntegratedHydrologic Model of the Okavango Delta

Report on the set up and calibration of the Integrated Hydrologic Model of the Okavango Delta

Alasdair Macdonald

Torsten V Jakobsen

Per Bøgelund Hansen

Hans Gustav Enggrob

August 2004

11 Preliminary ModelScenarios for ODMP

Determination of the scenarios whose impact will be analysed with the Integrated Hydrologic Model of the Okavango Delta

Alasdair Macdonald

Francis Sefe September 2004

12 Preliminary Resultsof Model Scenarios for ODMP

Preliminary report on the results of the scenarios whose impact has been analysed applying the Integrated Hydrologic Model of the Okavango Delta

Alasdair Macdonald

Torsten V Jakobsen


Hans Gustav Enggrob

December 2004

13 Results of Model Scenarios for ODMP

Report on the results of the scenarios whose impact has been analysed applying the Integrated Hydrologic Model of the Okavango Delta

Alasdair Macdonald

Torsten V Jakobsen


Hans Gustav Enggrob

February 2005

14 Status of DWA Modelling Unit

Review of the establishment of the Modelling Unit in DWA and the capacity building programme.

Modelling Unit Manager

Modelling Unit Staff

Alasdair Macdonald

March 2005

Documents

ODMP hydrology and water resources Inception report