October Fall Foliage Season Travel Trends & 2013 - steve-morse…€¦ · Pg. C O L L E G E O F B U S I N E S S October Fall Foliage Season Travel Trends & 2013 October Tourism Forecast

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C O L L E G E O F B U S I N E S S

October Fall Foliage Season Travel Trends & 2013

October Tourism Forecast for Western North Carolina

Source: Smith Travel Research, Hotel performance data for 21 counties in Western NC, Dr. Steve Morse and analysis from the Fall

Semester 2013 students enrolled in Hospitality and Tourism Management 438 (HT 438: Strategic Mgt. for the Hospitality & Tourism Industry).

This report was prepared by Dr. Steve Morse, in

conjunction with students enrolled in class HT 438:

“Strategic Management in the Hospitality & Tourism

Industry” Fall 2013 at Western Carolina University.

Steve Morse, Ph.D.

Economist & Director Hospitality & Tourism Management

College of Business

Western Carolina University

Cullowhee, NC 28723

Ph: (828) 227-3386

E-mail: [email protected]

Blue Ridge Parkway’s Linn Cove

Viaduct near Linville, NC

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Table of Contents

About this Study:

(Purpose of the study, data sources, students participating) Page 3

Map of five regions in Western North Carolina

used in study Page 4

Executive Summary: 2012 October travel trends and 2013

October travel forecast at a Glance (Table) Page 5

Week-End vs. Week-Day hotel occupancy rates for October

2012 by Region Page 6

Region 1: October fall foliage travel trends & forecast

(Cherokee, Clay, Graham & Macon Counties, NC) Page 7


(Haywood, Jackson, Transylvania & Swain Counties, NC) Page 8


(Avery, Ashe, Wilkes, Alleghany, Caldwell, Watauga Counties, NC) Page 9


(Yancey, Mitchell, Madison, McDowell & Burke counties, NC) Page 10


(Buncombe & Henderson Counties, NC) Page 11


Semester 2013 students enrolled in Hospitality and Tourism Management 438 (HT 438: Strategic Mgt. for the Hospitality & Tourism

Pg. 3

Purpose of the Study:

The purpose of this study is two fold: 1) to measure

the impact of the October Fall Foliage travel demand

on the Western North Carolina area, and 2) to use

historical trends and hotel performance data to

forecast the 2013 October Fall Foliage travel demand

for Western North Carolina.

Who Completed the Study:

Under the direction of Dr. Steve Morse, economist and

director of the Hospitality and Tourism program in the

College of Business at Western Carolina University,

the fall semester 2013 class of HT 438: “Strategic

Management for the Hospitality and Tourism Industry”

collected, analyzed and interpreted the data.

Data Source for the Study:

Hotel performance data for the 21 North Carolina

county region in this study was generously provided

by Smith Travel Research, Hendersonville, TN. Smith

Travel is the world’s leader in hotel performance data

and Western Carolina appreciates their contribution of

data in training the next group of hospitality and

tourism leaders.

Students Participating in this Study:

Region 1: Ellen Anderberg (leader), Mackenzie

LaValley, Brianne McCain, Daniel Ratliff,

Samantha Wilks

Region 2: Cory Brookshire (leader), Brittney

Marksberry, Sam Melton, Witt Pinkerton,

Courtney Williams

Region 3: Savannah Forest (leader), Bryan Lock,

Drew Miller, Ashelyn Roberts, Cayela

Young

Region 4: Taylor Johnson (leader), Tyler Marshall,

Kyle Moser, Chloe Jordan

Region 5: Andy Schaefer (leader), Jennifer Mathews,

Jonathan Pena, Tiffany Sommer

C O L L E G E O F B U S I N E S S

About This Study

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5 Regions for Western North Carolina Fall Foliage Travel Trends and Forecast

Region 1

Cherokee, Clay,

Graham &

Macon Counties

Region 2

Haywood, Jackson,

Transylvania & Swain

Counties

Region 3

Avery, Ashe, Wilkes,

Alleghany, Caldwell

& Watauga Counties

Region 4

Yancey, Mitchell,

Madison, McDowell

& Burke Counties Region 5

Buncombe &

Henderson Counties



Pg. 5

Region &

Counties

No. hotel room

nights sold in

October 2012

October overall

hotel occupancy

rate for 2012

Week-Day hotel

occupancy rate

(Sun through

Thurs) for

October 2012

Week-End hotel

occupancy rate

(Fri & Sat) for

October 2012

Average change

in no. of hotel

room nights

sold for October

last 3 yrs.

Forecast for

change in Oct.

2013 hotel room

nights sold over

Oct. 2012

Region 1

Cherokee, Clay,

Graham & Macon

counties

30,492 67.3% 59.6% 89.6% +3.5% +2.1%

Region 2

Haywood,

Jackson,

Transylvania &

Swain counties

126,462 68.6% 60.4% 91.9% +4.0% +3.5%

Region 3

Avery, Ashe,

Wilkes, Alleghany,

Caldwell &

Watauga counties

69,931 61.8% 54.3% 83.5% +2.4% +1.8%

Region 4

Yancey, Mitchell,

Madison,

McDowell & Burke

counties

26,275 63.0% 55.8% 83.6% +4.4% +3.0%

Region 5

Buncombe &

Henderson

counties

176,865 78.5% 72.4% 96.0% +3.6% +3.5%

Executive Summary: October Travel Trends & Tourism Forecast for 2013 October



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October 2012 Week-Day vs. Week-End Hotel Occupancy Rate for Western North Carolina

59.6%

60.4%

54.3%

55.8%

72.4%

89.6%

91.9%

83.5%

83.6%

96.0%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Region 1

Region 2

Region 3

Region 4

Region 5

Source: Smith Travel Research & Dr. Steve Morse, Western Carolina University

Week-EndWeek-Day

Week-Day

Week-Day

Week-Day

Week-Day

Week-End

Week-End

Week-End

Week-End

Note: Week-Day includes Sunday through ThursdayWeek-End includes Friday and Saturday



Pg. 7

Region 1: October Fall Foliage Travel Trends: Cherokee, Clay, Graham & Macon Counties, NC

Region 1: No. Hotel Rooms Sold in Cherokee, Clay, Graham & Macon Counties, 2012

11,020

12,847 18,085

18,561

24,407

27,247

28,985

25,493

23,834

30,492

16,871

13,657

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000


No. Room Nights Sold

In an average month in 2012, there were 20,958 room nights sold in Region 1

20,958

Region 1: Hotel Occupancy Rate Percent for Cherokee, Clay, Graham & Macon

Counties, 2012

26.2%

33.9%

42.3% 43.9%53.9%

62.2% 64.0%

56.3% 54.4%

67.3%

39.9%

31.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Occupancy RateOcc. Rate for year 2012 was 48.5% for Region 1

48.5%

Region 1: October 2012 Week-Day vs. Week-End Hotel Occupancy Rate

59.6%

89.6%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Week-Day Week-End


Occupancy Rate


Region 1 Summary & Forecast for 2013

October ranks as the highest of all 12 months of the year

for both hotel rooms nights sold (30,492), and October

overall hotel occupancy rate (67.3%) in Region 1.

Hotel occupancy rates are highest on week-ends at

89.6% (Fri & Sat), than the week-day occupancy rate of

59.6% (Sunday through Thursday) in Region 1.

Forecast: The forecast for 2013 October travel demand

is for a 2.1% increase in travel demand and hotel rooms

nights sold over October 2012 based on these factors:

past October growth trends, stable and slightly falling gas

prices, stable hotel rates, favorable weather conditions,

popular festivals & events in Region 1.

Source for hotel data: Smith Travel Research, Hendersonville, TN

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Region 2: October Fall Foliage Travel Trends: Haywood, Jackson, Transylvania & Swain Counties, NC

Region 2: No. Hotel Rooms Sold in Jackson, Haywood, Transylvania & Swain Counties, 2012

46,996 51,964

70,951 82,279

97,817

116,073

124,818

109,699 101,677

126,462

73,141

61,637

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000


No. Rooms Nights Sold


88,626

Region 2: Hotel Occupancy Rate Percent for Jackson, Haywood, Transylvania & Swain Counties, 2012

29.8%

36.5%

43.6%

46.8%53.0%

65.0% 67.6%

59.5% 56.9%

68.6%

44.4%39.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%



51.5%


60.4%

91.9%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Week-Day Week-End


Occupancy Rate














popular festivals and events in Region 2..


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Region 3: October Fall Foliage Travel Trends: Avery, Ashe, Wilkes, Alleghany, Caldwell, Watauga Counties, NC

Region 3: No. Hotel Rooms Sold in Avery, Ashe, Wilkes, Alleghany, Caldwell, & Watauga Counties,

2012

39,971

42,144

49,992 54,158

59,211

66,671 68,276

64,966

57,973

69,131

45,750

42,196

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000




55,036

Region 3: Hotel Occupancy Rate Percent for Avery, Ashe, Wilkes, Alleghany, Caldwell, &

Watauga Counties, 2012

38.0%

44.4%47.5%

50.7%53.0%

61.6% 61.1%58.1%

53.6%

61.8%

43.4%39.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%



51.3%


54.3%

83.5%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Week-Day Week-End


Occupancy Rate











nights sold based on these factors: past October growth

trends, stable and slightly falling gas prices, stable hotel

rates, favorable weather conditions, popular festivals &

events in Region 3.


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Region 4: October Fall Foliage Travel Trends: Yancey, Mitchell, Madison & McDowell Counties, NC

Region 4: No. Hotel Rooms Sold in Yancey, Mitchell,

Madison, McDowell & Burke Counties, 2012

12,249

12,666

17,599 18,259

19,691

22,841 23,699

21,673

20,726

26,275

17,119

13,578

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000




18,864

Region 4: Hotel Occupancy Rate Percent for Yancey, Mitchell, Madison, McDowell & Burke

Counties, 2012

32.4%37.1%

46.6% 45.3% 47.2%

56.6% 56.8%

52.0% 51.4%

63.0%

42.4%

35.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%



47.5%


55.8%

83.6%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Week-Day Week-End


Occupancy Rate





overall hotel occupancy rate (63%) in Region 4.











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Region 5: October Fall Foliage Travel Trends: Buncombe & Henderson Counties, NC


72.4%

96.0%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

Week-Day Week-End


Occupancy Rate


Region 5: No. Hotel Rooms Sold in Buncombe & Henderson Counties, 2012

80,891

93,568 127,624

137,327

148,718 160,521

167,925

156,488

149,791

176,865

136,248 132,279

-

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

180,000




139,020

Region 5: Hotel Occupancy Rate Percent for Buncombe & Henderson Counties, 2012

36.4%

46.7%

57.5% 64.1%67.2%

75.0%75.9%

69.6% 68.9%

78.5%

62.5% 58.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%



63.5%















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October Fall Foliage Season Travel Trends & 2013 - steve-morse…€¦ · Pg. C O L L E G E O F B U S I N E S S October Fall Foliage Season Travel Trends & 2013 October Tourism Forecast