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October 16, 2009
RPG Meeting
ERCOT RPG Project Review Update
Jeff Billo
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 2
RPG Project Review Update
• Recommendation Letter sent for:
– CenterPoint Garrott-Midtown-Polk Upgrade Project (Tier 3)
– CenterPoint 2012 Northwest Houston Reliability Project (Tier 2)
• ERCOT Independent Review nearly complete for:
– AEPSC Corpus Christi Improvements (Tier 1)
• Comment period in process for:
– Brazos Electric Kruegerville-Frisco (Tier 3)
• ERCOT Independent Review in process for:
– Sharyland ERCOT Southeast Loop (Tier 1) [part of 2009 5YTP]
– CenterPoint North-Houston Constraint Mitigation Project (Tier 1) [part of 2009 5YTP]
– Oncor Lamesa Area Upgrades (Tier 1) [part of 2009 5YTP]
– Luminant Energy Comanche Peak Congestion Mitigation (Tier 2)
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 3
RPG Project Review Update
• Other projects under review
– Oncor Comanche Peak 3 and 4 Additions Project (Tier 1)• ERCOT Independent Review will be completed after 2009 5YTP
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 4
Northwest Houston Reliability Project
CenterPoint Energy Northwest Houston Reliability Project
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 5
Northwest Houston Reliability Project
• CenterPoint Energy proposed the Northwest Houston Reliability Project to resolve reliability problems in the area due to expected load growth
• Original proposed in-service date was 2012
• New load forecasts show lower load predictions through 2014
Model/Case
2012 Updated
December 2007
2012 Updated
June 2009
2013 Updated
June 2009
2014 Updated
June 2009
Area Load (MW)
2443.35 2105.85 2162.96 2220.07
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 6
Northwest Houston Reliability Project
• ERCOT Independent Review (using June 2009 SSWG base cases) showed no reliability problems in the area in 2012 and 2013
• 2014 analysis revealed the need for the following upgrades to relieve post-contingency overloads (Option 1):– Install a new 345/138 kV 800 MVA autotransformer at T.H. Wharton in
parallel with the existing 800 MVA autotransformer # 1
– Convert Klein substation to a breaker substation and build a new 138 kV circuit from T.H. Wharton to Klein
– Reconductor circuit 76 Cy-Fair to Kluge
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 7
Northwest Houston Reliability Project Option 1
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 8
Northwest Houston Reliability Project
• As an alternative ERCOT tested a modified version of CenterPoint Energy’s preferred solution (Option 2):– Expand 345 kV Zenith to 345/138 kV substation and install a new 345/138
kV 800/1000 MVA autotransformer
– Build a new 138 kV double circuit from the new 138 kV Zenith substation to Gertie Row and connect to existing 138 kV double circuits to Gertie
– Reconfigure the existing 138 kV circuit 76 from Kluge to Addicks and circuit 21 from Kluge to Camron to create three new 138 kV circuits: circuit 1 from Zenith to Addicks, circuit 2 from Zenith to Kluge and circuit 21 from Kluge to Camron
– Reconductor circuit 2 Cy-Fair to Kluge
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 9
Northwest Houston Reliability Project Option 2
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 10
Northwest Houston Reliability Project
• Both options solved reliability problems in 2014• Cost
– Option 1 = $25.3 million– Option 2 = $25.5 million
• No congestion in area: projects did not create or relieve any congestion• Option 2 provides new 345 kV to 138 kV injection point• Option 2 alleviates the loss of 400 MW of load due to single tower
(double circuit) contingency• CenterPoint Energy’s analysis revealed that with future load growth
Option 2 will require fewer upgrades in the long run• ERCOT recommended Option 2 as the preferred solution
– Recommended 2014 but could be 2013 if load growth increases sooner
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 11
2009 Houston Import Study
Houston Import Study
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 12
2009 Houston Import Study
• Why are we studying this?
– ERCOT Independent Review of Sharyland’s ERCOT Southeast Loop RPG Project (Tier 1)
– ERCOT 2009 Five-Year Transmission Plan Economic Analysis
– Ongoing congestion in real-time
– ERCOT Independent Review of Centerpoint’s North to Houston Constraint Mitigation RPG Project (Tier 1)
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 13
2009 Houston Import Study Assumptions
• Study Assumptions
– Base case = 2009 5YTP 2014 Economic Start Case• Includes all 2009 5YTP reliability projects identified for 2014
• Includes all CREZ transmission facilities
• Does not include additional CREZ generation
– Analysis will focus on economic benefit of additional import capacity into Houston area per ERCOT RPG Charter and Procedures Section 3.3
• UPLAN
• Assumed load can be served reliably without additional import capability, but additional import project may allow reliability criteria to be met at a lower overall cost
– Interface limits used as proxy for voltage stability limits
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 14
2009 Houston Import Study
• Approach
Base CaseBase Case BC + CREZ Generation
BC + CREZ Generation
BC + STP 3 & 4
BC + STP 3 & 4
BC + New Gas Gen North of Houston
BC + New Gas Gen North of Houston
BC + New Gas Gen In
Houston
BC + New Gas Gen In
Houston
BC + Load Variation
BC + Load Variation
BC + Comanche Peak 3 & 4
BC + Comanche Peak 3 & 4
Bulk of analysis will focus on the base case. Options may be eliminated at this
stage.
Alternate scenarios will be used to quantify relative merit of options
that pass first stage. Final recommendation will be selected.
Sensitivity scenarios will be run for recommended option and results added to report.
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 15
2009 Houston Import Study Options
1 Lufkin-Canal 345-kV double circuit
2 Salem-Zenith 345-kV double circuit
3 Fayetteville-Zenith 345-kV double circuit
3A Fayetteville-Zenith 345-kV double circuit w/ 30% series comp
4 Gibbons Creek-Zenith 345-kV double circuit
6 Fayetteville-Obrien 345-kV double circuit
6A Fayetteville-Obrien 345-kV double circuit w/ 30% series comp
9 Gibbons Creek-Salem-Zenith 345-kV double circuit
12 Gibbons Creek-Salem/ Fayetteville-Zenith 345-kV double circuit
19 Add series comp to existing Hillje-WAP and Hillje-Holman 345-kV
22 Fayetteville-Zenith 345-kV double circuit w/ 50% series comp
24 Option 19 + Option 22
J1 Sandow-Zenith 345-kV double circuit
J1A Sandow-Zenith 345-kV double circuit w/ 30% series comp
J2 Marion-Holman-Obrien 345-kV double circuit
J3 Hillje-Obrien 345-kV double circuit
DC Brown-Zenith 3000 MW HVDC line
E1 Twin Oaks-Salem-Zenith 345-kV double circuit
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 16
2009 Houston Import Study Options
To BrownOption 1Option 2Option 3/ 3A/ 22Option 4Option 6/ 6AOption 9Option 12Option 19Option J1/ J1AOption J2Option J3Option DCOption E1
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 17
2009 Houston Import Study
• Initial findings– Initial results indicated little savings until other 5YTP upgrades
implemented
– Upgrading/ adding import paths into Houston from the south did not produce significant savings
• Options 19, 24, and J3 are no longer being considered
– Adding import paths into Houston from the north and/ or west revealed significant production cost savings but not enough to justify the cost of the project using the societal benefit test
• However, some did produce enough energy revenue (consumer benefit) savings to justify the cost of project
– Per ERCOT RPG Charter and Procedures Section 3.3
– Relaxing N-H and S-H voltage constraints generally increased the production cost and energy revenue savings
• Comments?
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 18
Savings with voltage constraints (preliminary)
OptionsTotal Cost ($
million)
Savings Needed ($
million)PC Savings ($
million)
Energy Revenue
Savings ($ million)
1 429 71.50 20.56 44.06
2 258 43.00 1.28 47.03
3 222 37.00 -4.38 55.54
3A 241 40.17 7.00 64.08
4 226 37.67 12.34 -27.96
6 244 40.67 10.81 22.52
6A 263 43.83 17.44 15.77
9 380 63.33 5.25 41.48
12 370 61.67 12.80 65.17
22 241 40.17 2.04 66.23
J1 359 59.80 11.79 23.40
J1A 378 63.00 18.73 26.35
J2 390 65.00 15.39 24.56
E1 462 77.00 19.23 31.10
DC n/a n/a n/a n/a
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 19
Savings without voltage constraints (preliminary)
OptionsTotal Cost ($
million)
Savings Needed ($
million)PC Savings ($
million)
Energy Revenue
Savings ($ million)
1 429 71.50 22.25 71.56
2 258 43.00 7.07 56.73
3 222 37.00 12.13 45.35
3A 241 40.17 19.59 79.86
4 226 37.67 12.36 -14.02
6 244 40.67 16.79 47.41
6A 263 43.83 11.08 52.8
9 380 63.33 12.41 86.23
12 370 61.67 16.91 89.45
22 241 40.17 17.75 78.7
J1 359 59.80 16.99 47.28
J1A 378 63.00 20.33 75.94
J2 390 65.00 17.78 77.41
E1 462 77.00 17.5 90.19
DC n/a n/a n/a n/a
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 20
2009 Houston Import Study
• Issues for comment
– Is it appropriate to apply voltage stability constraints to 2014 case?
– How should Category D contingency of Zenith substation outage be considered?
– Which options can be dropped from further analysis based on the Base Case production cost savings or energy revenue savings?
• Next Steps
– Finalize base case analysis
– Test options that pass first step in alternate scenarios
RPG Meeting October 16, 2009 21
Questions?